Rise of China, US Civil War "Reconstruction," and Marshall Plan

[Dungeness]

I disagree.

Taiwanese companies built the billion-dollar manufacturing plants on mainland China. This provides jobs to mainland Chinese construction companies.

Taiwanese companies pay annual real estate taxes. Those Taiwanese companies are an important part of the tax base for the municipality that they are located in.

Taiwanese companies provide jobs to millions of mainland Chinese employees. Employees with high-paying jobs spend money that invigorate the local economy.

Taiwanese companies pay local shipping companies to transport and warehouse their products. This means more jobs for mainland Chinese.

Without the Taiwanese to provide the billions of dollars of investments and millions of jobs, China today would look like the poor China from 1949-1976.

Taiwanese companies have helped mainland's development in 80s-90s, but it was not their primary goal. You are making it like China would have never risen without Taiwan, and it is ridiculous.

 

[Martian2]

Taiwanese companies have helped mainland's development in 80s-90s, but it was not their primary goal. You are making it like China would have never risen without Taiwan, and it is ridiculous.

I'm saying Taiwanese investment and exports of Taiwanese high-tech products from mainland China provided the hard currency export-earnings to modernize China.

I said the effect is the modernization of China. I never claimed the individual Taiwanese companies had the goal of modernizing China.

Individual Taiwanese companies are not a government. They could not have acted in pursuit of a coordinated policy.

My claim is the US$400 billion investment from Taiwanese companies and their exports modernized China. Taiwan is the catalyst and the "change agent." I never said Taiwan acted as part of a government policy.
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Yes, I am saying China would have taken 200 years to modernize without Taiwan's help.

From 1949-1976, China was among the world's poorest nations. The Chinese per-capita income was ranked #126 in the world in 1980. During the 27 years from 1949-1976, China made no headway in modernization.

Today, China is ranked #74 in nominal per-capita income. Taiwan was the difference.

From 1949-1976, Mao Zedong tried the go-it-alone approach. Mao Zedong tried to modernize China and it was a complete failure.

After 1976, Deng Xiaoping created the conditions to attract huge investments from Taiwan. Worldwide, people call it the Chinese Economic Miracle. It is called a Miracle, because the development of mainland China was far-fetched.

In the history of the world, no Third World country has made the leap to industrial superpower in 40 years. Thus, I am saying China could never have achieved full industrialization and compete in high-tech industries without Taiwan.

Taiwan's role in China's modernization is very clear.

Firstly, Taiwan provided about US$400 billion in capital for investments in mainland China. China itself was running a trade deficit and had no capital to invest.

Secondly, Taiwan holds a cumulative 150,000 USPTO patents for the last 40 years. China holds about one-fifth the Taiwan total. Without Taiwan's patents, China cannot export many high-tech products. For example, Taiwanese patents control 90% of worldwide notebook computer exports. Another example is Taiwan's AUO owning four critical LCD manufacturing patents. A third example is TSMC allowing SMIC to get off lightly after TSMC won the lawsuit against SMIC for trade secret theft.

Thirdly, Taiwan had the buyers for the Taiwanese high-tech exports.

Thus, Taiwan was instrumental along the complete chain of high-tech exports from mainland China.

Taiwan owned the patents, invested the huge capital to build the manufacturing plants on mainland China, and Taiwan had the buyers for the Taiwanese high-tech exports from mainland China.

China could never have gotten to where it is today without Taiwan.
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Look at the graph of China's trade balance below. China did not start to earn a significant trade surplus until after 2004.

During the 26 years from 1978-2004, Taiwan provided the capital, patents, and technology to build up China's export industries. Without those 26 years of patient investment from Taiwan, China would have no trade surplus today.

 

[TaiShang]

Do you mind not going off-topic?

The question is very simple. I will ask you one last time.

Identify Hong Kong's major export from China that helps China earn vast amounts of hard currency for Chinese internal modernization.

In two attempts, your answer so far is that you can't name a single significant Hong Kong export from mainland China.

Let me make this easy for you. I will name a few Taiwanese exports from mainland China to help you get the gist.

