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Rodrigo Duterte, New Philippine President

Will Rodrigo Duterte Revolutionize the Philippines' Foreign Policy?
August 14, 2016

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“The more it changes, the more it’s the same thing,” nineteenth-century intellectual Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr once lamented about the state of French politics. In the realm of foreign policy, observers do tend to adopt a similarly skeptical attitude when new leaders come into power on the back of bombastic campaign-trail statements and cliché promises of transformative change. Throughout my extensive discussions with various senior policy-makers and diplomats from across the Asia-Pacific region, I have noticed a similar attitude towards the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ new firebrand president. Yet, there is growing reason to expect a potentially seismic shift in Philippine foreign policy under the new administration.

With Duterte rapidly consolidating his position at the center of the Philippine political system, he is also in a strong position to introduce a significant foreign-policy reset, particularly with respect to China and the United States. Unlike his predecessor, Benigno Aquino, he has extended an olive branch to China,deploying former president Fidel Ramos to conduct backdoor negotiations with the Asian powerhouse. He has also welcomed massive Chinese investments in the realm of public infrastructure and downplayed territorial disputes in the South China Sea, emphasizing the necessity of separating areas of conflict from zones of convergence in mutual interests. Meanwhile, he has shown limited reticence with expressing discontent with perceived lack of American military support amid the maritime spats.

With respect to relations with America,Duterte has broken one diplomatic taboo after the other.

At one point, Duterte went so far as stating: “I would only ask the US ambassador, ‘are you with us [in the South China Sea]?’” His open expression of skepticism -- a remarkable departure from his predecessors -- seems to have gained growing support among the Philippine public as well as intelligentsia, even though America enjoys astronomically high approval ratings in the Southeast Asian country. In fact, since the campaign period, Duterte, a self-described ‘socalist’, has emphasized his preference for a more ‘independent’foreign policy, which effectively means less reliance on America. Shortly after his election victory, Duterte declared, "I will be chartering a [new] course [for the Philippines] on its own and will not be dependent on the United States."

During the campaign period, Duterte called on both American and Australian ambassadors to ‘shut their mouths’ and threatened to sever ties if elected after the two Western diplomats expressed dismay over the Filipino politician’s controversial remarks. For fiercely independent-minded Duterte, foreign powers were ‘interfering’ in the Philippines’ domestic affairs. More recently, Duterte’s insulting remarks, during another off-the-cuff episode, about US ambassador Philip Goldberg provoked diplomatic censure from Washington, which didn’t hesitate to also criticize Duterte’s full-fledged anti-crime campaign. But Duterte has refused to apologize. Upon closer inspection, what one discovers is not only some ephemeral quarreling among old friends, but instead a steady and gradual recalibration in Philippine relations with both America and China. Duterte could very well become the most consequential president in Philippine foreign policy -- and foreign powers and old allies should acknowledge it.

A month into office, Duterte has, in unequivocal terms, demonstrated his commitment to stand by his campaign-era promises -- that he means what he says. On the domestic front, we have already seen a dramatic uptick in state-led crackdown on organized crime and proliferation of illegal drugs. The country is in the midst of what Duterte has described as a ‘war on crime’, adopting an uncompromising approach to law and order challenges in the country. Over recent weeks, he has extended his anticrime campaign to the upper echelons of the society, targeting high-ranking officials, generals, judges and elected statesmen. By some estimates, in the past month as many as six hundred thousand alleged drug dealers and users have surrendered to the government. Duterte has even taken on alleged oligarchs, threatening to ‘destroy’ them lest they stop their rent-seeking practices and stop manipulating state institutions for narrow business interests.

To demonstrate his progressive bona fides, Duterte has also declared his willingness to end any large-scale mining in the country. Many mining conglomerates have seen their licenses either revoked or in danger of facing restrictions and heavy state scrutiny. Almost singlehandedly, Duterte has transformed the Philippine state into a proactive agent, taking on organized crime, crony capitalists, and major extractive industries.

To push ahead with his peace agenda in the troubled southern island of Mindanao, Duterte has considered controversial confidence-building measures, from freeing key Communist insurgent leaders to trying to shield a major Islamist insurgent leader from prosecution. Simultaneously, he has sought to win the hearts and minds of the armed forces by offering them constant moral support as well as thepromise of increasing their paltry salaries.

Though massively controversial outside the country, vast majority of Filipinos (91 percent) have expressed trust in and support for Duterte. Enjoying ‘super-majority’ support in the Congress, and set to appoint the bulk of the Supreme Court justices in coming years, Duterte is rapidly emerging as the Philippines’ most powerful president in recent memory. And this gives him significant leeway to shape the country’s domestic political landscape as well as foreign-policy trajectory for years to come.

