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S-400: Pakistan Faces Major Asymmetric Threat

If Turkey gets S-400, then the learning curve will be extended to HISAR-U!!! Charity begins at home!!! Couple it with KORAL EW to jam/deceive signals from S-400!!! Now, you have a system with less susceptibility to jamming...

This is certainly a blessing, as two of Pakistan's real allies and brothers (China and Turkey) will also possess S-400 so we can learn a lot about this system from them. This S-400 certainly posse a big challenge for Pakistan, but it is not the end of the world and eventually, counter strategies will be developed over time. For the future Pakistan should learn from Turkey and try to learn from HISAR-U system.
 
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S400 is an over-hyped DEFENSIVE weapon system. Defensive weapons don't pose any threats to the country's security. They do however pose a great threat to your invading jets, but then they will not cover the whole of india and there are ways to counter them.

S-400: Pakistan Faces Major Asymmetric Threat
Oct 11 2018 - By Ejaz Haider

The Prime Minister of Pakistan needs to convene an emergency NCA meeting to discuss the threat and work out responses

India, eyeing the Russian S-400 Triumf long-range, anti-aircraft system since 2015, has finally signed a $5.4-billion deal for the system. The purchase has sharply increased the conventional military asymmetry in South Asia and is a major threat to Pakistan.

With the deal inked during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi last week, by most assessments, India should begin getting its S-400s from 2020, having ordered five squadrons of the export version.

The S-400 is capable of tracking and destroying aircraft, including drones, at long range, much before any hostile aircraft enter the user’s airspace and can also target incoming ballistic and cruise missiles.

According to data available through Russian open sources, picked up by military analysts, the S-400 integrates a multifunction radar with autonomous detection and targeting systems, four types of missiles, launchers and a command and control centre.

It is also reportedly effective against aircraft and missiles flying “off the deck”.

Strangely, we have not heard anything from the government of Pakistan on the deal or its ramifications. The media in Pakistan has also remained silent for the most part.

Indian pre- and post-deal assertions that the system is meant for air defence against China are largely a red herring. While New Delhi will deploy the system to cover its airspace towards China, its primary, hot use would be against Pakistan.

Beijing already has the S-400, and while there are border tensions between India and China—they had a near-three-month standoff at Doklam in 2017—neither side showed any appetite for escalation.

This is not the case with Pakistan. India has long sought to punish Pakistan just short of Islamabad’s nuclear red lines but has not been able to figure out how.

Since the Kargil conflict in 1999, India has been working on a limited war option. During the Twin Peaks crisis, generally referred to as the 2001-02 standoff, India also realized that its longer interior lines make mobilization cumbersome. Pakistan completed its mobilization much quicker, given its shorter lines.

The result: India began working on what came to be known as the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD).

The CSD envisaged forward-located Independent Battle Groups (IBGs), each with its offensive and support arms, integrating air and ground assets for a short, sharp strike against targets not too deep in Pakistan. Once again, the idea was premised on the assumption that Pakistan would not resort to using its nuclear option first and early into the conflict.

The doctrine has since been rechristened Pro-active Operations (POAs). It is generally accepted on both sides that a narrow band does exist for a limited conflict. On its part, Pakistan plugged the gap with the Nasr, a short-range missile which can carry nuclear warheads. Whether Nasr has been or can be effective is another debate and the putative arrival in South Asia of the S-400 makes that debate largely irrelevant.

So far India, despite conducting exercises to validate PAOs, has gaps in its capability to conduct operations with speed, coordination and accuracy. This is notwithstanding claims about having conducted a surgical strike along the Line of Control.

How does the S-400 fit into this scenario?

As noted, there’s no comparable system in the world right now. The U.S. Theater High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) or the Patriot fall much short of what S-400 can deliver. Its efficacy against aircraft is proven.

The only warplane considered capable of surviving against the S-400 is the U.S. F-22 Raptor, and in an operational environment, even that aircraft has to use its full range of countermeasures to evade the S-400’s radar and missiles.