Taiwans exports 150 million notebook computers from mainland China.
Taiwan's AUO has 8.5G LCD display manufacturing plants on mainland China that exports LCD displays all over the world.
Taiwan's TSMC and UMC have mainland Chinese manufacturing plants that produce computer logic-chips, which are embedded into electronic products and sold all over the world.
Taiwan manufactures digital cameras in mainland China for worldwide export.
Taiwan's PCB (ie. printed circuit board) companies manufacture PCBs in mainland China for export.
Taiwan MediaTek's yearly 450 million chips ("System-on-Chip solutions for wireless communications, HDTV, DVD and Blu-ray") are incorporated into electronic products assembled in Taiwan and mainland China for worldwide export.

See? This is easy. I can keep naming Taiwanese production on mainland China that earns huge sums of export earnings for China.

Why can't you name a single important Hong Kong export from mainland China?

Are you willing to agree with me that Hong Kong is not a worthwhile investor in mainland China and has played no role in China's economic modernization?


I disagree.

Taiwanese companies built the billion-dollar manufacturing plants on mainland China. This provides jobs to mainland Chinese construction companies.

Taiwanese companies pay annual real estate taxes. Those Taiwanese companies are an important part of the tax base for the municipality that they are located in.

Taiwanese companies provide jobs to millions of mainland Chinese employees. Employees with high-paying jobs spend money that invigorate the local economy.

Taiwanese companies pay local shipping companies to transport and warehouse their products. This means more jobs for mainland Chinese.

Taiwanese companies train the local mainland Chinese employees in high-tech. Over time, this results in competition for experienced mainland Chinese employees and wages go up.

Without the Taiwanese to provide the billions of dollars of investments and millions of jobs, China today would look like the poor China from 1949-1976.

Clearly, mainland China has benefited tremendously from the vast infusion of Taiwanese investment money and technology. Today's China has a yearly trade surplus of US$500 billion. Pre-1976 China had a trade deficit. What was the difference? Taiwan.

Perhaps, my friend, one of the reasons why Taiwan appears to be so dominant in the Mainland technology and innovation market, other than historical reasons such as Western sanctions is that it has traditionally been a one-way street in many cases when it comes to cross-Straits relations. In this case, Mainland China has always been more lenient (and rightfully so) and, let me say, brotherly to us on the Taiwan island than some of our elite politicians (and certain local/indigenous or indigenoused factions) have been to Mainland China.

Hence, China, especially under ECFA first stage, has opened up many industries to Taiwan while Taiwan remained closed, and it is the same today, and perhaps worse than it was during Ma administration.

Remember the trade in services agreement during the last months of Ma and how some radical factions riled up? That would still be a one-way street but at least open Taiwan up for some Mainland investment.

Certainly, in the worst years of China's development under existential threats, Taiwan investment and share of technology has been key and very significant. But, this could have already corrected itself in terms of investment balance if Taiwan also had been, at least, half as lenient as Mainland China has always been.

But I understand the reason and, hopefully, our brothers on this forum also understands it -- which is Mainland China's historical anchor status. China's core is Mainland China. Hence, even if a province is break away and misbehaves, Mainland shows extreme leniency.

I said the effect is the modernization of China. I never claimed the individual Taiwanese companies had the goal of modernizing China.

Individual Taiwanese companies are not a government. They could not have acted in pursuit of a coordinated policy.

My claim is the US$400 billion investment from Taiwanese companies and their exports modernized China. Taiwan is the catalyst and the "change agent." I never said Taiwan acted as part of a government policy.

 

[Martian2]

Perhaps, my friend, one of the reasons why Taiwan appears to be so dominant in the Mainland technology and innovation market, other than historical reasons such as Western sanctions is that it has traditionally been a one-way street in many cases when it comes to cross-Straits relations. In this case, Mainland China has always been more lenient (and rightfully so) and, let me say, brotherly to us on the Taiwan island than some of our elite politicians (and certain local/indigenous or indigenoused factions) have been to Mainland China.

Hence, China, especially under ECFA first stage, has opened up many industries to Taiwan while Taiwan remained closed, and it is the same today, and perhaps worse than it was during Ma administration.

Remember the trade in services agreement during the last months of Ma and how some radical factions riled up? That would still be a one-way street but at least open Taiwan up for some Mainland investment.

