Azazel
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Role Reversal: Pakistan Fears Terrorists From Afghanistan
MINGORA, PakistanThe busy Green Market in this scenic valley town was once known as "Bloody Square" because Taliban militants hung the bodies of opponents in the street.
The Pakistan military drove the Taliban from the area in 2009 and embarked on a campaign to restore the Swat Valley's reputation as the Switzerland of South Asia. Last year, the Norwegian ambassador hit the slopes to kick off the "Ski and Smile in Swat" festival, aimed at luring tourists back to a resort region that long ago hosted Britain's Queen Elizabeth.
But a series of jarring attacks over the past year, including the attempted assassination last fall of 15-year-old girls-education advocate Malala Yousafzai, has set off alarms for Pakistani military leaders, who worry that their hard-fought gains are slipping away.
Pakistani military officials in this remote region say there is a new catalyst for the violence: the withdrawal of U.S. forces across the border in eastern Afghanistan. Pakistani leaders are concerned that the looming end to more than a decade of U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan is emboldening the Pakistani Taliban, who have been orchestrating attacks in Pakistan from havens on the other side of the border.
"As U.S. forces pull out, there will be a vacuum," said Maj. Gen. Ghulam Qamar, commander of the Pakistan infantry division based in Swat. "There is a fear of a resurgence of terrorists in Swat."
The situation along Pakistan's 1,500-mile border with Afghanistan carries high stakes for all of Pakistan and could pose an early challenge to its next leader, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The Pakistani Taliban is a loose confederation of militants looking to impose a rigid form of Islam on the nation, much as the Afghan Taliban did in their own country. U.S. drone strikes against their leaders have galvanized the militants, who have been implicated in several attacks on American targets outside Pakistan.
Mr. Sharif has set about forming the next government after a decisive victory in last week's elections, which followed a series of deadly attacks by insurgents on political rallies. He has vowed to work with Afghanistan and the U.S. as the American military continues its pullout from the region.
Few people here expect the Taliban to regain control of Swat, which is less than 90 miles from the Afghan border. But they worry that the militants there could secure a new foothold in their effort to destabilize the nation. That could create more problems for the U.S., which wants to prevent Pakistani militants from using the country as a staging ground for attacks against American interests around the world or, in the worst case, from seizing control of the government and its nuclear arms.
Pakistan's concerns are rich with irony. For more than a decade, American and Afghan leaders have accused Pakistan of sheltering Afghan Taliban commanders leading the war against U.S. forces. Now it is Pakistan that is complaining.
American officials concede that the U.S. military withdrawal has the potential to create destabilizing problems on both sides of the border.
"We are becoming more and more sensitive here in Washington to the 'mirror-safe-haven' issue," said a senior State Department official. "That's sort of an existential issue for Pakistan. So whatever we can we do using ISAF [the U.S.-led military coalition International Security Assistance Force] resources and diplomatic assets to support Pakistan's efforts to promote stability on the border and limit cross-border infiltration, we should do."
The growing instability along the border is partly a product of deep-seated mistrust that has prevented the U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan from coordinating more closely on border security. Militants have capitalized on the situation by moving around the region to avoid capture.
Eastern Afghanistan, once home to Osama bin Laden's terrorist training camps, has always been an important focus of U.S. military strategy. U.S. forces established a series of bases in the region's scenic but treacherous valleys that sought to block insurgents coming in from Pakistan from pushing toward Kabul. But major U.S.-led military offensives in the region have gradually tapered off as the coalition has shifted to a strategy focused more on training Afghan security forces.
The U.S. says it hopes to keep a small military presence in Afghanistan after 2014 to continue training and for counterterrorism operations. Last week, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said for the first time he is willing to allow the U.S. to remain on nine bases, but an agreement has yet to be completed.
"The problem is that everything you do in Afghanistan is now a risky strategy," said Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at Center for Strategic and International Studies who recently returned from a trip to Afghanistan. "There are so many variables that we can't control, and operating out of the Pakistan border area from Afghanistan is certainly an area of concern."
