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Rs3,973b annual budget on June 3

Shabaz Sharif

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ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar on Tuesday said that government would announce the annual budget 2014-15 on June 3 in National Assembly with total outlay of Rs 3,973 billion and budget deficit of 4.8 percent of the GDP for next fiscal year.

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ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar on Tuesday said that government would announce the annual budget 2014-15 on June 3 in National Assembly with total outlay of Rs 3,973 billion and budget deficit of 4.8 percent of the GDP for next fiscal year.

Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar briefed the joint session of the National Assembly and Senate Standing Committees on Finance Revenue and Economic on the upcoming budget 2014-15. The committee proceedings were declared in-camera on the request of Finance Minister. Sources informed The Nation that Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has spent most of the time on giving briefing on current economic situation of the country instead of budget proposal. He recalled the economic achievement of the government during first year of its tenure including elimination of circular debt, IMF programme, auction of 3G/4G, auction of Eurobonds and others.

Participants of the meeting informed that Finance Ministry has given briefing to the committee on the main contours of the budget 2014-15 in the joint parliamentary committee. However, the government's economic team did not disclose the taxation measures in the meeting.

The committee was informed that the total volume of the upcoming budget is estimated at Rs 3973 billion with fiscal deficit at 4.8 percent of the GDP (approximately Rs 1630 billion). The government would allocate Rs 700 billion for the defence budget, Rs 525 billion for public sector development programme (PSDP) and debt servicing Rs1,347 billion. Meanwhile the government has decided to keep revenue collection target at Rs 2810 billion for next fiscal year. Meanwhile, the non-tax revenue for the next budget has been projected at Rs817 billion. The government has estimated subsidies at 229 billion, Rs215 billion for paying pensions to retired employees and Rs 285 billion for federal government service delivery. Inflation rate is projected at eight percent and GDP growth at five percent.

Finance Minister would announce the budget on June 3 2014, as President of Islamic Republic of Pakistan has summoned the session of the National Assembly on the same day. Sources said that government is mulling to increase salaries and pensions by 10 percent in the budget.

The lawmaker of opposition parties showed dissatisfaction over the budgetary measures of the government by saying these would result in rapid increase in inflation rate. They showed serious concerns over the government's proposed revenue collection target of Rs 2810 billion and doubted that FBR might struggle to achieve it. They informed that government did not give taxation measures. They were of the view that government should call the standing committees three months before to the budget to incorporate the proposals of the lawmakers.

Ishaq Dar assured the parliamentary committee that government would release the developmental funds under Prime Minster's discretionary funds under People's Works Programme-II (PWP-II) after the judgment of Supreme Court of Pakistan. "Finance Minister has assured the committee to release the funds worth of Rs 10 million for each parliamentarian under PWP-II after the Supreme Court judgment", said Senator Muhammad Talha Mahmood of JUI-F.

He added that government would release the funds of the outgoing fiscal year in next year, as it did not release single penny for the lawmakers for development works in their constituencies. Member National Assembly of Pakistan Peoples Party Naveed Qamar also opted same stance and said that we have asked the Finance Minister to release the funds for developmental projects of the country

Former Finance Minister Senator Saleem Mandivalla, termed the budgetary targets as ambitious and budget strategy paper as ‘wish-list'. Senator Talha informed the media that government's measures would increase the inflation rate in the country. He informed that government has target to increase foreign exchange reserves to $19 billion by the end of the next fiscal year 2014-15, which are $13 billion currently. He showed doubts over the tax collection target of Rs 2810 billion, as he said target is challenging. He disclosed that government has not kept single penny for Dasy hydroelectric project in the budget. Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao of Quami Watan Party expressed dissatisfaction over the presentation on budget, as he said it was ‘sketchy presentation'. "The government should call meeting of standing committee two months prior to budget so lawmakers could give their recommendations". MNA Naveed Qamar termed the revenue collection target Rs 2810 billion set for next financial year as ‘notional'. The government has fixed the fiscal deficit target with consultation of IMF.

Courtesy: The Nation
 
He disclosed that government has not kept single penny for Dasy hydroelectric project in the budget.
This is not a good sign, although we are aware that World Bank might release initial funds to kickstart this project.
 
This is not a good sign, although we are aware that World Bank might release initial funds to kickstart this project.

I was confused at first, they meant Dasu? Funds for Dasu will be provided by WB.
 
I was confused at first, they meant Dasu? Funds for Dasu will be provided by WB.
Not all funds will be provided by World Bank. Following is the statement from Wapda's official site

As per World Bank Aide-Memoire dated November 21, 2013, the World Bank has shown full commitments to arranging US$ 4.278 Billion as Cost of Stage I. World Bank will provide US$ 700.00 million, ICBC China US$ 2000.00 million and Deutsche Bank US$ 1000.00 million.