Certainly, in the worst years of China's development under existential threats, Taiwan investment and share of technology has been key and very significant. But, this could have already corrected itself in terms of investment balance if Taiwan also had been, at least, half as lenient as Mainland China has always been.

But I understand the reason and, hopefully, our brothers on this forum also understands it -- which is Mainland China's historical anchor status. China's core is Mainland China. Hence, even if a province is break away and misbehaves, Mainland shows extreme leniency.

I don't see why the mainland Chinese forum members are complaining.

Mainland China had the last laugh. Mainland China acquired all of Taiwan's computer notebook manufacturing plants. You can't move those significant investments. They're stuck to the land.

Mainland China is the long-term winner of Taiwanese tech investments on mainland China.

Taiwanese shareholders earned the short-term profits. Taiwanese workers lost their high-tech jobs. Taiwanese cities lost their high-tech tax base.

Mainland China won as big parts of Taiwan's industrial base was hollowed out.

There is nothing to complain about. Mainland China has a massive annual trade surplus of US$500 billion and the Taiwanese trade surplus is only $50 billion. Since 1976, things have been turned upside down. Mainland China holds all of the economic cards now.

I'm only discussing the history of China's economic rise, because it is relevant to other countries that try to follow in China's footsteps. It looks impossible to replicate the conditions for China's rise.

 

[TaiShang]

I don't see why the mainland Chinese forum members are complaining.

Mainland China had the last laugh. Mainland China acquired all of Taiwan's notebook manufacturing plants. You can't move those significant investments. They're stuck to the land.

Mainland China is the long-term winner of Taiwanese tech investments on mainland China.

Taiwanese shareholders earned the short-term profits. Taiwanese workers lost their high-tech jobs. Taiwanese cities lost their high-tech tax base.

Mainland China won as big parts of Taiwan's industrial base was hollowed out.

There is nothing to complain about. Mainland China has a massive annual trade surplus of US$500 billion and the Taiwanese trade surplus is only $50 billion. Since 1976, things have been turned upside down. Mainland China holds all of the economic cards now.

There may be some minor misunderstandings on everybody's part. Hopefully, we will come to an understanding that there is little practical difference between Shenzhen's contributions to "China" and Taiwan's contributions.

I would also say that Mainland China holds the absolute future trump cards of development. Taiwan is in a sense of being stuck for a few years. Many surveys show lots of Taiwan youth want to end up in Mainland China not just because they need money, but because they need excitement about future. They do not want to go to a foreign country, unlike what they parents did.

This should tell us something.

In the bigger historical picture, it is China that really matters. Taiwan's immense contributions can be scientifically proven, as you have been doing, and they are one of the essential factors to Mainland China's explosive growth, but who says it has only benefited those Taiwan companies that invested or only those in Mainland China.

The sons and daughters of those Taiwan investors are probably now roaming across Mainland China today.

Hence, it is either everybody's benefit, or everybody's loss.

 

[Viet]

You're delusional. The US and Russia bombed German cities to rubble.

To win the war, the US and Russia had to bomb German industrial production until the Germans couldn't manufacture any more war equipment.

Furthermore, the US opened its market to German cars to allow the Germans to earn hard currency. Without US assistance, Germany's economy would never have recovered.

How many bombs were dropped on Germany? How much were infrastructure and industrial basis destroyed by bombing campaign?

You are not only ignorant but clueless. The real strength of Germany economy lies on 1 million small and medium enterprises. If you want to destroy Germany industrial base you must bomb not only some 30 major companies but one million targets lying all over parts of the country.

 

[Martian2]

How many bombs were dropped on Germany? How much were infrastructure and industrial basis destroyed by bombing campaign?

You are not only ignorant but clueless. The real strength of Germany economy lies on 1 million small and medium enterprises. If you want to destroy Germany industrial base you must bomb not only the major companies but one million targets lying all over parts of the country.

Did you read my previous citation on Germany?

They had NO FOOD to eat.

You talk about industrial production? Are you crazy? The Germans were starving to death and had to rely on US CARE food packages. The issue wasn't German post-war industrial capability. The real issue was whether the US would give the Germans enough food to live.