And while it is still dogged by problems, the F-35 is another aircraft whose stealth capabilities could possibly overwhelm the S-400.

Some experts, however, have assessed that the S-400s acquisition radars are designed to defeat modern stealth aircraft like the F-22 and F-35.

Other warplanes, going by what experts have determined, stand little chance against the Triumf.

There are ways to counter it, and the Pakistan Air Force is very likely going to work on what it can and must do, but one thing is obvious: the induction of the S-400 in the Indian arsenal will force the PAF to rethink its operational strategies in a major way: low flying, finding bands not covered by the S-400 radars, the possibility of jamming the radars, rethinking targeting strategies etc.

That could prove difficult, based on what Stephen Bryen wrote about one of the S-400’s missiles in The National Interest in January 2018:

“The 9M96E2 is one of the jewels of the S-400 system. It flies at Mach 15 (around 5,000 meters per second or 18,500 kph), it can engage targets as low as 5 meters off the ground, and it can manoeuvre pulling up to 20Gs.”

Missiles still have a better chance of overwhelming the S-400 if the targeting strategy relies on greater numbers, including decoys. Similarly, the air-breathing cruise missiles are notoriously difficult to intercept because of their nape of the earth flight paths and terrain guidance, among other capabilities.

We don’t know exactly how watered down the export version is compared with the system operated by Russia. During the Soviet era, the practice was simple: even Warsaw Pact states were exported the less-capable versions of military systems and platforms. There is reason to believe that S-400’s export version will lack some cutting-edge features.

Even so, its presence next-door should begin to worry Pakistan’s military planners terribly.

The interesting bit, however, is the debate in the United States, which has been cleverly guided away from the consequences of the imbalance the deal has created and towards whether and how India could get an exemption from the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

According to a Washington Post report, the U.S. embassy in New Delhi has stated that the “intent of the U.S. sanctions law is ‘to impose costs on Russia for its malign behavior,’ not to ‘impose damage to the military capabilities of our allies or partners,’” going on to say that there are “‘strict criteria’ for receiving waivers from sanctions, and they will be considered on a ‘transaction-by-transaction basis’.”

When asked about whether the U.S. will punish India for the purchase through CAATSA, President Donald Trump—who has the power to grant India a sanctions waiver—did not offer much detail, saying: “India is going to find out. Sooner than you think.”

Some analysts, notably Ashley Tellis at the Carnegie Endowment, have pushed the line that while India and the U.S. are strategic partners, India “cannot be put in a position where, in effect, Washington decides what kind of relationship they have with these other countries [Iran, China].”

“That’s where Delhi will draw a bright red line.”

In other words, the U.S. will have to weigh the cost of sanctioning India against the benefits of having India in its camp against China, while New Delhi plays in the space it has because of Washington’s dilemma.

Smart move, for sure, but one that reduces space for U.S. brokering in a crisis. What is not being discussed is the imbalance the S-400’s induction will create and Pakistan’s possible responses.

The development of ballistic missiles with multiple independent warheads, or re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), will become imperative for Pakistan. Submarine-based assets will be another response, as well as the improvement of cruise missile capabilities.

In addition, and most importantly, Pakistan will have to rethink numbers to create redundancies. The current state of non-deployment of nuclear assets and keeping a distance between warheads and delivery systems will also have to be rethought.

South Asia, already crisis-prone, will get closer to the trigger, not away from it, with the arrival of the S-400. The nuclear threshold, already low, will drop even lower and this development will throw the region in a spiraling arms race. Result: increasing instability.

This is an issue on which Prime Minister Imran Khan needs to convene an urgent National Command Authority meeting to discuss the ramification and possible responses, diplomatic and military, the latter from Pakistan’s service chiefs and strategic commands.

