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Residents begin to leave Saint Martin’s Island as Cyclone Mocha looms

Thousands urged to evacuate, seek shelter as powerful Cyclone Mocha bears down on Bangladesh, Myanmar​

MAY 13, 2023 / 5:55 PM / CBS/AP

Volunteers in Bangladesh's coastal districts were using loudspeakers to urge people to seek shelter on Saturday as the delta nation braced for an extremely severe cyclone, which is expected to slam ashore in Bangladesh and Myanmar in the next 24 hours.

U.N. agencies and aid workers prepositioned tons of dry food and dozens of ambulances with mobile medical teams in sprawling refugee camps with more than 1 million Rohingya who fled persecution in Myanmar.

The camps at Cox's Bazar are in the path of Cyclone Mocha, which was closing in on the coast of southeastern Bangladesh and Myanmar with wind speeds of up to 135 miles per hour and gusts of up to 150 mph, the Indian Meteorological Department said. It's projected to make landfall on Sunday between Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar.

Cyclone Mocha

Bangladeshi volunteers warn people to leave their homes and take shelter due to ahead of Cyclone Mocha's landfall in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, on May 13, 2023.
ZABED HASNAIN CHOWDHURY/NUR

PHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES

Bangladesh, with more than 160 million people, has prepared more than 1,500 cyclone shelters. The navy said it's keeping ready 21 ships, maritime patrol aircraft and helicopters for rescue and relief operations.

In Myanmar, rains and winds were picking up since Friday and prompted more than 10,000 people in villages around Sittwe in Rakhine state to seek shelter in sturdy buildings including monasteries, temples and schools, said Lin Lin, the chairman of the Myittar Yaung Chi charity foundation.

"Currently, about 20 places have been arranged for people to stay in Sittwe. But because there were more people than we expected, there was not enough food for the next day. We are still trying to get it," he said.

Speaking from Cox's Bazar across the border in Bangladesh, the International Organization of Migration's deputy chief of mission, Nihan Erdogan, said Bangladesh put in place a massive preparedness plan.

He said his agency had trained 100 volunteers in each of the 17 refugee camps on how to alert rescuers using flag warning signals when heavy rains, floods and strong winds lash the region. "Emergency shelter materials and hygiene kits are readily available, and personal protective gear has been provided to all volunteers."

The World Health Organization put 40 ambulances and 33 mobile medical teams on standby at Cox's Bazar, the agency's spokesperson Margaret Harris said.

Authorities in Bangladesh said heavy rains from the cyclone could trigger landslides in Chattogram and Cox's Bazar and three other hilly districts — Rangamati, Bandarban and Khagrachhari.

Bangladesh, which is prone to natural disasters such as floods and cyclones, issued the highest danger signal for Cox's Bazar. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department warned the cyclone could cause severe damage to the lives and properties in eight coastal districts.

Mizanur Rahman, director general of the Department of the Disaster Management, said they asked the local authorities in 20 districts and sub-districts to make swift preparations. He said they were particularly concerned about a small coral island called Saint Martins in the Bay of Bengal, where efforts were underway to protect thousands of inhabitants.

Myanmar said in its weather bulletin that the cyclone was moving toward the coast of Rakhine state near Sittwe, which was put under the highest weather alert.

The World Food Program said it prepositioned enough food to cover the needs of more than 400,000 people in Rakhine and neighboring areas for one month.

"We are preparing for the worst, while hoping for the best. Cyclone Mocha is heading to areas burdened by conflict, poverty, and weak community resilience," said WFP's Myanmar deputy director, Sheela Matthew. "Many of the people most likely to be affected are already reliant on regular humanitarian assistance from WFP. They simply cannot afford another disaster."

In February and March, at least 190 people were killed when Cyclone Freddy made landfall twice in southern Africa, according to numbers from the United Nations.

In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis hit Myanmar with a storm surge that devastated populated areas around the Irrawaddy River Delta. At least 138,000 people died and tens of thousands of homes and other buildings were washed away.

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune city, said cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are becoming more intense more quickly, in part because of climate change.

The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported on Friday that thousands of people living along the western coast of Rakhine state were evacuated.

Both Indian and Bangladesh authorities said they were expecting heavy to very heavy rainfall in Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Andaman Sea, parts of India's remote northeast, and across Bangladesh from Saturday night.