I suggest you read the citation headline again.

CARE packages prevented starvation in post-war Germany | Deutsche Welle

The Germans were pre-occupied with BASIC SURVIVAL.

 

[Viet]

Did you read my previous citation on Germany?

They had NO FOOD to eat.

You talk about industrial production? Are you crazy? The Germans were starving to death and had to rely on US CARE food packages. The issue wasn't German post-war industrial capability. The real issue was whether the US would give the Germans enough food to live.

I suggest you read the citation headline again.

CARE packages prevented starvation in post-war Germany | Deutsche Welle

The Germans were pre-occupied with BASIC SURVIVAL.

But nobody died by hunger. In contrast to glorious China middle of a peacetime period.

 

[Martian2]

But nobody died by hunger. In contrast to glorious China middle of a peacetime period.

You're going off-topic.

By the way, residual German post-war production was useless. No one wanted to buy parts for a German tank or military aircraft.

 

[XiangLong]

If you want to destroy Germany industrial base you must bomb not only some 30 major companies but one million targets lying all over parts of the country.

That is a straight up lie. The good majority of Germany's industrial capability, since its industrialization, has been centered around the Ruhr, which is a pretty condensed area. During the negotiations at Versailles, it was targeted by prime minister Aristide Briand himself as war reperations and to utterly destroy Germany economically. Same again when the Allies bombed it to smithereens during the Second World War. And today as well, if you wanted to destroy German production capabilities, the Rhine-Ruhr area would be the first thing that would come to mind.

 

[Dungeness]

I don't see why the mainland Chinese forum members are complaining.

Mainland China had the last laugh. Mainland China acquired all of Taiwan's computer notebook manufacturing plants. You can't move those significant investments. They're stuck to the land.

Mainland China is the long-term winner of Taiwanese tech investments on mainland China.

Taiwanese shareholders earned the short-term profits. Taiwanese workers lost their high-tech jobs. Taiwanese cities lost their high-tech tax base.

Mainland China won as big parts of Taiwan's industrial base was hollowed out.

There is nothing to complain about. Mainland China has a massive annual trade surplus of US$500 billion and the Taiwanese trade surplus is only $50 billion. Since 1976, things have been turned upside down. Mainland China holds all of the economic cards now.

I'm only discussing the history of China's economic rise, because it is relevant to other countries that try to follow in China's footsteps. It looks impossible to replicate the conditions for China's rise.

Personally, I am grateful of the significant role that Taiwan played in China's rise, especially in the early days of China's opening up. It is you who blew Taiwan's contribution to mainland's development out of proportion, which irked members from "Left Shore".

 

[Jlaw]

I'll go first. Taiwan exports 150 MILLION notebook computers from mainland China every year. The last Taiwanese notebook computer manufacturing plant in Taiwan closed in 2005 and moved to China (citation: Taiwan's last notebook factory closes | Taipei Times (September 19, 2005)).

Now, it's your turn. Tell me, what does Hong Kong export from mainland China?

You're speaking about Taiwan investments in China from the 80s to 90s. However you forgot to mention the Chinese achievement between 1949-1978. China was virtually on her own but achieved things that Taiwan still cannot achieve today such as building her own jet fighter, turbine engines, indigenous built cars, nuclear tech both civilian and military, agricultural tech, etc
There'snno denying that Taiwan invested in China but it's for profit and not really for the betterment of Chinese society.

 

[Martian2]

You're speaking about Taiwan investments in China from the 80s to 90s. However you forgot to mention the Chinese achievement between 1949-1978. China was virtually on her own but achieved things that Taiwan still cannot achieve today such as building her own jet fighter, turbine engines, indigenous built cars, nuclear tech both civilian and military, agricultural tech, etc
There'snno denying that Taiwan invested in China but it's for profit and not really for the betterment of Chinese society.

Taiwan's contribution to mainland China's modernization is understated, not overstated.

Mainland China made a huge achievement to develop the atomic bomb (1964), hydrogen bomb (1967), and DF-5 ICBM (1971).

However, the electronics to develop stealth fighters requires expertise in semiconductors, electronics, and software. Taiwan is an expert in specialty chemicals, which would be useful in researching the material science for a stealth coating. Also, it requires a massive amount of money.

