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Rupee recovers 1.8pc vs dollar

farhan_9909

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KARACHI: Banks supplied $5 million to the open market on Thursday causing immediate recovery of local currency which gained 1.8 per cent in just two days.

The sharp depreciation of dollar forced hoarders to come in the queue for selling dollars while buyers almost lost interest in the greenback.

However, currency dealers said no more appreciation of local currency is possible since the inter-bank market has not yet shown any signs of improvement.

The inter-bank market is under immense pressure as foreign exchange reserves of the country fell by over half a billion dollars within a week while the main loser was State Bank.

Both the inter-bank and State Bank lost their holdings by $141m and $417m, respectively, during Nov 21 to 29, reported State Bank on Thursday.

Pakistan paid $397m to the IMF in the last week of previous month while about $200m is due to be paid this month. The inflow of IMF’s second tranche of $547m is expected by mid of this month.

The federal finance minister recently claimed to bring the dollar down at Rs98, but market experts and currency dealers find it impossible owing to weak health of the State Bank reserves.

The SBP reported on Thursday that reserves of the State Bank fell to $3.046bn while holdings of scheduled banks also fell by $141m to $5.191bn.

“The dollar is available at Rs108.50 in the open market, but buyers disappeared which practically made us surplus,” said Malik Bostan, President, Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan. He said 90pc were sellers and only 10pc were buyers.

He said that on the instructions of the finance ministry and influence of State Bank, banks supplied $5m to the market which made a positive impact and the greenback lost 75 paisa in one go. He said the dollar lost Rs2 in two days.

“But I see no more appreciation of dollar since the inter-bank market has not yet shown signs of recovery,” he said, adding that now the dollar has same price in inter-bank and open markets.

Currency dealers in the inter-bank market said the open market has such a small volume that an inflow of $5m strengthens the rate.

Rupee recovers 1.8pc vs dollar - DAWN.COM
 
Banks supplied $5 million to the open market on Thursday causing immediate recovery of local currency which gained 1.8 per cent in just two days.
This is suicidal. Follow Indian model. India has brought down CAD from 6.7% to just 1.2%(last quarter CAD) making INR appreciate from 69 to 61. Do not try to tamper with the free market.

But I see no more appreciation of dollar since the inter-bank market has not yet shown signs of recovery,
Thanks to Fed.

Pakistan paid $397m to the IMF in the last week of previous month while about $200m is due to be paid this month. The inflow of IMF’s second tranche of $547m is expected by mid of this month.
A perfect case of debt trap. Taking new debts to repay old debts.

The SBP reported on Thursday that reserves of the State Bank fell to $3.046bn while holdings of scheduled banks also fell by $141m to $5.191bn.
Very dangerous situation.Won't even last a week in emergency situations like war.India always maintains 8 months backup with $280 billion in reserves only.
 
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This is suicidal. Follow Indian model. India has brought down CAD from 6.7% to just 1.2%(last quarter CAD) making INR appreciate from 69 to 61. Do not try to tamper with the free market.


Thanks to Fed.


A perfect case of debt trap. Taking new debts to repay old debts.


Very dangerous situation.Won't even last a week in emergency situations like war.India always maintains 8 months backup with $280 billion in reserves only.


The moment a central bank steps in, free markets goes out the door.In case of India, if it hadn't been for RBI, the rupee would be too low.
 
The moment a central bank steps in, free markets goes out the door.In case of India, if it hadn't been for RBI, the rupee would be too low.
Wrong. When RBI was working too much, INR was sliding. But,then new RBI chief came and just stopped gold importing to keep CAD in control. And, it worked.

Correction:-Actually, India did not stop gold imports but increased the taxes and added some conditions.
 
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Wrong. When RBI was working too much, INR was sliding. But,then new RBI chief came and just stopped gold importing to keep CAD in control. And, it worked.

He stopped the citizens of the country from importing lots of gold. That's government intervention in the free market. India is a socialist economy, whether you like it or not. Free market in truest sense does not exist anywhere. Always a mix of free market and socialism. In case of India, if it was a free market as you claim, then import of Gold would still be allowed.
 
He stopped the citizens of the country from importing lots of gold. That's government intervention in the free market. India is a socialist economy, whether you like it or not. Free market in truest sense does not exist anywhere. Always a mix of free market and socialism. In case of India, if it was a free market as you claim, then import of Gold would still be allowed.
India is a signatory to WTO and some relaxations are allowed in that treaty also. Actually, India did not stop gold imports but increased the taxes and added some conditions.

By the way, Pak's economic problem is totally different from India.
 
India is a signatory to WTO and some relaxations are allowed in that treaty also. Actually, India did not stop gold imports but increased the taxes and added some conditions.

By the way, Pak's economic problem is totally different from India.

You are winging the discussion here, so i will leave at it.

If you read my post very carefully, i did not say that India stopped the citizens from importing gold. I said, it stopped citizens from importing lots of gold. Putting barriers like import taxes is tantamount to preventing the supply of gold to the otherwise 'free market'
 
You are winging the discussion here, so i will leave at it.
If you read my post very carefully, i did not say that India stopped the citizens from importing gold. I said, it stopped citizens from importing lots of gold. Putting barriers like import taxes is tantamount to preventing the supply of gold to the otherwise 'free market'

Govt will tax people. This is the fundamental right of a sovereign govt.Otherwise, a country will collapse without collecting taxes.


Come to the main topic:-

1)Artificial Dollar supply instead of CAD control.

2)Debt trap.

3) Poor reserve.
 
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The moment a central bank steps in, free markets goes out the door.In case of India, if it hadn't been for RBI, the rupee would be too low.
Its called managed/dirty float and it is happening all across the globe (CHF,JPY,CAD,CNY,AUD,BRL etc). And market with managed float is still considered a free market. Currency wars have been a hot topic in the markets lately.
 
Good explanation. The question is then why has SBP intervened in the market this even after imf advice? I understand that defending currency is considered as suicide since defending currency indicates that the currency needs to be defended.

Text book economics says one must improve his exports to stop a currency decline
These stoping/curbing imports & currency tampering are all short term measures
As far as my knowledge goes
What Pakistan needs to do is
1. Solve the energy crisis (Nawaz has really done a good thing till now I have herd that load shedding has reduced from some members here)
2. improve the law & order
3. Get investment to kick start manufacturing preferably from China
4. Last to reduce beuqacratic interference in running of business & getting clearances for infra projects
 
Good explanation. The question is then why has SBP intervened in the market this even after imf advice? I understand that defending currency is considered as suicide since defending currency indicates that the currency needs to be defended.
Initially SBP used to pay the bills for Oil import, thus shifting major pressure from the market. While this kept the market calm or even net positive, SBP's position became net negative. However, the oil payments were subsequently shifted to the market causing market position to be net negative while SBP being net positive or stable. Yet, the negative current account balance requires a net outflow which has to be met either way. So with market being negative on flows, SBP has to eventually fill the gap.
 
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