Russia is on Track to Record Natural Population Growth in 2012

[Arzamas 16]

Rosstat just released its latest batch of demographic indicators, and the “dying bear”would appear to have a little fight left in it. Compared to the analagous January-July period of 2011, the birth rate increased by 6.7%, the death rate decreased by 2.9%, and the rate of natural population loss plummeted by 60% (from 138,000 in 2011 to just 57,000 in 2012). These trends are in keeping with the broadly positive ones that have been visible over the past eight years.

Russian demographics have now improved to the point that if the trends of the first half of 2012 hold for the rest of the year, that is if the birth rate for the whole year increases by around 6.7% and the death rate for the whole year decreases by around 2.9%, then Russia will actually record a small natural increase in population. The following graph shows how dramatic this turnaround is when compared with the country’s recent demographic trajectory:

Now Russia’s death rate is still way too high, and there’s absolutely no reason for a country with Russia’s level of wealth and education to have a mortality rate so elevated. Much more progress can be made if better policies are implemented and if the authorities make health a greater priority: an effective and well-funded health system should be able to reduce Russia’s still-high death rate by anywhere from 20-30%. Likewise, Russia’s birthrate is still significantly lower than it was in the mid to late 1980′s, when many of the people now entering prime child-bearing age were born, and it will need to keep increasing if the country is to avoid potentially crippling shortages of workers decades down the line. But when you compare Russia’s demographic performance over the past several years to the apocalyptic forecasts that were, and are, routinely made about it, you have to admit that it has consistently surprised on the upside.

I’ve been reading about Russian health and demographics for quite a few years now, and I feel quite confident in saying that if I had stood up back in 2005 (a year during which Russia naturally shrank by over 840,000) and said “in 2012 the Russian population will grow naturally” I would have immediately been dragged off to an insane asylum. Russia’s recent demographic improvements do not mean that it is poised to run roughshod over its neighbors, or that it is going to present any kind of threat to Europe or the United States. They do strongly suggest, however, that narratives about endless Russian decline, decay, and collapse need to be urgently revisited and revised.

While Putinism is not in any way “justified” by the demographic improvements that have taken place over the past eight years, I’ve repeatedly argued that representative government is an intrinsic good and not part of a utilitarian calculus, the fact that Russians are living longer and having more children ought to factor in to how we view the place. Or to put it differently: while Americans might think that Putinism is the worst thing ever, judging by their behavior Russians have a somewhat different view.


Russia is on Track to Record Natural Population Growth in 2012 - Forbes


When it comes to Russian demographics, China state media is far more accurate than the West so called "free press"

 

[Icecreamcart]

Doesn't Russia want increased population growth and less migration from the Far East?

It would be an issue in the next few decades with the increasing population disparity between the Chinese and Russian borders.

 

[senheiser]

Doesn't Russia want increased population growth and less migration from the Far East?

It would be an issue in the next few decades with the increasing population disparity between the Chinese and Russian borders.

china dies out faster especially hongkong

 

[Meengla]

Russians are proud inheritors of a great culture, including the good and bad from the Soviet era. It will be very sad to see them contained into a few urban centers with vibrancy while vodka consumes up much else to early death.
I remember once Pat Buchannan said about Russia on a tv show: "Russia is going to disappear as a nation soon and will be gobbled up China and other neighbors" (paraphrased); I think he was talking about lower life expectancy, low population growth. That was about 4-5 years ago.
I hope it is different now.

 

[Plexyre]

Doesn't Russia want increased population growth and less migration from the Far East?

It would be an issue in the next few decades with the increasing population disparity between the Chinese and Russian borders.

I think most of those fears about China/East Asia colonizing Siberia/RFE is just domestic politics. There are less Chinese in those areas than there were a decade ago, not to mention the fact that as wages are continually back home, its Russian migrants in RFE who are increasingly crossing the border to look for work

Anyway best of luck to the Russians stabilizing their population

 

[Tshering22]

Rosstat just released its latest batch of demographic indicators, and the “dying bear”would appear to have a little fight left in it. Compared to the analagous January-July period of 2011, the birth rate increased by 6.7%, the death rate decreased by 2.9%, and the rate of natural population loss plummeted by 60% (from 138,000 in 2011 to just 57,000 in 2012). These trends are in keeping with the broadly positive ones that have been visible over the past eight years.

