Rupee fall may destroy Bangladesh Economy

[TopCat]

Actually we differ in our perception perhaps. I am not trying to prove that BD will get "badly" hurt but Indian export will get competitive helping us reducing our trade deficits.

Export earning will depend upon the extent by which we can increase our export. If increase is minimal, then rupee depreciation will neutralize it but if export increase is substantial then there will be a net rise in earning. So cant comment over it as of now.

EU and US is equally(if not more) interested in India. I may sound harsh(apology), but BD do not count really in strategic affairs right now unless she opens herself for military bases of either US or China. US base are highly unlikely and china wont help in increasing your export, they are themselves a big manufacturing hub.

You are the cheapest supplier of the product we import from you and you have no competition in BD. For instance cotton, onion, chillis, stones, fabrics etc which no other countries can supply. Other than the traditional goods you dont have much in your basket that you can export to BD which can compete with Chinese quality and price even though your rupee gone down. We may import some more from you but you dont have the capacity to export more.

 

[TopCat]

Competitive is wrong word here, profitable should be.

On BD perspective if they just switch between importers without net increase in total imports then its OK but it doesn't happen generally. BD might be lured to buy more non-ingredient things which they usually manufacture within but with comparative higher cost. Here comes the devil when Indian goods start competing with local industry.

Also competition in US/EU market will increase with same indian goods available in much cheaper price. 20% OFF is there -- a BIG BIG offer. BD can cut down its prices and still maintain its profitability but still US/EU will find indian goods 10% cheaper -- enough to make them rethink.

Its not as easy as you think. As rupee gone down, so will your inflation will go up. You have to pay more for your imports, pay higher wages, pay higher for transportation, pay higher interest rate, wait longer for loan approval, low buyer confidence on your economy and ability to supply on time will erode all your gain in rupee devaluation. Ultimately, its your economy which devalued the rupee, not the rupee will fix your economy.

 

[Skies]

Dear Indians, Prof. Vinod Kumars idea can help India. Please have a look on his ideas below:

Before asking this question and searching its answer on net, you should ask two question before this and try to get its solutions. One is why should we increase Indian rupee value against dollar? and why is Indian rupee is falling with fast speed against dollar? Correct answer of these two questions can clear the way of getting the answer of third your question.

Q : 1. why should we increase Indian rupee value against dollar?

Ans. Answer is very simple. See the one side one glass of water in the time when you are thirsty and there is no water near you. See the other side 1 kg Gold. If you have to choose one thing for getting other thing, then what will you choose. Sure, you will choose water because you can not live without this. Its value is more than 1 kg Gold. But, we are seeing that water gets free of cost and we have to pay Rs. 30,00,000 for getting 1 kg. gold. So, theory applies on India Rupee value. It is pure water. We are giving it to USA at very very under value. It is insult of our India that USA country is valuing our Rupee one as 1/ 54 or 0.0185 paise. We all Indians should die before listening this news. It is very challenging for us as true Indians. Like me, all the other countries whose value is depreciating. When, God has given equal opportunities to rise, then how can any economics demand and supply game stops the progress of one country by decreasing its currency value. I am not against USA and USA people. But, I am against the dirty game of economics. When I and a person who lives in USA equal, then its all transactions should be one same currency. Every country's currency must equal to other country's currency. Instead of this, there is one important benefit if our Indian Rupee will rise.

Human capital will not go USA when Indian 1Rupee will equal to 54 $. All Indians will think and rise Indian not USA.

Q : 1. why is Indian Rupee is Falling with fast speed against dollar?

In 1947, one USA Dollar was equal to the One Rupee. If you study the history of 65 years, you will see that Indian rupee is continually falling. This is not the question of current year 2012. From 65 years, same question are being asked by you and all the economist are giving its simple answer. US dollars' demand is increasing fast than Indian Rupee. It means USA's demand of Dollar is very high than India Rupee's demand. India becomes the only center to issue new notes for fulfilling the demand of USA Dollars. So, Indian currency is depreciating day by day. For learning purpose and for writing the same answer in your exam, this answer is OK.

But, I think, there is big conspiracy behind the falling of Indian rupee against US Dollar.