Afghan insurgents have already taken advantage of shifting U.S. strategy. They have reasserted control in isolated areas of Afghanistan such as Nuristan Province, a mountainous region north of Kabul and adjacent to Pakistan. Nuristan was the site of some of the most deadly assaults on U.S. forces in 2008 and 2009, attacks that helped trigger a strategic re-evaluation of the region. Now local residents and officials say the militants have sought to establish new morality squads and thwart antipolio campaigns.
American military officials viewed Nuristan as strategically irrelevantas long as the insurgency didn't extend its reach to major population centers. But the escalating American withdrawal is opening contested new ground where Afghan forces will have to establish control. And their success is in doubt.
"The question we ask ourselves is: What is [the Taliban's] reaction going to be towards the Afghan security forces when we reduce our presence?" said Maj. Phil Kiniery, who serves as operations officer in eastern Afghanistan for the U.S. Army's 1st Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division, which is responsible for 280 miles of the border with Pakistan. "And the answer is: We don't know."
So far, the Afghan army's track record has been mixed.
U.S. Lt. Col. Scott Sentell, the U.S. brigade's executive officer, was one of the soldiers who tried in 2011 to transfer control of Camp Blessing in Kunar Province to Afghan forces. The base is located in the strategic Pech River valleyonce dubbed the "Valley of Death" because mountain terrain allowed insurgents to stage deadly ambushes. Americans had to return to the base several months later to prevent the Taliban from taking over. To this day, the outcome in the strategic valley remains "inconclusive," he said.
But American views on the Afghan military are changing.
Two years ago, Maj. Kiniery said he had trouble preventing Afghan soldiers from running away from a fight. These days, he said, he has trouble keeping tabs on all the Afghan soldiers getting in battles.
"We won't see it for a while, but they will be able to outlast any insurgency," he said.
American officials admit that Afghan forces don't have the ability to patrol the entire border, which cuts through the Hindu Kush mountain range, whose peaks exceed 20,000 feet. But if both Afghanistan and Pakistan can keep insurgents from reaching their cities and towns, American military commanders say, they should be able to minimize the risks.
"I think there is no doubt that the Pakistanis probably have more capability, and that they are pressing the border more effectively than the Afghans canor ever will," said Maj. Gen. Tony Thomas, the outgoing commander of special operations forces in Afghanistan. The goal, he said, it to keep insurgents isolated in remote areas where they can do little damage.
Pakistan's generals are skeptical that Afghan soldiers will be able to fill the void left by U.S. forces.
"You cannot have peace on either side unless you have checks on both sides," said Gen. Qamar, referring to the unbridled flow of insurgents, drug smugglers and arms dealers between the two nations.
At present, border coordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan remains strained. Afghanistan has closed one border coordination center and communication is "just awful," said Maj. Kiniery. "They don't talk to each other. Their ability to coordinate is just not there."
The tensions have boiled over in recent weeks, with Afghan and Pakistan forces engaging in a series of deadly battles over a disputed border post.
Pakistani forces have established a forceful presence in Swat, a Delaware-size region that many Pakistanis remember as a vacation spot filled with apple orchards and trout streams. Officials say the biggest danger they face comes from Mullah Fazlullah, a young Pakistani Taliban commander who became known as the "Radio Mullah" for broadcasting illegal programs in Swat before the military dislodged his forces in 2009.
Swat residents worry that insurgents will take advantage of gaps in security, as they did last fall when they targeted Ms. Yousafzai, the young advocate for educating girls.
"We are putting our lives in danger," said a teacher at Ms. Yousafzai's old school. "But my fear does not cause me to discontinue my activities."
While escorting a reporter around Swat in a two-car convoy, an army captain repeatedly waved civilian cars off the road. The lead army jeep forced one driver into a drainage ditch and the captain slapped another man for taking too long to move his truck off a narrow, traffic-clogged valley road.
"We don't like to do it, but we have to do it. We don't want another Malala," the captain said, referring to Ms. Yousafzai.
Pakistan military officials estimate that the Mr. Fazlullah commands up to 1,000 Pakistani Taliban fighters based in eastern Afghanistan that operate in groups of 150 to 200. Because U.S. and Afghan forces are spread thin along the border, Mr. Fazlullah is able to move freely, sometimes driving through eastern Afghanistan in 10-vehicle convoys, said Gen. Qamar.
