If I were to be dishonest and claim to be some 'great mind', I would say: 'To me a lot of the events in Afghanistan were a foregone conclusion'. But barely a few weeks ago I had been saying here that Afghanistan should be divided along ethnic lines and that the southern part along the Durand Line and a path to Tajikistan to be given to the Taliban in either a politically (internationally divided country like Sudan / South Sudan) or in a very lose federation. I thought (and still think) the more 'liberal' Afghans should not be condemned to a tribal code of conduct hiding behind 'Islam'. But things have moved too fast, too radically different from what I had thought just a few weeks ago.
In short, we are all arm-chair generals here. But I bet we still behave better than 'General' Bakshi from India. Hahahahah!
PS. The AfghanEye guys did address the credentials of Masood Jr before the news of the surrender was announced in the video. One of them said that he is a graduate of Sandhurst Military Academy. But the other said--no battle experience. Yes, Masood Jr = Bilawal Zardari! Two Pappus!