nangyale
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Russian peace and stabilization intervention in Ukraine: Prospective scenario
2 March 2014, 00:34
The escalating tension brought about by the Ukrainian insurgent "government" has resulted in reciprocal protective measures by the Russian Federation, namely to authorize the use of military units to protect Russian citizens and military (possibly even energy) infrastructure from attack. Considering the geopolitical implications of a Russian peacekeeping intervention in Crimea, which could possibly be extended further into anti-Maidan pro-constitutional Eastern and Southern Ukraine, it is important to conjecture the probable course that such an event could take.
Firstly, everything is contingent on whether or not Russia intervenes. President Putin has the legal authority to mandate military involvement at any time he sees fit, and such a move does not have to occur immediately. The circumstances affecting his decision stem from the fascist revolutionaries’ radicalism.
Svoboda and Pravy Sector represent the most extreme insurgent elements in power in Kiev. The former has called for Ukraine to reacquire nuclear weapons (in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum) and the latter has asked infamous top wanted North Caucasus terrorist Doku Umarov to carry out terrorist attacks against Russia.
The rebel government in Ukraine is not even able to exercise sovereignty within its own borders, as Swedish Neo-Nazi groups have now begun to enter the country for militant training. Judging by this development, more extreme right-wing European groups may use Ukraine as a training ground for future terrorist attacks, much as Afghanistan and Iraq were used by extreme Islamic groups in the past. The unholy alliance between Pravy Sector and Umarov may even result in Syrian-based international jihadists transferring their operations to Ukraine or Russia.
Ukraine is also on the cusp of a humanitarian catastrophe, with over 143,000 Ukrainians having fled to Russia and requested asylum in the past two weeks. It is thus evident that thousands of Ukrainians are scared of the fascist government and the anarchy gripping their country.
The abovementioned reasons provide more than a plausible justification for a Russian peace and stabilization intervention in Ukraine. Should it occur, it may progress in the following way:
Russian units will move into Crimea and possibly Eastern and Southern Ukraine to safeguard Russian citizens and military infrastructure (in the case of Crimea). They will not confront the Ukrainian military unless fired upon and will not move past their zone of deployment unless provoked.
The Ukrainian military (the units that do not desert or mutiny) or Maidan-Nazi irregulars will likely attack Russia's forces, logistics, or citizens, providing a pretext to take the battle to Kiev to oust the coup-making Banderites.
Should the above occur, the US is unable to directly intervene because it has no substantial units in that theater. Instead, it will ‘Lead from Behind’ through a Polish-led NATO push into Western Ukraine to 'meet Russia in the middle', save it what can from its failed fascist fantasy, and will not directly attack Russian forces. This would also serve the dual purpose of de-facto resurrecting the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in Western Ukraine.
If there is an attack on Russian forces, then it is solely because of the Polish going rogue and trying to draw NATO into a larger confrontation (which it will not likely do because it does not have the conventional means deployed nearby to do so). Russian units in Transnistria could then theoretically be moved into Western Ukraine to block such an advance, thereby setting up a dangerous conundrum where Poland may open fire on Russian troops, who would then neutralize them and push them out of Ukraine.
Russian humanitarian intervention in Ukraine, like in Georgia in 2008, would demonstrate that the country has reached the Great Power status that is has aspired to since the end of the Soviet Union. Additionally, it would also be a large step forward in regards to the creation of the multipolar world order.
Andrew Korybko
2 March 2014, 00:34
The escalating tension brought about by the Ukrainian insurgent "government" has resulted in reciprocal protective measures by the Russian Federation, namely to authorize the use of military units to protect Russian citizens and military (possibly even energy) infrastructure from attack. Considering the geopolitical implications of a Russian peacekeeping intervention in Crimea, which could possibly be extended further into anti-Maidan pro-constitutional Eastern and Southern Ukraine, it is important to conjecture the probable course that such an event could take.
Firstly, everything is contingent on whether or not Russia intervenes. President Putin has the legal authority to mandate military involvement at any time he sees fit, and such a move does not have to occur immediately. The circumstances affecting his decision stem from the fascist revolutionaries’ radicalism.
Svoboda and Pravy Sector represent the most extreme insurgent elements in power in Kiev. The former has called for Ukraine to reacquire nuclear weapons (in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum) and the latter has asked infamous top wanted North Caucasus terrorist Doku Umarov to carry out terrorist attacks against Russia.
The rebel government in Ukraine is not even able to exercise sovereignty within its own borders, as Swedish Neo-Nazi groups have now begun to enter the country for militant training. Judging by this development, more extreme right-wing European groups may use Ukraine as a training ground for future terrorist attacks, much as Afghanistan and Iraq were used by extreme Islamic groups in the past. The unholy alliance between Pravy Sector and Umarov may even result in Syrian-based international jihadists transferring their operations to Ukraine or Russia.
Ukraine is also on the cusp of a humanitarian catastrophe, with over 143,000 Ukrainians having fled to Russia and requested asylum in the past two weeks. It is thus evident that thousands of Ukrainians are scared of the fascist government and the anarchy gripping their country.
The abovementioned reasons provide more than a plausible justification for a Russian peace and stabilization intervention in Ukraine. Should it occur, it may progress in the following way:
Russian units will move into Crimea and possibly Eastern and Southern Ukraine to safeguard Russian citizens and military infrastructure (in the case of Crimea). They will not confront the Ukrainian military unless fired upon and will not move past their zone of deployment unless provoked.
The Ukrainian military (the units that do not desert or mutiny) or Maidan-Nazi irregulars will likely attack Russia's forces, logistics, or citizens, providing a pretext to take the battle to Kiev to oust the coup-making Banderites.
Should the above occur, the US is unable to directly intervene because it has no substantial units in that theater. Instead, it will ‘Lead from Behind’ through a Polish-led NATO push into Western Ukraine to 'meet Russia in the middle', save it what can from its failed fascist fantasy, and will not directly attack Russian forces. This would also serve the dual purpose of de-facto resurrecting the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in Western Ukraine.
If there is an attack on Russian forces, then it is solely because of the Polish going rogue and trying to draw NATO into a larger confrontation (which it will not likely do because it does not have the conventional means deployed nearby to do so). Russian units in Transnistria could then theoretically be moved into Western Ukraine to block such an advance, thereby setting up a dangerous conundrum where Poland may open fire on Russian troops, who would then neutralize them and push them out of Ukraine.
Russian humanitarian intervention in Ukraine, like in Georgia in 2008, would demonstrate that the country has reached the Great Power status that is has aspired to since the end of the Soviet Union. Additionally, it would also be a large step forward in regards to the creation of the multipolar world order.
Andrew Korybko