American officials say that they have seen no indication that he commands such a large force in eastern Afghanistan. "I do not see anybody swinging that big of a stick on this side of the border," said Gen. Thomas.
Pakistani officials thought that they had largely neutralized Mr. Fazlullah's threat until last fall, when some of his men crossed into Pakistan, stopped a school bus in Swat and shot Ms. Yousafzai in the head. The attack provoked international outrage. She survived the shooting and was flown to England for medical treatment, becoming a symbol of resistance to Taliban rule.
Pakistani officials have pressed U.S. commanders to target Mr. Fazlullah in eastern Afghanistan. Gen. Thomas said coalition officials don't have enough detailed information to track him down.
Over the past year, Pakistani Taliban fighters have used Afghanistan as staging grounds for attacks on Pakistani border posts. Pakistan has reacted by shelling Afghanistan border towns, increasing tensions.
In January, Swat was hit by its worst attack in years. A suicide bomber hit a religious center in Mingora, the region's commercial capital, killing 22.
The following month, Afghan forces reportedly captured a senior Pakistani Taliban commander in eastern Afghanistan, a few hours' drive from Swat. Three weeks ago, a bomb killed an anti-Taliban leader in Swat, and, last week, the Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack on a campaign rally in the neighboring district that killed six people.
Residents in eastern Afghanistan say they have seen an influx of Pakistani Taliban fighters. On a recent drive through the area, a taxi driver pointed out homes he said were abandoned by local residents who were afraid of the interlopers. The militants have started setting up daytime checkpoints on the main road linking Kabul and the Pakistan border, he said.
Pakistani Gen. Qamar defends his decision to shell Afghan border towns in retaliation for attacks on Pakistan border posts staged in Afghanistan. Afghan leaders have complained that civilians have been killed by the shelling. Gen. Qamar said he only orders the attacks in response to militant threats.
"If they fire, they will get fire in return," he said. "It's as simple as that. Whether that fire goes on Mr. X, Y, or Z, for me, all of them are terrorists, and I need to reply in a similar manner."
Role Reversal: Pakistan Fears - WSJ.com
MINGORA, PakistanThe busy Green Market in this scenic valley town was once known as "Bloody Square" because Taliban militants hung the bodies of opponents in the street.
The Pakistan military drove the Taliban from the area in 2009 and embarked on a campaign to restore the Swat Valley's reputation as the Switzerland of South Asia. Last year, the Norwegian ambassador hit the slopes to kick off the "Ski and Smile in Swat" festival, aimed at luring tourists back to a resort region that long ago hosted Britain's Queen Elizabeth.
But a series of jarring attacks over the past year, including the attempted assassination last fall of 15-year-old girls-education advocate Malala Yousafzai, has set off alarms for Pakistani military leaders, who worry that their hard-fought gains are slipping away.
Pakistani military officials in this remote region say there is a new catalyst for the violence: the withdrawal of U.S. forces across the border in eastern Afghanistan. Pakistani leaders are concerned that the looming end to more than a decade of U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan is emboldening the Pakistani Taliban, who have been orchestrating attacks in Pakistan from havens on the other side of the border.
"As U.S. forces pull out, there will be a vacuum," said Maj. Gen. Ghulam Qamar, commander of the Pakistan infantry division based in Swat. "There is a fear of a resurgence of terrorists in Swat."
The situation along Pakistan's 1,500-mile border with Afghanistan carries high stakes for all of Pakistan and could pose an early challenge to its next leader, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The Pakistani Taliban is a loose confederation of militants looking to impose a rigid form of Islam on the nation, much as the Afghan Taliban did in their own country. U.S. drone strikes against their leaders have galvanized the militants, who have been implicated in several attacks on American targets outside Pakistan.
Mr. Sharif has set about forming the next government after a decisive victory in last week's elections, which followed a series of deadly attacks by insurgents on political rallies. He has vowed to work with Afghanistan and the U.S. as the American military continues its pullout from the region.
Few people here expect the Taliban to regain control of Swat, which is less than 90 miles from the Afghan border. But they worry that the militants there could secure a new foothold in their effort to destabilize the nation. That could create more problems for the U.S., which wants to prevent Pakistani militants from using the country as a staging ground for attacks against American interests around the world or, in the worst case, from seizing control of the government and its nuclear arms.