Russian demographics have now improved to the point that if the trends of the first half of 2012 hold for the rest of the year, that is if the birth rate for the whole year increases by around 6.7% and the death rate for the whole year decreases by around 2.9%, then Russia will actually record a small natural increase in population. The following graph shows how dramatic this turnaround is when compared with the country’s recent demographic trajectory:

Now Russia’s death rate is still way too high, and there’s absolutely no reason for a country with Russia’s level of wealth and education to have a mortality rate so elevated. Much more progress can be made if better policies are implemented and if the authorities make health a greater priority: an effective and well-funded health system should be able to reduce Russia’s still-high death rate by anywhere from 20-30%. Likewise, Russia’s birthrate is still significantly lower than it was in the mid to late 1980′s, when many of the people now entering prime child-bearing age were born, and it will need to keep increasing if the country is to avoid potentially crippling shortages of workers decades down the line. But when you compare Russia’s demographic performance over the past several years to the apocalyptic forecasts that were, and are, routinely made about it, you have to admit that it has consistently surprised on the upside.

I’ve been reading about Russian health and demographics for quite a few years now, and I feel quite confident in saying that if I had stood up back in 2005 (a year during which Russia naturally shrank by over 840,000) and said “in 2012 the Russian population will grow naturally” I would have immediately been dragged off to an insane asylum. Russia’s recent demographic improvements do not mean that it is poised to run roughshod over its neighbors, or that it is going to present any kind of threat to Europe or the United States. They do strongly suggest, however, that narratives about endless Russian decline, decay, and collapse need to be urgently revisited and revised.

While Putinism is not in any way “justified” by the demographic improvements that have taken place over the past eight years, I’ve repeatedly argued that representative government is an intrinsic good and not part of a utilitarian calculus, the fact that Russians are living longer and having more children ought to factor in to how we view the place. Or to put it differently: while Americans might think that Putinism is the worst thing ever, judging by their behavior Russians have a somewhat different view.


Russia is on Track to Record Natural Population Growth in 2012 - Forbes


When it comes to Russian demographics, China state media is far more accurate than the West so called "free press"

Наконец мы видим, что российское население увеличивается.

Glad you guys are on track. With the resources and the land that you have, you could easily do with at least three times your current population.

We on the contrary have the opposite issues.

 

[BishopS]

In spite of the crisis, Russian people live kinda better now. They are paid for having more than 1 kid. It's easier for them to loan money. Why not having kids then?)

 

[Hasbara Buster]

When it comes to Russian demographics, China state media is far more accurate than the West so called "free press":lol:[/QUOTE]

As a matter of fact, in my experience Iranian, Russian and Chinese state media are far more reliable than all the "free" (!) mainstream western media out there. No contest whatsoever!

 

[xuxu1457]

one problem, Russia male fall in love with wine , look at how many people die for drinking everyyear, that's why femal is more than male in Russia，
Life expectancy of male Russian:59years
Life expectancy of female Russian:70years

 

[Grand-Vizier]

didnt putin have a policy , if you have 3 children or something free house or something like that.

 

[Arzamas 16]

one problem, Russia male fall in love with wine , look at how many people die for drinking everyyear, that's why femal is more than male in Russia，
Life expectancy of male Russian:59years
Life expectancy of female Russian:70years

Your quoting old figure's Russian male Life expectancy has improved to 64 years as of 2012, and it getting better every year.

 

[turbo charged]

Russia should mend ties with Pakistan...together we can work on problems russia is facing......

one step could be allowing small punjabi and pashtun businessmen into muslim dominated regions of russia such as tartaristan caucasus ....russian should give one house to any Pakistani who marries a russian lady and also give him russian nationality.....like this russian population will go up and sometime later public opinion of russians for Pakistan will change........

 

[PakistaniandProud]

Nice to here.

 

[Sashan]

one problem, Russia male fall in love with wine , look at how many people die for drinking everyyear, that's why femal is more than male in Russia，
Life expectancy of male Russian:59years
Life expectancy of female Russian:70years

May I suggest a small change above? I think it would be Vodka.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

Your quoting old figure's Russian male Life expectancy has improved to 64 years as of 2012, and it getting better every year.

64 is a very low figure (for a country like Russia).