Dancing Among Giants

Far from alienating foreign powers, Duterte seems to be at the receiving end of courtship by all major powers in the region. On one hand, the United States has indeed sought to gain the goodwill of the new president by deploying two of its most senior diplomats, Secretary of State John Kerry as well as State Department Counselor Kristie Kenney, in recent weeks. No less than U.S. president Barack Obama was the first foreign leader to congratulate and speak directly to Duterte upon his election victory.

In response, Duterte has expressed gratitude to the United States, reiterated his commitment to honoring the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) signed between his predecessor and the Obama administration, and hasreassured “our [Philippine] strong alliance with America,” Yet, it is unlikely that things will remain the same between the two allies. For Duterte, the priority is to expand Philippines’ strategic relations with fellow Asian countries, particularly Japan and China.

As the former mayor of Davao City, a bustling metropolis in the island of Mindanao, Duterte maintained robust commercial with Japanese investors as well as close diplomatic ties with the Japanese consulate. Based on my exchanges with Japanese officials, it seems that Tokyo has considerable confidence in the new Filipino president and is more than willing to expand already-blossoming strategic ties with the Philippines. Just recently, Japanese foreign minister Minoru Kiuchi visited Manila, with Tokyo pledging more than$2 billion to infrastructure development projects in the Philippines.

Crucially, Japan offered to also invest in Mindanao, Duterte’s home island, which is in desperate need of infrastructure development. Japan also offered to lease a Japanese surveillance aircraft and promised two 90-metre (295-foot) long vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard.

Duterte’s strategic compass will, however, largely point in the direction of Beijing in the meantime.

The reason is because the Filipino president is concerned about a dangerous escalation in the South China Sea, especially in light of Beijing’s growing military assertiveness, footprint in contested waters, and diplomatic offensive after suffering a massive legal defeat at The Hague. After a five-day ‘ice breaker’ trip to Hong Kong, where he met some senior Chinese officials and scholars, Duterte’s special envoy, Ramos, has received an invitation to continue with high-level negotiations in the Mainland. This sets the tone for a potentially rewarding meeting between Duterte and Chinese Premiere Li Keqiang on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit later this year.

There are already discussions of Duterte choosing Beijing as his first official state visit. It is not clear whether negotiations could head towards any mutually satisfactory deal in the near future, especially given China’s intransigent territorial position in the South China Sea, but for the Duterte administration the priority, for now, is to navigate ways to deescalate tensions and bring about a semblance of normality to bilateral ties with Beijing.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature...utionize-the-philippines-foreign-17353?page=3
 
The Chinese here will see Duterte's comments about the US Ambassador as "one step from breaking away from US Imperialism".

Funny thing is that the CCs are practicing the very same thing America had done before, during the Manifest Destiny mania.
 
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Duterte is moving things along for the Philippines' police, education and infrastructure.

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Philippines’ Duterte Proposes 12% Boost in 2017 Budget Spending
by Andreo Calonzo
August 15, 2016 — 2:10 PM AEST Updated on August 15, 2016 — 7:47 PM AEST
  • 2017 budget deficit set to rise to $10.3 billion, 3% of GDP
  • Police budget proposed to increase by 25%, education by 31%

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has asked Congress to expand the 2017 budget by 12 percent to $72 billion so he can fulfill key election promises to increase spending on police, education and infrastructure.

According to a plan submitted to the House of Representatives on Monday, the Duterte administration’s budget could widen the deficit to 478.1 billion pesos ($10.3 billion), or 3 percent of GDP, from a projected 2.7 percent this year. This would almost quadruple the 121.7 billion peso deficit recorded in 2015.

In addition to proposing an increase in infrastructure spending to as much as 7 percent of gross domestic product, the Duterte administration is planning a 25 percent increase in the police budget, and a 31 percent increase in spending on education.

Spending allocated to Duterte’s own office in 2017 would increase to 20 billion pesos ($430 million) from 2.86 billion pesos this year to support the Philippines’ hosting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit next year.

‘Golden Age’

Budget Secretary Ben Diokno said Duterte’s 7 trillion peso ($150.5 billion) spending plan was needed to make up for the lack of investment under former president Benigno Aquino and would help define Duterte’s six-year term in office as a “golden age of public infrastructure”.

While Aquino’s tight fiscal reign was credited with winning investment-grade debt ratings and overseeing the fastest economic growth since the 1970’s, some of Duterte’s cabinet members have criticized his predecessor for failing to maintain critical public services.

Along with increased spending, Duterte will ask Congress to approve a tax reform plan that will ensure his government will meet a 10 percent increase in 2017 revenue to 2.48 trillion pesos ($53 billion). Borrowing next year is expected to drop by 9.2 percent, which will help offset the spending increase.

