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Russia backtracks on Iran-Pakistan pipeline

doing business with iran like this is simply too much of a hot potatoe.

for russia to finance this they would effectively have to stick a massive middle finger up to the us/israel and they are not so brave or stupid.



that being said, pakistan needs to get its act together, stop this mentality of always looking for a patron (china, us, russia, saudi, who next?) and try and sort this out internally, its an uphill task, many countries do not want IP to happen.

ultimately any energy co-coperation in the region is good for pakistan, that means ip, tapi or what ever else is on the table.


If we were a bit early we could have joined hands to get the nuke deal from USA just like India did.
The real weight of IPI pipeline was India and with that gone, there is very little for Pakistan to depend on.

But still IP is in Pakistan intrest and should not be let go that easily
 
It is true that Indian lobby is very powerful in Russia but still:

Russia helped Pakistan to build Steel Mills during the Cold War era when Pakistan was US ally.

Russia also allowed Pakistan to use RD-93 engines for JF-17 Thunder in spite of India's protests.

So, if Russians consider that it is the time to improve relations with Pakistan, they will extend a helping hand. A bigger and closely integrated SCO is a not so distant reality now.

China will assuredly help once we get rid of current corrupt govt. They are always helpful.

I don't understand, why people think that Pakistan can't defy USA? Did US allow Pakistan to develop Nuclear program, Missile program, Relationship with China, Cuba or Iran......

We should take heart from the fact that if there in No IP then there can't be a TAPI either.
 
It is true that Indian lobby is very powerful in Russia but still:

Russia helped Pakistan to build Steel Mills during the Cold War era when Pakistan was US ally.

Russia also allowed Pakistan to use RD-93 engines for JF-17 Thunder in spite of India's protests.

So, if Russians consider that it is the time to improve relations with Pakistan, they will extend a helping hand. A bigger and closely integrated SCO is a not so distant reality now.

China will assuredly help once we get rid of current corrupt govt. They are always helpful.

I don't understand, why people think that Pakistan can't defy USA? Did US allow Pakistan to develop Nuclear program, Missile program, Relationship with China, Cuba or Iran......

We should take heart from the fact that if there in No IP then there can't be a TAPI either.

most of the hesitation is due to the current government. Russia and china both know that IP is being promoted not due to national intrests but to fill pockets of zardari with kick backs.
 
It is true that Indian lobby is very powerful in Russia but still:

Russia helped Pakistan to build Steel Mills during the Cold War era when Pakistan was US ally.

China will assuredly help once we get rid of current corrupt govt. They are always helpful.



We should take heart from the fact that if there in No IP then there can't be a TAPI either.

USSR helped to get diplomatic leverage over USA at time of cold war but that didn't worked well.
China is helping more corrupt governments across world and mainly in Africa where they are seeing benefits for them.
I don't about IP but TAPI is any way distance dream ... which i don't see will fulfill in this decade.
And Pakistan is not in condition to go against USA over Iran. None of the Pakistani bank will support this project even your government is not ready to start building pipeline with what even fund they have in hand.. They are spending more money (by printing them not earning it) on sick government enterprises and circular debt then what IP needs .....

This is not about money any more, this is about GOP's foreign policies and diplomacy...
They could have bargain IP for NATO supply routes .. but looks like they missed opportunity to score point by playing with people's emotion by showing string masked faced against USA..
Even with this attitude they will lose offer from SA (I don't know exact offer) to leave IP...

Pakistani pro-Iranians were not planning to pay for the gas (if it ever flowed through imaginary pipelines) and you are talking paying $$ without the pipelines?

Fa-Ged bout it!

As they say in Mafia movies.


peace brother. peace to you!



No we'll use India method, and send gold over to Ayatullahs.

Don't understand your reply mate... is it sarcasm? .. what I know is any deviation from agreement will irk Iran.. still by that time Pakistan will have new government may IK or PLM-N .. if it will PLM-N(looks like ) then things will be more worst, as they will always favor SA and GCC ..
 
If we were a bit early we could have joined hands to get the nuke deal from USA just like India did.
.....

India got the nuke deal because it has loads of cash $$$$$ and everyone from Russia to USA to Australia to China are trying to get their share.

Pakistan doesn't have cash, so no nuke deal for us. We are asking USA to give us reactors on long term loan. This makes our position weak. And we have to offer more from our side. And one of those things is to sign NPT. But Pakistanis don't want that either. So we don't have cash, and we don't want to sign NPT, so we are stuck between the rock and the hard place.

Let's get out of this Pak-India close mindedness and see what other countries are getting nuke deals from USA.

FYI!