Taiwan has hollowed out a big part of its industrial base and shared it with China. The Taiwanese-enabled mainland-China multibillion dollar trade surpluses allowed China to fund its military research and development.

China's development of the WS-10A turbofan engine, miniaturization of thermonuclear warheads, advanced sensors for aircraft and ships, etc. happened decade(s) after 1978. Where did the money and semicondcutor/electronics expertise come from? Taiwan played an important role.

For example, years ago the Wall Street Journal wanted to know who was developing China's most advanced aircraft radar computer chip. They found a name. The Wall Street Journal traced it to a P.O. Box in China. They waited three months before the person showed up. They asked him about his background and found out he was Taiwanese. I would guess the Taiwanese had a Ph.D. in radars and electronics.

The Wall Street Journal concluded their article by saying that it is unknown how many Taiwanese were working in mainland China's arms industry. They said the Taiwanese names and mainland Chinese names are identical. There is no way to easily distinguish the Taiwanese on mainland China.

Taiwan's strength is semiconductors and electronics. It would be an amazing coincidence if mainland China developed advanced missile and aircraft sensors without any Taiwanese engineer's help. Mainland China's "smart" weapons were developed decade(s) after 1978.

The number and contribution of Taiwanese engineers to the mainland Chinese military development are unknown.

 

[Jlaw]

Taiwan's contribution to mainland China's modernization is understated, not overstated.

Mainland China made a huge achievement to develop the atomic bomb (1964), hydrogen bomb (1967), and DF-5 ICBM (1971).

However, the electronics to develop stealth fighters requires expertise in semiconductors, electronics, and software. Taiwan is an expert in specialty chemicals, which would be useful in researching the material science for a stealth coating. Also, it requires a massive amount of money.

Taiwan has hollowed out a big part of its industrial base and shared it with China. The Taiwanese-enabled mainland-China multibillion dollar trade surpluses allowed China to fund its military research and development.

China's development of the WS-10A turbofan engine, miniaturization of thermonuclear warheads, advanced sensors for aircraft and ships, etc. happened decade(s) after 1978. Where did the money and semicondcutor/electronics expertise come from? Taiwan played an important role.

For example, years ago the Wall Street Journal wanted to know who was developing China's most advanced aircraft radar computer chip. They found a name. The Wall Street Journal traced it to a P.O. Box in China. They waited three months before the person showed up. They asked him about his background and found out he was Taiwanese. I would guess the Taiwanese had a Ph.D. in radars and electronics.

The Wall Street Journal concluded their article by saying that it is unknown how many Taiwanese were working in mainland China's arms industry. They said the Taiwanese names and mainland Chinese names are identical. There is no way to easily distinguish the Taiwanese on mainland China.

Taiwan's strength is semiconductors and electronics. It would be an amazing coincidence if mainland China developed advanced missile and aircraft sensors without any Taiwanese engineer's help. Mainland China's "smart" weapons were developed decade(s) after 1978.

The number and contribution of Taiwanese engineers to the mainland Chinese military development are unknown.

We understand about chips and semiconductor. But China's first indigenous warplane was in the late 50s during a time where conflict with Taiwan was just on the horizon. During these turbulent years when the world sanctioned China there were no choice for China except to depend on itself

 

[Martian2]

I think Taiwan is still important today to China's modernization.

The Chinese government is tired of importing expensive memory chips and wants to build its own 3D-NAND flash memory chips.

How does the Chinese government move forward in its goal of producing advanced computer memory chips?

The answer is the same as it has been for the last 40 years.

Hire a Taiwanese expert. The Taiwanese expert knows all of the experienced engineers on Taiwan that he needs to assemble a team to build advanced 3D-NAND flash memory.
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Chinese 3D-NAND flash coming this year? | eeNews Analog (May 8, 2017)

"[China's] Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) intends to be making 32-layer 3D-NAND flash memory chip by the end of 2017, according to a Digitimes article quoting Charles Kau, acting chairman of the Wuhan based company.
...
Kau is a former chairman of Inotera, a Taiwanese memory that has been acquired by Micron. And about 50 Taiwanese engineers are said to have joined YMTC."