Researchers warn India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill 100 million

[Numerous]

Researchers seem a bit biased. Indian parliamentarians getting attacked and then pakistan using the first nukes too...

 

[TeesraIndiotHunter]

WOW! you guys have been really been fed some fantasy stories about the 'mighty PAF' and 'FEB 27'...is it in the same lines of 'declared victories' during the 1971 war?

Let's take a quick fact-based review of what happened.

Allegedly, Pakistan based ISI asset bombed and killed indian 40+ soldiers and injured almost 100 in one strike.

india was embarrassed and yearned for revenge. After almost a month, it launched an aerial incursion into Pakistan, Pakistan Air Force intercepted the indian incursion, indians launched their payload (BIG MISTAKE! Should not have done so if you didn't want the humiliation and beaten down coming your way)---the payload did not hit the intended target and fell in open. indian air incursion hit few trees with no casualties (as confirmed by every single international source and satellite imagery analysis by Think Tanks, Defence Analysts, Foreign Policy Councils etc)

In return, Pakistan announced beforehand that it will be extracting revenge for indian incursion. Within hours of that announcement, PAF launched six airstrikes across indian territory, including one air-strike on indian brigade headquarter, Air strikes were kept symbolic to demonstrate PAF's resolve and capability without causing further mass casualities on indian side. Indian military, humiliated and embarrassed at this point, tried to intercept Pakistan Air Force (PAF) but PAF shot down responding indian jets without sustaining a single loss of its own, captured indian air force's shot-downed wing commander and paraded it on national TV causing national humiliation to india, indians were SO panicked during the ariel confrontation that they shot down their own helicopter and further killed 7 military personnel of their own , as PAF was busy owning junk indian military yet again in the air. Pakistan then subsequently inflicted air space ban on india and caused indian aviation almost $1 billion in losses!

The world and international/neutral media reported on the confrontation with following headlines:

Indian claims of an airstrike in Pakistan increasingly look like an embarrassing failure: Business Insider

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/ind...strike-but-it-likely-missed-completely-2019-3

After India losses Air Battle to Pakistan, Questions Arise about its 'Vintage' military: NY Times

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/asia/india-military-united-states-china.html

New York Times even called the whole fiasco as "humiliating episode for India" on their official social media post. Check it for yourself

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10151837289974999

Images of indian pilot in Pakistan's custody after getting shot down by Pakistan Air Force were seen by tens of millions of people globally....

All indian theories about hitting targets or shooting down any Pak jets were debunked by neutral experts, even our in-house neutral expert @gambit (who is an ex-USAF fighter pilot, and also served as an instructor for the best air force in history).

In short: india was utterly dominated, humiliated, and beaten down in the tactical confrontation of 27th Feb. These are facts and the world reported it as such (Loss, embarrassing, humiliating were the worlds world media used for india).

Your crying and bitching won't help. Would it?

 

[Ultima Thule]

WOW! you guys have been really been fed some fantasy stories about the 'mighty PAF' and 'FEB 27'...is it in the same lines of 'declared victories' during the 1971 war?

why you includes 71 war in this thread for face saving, and tell me what fantasy stories we heard from PAF, i think your vedic Mighty IAF told you fantasy stories that abhi's Mig-21 shot down our F-16D, and why you interfere our internal matters in 71, and you created/supported Mukhti Bahani, and also there were disperse/minimal assets of PAF/PN in east Pakistan @illusion8

 

[Hamza913]

is it in the same lines of 'declared victories' during the 1971 war?

Maybe it's "in the same line" as Prithviraj's victory over Muhammad.

 

[Peaceful Civilian]

i dont think there is going to be a war between india and pakistan. pak wont do anything in IOK and india wont do anything in AK.

Situation can change anytime. What if Indian army moves with 700,000 troops to cross LOC in Pakistan kashmir. Kashmir is hot point. It can force us to use tactical nuke on our own land if our land occupied by their forces.
Also any false flag operation, or attack in indian parliment can trigger war.