Climate scientists say cyclones can now retain their energy for many days, such as Cyclone Amphan in eastern India in 2020, which continued to travel over land as a strong cyclone and caused extensive devastation. "As long as oceans are warm and winds are favorable, cyclones will retain their intensity for a longer period," Koll said.

Cyclones are among the most devastating natural disasters in the world, especially if they affect densely populated coastal regions in South Asia.
 

Cyclone Mocha rapidly intensifies ahead of devastating landfall in Myanmar and Bangladesh​

The tropical cyclone is near Category 5 strength and may be the strongest to strike Myanmar in more than a decade​

imrs.php

By Ian Livingston
May 13, 2023 at 11:04 a.m. EDT

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Powerful Cyclone Mocha approaches shore after rapid strengthening. (Tropical Tidbits)

Cyclone Mocha, called an extremely severe cyclonic storm by the India Meteorological Department, rapidly intensified over the past day and is now in the final stretch before careening into Asia.

With sustained winds around 150 mph, Mocha is equivalent to a strong Category 4 hurricane on a 1 to 5 scale. It will continue to strengthen for a while longer before some slow weakening in the final few hours before landfall.

Mocha is expected to reach the coast during midday or afternoon Sunday in the local region. The anticipated landfall is presently near or north of Sittwe, Myanmar, a city about 50 miles south of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.

Evacuations of about half a million people are ongoing in the region, focused on northern Myanmar and southern Bangladesh. Locations near the landfall zone can expect disastrous winds, extreme surge and rainfall, as well as a freshwater flood threat that wanders farther inland with the storm.

Saturday storm update​

The latest intensity estimate from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), as of Saturday evening local time in the region, pegged Cyclone Mocha at 150 mph (130 knots) sustained. This is less than 10 mph shy of Category 5.


Mocha exhibits a textbook presentation, with intense convection surrounding an open eye amid relative symmetry. It has so far become the fourth strongest storm on record in the region this year, and may end up the strongest storm to strike Myanmar since Nargis in 2008, which killed more than 100,000 in the country.

An atmospheric wave near China helping steer it northward, rather than weakening it markedly, appears to be enhancing Mocha’s outflow, which can keep intensification going despite what might often be disruptive wind shear.

“Conditions are favorable for further intensification, with low (5-10 kts) vertical wind shear, warm [sea surface temperatures] and strong poleward outflow,” wrote the JTWC in a Saturday update. “Additional near-term intensification is likely.”

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Landfall is expected to be near or north of Sittwe, Myanmar. It could be as far north as the Bangladesh border, a few dozen miles past the city.

The JTWC forecast calls for Mocha to reach peak intensity about 12 hours before landfall, with some minor weakening as it reaches shore Sunday afternoon local time. Their official landfall intensity is 130 mph (115 knots) sustained.

There remains some disagreement as to its landfall intensity. The storm is likely to come ashore as a major hurricane equivalent of Category 3 or higher. It could reach shore as a Category 4 or higher. Mocha continues to be stronger than forecast in the short term, which may mean a stronger system as it reaches land.

Likely impacts​

Even if Mocha peaks before landfall, the impacts are largely set given the short time until it strikes, as well as the intensity of the storm.

Massive waves — up to 45 feet high near the center but subdued by about half at landfall — accompany a storm surge of (6.5 to 13 feet) 2 to 4 meters above normal water height, with locally higher possible. The worst surge will occur near and south of landfall as onshore winds pile up the water.


“Even if Mocha weakens to a Cat 3 at landfall, its surge will likely be Cat 4-level,” wrote hurricane expert Jeff Masters.

Near-shore winds sustained above 100 mph, gusting perhaps as high as twice that, will probably shred many things in their path, knocking over structures and stripping trees of vegetation. The most destructive winds are associated with the eyewall of the storm, a band around the center that largely impacts places within about 25 miles of the eye. Devastating wind threats wane as the storm heads inland, but some damaging gusts are likely to progress several hundred miles from shore.

Along with water surging in from the ocean, water falling from the sky will cause widespread flooding.

A large swath of at least 5 to 10 inches of rain is likely for much of the northern Myanmar coastal region and into Bangladesh. Potentially flooding rain then moves inland toward parts of India and ultimately toward Tibet. Some spots, especially higher elevations inland, could see as much as a foot or more of rain from the storm through early next week.