Pakistan's concerns are rich with irony. For more than a decade, American and Afghan leaders have accused Pakistan of sheltering Afghan Taliban commanders leading the war against U.S. forces. Now it is Pakistan that is complaining.
American officials concede that the U.S. military withdrawal has the potential to create destabilizing problems on both sides of the border.
"We are becoming more and more sensitive here in Washington to the 'mirror-safe-haven' issue," said a senior State Department official. "That's sort of an existential issue for Pakistan. So whatever we can we do using ISAF [the U.S.-led military coalition International Security Assistance Force] resources and diplomatic assets to support Pakistan's efforts to promote stability on the border and limit cross-border infiltration, we should do."
The growing instability along the border is partly a product of deep-seated mistrust that has prevented the U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan from coordinating more closely on border security. Militants have capitalized on the situation by moving around the region to avoid capture.
Eastern Afghanistan, once home to Osama bin Laden's terrorist training camps, has always been an important focus of U.S. military strategy. U.S. forces established a series of bases in the region's scenic but treacherous valleys that sought to block insurgents coming in from Pakistan from pushing toward Kabul. But major U.S.-led military offensives in the region have gradually tapered off as the coalition has shifted to a strategy focused more on training Afghan security forces.
The U.S. says it hopes to keep a small military presence in Afghanistan after 2014 to continue training and for counterterrorism operations. Last week, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said for the first time he is willing to allow the U.S. to remain on nine bases, but an agreement has yet to be completed.
"The problem is that everything you do in Afghanistan is now a risky strategy," said Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at Center for Strategic and International Studies who recently returned from a trip to Afghanistan. "There are so many variables that we can't control, and operating out of the Pakistan border area from Afghanistan is certainly an area of concern."
Afghan insurgents have already taken advantage of shifting U.S. strategy. They have reasserted control in isolated areas of Afghanistan such as Nuristan Province, a mountainous region north of Kabul and adjacent to Pakistan. Nuristan was the site of some of the most deadly assaults on U.S. forces in 2008 and 2009, attacks that helped trigger a strategic re-evaluation of the region. Now local residents and officials say the militants have sought to establish new morality squads and thwart antipolio campaigns.
American military officials viewed Nuristan as strategically irrelevantas long as the insurgency didn't extend its reach to major population centers. But the escalating American withdrawal is opening contested new ground where Afghan forces will have to establish control. And their success is in doubt.
"The question we ask ourselves is: What is [the Taliban's] reaction going to be towards the Afghan security forces when we reduce our presence?" said Maj. Phil Kiniery, who serves as operations officer in eastern Afghanistan for the U.S. Army's 1st Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division, which is responsible for 280 miles of the border with Pakistan. "And the answer is: We don't know."
So far, the Afghan army's track record has been mixed.
U.S. Lt. Col. Scott Sentell, the U.S. brigade's executive officer, was one of the soldiers who tried in 2011 to transfer control of Camp Blessing in Kunar Province to Afghan forces. The base is located in the strategic Pech River valleyonce dubbed the "Valley of Death" because mountain terrain allowed insurgents to stage deadly ambushes. Americans had to return to the base several months later to prevent the Taliban from taking over. To this day, the outcome in the strategic valley remains "inconclusive," he said.
But American views on the Afghan military are changing.
Two years ago, Maj. Kiniery said he had trouble preventing Afghan soldiers from running away from a fight. These days, he said, he has trouble keeping tabs on all the Afghan soldiers getting in battles.
"We won't see it for a while, but they will be able to outlast any insurgency," he said.
American officials admit that Afghan forces don't have the ability to patrol the entire border, which cuts through the Hindu Kush mountain range, whose peaks exceed 20,000 feet. But if both Afghanistan and Pakistan can keep insurgents from reaching their cities and towns, American military commanders say, they should be able to minimize the risks.
"I think there is no doubt that the Pakistanis probably have more capability, and that they are pressing the border more effectively than the Afghans canor ever will," said Maj. Gen. Tony Thomas, the outgoing commander of special operations forces in Afghanistan. The goal, he said, it to keep insurgents isolated in remote areas where they can do little damage.