1st Conspiracy

After independence, Indian politics and media are trying to make India as second USA. For this, one side, Indian Govt. has decreased the prices of USA products through free trade. Now, you can understand how did one USA dollar get the power of 52 Rs.. It got through decreasing the prices. Now, products of USA won from Indian products. So, imports from past 65 years have increased thousands times. USA companies gave some commission in the form of bribe for getting freedom from tax. All money went to Swiss bank.

2nd Conspiracy


Second side, media invested his whole time for advertising the zero quality products as the amazing quality of the world. It has changed India culture. Now, Indians love to enjoy Christmas and gave USA gift. So, they started to more and more import. Moreover, media plays the role to increase the zero quality as best quality of USA products. If all these media is banned to advertise false statement in written or video, Indian currency can rise within two days.

3rd Conspiracy

Whole world has been divided into two parts. One is developed and second is developing. USA wants to sell its all products and services in all developing country. For this, it has made WTO, World bank, IMF and other organistion who captured the developing countries in the loan and other foreign trade rules. Its benefit directly goes to USA companies, to survive and paying the cost of living in developing countries will more easy if dollar will boom and developing countries' currency will decrease. No, one important question relating to this. Why is Chinese yuan becoming strong day by day. In 2000, 8.28 Chinese yuan was equal to one dollar. But after understanding the conspiracy and it has started its domestic products. Now in 2012, only 6.3 yuan are equal to one dollar.So, India has to start to use its own product instead of importing everything from usa. India also should ban zero quality products of USA. Following the map of CNY/USA exchange rate

Historical Chinese Yuan Rate (CNY)

Now, after getting solution of two above question, it is very easy for use to explain the steps to increase Indian Rupee value against dollar.

1st : Be Indian and Buy Indian :

If you want to see Rs. 1 equal to $ 1 within one month, it is my challenge. It is possible. Yes! For this, we have to learn to be Indian. We have to start to buy Indian. Buy Indian means, we have to buy the product which is produced in India and whose profit is used in India for India's development not USA's development. But, what are we seeing. Every Indian is saying that we are not Indian we are herry, berry, shanti and manti. From our names, anyone knows us as USA guy. Every foreign product whether is not any equal is gold for us. With this, we can not become Indian and buy Indian We have to faith in domestic industry of India.

2nd Return of NRI to Own Country

With this, demand of Indian currency will increase. Due to shortage of this in global market, its value will increase. Give me one promise all NRI, if you have some love of India in any corner of your heart. Live just 5 years in India, you will see India as your second USA.

3rd Stop to Import All Zero Technology Products

We have to stop buying all zero technology products from USA. All these zero technology products are devil for reducing our currency's power.

4th Donate Your 2 Hours Time for India in a Day

There are lots of weakness in all us which are responsible for depreciating our currency. We have to donate our 2 hours time for India in a Day for removing its weakness. We have to clean the weakness in our Indian society. We have to increase the power of Indian woman by stopping prostitution, killing of girl child. Except of this, we have to decrease the unemployment, we have to come forward for providing education to all poor Indians.

In end of this topic, I want to say, when we will become water. Our value will be more than Gold and diamond because without this no one can live. Our Indian currency represents our own value. So, start to try to uplift your value.

How to Increase Indian Rupee Value Against Dollar

 

[Bamboo Castle]