In a speech Saturday, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez said economic growth was on target to stay within the 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent forecast. A median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the release of new economic data on Thursday said the $292 billion Asian economy grew by 6.6 percent in the second-quarter to June 30.
 
Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte promises to destroy Islamic State’s ‘baby brother’ Abu Sayyaf
AUGUST 26, 20165:18PM

“THE Punisher” has taken no time to settle in to his role and make good on his nickname.

Rodrigo Duterte, 71, swept to power in the Philippines seven weeks ago aboard promises of a crackdown on the country’s huge criminal networks.

Drug dealers were in his sights. The death toll from his crackdown on that particular industry is nearing 2000, according to some estimates.

His next focus: The Philippines’ own terror network, Abu Sayyaf, a group often referred to as Islamic State’s baby brother.

Abu Sayyaf was started in the 1990s and recently pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. They make their money from kidnappings and ransoms and this week they made headlines when they beheaded an 18-year-old hostage.

Responding to the news, Duterte pulled no punches. At a press conference in Davao City, he said he had delivered firm orders to eliminate those responsible.

“I’m sending the troops there and tell them to destroy them,” he said.

“My orders to the police and to the armed forces against all enemies of the state, seek them out in their lairs, whatever, and destroy them.”

Traditional considerations for human rights are out the window. He said exactly that during the press conference.

“So killed or what, don’t ask about human rights.”

Duterte did more than hint at the war before he was elected on May 9. And it was clear then that he would do whatever it took.

He promised “shoot-to-kill” teams would give criminals “hell” and that fish in Manila Bay would grow fat feeding on the corpses of the country’s 100,000 criminals.

His mandate included a curfew for drinking and walking in the street at night and a ban on smoking in restaurants. But it was his focus on bringing back the death penalty — abolished in 2006 — that struck a chord with voters who backed him in during a landslide election.

“I expect you to obey the laws so there will be no chaos. I will hit hard on drugs and I promise them (criminals) hell,” he said.

“If you resist, show violent resistance, my order to police will be to shoot to kill. Shoot to kill for organised crime. You heard that? Shoot to kill for every organised crime.”

His focus narrowed to Abu Sayyaf when they broadcast the beheading of Patrick Almodovar, 18, a native of Jolo, an island south of Manila.

Almodover was kidnapped on July 16 outside his family home. The government had been negotiating with his captors but could not reach an agreement.

Earlier this year, Abu Sayyaf kidnapped and murdered English-born Canadian man John Ridsdel. The beheading was condemned by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who called it “cold-blooded murder”.

Duterte’s push to eradicate crime is supported by his people, both in theory and practice. During his maiden speech he asked for their help and promised to reward them with medals and cash for shooting dead those he deemed troublemakers.

“Do your duty, and if in the process you kill 1000 persons because you were doing your duty, I will protect you.

“If you know of any addicts, go ahead and kill them yourself as getting their parents to do it would be too painful.”

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have expressed concern about the new president’s approach. But given the support he has received for turning the table on crime, a change in rhetoric appears unlikely.

Abu Sayyaf, you’ve been warned.
 
Duterte eyes 'goodwill visit' to China
By Ina Andolong, CNN Philippines
Updated 14:33 PM PHT Thu, August 25, 2016

Duterte-speech-CNNPH.jpg

President Rodrigo Duterte says he prefers to talk about the territorial dispute directly with China rather than bring it up at the ASEAN meeting in Laos next month. (file photo)


Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) — President Rodrigo Duterte said on Wednesday he is considering going on a "goodwill visit" to China in a bid to jump start bilateral talks on the territorial dispute.

The President said he prefers to discuss the territorial dispute directly with China rather than bring up the matter during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Laos, which he is attending next month.

"That has to wait because, if I act hostile now, then they might just decide not to sit in front of you and talk. Magkapikunan [This might raise tensions]," he said.

Duterte said that the summit will not be the proper venue to be "ranting" or "raising hell."

He said that a visit to China may be the better option, "Maybe a goodwill visit to their country to express our willingness to talk, be friendly and avoid war." Citing the importance of bilateral talks, he said, "There are two things, you talk, or go to war or create trouble. If you cannot afford to go to war or do some trouble there's only one (thing) left for you to do, and that is to talk. What is there to worry about?"

Ties between China and the Philippines soured over the countries' maritime dispute in the South China Sea. On July 12, an international tribunal of judges ruled in favor of the Philippines in a case against China's claims to virtually all of the South China Sea.

Former President and current special envoy to Beijing Fidel Ramos met with Chinese officials in Hong Kong this month to rekindle ties between the two countries. Ramos described the meeting as "very encouraging."
 

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