China has 10 times larger nuke deals with USA. Why? China has cash. A typical reactor costs $3 billions. China has at least 3 and perhaps upto 6 reactors in the pipeline. That means China is planning to pay close to $20 billion to the USA for these reactors. That amount my brother is more than Pakistan's total revenues per year.

Even India is not willing to pay $20 billion to USA so the number of reactors will be few in this case. FYI. India is still working on the first one under this deal.

so my dear brother, please figure out how to get cash and Pakistan will get the reactors as well.

peace to you.

..... what I know is any deviation from agreement will irk Iran.. ..

Everybody and their donkey is irked with Pakistan. Add Iran to the list my dear brother.

Sure Pakistanis are shaking in their boots because Iran is irked.

peace to you brother. Peace to you.
 
Even if Pakistan finds a way to finance IP pipeline, Pakistan's best interest is not in defying Saudis and Americans to buy expensive Iranian gas and end up with crippling sanctions which could be much worse than its current energy crisis. Its best interests will be served by developing its own cheap domestic shale gas on an accelerated schedule with Saudi investment and US tech know-how. If the Americans and the Saudis refuse to help, then Pakistan will have a stronger case to go with the Iran gas option.

Haq's Musings: Affordable Fuel Shortage Hurts Power Sector in South Asia
 
No we'll use India method, and send gold over to Ayatullahs.

Do you have gold? Even if you do, that won't help. You tried everything but failed. You tried getting help from everywhere but now nobody is interested in helping you. Even your best friend china don't want to be seen with you in this project. The only option you have now is to cancel this project.
 
Do you have gold? Even if you do, that won't help. You tried everything but failed. You tried getting help from everywhere but now nobody is interested in helping you. Even your best friend china don't want to be seen with you in this project. The only option you have now is to cancel this project.

Oh meray bhai,

Read #6 in this thread before jumping the gun.

You can't understand the discussion unless you go back and see what each "sane" poster is saying on this topic.

And yes we have gold. Not as much as Indians. But still we do. Our government is poor but our people are rich.

Thank you.
 
I have said so many times and will say again,

India should finance the project, this will be best confidence building measure between India and Pakistan.

If south asia has to develop, India should take the lead being a bigger nation.

But it is sad statement for Pakistan, beloved friend China and future friend Russia both backing out.
 
I have said so many times and will say again,

India should finance the project,.

Yes Sir. If Indian wants to go under sanctions.

Indians are under tremendous pressure not to buy oil from Iran and give gold in return.

This missile thingy fired few days ago was not aimed at China. Indians can roast China with other missiles.

The test was India's protest cry against the US/NATO.

So I highly suggest Indians not touching the Iranian hot potato.


peace.
 
Ok guys lets forget about IP and concentrate on Shale gas and TAPI
beggars cannot be choosers.

TAPI also has Russian involvement in the last stages as they've significant expertise in pipeline laying. It is essential that most CAR related energy supply. There's nothing beggar about it. Maybe they don't see the right cost-benefit analysis behind this.

Stupid Pakistani government.

Why're you blaming your government? Sometime back, both you and Russians had expressed interest in exploring energy trade in the region together. Now explore is a pretty generic word that doesn't confirm much. This was upto the involved officials who have to have the maturity to accept.

1st mistake: On which bases they claimed that they are ready to invest when they didn’t get any solid document or green signal from Kremlin?

MoUs usually ensure the exploratory part more than any serious commitment. It is more like "we will be interested to check whether this is viable or not between our countries". It doesn't guarantee anything. There are many projects that are globally canceled due to last minute cancelations.

2nd mistake: Pakistani officials thought that it’s US or UK where they used to go. Who will learn them that this Russia where Indian lobby stronger than they imagine and they could put pressure to turn their thinking against Pakistan.

Please read carefully. This has more to do with US pressure than anything remotely related to us. Unlike your vertical-relationship with USA since cold war, ours has been relatively on the same plane whereby Russia never meddled in our affairs and we respect their decisions. The Duma doesn't have any Indian origin members there to have a special lobby. If you mean to say pro-India politicians, most of the Kremlin would simply suggest that we get involved in the project.

We are involved in TAPI already which is both US and Russian clearance. Turkmenistan might be US-friendly but it still cannot avoid Russian influence. Any project that involves us and the Russians would, considering the current geography, involve you or Iran.


Moreover it is important to note that Russian government will not simply go against US pressure unless they will not get guaranty securing their interests in region through Pakistan and investment security. Russian government ever complained about instability of political situation in Pakistan as it effects on international agreements with change of government. Pakistan approved itself a risky investment zone.

BINGO! You're 100% on the mark. The main things Russians and even your friends the Chinese want is:

- Extermination of Taliban-type elements and end of your support to these elements.
- Guaranteed safety to trading products or energy supply channels.
- Guaranteed assurance that the investments they make in your country would give them strong ROIs based on feasibility studies that they might have or are conducting.