 

[Kaleem.61]

imaran khan has accepted in his statements that Pakistan cannot fight both the conventional or nuclear war with India

He also said it will destroy both countries.

What if Indian army moves with 700,000

It require 180k liters of milk for making tea....... and the gas shortage!! Plz ask them to come in summer.

They are always welcome, we always say come and try it. And believe me they have tried recently.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

He also said it will destroy both countries.


It require 180k liters of milk for making tea....... and the gas shortage!! Plz ask them to come in summer.

They are always welcome, we always say come and try it. And believe me they have tried recently.

India will never try to get Pak kashmir by forcefully.

These are just lip services which does by both countries leaders with no harm.....

 

[litman]

Situation can change anytime. What if Indian army moves with 700,000 troops to cross LOC in Pakistan kashmir. Kashmir is hot point. It can force us to use tactical nuke on our own land if our land occupied by their forces.
Also any false flag operation, or attack in indian parliment can trigger war.

and why indian army would invade AK? to start a full scale war?india knows our red lines very well. they know we will respond with full force with nukes even. so why they would like to receive and fire about a hundred nuclear warheads and turn subcontinent into mars.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

I call bullshit. According to our estimates 600 million + would die just in indian cities in the south.

You count pakistani numbers it would easily reach 800 million deaths.

If you count radiation deaths in burma bangladesh nepal china Afghanistan Tajikistan iran krgystan oman death toll can easily reach 1 billion plus in full niclear war between india and pakistan.

Its not called mutual death for nothing.

 

[Psychic]

Good.

Much less hungry mouths to feed.

 

[Tumba]

I call bullshit. According to our estimates 600 million + would die just in indian cities in the south.

You count pakistani numbers it would easily reach 800 million deaths.

If you count radiation deaths in burma bangladesh nepal china Afghanistan Tajikistan iran krgystan oman death toll can easily reach 1 billion plus in full niclear war between india and pakistan.

Its not called mutual death for nothing.

the report is much accurate than ur estimation...
Nuclear weapons which Pakistan have the lowest yield is sub kilotons and highest yield for similar chinese speced warhead is around 100-200 kt...
and numbers around 150

India doesn’t have sub kiloton warheads and similar Russian yield should be from 200-250kt with same numbers

Highest yield from these weapons if air busted over 500-600 meters will yield maximum destruction and will totally devastate an area of only 10 square km including the wave the radiation is after effect which I am not counting... 10 square km area is around 2 km radius ... 4 km circle can not be a city buster weapon..
Unless both India Pakistan tests 2-5 megaton weapons cities will recover in time...
Seems like 100 million include radiation effects also...

India due to its Air Defences cover might take out atleast 20-30% of warheads which Pakistan will throw which this study doesnt mention...

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

the report is much accurate than ur estimation...
Nuclear weapons which Pakistan have the lowest yield is sub kilotons and highest yield for similar chinese speced warhead is around 100-200 kt...
and numbers around 150

India doesn’t have sub kiloton warheads and similar Russian yield should be from 200-250kt with same numbers

Highest yield from these weapons if air busted over 500-600 meters will yield maximum destruction and will totally devastate an area of only 10 square km including the wave the radiation is after effect which I am not counting... 10 square km area is around 2 km radius ... 4 km circle can not be a city buster weapon..
Unless both India Pakistan tests 2-5 megaton weapons cities will recover in time...
Seems like 100 million include radiation effects also...

India due to its Air Defences cover might take out atleast 20-30% of warheads which Pakistan will throw which this study doesnt mention...

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Researchers warn India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill 100 million
AFPUpdated October 03, 2019
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In a new paper published on Wednesday, researchers envisage a scenario which envisaged more than 100 million immediate deaths, followed by global mass starvation after megatons of thick black soot block out sunlight for up to a decade. — AFP/File
The year is 2025 and militants have attacked India's parliament, killing most of its leaders. New Delhi retaliates by sending tanks into Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

Fearing it will be overrun, Islamabad hits the invading forces with its battlefield nuclear weapons, triggering the deadliest conflict in history — and catastrophic global cooling, with temperatures not seen since the last Ice Age.

