Wood
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Yes, I believe that Putin has not actually factored all in. He is just another tyrant who has laid a landmine and then stepped on it himself.And you really think that Putin may not have factored it all in? Clearly there is something he is trying to achieve here more than what we know here. Europe is equally in trouble with Russian exports contrary to what the media is saying.
If you go by media reports, Europeans appear like a self-sustaining entity that generate resources out of thin air. Just like how Zelensky is made to appear as if he's 1 Km away from Moscow, yelling and waving his sword as the Russians run away in terror.. The reality is far from it.
Yes, sanctions are a big hit to their economy, but not a Russia destroyer. Azerbaijan, one of the top suppliers of gas and oil signed an alliance pact with Putin just within this week. Qatar put its hands up saying that it can't supply gas at the rates that Russia gives, and Saudi has ruled out pumping more oil, especially at Russian rates.
Ukraine and Russia collectively supply 30% of the world's wheat, most of which goes to the European baking industry. With Ukraine in Russian control, where do you think that would go? Sunflower oil, fruits, berries.. yes, Asia can supplement some of it, but that's already happening. The price for additional demand will be much higher apart from the cost of transporting them. This means you'd be better off getting it rather from Ukraine-and-Russia combo.
Russia exports some of the finest quality of lumber, processed and otherwise for construction, furnishings, etc. Where will the Europeans get it from? Tanzania? Americas? At what price? Did I talk about the tonnes of resources, processed or otherwise, that Russia exports to Europe? Alrosa for example, is the biggest supplier of raw diamonds to De Beers.
CAATSA is applicable only on defense goods; not commercial trade. Other countries will continue trading with Russia for commercial trade. No one would accept to cut all their trade with Russia just to appease one side except the ones that are already integrated into western ecosystem like the Caribbean or the smaller Central & South American economies.
Do you really think that countries like Turkey, us, Indonesia, Thailand, Korea (yes South), entire Africa (growing rapidly), Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, etc., will stop trading with Russia? Come on, man.
There is a bloody reason why Macron is doing his nut to try to negotiate a deal apart from the desire of becoming EU's leader. The Europeans are realistic about trade with Russia and knows that sustaining only on the basis of American support won't work.
The overwhelming majority of Ukrainian citizens have decided to fight against Russia with full commitment. NATO will arm them to the hilt. This will eventually turn into an occupation that is struggling to manage an insurgency. All through it, EU and US will enforce their sanction on Russia. All these countries you've listed will comply with economic sanctions for the most part - including India. EU parliament is looking to move away from Russian energy dependency as a strategic objective now. It will take a few years, but once it materializes - Russia will not be able to balance its book anymore. Putin hopes that this occupation will succeed in weeks and not years; his fanboys will be inclined to think that - not me
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