See, economics is a very serious thing. It may look picture perfect on paper but a lot of factors totally unrelated to it also suddenly become relevant in your nation's case. Russians invested in our infrastructure and industry in 60s because they saw a massive ROI and it got them that. Today, the goodwill of their investments is paying them big dividends in the form of multibillion import orders of finished steel from Russia (especially the special steel classes) while common steel is either got from Japan or some varieties made in-house.

The same logic applies to pipelines. Think about it; if they invested that sum and some loony Talibunny blew it up. Billions of dollars worth of oil or gas would get wasted. It would then escalate to potential disasters to the environment, the clean up costs, the political cost and the security costs. So?

There are lot of factors may involved while considering Pakistan’s proposal, security situation is one of them. Meanwhile they are looking in broad perspectives of their business in Pakistan and we can offer them participating and investing in more projects.

And what investment environment do you propose when there is no security of those investments in either tangible or intangible form?

I can relate to this because other states in my region face the same issue of internal problems. My region is super rich in resources and technically if there were no wannabe-ruler tiny bandit (terrorist) groups trying to attempt rule by the gun, my region's states would be far ahead of rest of Indian states.

Security for industries is a big big cost element that any country looks at.

There should be proper backup in Moscow from embassy of Pakistan (Which is doing nothing except stamping visas).In my point of view Prime Minister Gilani had to meet with counterpart in Moscow rather than sending their beauty queen.

No investment security= no investment. Cold and hard logic of businessmen. Put yourself in Kremlin's position and see. If you're a businessman, you will understand what I am saying without taking it otherwise.

I have said so many times and will say again,

India should finance the project, this will be best confidence building measure between India and Pakistan.

Not possible without a guaranteed non-interference from rogue elements in the state. This is where pragmatism trumps emotional drivel. Business has no emotions. It seeks guarantees and return on investments. We have other alternatives rather than such an unpredictable investments that have both a political, regional and militaristic angle to it.

If south asia has to develop, India should take the lead being a bigger nation.

We are not the Thaekedaars of South Asia. Our national territory, national interests and the interest of our closest friends is of primary concern. You need to snap out of it, bhai.

But it is sad statement for Pakistan, beloved friend China and future friend Russia both backing out.

No security = no business possible. Why do you think, for example, my region's states are not like Switzerland or Austria despite massive resource wealth? :)

Yes Sir. If Indian wants to go under sanctions.

We've outgrown the "sanctions" stage. Sanctioning us would mean sanctioning its own business industries now. That era is over.

Indians are under tremendous pressure not to buy oil from Iran and give gold in return.

We have reduced our supplies, not stopped them. Not even all the P5 can make us change our decisions together. Forget one single country or a group of them. If our policy doesn't hurt another friend's security, it is not military in nature, then we will do what is good for us.

Hint: US buys massive amounts of Venezuelan oil despite being its worst enemy in the region.

This missile thingy fired few days ago was not aimed at China. Indians can roast China with other missiles.

Well you're kind of right. But that would come at the price of reducing our payload. Agni-III can easily reach most relevant parts of your friend easily but with a reduced payload. Agni-V saves us that trouble.

The test was India's protest cry against the US/NATO.

Even if it was like your new buddies say as 8,000 Km and that our government is lying, it still doesn't reach US and doesn't need to as we have zero problems with US.

Europe doesn't interest us because:

- They are devoid of any resources
- They are not hostile to us
- They are our business partners and we don't attack business partners.

So I highly suggest Indians not touching the Iranian hot potato.

You forget who our strategic guru has been. :azn:. We were born with expertise in geo-strategy, mate.



And the very same to you as well. :tup:
 
If we were a bit early we could have joined hands to get the nuke deal from USA just like India did.
The real weight of IPI pipeline was India and with that gone, there is very little for Pakistan to depend on.

But still IP is in Pakistan intrest and should not be let go that easily


a nuke deal with the US? you must be oblivious to do the reality that the us does not consider pakistan a MEANINGFUL all in any sense, pakistan is a country of muslims with a nuclear bomb - this is not a good position to make friendship when the west has declared war on the muslim world.

the solution must come within, the truth is that pakistans own elites dont care enough to do anything for the common man, its about time people realised this and stopped deluding themselves, or allowing themselves to be fooled.
 
Nobody is stupid to finance projects where one of the countries that is involved is standing infront of a possible attack from the superpower.
 
Why are these clowns looking for 1.5 billion dollars from out side the country when they are spending all sort billions to keep there members employed in crown corporations
 
Btw, is there any other option Pakistan has? They can try convincing the Chinese again?
 

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