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Reviving strategic depth policy

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Wednesday February 18, 2009

According to Wikipedia a strategy is a plan of action designed to achieve a particular goal. It is different from a tactic which deals with the conduct of an engagement. A strategy is concerned with how different engagements are linked. In other words, how a battle is fought is a matter of tactics: whether it should be fought at all is a matter of strategy. In this context, a strategy is framed on its aims, strength, extent, and profundity; collectively termed "strategic depth". It applies in many areas such as military, political, financial or trade.

Gen Zia was the first leader of Pakistan who coined this term in the context of politics wrapping it with religion. After Afghanistan was invaded by the Soviets, he looked at Afghanistan as a source of political/religious strategic depth for Pakistan. He saw Pakistan’s strength in a stronger and more stable Afghanistan. Once, when he was at the zenith of his power, he told a colleague who was actively involved in facilitating ‘Jihad’ in Afghanistan, that if he was given a choice to prefer the interest of Pakistan or Afghanistan he would prefer the latter. Such was his commitment to the westward strategic depth.

However, in the process he made one major mistake by making one sect of Islam the base of that depth. It backfired soon when the other sects, the spiritualists and the ‘moderates’ rejected such a narrow-minded religious view. Had he presented it in a holistic way, it would have won the hearts and minds of the public at large. When the same model was presented by a ‘moderate’ Benazir Bhutto in the 1990s which helped create the Taliban, it was supported by the majority of the public. Looking at the geographical location of Pakistan, it is pertinent to find that it is the western border with Afghanistan which makes the strategic depth productive in more than one way.

For example; China at our northern border has been our historical friend. It helped us construct the silk route to boost our economy through land trade. To promote the economy of both the countries further, a plan is underway to link China with the Arabian Sea through Gawadar. This has politico-economic strategic depth which is devoid of any religious icing. India sits on our eastern border giving us little or no chance to create such a depth. On the contrary, it would like to squeeze us militarily, politically and economically and keep pushing us with its confrontational tactics to accept living in the shadow of its dominion. To the south we have the sea which links us with the rest of the world. This link will get stronger especially with the Middle East after Gawadar becomes fully operational.

This leaves us with the western border. Even in the good old days of RCD, we failed to expand economic depth with Iran. I remember walking through the streets of Mashad or Tehran in sixties; one could see shops full of Indian goods and none from Pakistan. Our relationship was limited to good wishes and friendly gestures, making political depth shallow and economic closeness trivial. Religion never nurtured a bond between the two countries; thanks to hardcore theologians on both sides.

The other country on the western border is Afghanistan- the doorway to Central Asian States. It was this part of the western border where the importance of strategic depth was appreciated by gen. Zia in the eighties and Benazir in the nineties. The successive governments would have followed this policy if America was not attacked on 9/11 and Musharaf had not taken a U-turn, closing the door of the depth. In December 2002, his government signed an agreement with the Afghan government in Kabul excluding Pakistan from the affairs of Afghanistan, shutting any window of theorem along this line. It is believed that it was signed on the insistence of the US. To please Pakistan, America included India in the loop by creating a post of special envoy for South Asia. It made our thinkers pleased hoping that America would become an arbitrator on the Kashmir issue. It never happened despite our somersaults on this important national matter. India stayed steadfast on its original stand.

The new government in America made a major deviation from its old policy and created a post of special envoy exclusively for Afghanistan and Pakistan, naming veteran diplomat Richard Brooke for the post. Some analysts are worried about this development saying that America was put under pressure by pro-Indian lobbies in Washington as a result of President Obama’s commitment to address the Kashmir issue. Be that so; it might not be as bad as it is projected, provided Pakistan takes a more realistic approach and seeks a bigger regional political standing by breaking away from the stalemate politics and the restricted economic scope of South Asia. After all, during the coming years, the new administration in America is going to realize that while solving the problem of terrorism in Pakistan, the Kashmir issue will keep popping up. So while finding a solution for terrorism in the tribal belt of Pakistan, Americans would be forced to look into the problem of Kashmir. There is a strong possibility that we will see President Obama going back on the promise he made on the issue during his election campaign. So here is an opportunity for Pakistan, provided by America, to adopt a ‘strategic depth policy’ and take full advantage of the new development.

According to an analyst writing on the subject, “Although there is a sense of realisation within the Pakistani military establishment that the country’s Afghan policy went wrong, there remains a deep belief about the inevitability of Pakistan’s strategic links to Central and West Asia within the institution.” He further says “the policy would make it easier for the current Pakistani government to sell its liberal policies to the people by citing the example of other secular Muslim countries such as Syria, Jordan and the UAE.” The strategy becomes especially feasible when the moderates ANP in NWFP and PPP in Baluchistan run the governments. This time, the revival of strategic depth will be based on political, economic and cultural norms with non-sectarian Islam as its wrapping. Such a policy would be acceptable to the vast majority of the public in Pakistan, Afghanistan, CAS and indeed America.
 