Pakistan's generals are skeptical that Afghan soldiers will be able to fill the void left by U.S. forces.
"You cannot have peace on either side unless you have checks on both sides," said Gen. Qamar, referring to the unbridled flow of insurgents, drug smugglers and arms dealers between the two nations.
At present, border coordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan remains strained. Afghanistan has closed one border coordination center and communication is "just awful," said Maj. Kiniery. "They don't talk to each other. Their ability to coordinate is just not there."
The tensions have boiled over in recent weeks, with Afghan and Pakistan forces engaging in a series of deadly battles over a disputed border post.
Pakistani forces have established a forceful presence in Swat, a Delaware-size region that many Pakistanis remember as a vacation spot filled with apple orchards and trout streams. Officials say the biggest danger they face comes from Mullah Fazlullah, a young Pakistani Taliban commander who became known as the "Radio Mullah" for broadcasting illegal programs in Swat before the military dislodged his forces in 2009.
Swat residents worry that insurgents will take advantage of gaps in security, as they did last fall when they targeted Ms. Yousafzai, the young advocate for educating girls.
"We are putting our lives in danger," said a teacher at Ms. Yousafzai's old school. "But my fear does not cause me to discontinue my activities."
While escorting a reporter around Swat in a two-car convoy, an army captain repeatedly waved civilian cars off the road. The lead army jeep forced one driver into a drainage ditch and the captain slapped another man for taking too long to move his truck off a narrow, traffic-clogged valley road.
"We don't like to do it, but we have to do it. We don't want another Malala," the captain said, referring to Ms. Yousafzai.
Pakistan military officials estimate that the Mr. Fazlullah commands up to 1,000 Pakistani Taliban fighters based in eastern Afghanistan that operate in groups of 150 to 200. Because U.S. and Afghan forces are spread thin along the border, Mr. Fazlullah is able to move freely, sometimes driving through eastern Afghanistan in 10-vehicle convoys, said Gen. Qamar.
American officials say that they have seen no indication that he commands such a large force in eastern Afghanistan. "I do not see anybody swinging that big of a stick on this side of the border," said Gen. Thomas.
Pakistani officials thought that they had largely neutralized Mr. Fazlullah's threat until last fall, when some of his men crossed into Pakistan, stopped a school bus in Swat and shot Ms. Yousafzai in the head. The attack provoked international outrage. She survived the shooting and was flown to England for medical treatment, becoming a symbol of resistance to Taliban rule.
Pakistani officials have pressed U.S. commanders to target Mr. Fazlullah in eastern Afghanistan. Gen. Thomas said coalition officials don't have enough detailed information to track him down.
Over the past year, Pakistani Taliban fighters have used Afghanistan as staging grounds for attacks on Pakistani border posts. Pakistan has reacted by shelling Afghanistan border towns, increasing tensions.
In January, Swat was hit by its worst attack in years. A suicide bomber hit a religious center in Mingora, the region's commercial capital, killing 22.
The following month, Afghan forces reportedly captured a senior Pakistani Taliban commander in eastern Afghanistan, a few hours' drive from Swat. Three weeks ago, a bomb killed an anti-Taliban leader in Swat, and, last week, the Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack on a campaign rally in the neighboring district that killed six people.
Residents in eastern Afghanistan say they have seen an influx of Pakistani Taliban fighters. On a recent drive through the area, a taxi driver pointed out homes he said were abandoned by local residents who were afraid of the interlopers. The militants have started setting up daytime checkpoints on the main road linking Kabul and the Pakistan border, he said.
Pakistani Gen. Qamar defends his decision to shell Afghan border towns in retaliation for attacks on Pakistan border posts staged in Afghanistan. Afghan leaders have complained that civilians have been killed by the shelling. Gen. Qamar said he only orders the attacks in response to militant threats.
"If they fire, they will get fire in return," he said. "It's as simple as that. Whether that fire goes on Mr. X, Y, or Z, for me, all of them are terrorists, and I need to reply in a similar manner."
Role Reversal: Pakistan Fears - WSJ.com