The country’s economy is in bad shape and finding money for some of these responses will not be easy. It is precisely for this reason that the government needs to think hard and fast about measures to address this new threat. Non-military, non-kinetic responses are important and Pakistan should continue to pursue them, but they must be backed by robust kinetic capabilities.

Finally, here is a quick scenario with the S-400 deployed by India to give Islamabad some idea of the threat level. It may not come to pass, but it lays bare the threat Pakistan now faces:

India suffers what it claims is a militant attack on its soil and blames Pakistan. Jingoistic TV channels—the Studio Corps of the Indian army—rant and rage against Pakistan, and New Delhi promises a robust response, creating a commitment trap.

Before the S-400, it was enough to claim a surgical strike in Pakistani territory and back it with grainy, doctored footage. With the new system, there is an option to strike targets well inside Pakistan, not just across the Line of Control in Kashmir.

The Indian Air Force will look for air supremacy. With the S-400’s ability to take out early-warning and control platforms, it blinds the PAF. And its four different types of interceptor missiles take out Pakistani fighters. Indian warplanes hit their targets in Pakistan and return.

The decision to use nuclear weapons will be Pakistan’s but, as anyone who knows nuclear strategy 101, that is not a position a state wants to be in.

http://newsweekpakistan.com/s-400-pakistan-faces-major-asymmetric-threat/
 
the level of IQ and debate on this forum is appalling, little kids running around ( from both sides ) and crying ' my weener is bigger ' on top of their voices,

has any one even attempted to read about the s 400 and the geo politics behind it?




------------------------------------------

what is the s 400 :-

in essence, a deep modernization of the s 300PMU . think of it like the T 90 ( vs the T 72 ) . same tank , better armor, new optics and guns , new ERA , nothing revolutionary though . the Russians are known to pull such marketing.

technical material is abound on the internet regarding the s 400 , esp karlo copp from ausairpower.com . i wont touch the nitty gritty , yet , the S 400 is one potent system . a combination of very powerful scan and pencil beam radars, ( track and acquire ) , and very powerful missiles + mobility on wheels make this a game changer silver spoon in any geo political conflict .

to put in a comparison, lets compare the s 400 with a system like crotale / HQ 2 which we have;-

the crotale is like a medium built athlete with a javelin, the medium body man can only 'hurl' that javelin to a certain height before gravity catches it .

the s 400 is like a GIANT with a huge bow and arrow. his shots are much more kinetic ( and longer range ) .
and yes, he can do that simultaneously for a dozen targets

----------------------------------

implication for pak :-


india already had the S 300 so this wont be rattling the PAF much , though S 400 missile is much longer range ( and potent )

although the system is mobile, we have seen the s 400 deployed mostly on 'sentry' duties in fixed emplacements / berms ( eg syria etc ) . my take is, indians would deploy them in rear areas on strategic bases like pathankot or even behind ( covering New delhi , mumbai ) to fend off a ballistic missile strike from pak .

make no mistake, where ever s 400 was deployed, nato dared not venture close

this also takes us to another conclusion that the deployment of such systems is now increasing making regular conflicts a thing of the past and intelligent nations are now switching to more 'irregular' modes of conflicts aka hybrid warfare. for the cost of one s 400 battery , indians could have trained an entire division of irregulars who could have created mayham in balochistan, the s 400 on the other hand, would hopefully , sit on a berm and the crew would relax all day never firing a shot sans training rounds .

gun for a gun, indians would hope to drag pakistan in a 'weiner is bigger' arms race ( knowing the state of our economy ) , while i hope that GHQ is sane enough to realize the folly of such a thing and look for ' alternatives' to pin indians down elsewhere,


----------------------------------------------------
DCS simulation, how an attack on a s 300 would play out

 
if the risk is increased then the threshold is reduced, it's elementary.

No. The threshold is the same, it's only the chance of India crossing the threshold has increased.