A very well-balanced article. I actually agree that Pakistan and Afghanistan are natural allies given the passage of time and the correct political environment. The last paragraph sums up the solution succintly.
 
^^good read but a little too late - for pakistan's mil planners, strategic depth means room to manoever in the military sense, or more candidly as per Gen. Aslam Beg, withdraw pak assets (strike corps) into Afghanistan to live and fight another day - absolute nonsense - how he became a General is beyond me.

pakistan's always had a strong economic link with afghanistan even when we were at each others throats politically. for afghanistan there is a strong cultural link with the NWFP so it was natural that all of afghanistans trade (legal and smuggled) went through karachi (and still does).

now with FATA in turmoil and there seems to be no quick end in sight, india's has started the encirclement of Pakistan by having access to a airbase in tajikistan and is completing a highway from kabul to the iranian border linking up to the persian gulf port of bander abbas (a rival to gwader - iran is not happy with the development of gwader). india's and other countries trade would then go this route, totally bypassing the Pakistan route (which remains the most economical but most dangerous).

in the near future it is possible that countries like the US, EU will also use the bander abbas route to the central asian states.

so the "great game" goes on as pakistan has been beaten - game, set and match!
 
completing a highway from kabul to the iranian border linking up to the persian gulf port of bander abbas (a rival to gwader - iran is not happy with the development of gwader). india's and other countries trade would then go this route, totally bypassing the Pakistan route (which remains the most economical but most dangerous).

in the near future it is possible that countries like the US, EU will also use the bander abbas route to the central asian states.
I think the port is Chabahar, not Bander Abbas.

There is also talk of a railway link from Chabahar linking with Afghanistan and Tajikistan(ex-Soviet States), CAR, etc.

so the "great game" goes on as pakistan has been beaten - game, set and match!
No. It depends whether Pakistan in the future has friendly relations with Afghanistan or not. If it does, and if Pakistan is able to secure peace in Baluchistan along with rapid development of Gwadar, they would still be very much in the game.
 
^^good read but a little too late - for pakistan's mil planners, strategic depth means room to manoever in the military sense, or more candidly as per Gen. Aslam Beg, withdraw pak assets (strike corps) into Afghanistan to live and fight another day - absolute nonsense - how he became a General is beyond me.

pakistan's always had a strong economic link with afghanistan even when we were at each others throats politically. for afghanistan there is a strong cultural link with the NWFP so it was natural that all of afghanistans trade (legal and smuggled) went through karachi (and still does).

now with FATA in turmoil and there seems to be no quick end in sight, india's has started the encirclement of Pakistan by having access to a airbase in tajikistan and is completing a highway from kabul to the iranian border linking up to the persian gulf port of bander abbas (a rival to gwader - iran is not happy with the development of gwader). india's and other countries trade would then go this route, totally bypassing the Pakistan route (which remains the most economical but most dangerous).

in the near future it is possible that countries like the US, EU will also use the bander abbas route to the central asian states.

so the "great game" goes on as pakistan has been beaten - game, set and match!

FM sahib,

While I agree with your views on Beg and Gul, I disagree that we are necessarily any worse off that we woudl have been had the Taliban not been supported.

While the turmoil in FATA is a major issue in terms of developing our potential as a trade and energy corridor, the fact is that FATA is only part of the puzzle. The larger issue was always stability in Afghanistan, and it remains stability in Afghanistan. We really had little control over the civil war and the lawlessness that Afghanistan was rife with after the Soviet withdrawal, so there was little potential that could have been realized even if we had not supported the Taliban.

Even the local businessmen were complaining about the crime and insecurity, let alone get multinationals to invest billions in major projects that would pass through, and be held hostage to, numerous fiefdoms run by warlords and criminals.

One major reason for intervening was to get stability and peace. Even now, with Afghanistan still in the throes of an insurgency, the opportunity is not lost, provided we can get our house in order along with NATO success in stabilizing Afghanistan. The ethnic and business relationships between the Pashtun of Afghanistan and Pakistan will inherently ensure that if Pakistan is stable, we will get the majority of the business - the route through Pakistan has been used for centuries by Afghan's and will continue to be if it remains secure.

Iran will get some business, more if Afghanistan stabilizes before FATA, or FATA becomes more treacherous than Afghanistan, but we can still keep a large part of the pie if we get our house in order.

So I do not think that all is lost yet, Pakistan is still very much a player in the 'new Great Game'.
 
but we can still keep a large part of the pie if we get our house in order.

i hope you are right, but by the time we get our house in order, the pie will be eaten!
 
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