Read: 'Kashmir now a flashpoint, has potential of turning into nuclear war'

This scenario was modelled by researchers in a new paper published on Wednesday, which envisaged more than 100 million immediate deaths, followed by global mass starvation after megatons of thick black soot block out sunlight for up to a decade.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
It comes at a time of renewed tensions between the two South Asian rivals, which have fought several wars over the Kashmir Valley and are rapidly building up their atomic arsenals.

They currently each have about 150 nuclear warheads at their disposal, with the number expected to climb to more than 200 by 2025.

“Unfortunately it's timely because India and Pakistan remain in conflict over Kashmir, and every month or so you can read about people dying along the border,” Alan Robock, a professor in environmental sciences at Rutgers University, who co-authored the paper in Science Advances, told AFP.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped the autonomy of occupied Kashmir in August, following which his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan warned the United Nations last week that the dispute could escalate into nuclear war.

The two countries last fought a border conflict in February, but they pulled back from the brink after Pakistan returned a downed pilot to India.

India has a “no first strike” policy, but reserves the right to mount a nuclear response to any hit by weapons of mass destruction.

Pakistan has declared it would only use nuclear weapons if it could not stop an invasion by conventional means or were attacked first with nuclear weapons.

The authors wrote that although their scenario had Pakistan pulling the trigger first, they did not mean to imply they believed this was more likely.

Mass starvation
Based on their current populations and the urban centres that would be likely targeted, the researchers estimated up to 125 million could be killed if both countries expended the bulk of their highest yield weapons.

Around 75-80 million people were killed in World War II.

This most extreme scenario would involve the use of 100 kiloton weapons, more than six times as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima.

A single airburst from such a bomb could kill two million people and injure 1.5 million — but most of the deaths would occur from the raging firestorms that followed the blast.

“India would suffer two to three times more fatalities and casualties than Pakistan because, in our scenario, Pakistan uses more weapons than India and because India has a much larger population and more densely populated cities,” the paper said.

As a percentage of its urban population, though, Pakistan's losses would be about twice those of India.

But nuclear Armageddon would be only the beginning.

The research found that the firestorms could release 16 million to 36 million tonnes of soot (black carbon) into the upper atmosphere, spreading around the world within weeks.

The soot in turn would absorb solar radiation, heating the air up and boosting the smoke's rise.

Sunlight reaching the Earth would decline 20 to 35 per cent, cooling the surface by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30pc.

Worldwide food shortages would follow, with the effects persisting up to 10 years.

“I hope our work will make people realise you can't use nuclear weapons, they are weapons of mass genocide,” Robock told AFP, adding the paper lent more evidence to support the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Johann Chacko, a columnist for Quartz India and doctoral student at SOAS in London, said the work “helps the global community evaluate the cost of nuclear war for everyone, not just the combatant nations,” particularly its climatic impacts.

But, he added: "There's very little in the history of Indo-Pakistan kinetic conflict to suggest that leadership on either side would continue escalating until they annihilated the other."

the coommon factor in all these analysis by the west on this debate is

that Nuclear capable Pakistan is bad. and only solution to Kashmir issue is Pakistan doersnt have nuclear capability
and its only Pakistani nukes that are a cause of concern for the possible death of millions.
India is very conveniently and silently eased out of the discussion by these experts

 

[Pakistani Fighter]

the coommon factor in all these analysis by the west on this debate is

that Nuclear capable Pakistan is bad. and only solution to Kashmir issue is Pakistan doersnt have nuclear capability
and its only Pakistani nukes that are a cause of concern for the possible death of millions.
India is very conveniently and silently eased out of the discussion by these experts

Bcz India is conventionally superior with large economy and reserves. The country which is overpowered or its resources starts to deplet will use Nukes first and that looks Pakistan on paper

 

[Slayer786]

The danger of a war will come in the next Indian election year, which is only a few years away. An incident like Pulwama might happen again in IOK.