The ongoing slide of the Indian currency is poised to cause some major dents to Bangladesh’s garment business abroad, seeing that the two neighbouring countries compete in the same segments globally.The rupee slumped to a record low of 68.75 to the dollar yesterday amid growing concerns over the health of the Indian economy.Although both the Bangladeshi taka and the Indian rupee now have more or less the same denomination value against the dollar, the rupee’s downtrend suggests it is bound to get cheaper in the near future and in the process, divert Bangladesh’s orders to India.Particularly affected will be Bangladesh’s exports to the US, where the South Asian neighbours enjoy a level-playing field but India has an edge due to its own cotton production.“Even the confirmed orders will go to India if the rupee continues to decline this way,” said Abdus Salam Murshedy, a former president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association.Over at the European Union, Bangladesh’s 12.50 percent duty benefit under the relaxed Rules of Origin policy, too, is no longer looking to be a big advantage over India, said Mustafizur Rahman, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue.David Hasanat, managing director of Viyellatex Group, one of the major garment exporters to the European market, however, thinks “India’s currency advantage would not last forever”. “Normalcy will return after a certain period — Bangladesh, in the end, would not be that big a loser.”But it is the country’s growing garment exports to India that would be the biggest casualty of rupee’s depreciation.“The domestic garment makers there would now be able to cater to the orders at rates equal to, if not better than, Bangladesh’s,” Rahman said.Murshedy, who is also the president of Exporters Association of Bangladesh, sought policy support from the government to maintain the high export growth to India, which started growing in stature after the neighbouring country extended a zero-duty benefit in November 2011.In fiscal 2012-13, garment exports to India increased 36.70 percent from the year before to $75.21 million, according to data from Export Promotion Bureau.

Rupee slide to dent garment exports from Bangladesh

This article is full of sh.. They said the same thing before about other currencies in the region but turned out to be false calls. There are some analysts there who just want to be in the front line with anything they can put in the Papers. I remember on Indian Jotish from India said Year 2000 is the end of the world. If it is true then we are ghosts.

 

[Skies]

1st : Be Indian and Buy Indian :

If you want to see Rs. 1 equal to $ 1 within one month, it is my challenge. It is possible. Yes! For this, we have to learn to be Indian. We have to start to buy Indian. Buy Indian means, we have to buy the product which is produced in India and whose profit is used in India for India's development not USA's development. But, what are we seeing. Every Indian is saying that we are not Indian we are herry, berry, shanti and manti. From our names, anyone knows us as USA guy. Every foreign product whether is not any equal is gold for us. With this, we can not become Indian and buy Indian We have to faith in domestic industry of India.

I wonder if Indians' spending natures was as like ours, what would be the value of Rupee today!! I mean do Bangladeshis bother whether we buy local or foreign products? In fact, we love to buy foreign products. We are extremely liberal, but Indians are are very conservative in buying foreign products. But look now, even their conservative view like Be Indian, buy Indian has brought depreciated Rupee value to them, whereas, Bangladeshis never mind to buy foreign products and are enjoying good value to Taka.

 

[Bonkers]

We buy inputs for our industry from you such as cotton. As that becomes cheaper BD competitiveness increases.

We buy rice and other primary stuff from you that we do not grow in sufficient amounts. Again that's good news from us.

The trade deficit will increase but that is irrelevant all it means is that we will buy less from china for example. BD economy is export driven and our primary markets are US and Europe.

This is s fairly non issue BD is prevented from selling anything in the Indian market by your tarrif and para tarrif barriers.
fall in your currency would have mattered if there was any type of equilibrium in trade between us.

BD will buy more from India. As purchaser we buy from wherever it is cheaper.

Fall in rupee will not harm BD at all. It's actually represents an opportunity and makes our finished goods more competitive.

BS.

In the last 9 months, Bangladeshi Taka appreciated by 5% while Indian Rupee Depreciated by 27%.

What is the value of cotton as a % of RMG product?

If Bangladesh starts importing cotton since it becomes cheaper due to depreciated rupee, then Indian exports increases and Bangladeshi Deficit rises.

Similarly, Indian Exports will rise while Bangladesh would accumulate Raw material in bulk (cotton), Bangladeshi exports would not be able to compete with Indian. Both way Indian exports will rise and bangladesh would be dumped.

While the country received more than $19bn in apparel exports during 2012, it missed its target of $23bn in 2013 ending short at $21,4bn. It will possibly miss it’s target for 2014, unless all the stakehold-ers, especially the government do their best.

Bangladesh can only find solace in duty free imports and quotas provided by countries like India, US and EU.

However, Freebies given to Bangladesh are also of no use:

Recently, India’s duty free support to Bangladesh exports has resulted in a 13% year on year rise in Bangladeshi exports to India with Bangladesh exporting goods worth $564m there last year. This included ready-made garment exports to India rising from $55m to $75m.

However with a falling Indian rupee, this growth may go down for our apparel, jute and jute goods, leather and frozen food items which are the dominant players in our export basket to India.