Pakistan's threshold is ridiculous, so there is no need to further lower it. If Pakistan messes around with their threshold, then so will India. And if India messes around with their threshold, then Pakistan will completely lose its nuclear narrative.

the level of IQ and debate on this forum is appalling, little kids running around ( from both sides ) and crying ' my weener is bigger ' on top of their voices,

has any one even attempted to read about the s 400 and the geo politics behind it?




------------------------------------------

what is the s 400 :-

in essence, a deep modernization of the s 300PMU . think of it like the T 90 ( vs the T 72 ) . same tank , better armor, new optics and guns , new ERA , nothing revolutionary though . the Russians are known to pull such marketing.

technical material is abound on the internet regarding the s 400 , esp karlo copp from ausairpower.com . i wont touch the nitty gritty , yet , the S 400 is one potent system . a combination of very powerful scan and pencil beam radars, ( track and acquire ) , and very powerful missiles + mobility on wheels make this a game changer silver spoon in any geo political conflict .

to put in a comparison, lets compare the s 400 with a system like crotale / HQ 2 which we have;-

the crotale is like a medium built athlete with a javelin, the medium body man can only 'hurl' that javelin to a certain height before gravity catches it .

the s 400 is like a GIANT with a huge bow and arrow. his shots are much more kinetic ( and longer range ) .
and yes, he can do that simultaneously for a dozen targets

----------------------------------

implication for pak :-


india already had the S 300 so this wont be rattling the PAF much , though S 400 missile is much longer range ( and potent )

although the system is mobile, we have seen the s 400 deployed mostly on 'sentry' duties in fixed emplacements / berms ( eg syria etc ) . my take is, indians would deploy them in rear areas on strategic bases like pathankot or even behind ( covering New delhi , mumbai ) to fend off a ballistic missile strike from pak .

make no mistake, where ever s 400 was deployed, nato dared not venture close

this also takes us to another conclusion that the deployment of such systems is now increasing making regular conflicts a thing of the past and intelligent nations are now switching to more 'irregular' modes of conflicts aka hybrid warfare. for the cost of one s 400 battery , indians could have trained an entire division of irregulars who could have created mayham in balochistan, the s 400 on the other hand, would hopefully , sit on a berm and the crew would relax all day never firing a shot sans training rounds .

gun for a gun, indians would hope to drag pakistan in a 'weiner is bigger' arms race ( knowing the state of our economy ) , while i hope that GHQ is sane enough to realize the folly of such a thing and look for ' alternatives' to pin indians down elsewhere,


----------------------------------------------------
DCS simulation, how an attack on a s 300 would play out


India doesn't operate S-300 SAMs though. Only the radars.
 
No. The threshold is the same, it's only the chance of India crossing the threshold has increased.

Pakistan's threshold is ridiculous, so there is no need to further lower it. If Pakistan messes around with their threshold, then so will India. And if India messes around with their threshold, then Pakistan will completely lose its nuclear narrative.



India doesn't operate S-300 SAMs though. Only the radars.

Carry on, dice with death, your choice Indian : live in peace or die in war.
 
China and Turkey will get the S400's before India and Pak can learn
alot from our allies.
Another weapon Pak should focus on is the ElectroMagnetic Pulse
weapon.
 
Really s400 can detect and destroy f35 then how israeli and allied f16 carrying out 100s of strikes inside syria every week
S400 is just another Russian hoacs like there migs proved agiast f16/15 in Serbian war
I would be worried if USA had given thaad or pac 3 to India but
 
The S-400 poses a real threat to Pakistan when positioned at a 100 km from the the borders area.. it can still cover 300 km of Pakistani air space along the borders, hence denying air support to the ground forces in case of some "cold start doctrine" - like move...
The best answer is the HQ-9 to equalize the odds to some extent.. and mostly to develop a tactical missile in line with the Russian Iskander technology (with unpredictable manoeuvering during flight), with a range of up to 500 km..
 
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Meh, this is mainly for defense and offense on chinese border. We have cheaper and alternatives for the western border which is more than enough. Western neighbour is not a threat for us.
 

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