It is important for Iran to avoid military collision with USA, because such a collision will be catastrophic for Iran's future.
It will be beneficial for Iran if USA returns to JPOA, so Iran could continue selling its oil and take advantage of integration into global economy.
Iran should threaten to rapidly boost its nuclear program and develop nuclear weapons if USA does not remove sanctions and returns to JPOA after 2020 elections
What can we expect from Iran in the next decade---until 2030:
In the next decade:
1) Iran will test Qaem solid fuel SLV in 2022 and flight-test it until 2025 and will be able to deploy solid fuel ICBM that can reach US after 2025
2) IR-9 centrifuge with 50 times more productivity compared to IR-1 will become operational and will boost Iran's nuclear program and enrichment capacity in the next decade
3) Probably, while running legal nuclear program under IAEA supervision, Iran will secretly buy nuclear weapons from North Korea in the next decade
4) Bavar 373, 3rd Khordad and other air defense systems will be mass produced and deployed in large numbers creating multilayered air defenses. Probably Iranian variant of Pantsir air defense system will be unveiled in near future
5) Iran will double its arsenal of ballistic missiles---old variants like Shahab will be removed from arsenal and new models like Fateh-313, Dezfoul, Persian-Gulf missile, Khorramshahr will be deployed in very large numbers. Maneuvering warheads that can penetrate anti-ballistic missile defenses and hit target with high precision will be unveiled and mass produced in the next decade
6) Cruise missile arsenal will increase dramatically
7) New advanced UAVs will be unveiled
8) F-313 will see its flight and Iran will seek cooperation with China to turn F-313 into real 5th generation fighter
9) Civilian Iranian passenger aircraft will be unveiled in 2026
10) Iranian Air Force will withdraw most of its very obsolete aircrafts and by 2030 Iran will have 50-70 J-31s or Su-57s
11) 3000 tons advanced submarine will be unveiled together with 7000 ton destroyer in the next decade
12) Shahed-216 heavy attack helicopter will be unveiled and mass produced and deployed in large numbers
13) Karrar tank will be mass produced and deployed in large numbers together with new APCs and IFVs
14) Bushehr Unit 2 and Unit 3 will become operational....1 more nuclear power plants will be built until 2030 giving Iran 4000MW of nuclear energy
Political changes until 2030:
1) With China's growth, US power will decline as we will be living in a more multi-polar world in 2030. As baby boomers retire and US budget deficit grows, US federal debt is projected to grow to 40trillion$ by 2030 or 170% of US GDP according to think tank Mauldin Economics
2) China will become more powerful and will balance US in the world and in the Middle East, while US will pivot to Asia
3) Saudi Arabia will decline: 90% of exports and 80% of budget revenues of SA comes from oil and because of shale oil, prices will be lower than Saudis need to balance their budget. Saudi budget can be balanced if oil price is 90$ per barrel, but prices will be much lower. Saudi Arabia runs large budget deficits since 2014 and it has already exhausted huge portion of its Reserve Funds. SA will continue running large budget deficits due to lower oil prices and it will exhaust its reserve funds and run into huge debts. By 2030 Saudi Arabia will be in a very bad financial situation with exhausted reserves, huge debts and weak military and economy.
4) Turkish economy will continue to grow and its military will be modernized. Turkey will turn into a regional enemy of Iran
5) Iran will solidify its influence in Lebanon/Syria/Iraq and these countries will integrate their economies and infrastructure. Iran will deploy military bases in these countries or will support proxy forces.
So Iran needs 10 more years of peace to modernize its military, boost its economy, solidify influence in neighboring countries and live in a world where USA is no longer a bullying superpower, but rather a great power that is balanced by China
Your opinion: what will happen in the next decade???How ME and the world will look like in 2030??? Have I missed something?
It will be beneficial for Iran if USA returns to JPOA, so Iran could continue selling its oil and take advantage of integration into global economy.
Iran should threaten to rapidly boost its nuclear program and develop nuclear weapons if USA does not remove sanctions and returns to JPOA after 2020 elections
What can we expect from Iran in the next decade---until 2030:
In the next decade:
1) Iran will test Qaem solid fuel SLV in 2022 and flight-test it until 2025 and will be able to deploy solid fuel ICBM that can reach US after 2025
2) IR-9 centrifuge with 50 times more productivity compared to IR-1 will become operational and will boost Iran's nuclear program and enrichment capacity in the next decade
3) Probably, while running legal nuclear program under IAEA supervision, Iran will secretly buy nuclear weapons from North Korea in the next decade
4) Bavar 373, 3rd Khordad and other air defense systems will be mass produced and deployed in large numbers creating multilayered air defenses. Probably Iranian variant of Pantsir air defense system will be unveiled in near future
5) Iran will double its arsenal of ballistic missiles---old variants like Shahab will be removed from arsenal and new models like Fateh-313, Dezfoul, Persian-Gulf missile, Khorramshahr will be deployed in very large numbers. Maneuvering warheads that can penetrate anti-ballistic missile defenses and hit target with high precision will be unveiled and mass produced in the next decade
6) Cruise missile arsenal will increase dramatically
7) New advanced UAVs will be unveiled
8) F-313 will see its flight and Iran will seek cooperation with China to turn F-313 into real 5th generation fighter
9) Civilian Iranian passenger aircraft will be unveiled in 2026
10) Iranian Air Force will withdraw most of its very obsolete aircrafts and by 2030 Iran will have 50-70 J-31s or Su-57s
11) 3000 tons advanced submarine will be unveiled together with 7000 ton destroyer in the next decade
12) Shahed-216 heavy attack helicopter will be unveiled and mass produced and deployed in large numbers
13) Karrar tank will be mass produced and deployed in large numbers together with new APCs and IFVs
14) Bushehr Unit 2 and Unit 3 will become operational....1 more nuclear power plants will be built until 2030 giving Iran 4000MW of nuclear energy
Political changes until 2030:
1) With China's growth, US power will decline as we will be living in a more multi-polar world in 2030. As baby boomers retire and US budget deficit grows, US federal debt is projected to grow to 40trillion$ by 2030 or 170% of US GDP according to think tank Mauldin Economics
2) China will become more powerful and will balance US in the world and in the Middle East, while US will pivot to Asia
3) Saudi Arabia will decline: 90% of exports and 80% of budget revenues of SA comes from oil and because of shale oil, prices will be lower than Saudis need to balance their budget. Saudi budget can be balanced if oil price is 90$ per barrel, but prices will be much lower. Saudi Arabia runs large budget deficits since 2014 and it has already exhausted huge portion of its Reserve Funds. SA will continue running large budget deficits due to lower oil prices and it will exhaust its reserve funds and run into huge debts. By 2030 Saudi Arabia will be in a very bad financial situation with exhausted reserves, huge debts and weak military and economy.
4) Turkish economy will continue to grow and its military will be modernized. Turkey will turn into a regional enemy of Iran
5) Iran will solidify its influence in Lebanon/Syria/Iraq and these countries will integrate their economies and infrastructure. Iran will deploy military bases in these countries or will support proxy forces.
So Iran needs 10 more years of peace to modernize its military, boost its economy, solidify influence in neighboring countries and live in a world where USA is no longer a bullying superpower, but rather a great power that is balanced by China
Your opinion: what will happen in the next decade???How ME and the world will look like in 2030??? Have I missed something?
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