Source: DASU HYDROPOWER PROJECT

So that's only 16.36% from the World Bank
Deutsche Bank
about 23.75%
ICBC China
about 46.75%

The total amount is going to be far larger than 4.278 billion dollars so expect even less percentage
 
Not all funds will be provided by World Bank. Following is the statement from Wapda's official site



Source: DASU HYDROPOWER PROJECT

So that's only 16.36% from the World Bank
Deutsche Bank
about 23.75%
ICBC China
about 46.75%

The total amount is going to be far larger than 4.278 billion dollars so expect even less percentage

Once work kick start this year with $700 million then expect rest to also follow. Main problem is financing for Basha dam not Dasu.
 
Defense remains the largest expense by far after debt servicing, previous claims to the contrary having been total lies.
 
Defense remains the largest expense by far after debt servicing, previous claims to the contrary having been total lies.

And what were the previous claims?
 
Defense remains the largest expense by far after debt servicing, previous claims to the contrary having been total lies.

Defence budget is 17.61% this year, this is low by previous standards.
 
Defense remains the largest expense by far after debt servicing, previous claims to the contrary having been total lies.

waise to be honest, looking at the regional development, we have to sacrifice alot on defence, and its justifiable, no?
 
Pakistan Defence Spending %age of GDP

2004: 4.1% of GDP

2007:3.4% of GDP

2012: 3.1% of GDP

2014: 2.7% of GDP

Defence Budget as a %age of Central Govt Expenses

2004: 28.5%

2007:21.9%

2011;17.6%

2012 16.7%

2014: 17%(?)


We cannot expect it to go below 10% within a year.Even india spends more than 15% of its national budget on defence.Though i agree for a economy of Pakistan size,It should not be more than 14%.

Military expenditure (% of central government expenditure) | Data | Graph
 
Defense remains the largest expense by far after debt servicing, previous claims to the contrary having been total lies.
What basically happened is

The Government seems to have reduced both development and non development budget in order to narrow the gap between revenue and expenses. The budget deficits has been brought down from really pathetic 5.8% to 4.8% but the Government could not afford to reduce defence budget. If we were supposed to maintain the budget deficits close to 5.8% or more as previously was the case since last few years, the total budget outlay could be well above 4300 billion rupees thus keeping the overall defence expenses to under 16%.
 
I would not mind bringing the Defence budget down to 630Billion pkr of the possible allocation of 700Billion pkr and rather the 70billion pkr be used for development related projects or even into investing of energy.

Next year if the economy perform better and grow beyond 5% or as the 5.5% target.They should directly increase it to 850Billlion pkr instead
 
Pakistan Defence Spending %age of GDP

2004: 4.1% of GDP

2007:3.4% of GDP

2012: 3.1% of GDP

2014: 2.7% of GDP

Defence Budget as a %age of Central Govt Expenses

2004: 28.5%

2007:21.9%

2011;17.6%

2012 16.7%

2014: 17%(?)


We cannot expect it to go below 10% within a year.Even india spends more than 15% of its national budget on defence.Though i agree for a economy of Pakistan size,It should not be more than 14%.

Military expenditure (% of central government expenditure) | Data | Graph

This year is 17.61%, little higher then last year. One of IMF conditions is to keep budget deficit 4.8%. So increase was lower in overall budget. Lets see if this year FBR archive 2810 billion tax target. I can see close to 5,000bn budget next year.
 
vcheng and defense discussions again ...a Déjà vu :pakistan:why is so difficult to simply read no., they dont lie. its 17%. thats all.
now some one need to say its first second third or fourth doesnt matter because its based on how you define things.
e.g its first if you dont consider debt serving, running govt and development funds etc. obviously a road cannt cost more than defence expenditure.
how much percent of budget does india spend on defence, another way is to weight it per GDP? you will find it not much different than india.
nutshell, pak-india in arms race
 
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This year is 17.61%, little higher then last year. One of IMF conditions to keep bufget deficit to 4.8%. So increase was lower in overall budget. Lets see if this year FBR archive 2810 billion tax target. I can see close to 5,000bn budget next year.

I remember few years later it was close to 17Billion dollars in Dollars term.How does it increase to 40Billion dollars this soon.

I doubt FBR will achieve 2810Billion pkr target,they will miss it by 200Billion pkr or atleast 100billion

anyway can you quote me the original target for FBR this year?(Not the revised target)
 
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