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Precipitation forecast from the European weather model for Mocha as it heads inland. (weathernerds.org)

Concerns because of topography and ongoing war​

Bay of Bengal storms are historically the deadliest on Earth. This can be attributed to the funneling effect of the bay as storms head north, typically scorching water temperatures that fuel rapid intensification, and socio-economic influences.

The likely landfall zone sits at the mouth of several rivers, meaning land in the area is particularly low lying and with minimal slope headed inland. As with many Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones, the ability of deep destructive surge to head well past the coastline is a major concern.

Ongoing war in Myanmar has also led to the creation of several large mega camps for the displaced. There is potential for hundreds of thousands of unhoused individuals to face the fury of surge, wind and rain from Mocha, including up to 1 million people in a camp just north of the border in Bangladesh.


The northernmost Myanmar state bordering Bangladesh, seemingly facing the brunt of the storm, is also home to many displaced people and has been a frequent location of violence in recent years.

“Of particular worry is the situation facing 232,100 people who are displaced across Rakhine,” wrote the U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs on Friday.

While the storm will weaken rapidly after making landfall, heavy rain is likely to continue inland, leading to river flooding and the potential for landslides into early next week.
 
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I am not so worried about the structural integrity of primary structures (i.e., beams, columns, load bearing wall, etc.). Building compliant to the regular building code should be able to keep standing through a cyclone. My concerns are related to:
1. secondary/tertiary elements of buildings (e.g.- canopies, windows, etc.) other pieces of infrastructure (electric poles, wiring, street lights, etc.) flying off and striking people and damaging other infrastructure.
2. Flood protection

Relevant codes, standards and regulations need to be tailored for coastal areas to minimise damage.
The responsible govt body must be supported by many kinds of design offices involving civil, architecture, mechanical, or electrical engineering.

BD system has not been developed that way. It will take more years to put into force such a system. The country has not developed its codes and standards. It is also not following international codes developed in the US or England.

So, how do you come up with solutions by only following the Rules of Thumb Bangladesh style or Hasina style? Problems will remain unresolved.
 
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Earlier tourist gathered at Cox’s Bazar sea beach to watch Mokha!

 
@waz @The Eagle @LeGenD

How can you let this lindu making death wishes on Bangladeshis

Well all for naught I guess. Cyclone made landfall and weakened into depression in Arakan Myanmar.

He has to wait for another day.


One thing I don't get is why people are calling this cyclone "Mo-kha" ? :laugh:

It's "Mo-ka" (Mocha) which is a coffee or hot drink flavor.
 
Well all for naught I guess. Cyclone made landfall and weakened into depression in Arakan Myanmar.

He has to wait for another day.


One thing I don't get is why people are calling this cyclone "Mo-kha" ? :laugh:

It's "Mo-ka" (Mocha) which is a coffee or hot drink flavor.
What happen to PDF? It's infested with lindus and the mods are not doing anything.
 
Well all for naught I guess. Cyclone made landfall and weakened into depression in Arakan Myanmar.

He has to wait for another day.


One thing I don't get is why people are calling this cyclone "Mo-kha" ? :laugh:

It's "Mo-ka" (Mocha) which is a coffee or hot drink flavor.
There is an international or regional team which decides the naming of each cyclone.

For example, the next cyclone has already been given a name irrespective of the time period it hits the shores.

Names come from various languages. I do not know Mocha is from which language.
 
Well all for naught I guess. Cyclone made landfall and weakened into depression in Arakan Myanmar.

He has to wait for another day.


One thing I don't get is why people are calling this cyclone "Mo-kha" ? :laugh:

It's "Mo-ka" (Mocha) which is a coffee or hot drink flavor.

The name comes from the Yemeni city of Mokha which was one of the earliest places of coffee cultivation/popularisation, hence the name "mocha" in english, but the Arabic pronounciation isn't mocha but mokha.
 
The name comes from the Yemeni city of Mokha which was one of the earliest places of coffee cultivation/popularisation, hence the name "mocha" in english, but the Arabic pronounciation isn't mocha but mokha.

English just transliterates it with a ch, but pronounces it with a k sound as well.

K just gets transliterated as ch sometimes in English like in Kristos ---> Christ etc, chord, choir etc
 
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