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Report: Bangladesh to overtake Malaysia by 2050

bluesky

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Report: Bangladesh to overtake Malaysia by 2050
  • Tribune Online Report
  • Published at 12:02 PM February 08, 2017
  • Last updated at 10:10 PM February 08, 2017

By 2050, Bangladesh's GDP at PPP terms will overtake Malaysia
Bangladesh has the potential to be among the fastest growing economies in coming years, which will help it take 28th place among the world’s most powerful economies by 2030.

The country will benefit from its youthful and fast growing working-age population, boosting domestic demand and output, according to an analysis from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

A PwC report titled “The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?” also predicts that Bangladesh could rise further in the ranking by achieving an average annual growth of around 5% over the next 34 years.

The report ranked 32 countries by their projected global gross domestic product by purchasing power parity (PPP).

PPP estimates of GDP adjust for price level differences across countries, providing a better measure of the volume of goods and services produced by an economy as compared to GDP at current market exchange rates, which is a measure of value.

Bangladesh ranked 31st among the world’s 32 largest economies in 2016, that together account for around 85% of global GDP.

Emerging market economies will drive global growth and eventually increase their share of world GDP, the report says. During this period, there will be a shift in global economic power.

“We project that the world economy will double in size by 2042, growing at an annual average rate of around 2.6% between 2016 and 2050,” the PwC report adds.

It also predicts that the E7 economies – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – would occupy almost 50% of the world GDP by 2050, while the G7’s share would decline to only just over 20%.

Findings by the PwC, one of the world’s largest professional-services firms, show that China, India and the US would be at the top of the table.

China is already the top country in terms of PPP. India has been projected to be the world’s second largest economy, beating the US in GDP by PPP terms before 2050.

During this period, Bangladesh will see impressive growth that will push it to the 23rd place.

Bangladesh, India and Vietnam have the potential to be the fastest growing economies between 2016 and 2050.

But realising Bangladesh’s growth potential depends on sustained investment and reform.

“Growth in these countries is driven even more by real GDP per capita growth, suggesting capital investment and technological progress will deliver real labour productivity enhancing benefits,” the report says.

“For these countries to realise this potential, growth needs to be supported by sustained economic reforms, strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals, institutions and, crucially, mass education to ensure their rapidly growing working populations contribute productively to long term economic growth”.

By 2030, the country’s projected GDP by PPP will stand at $1.324 trillion and is expected to rise to $3.064 trillion by 2050, ahead of Malaysia.
 
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This is really not something to be proud of....that too by 2050?...and a projection? :coffee:

Why focus on the overtaking of Malaysia anyway? What have they done particularly to you that set off this instance of inferiority complex?
 
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No big deal as BD has 5 times the population of Malaysia.
This is really not something to be proud of....that too by 2050?...and a projection? :coffee:

Why focus on the overtaking of Malaysia anyway? What have they done particularly to you that set off this instance of inferiority complex?
It would not take 2050 to cross Malaysia in GDP. Malaysia and Bangladesh's GDP is 302 billion and 226 billion dollar respectively in 2016.Malaysia is growing 4 percent and Bangladesh is 7 percent.It will take another 10 years to cross.

2026 GDP with current growth rate
Malaysia-302x1.04^10=464 billion
Bangladesh-226x1.07^10=475 billion.
 
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It would not take 2050 to cross Malaysia in GDP. Malaysia and Bangladesh's GDP is 302 billion and 226 billion dollar respectively in 2016.Malaysia is growing 4 percent and Bangladesh is 7 percent.It will take another 10 years to cross.

2026 GDP with current growth rate
Malaysia-302x1.04^10=464 billion
Bangladesh-226x1.07^10=475 billion.

This is what they are talking about:

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-the-world-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf

ujUly1w.jpg


IMF short term projection:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=80&pr.y=7&sy=2016&ey=2021&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=548,513&s=NGDPD,PPPGDP&grp=0&a=

Average yearly nominal growth for 2016 - 2021:

MAL: 11.4%
BD: 8.9%

Average yearly PPP growth for 2016 - 2021:

MAL: 7%
BD: 8.9%

By 2026 assuming these same growth rates hold:

MAL GDP nominal = 911.5 billion USD
MAL GDP PPP = 1686 billion USD

BD GDP Nominal = 533 billion USD
BD GDP PPP = 1455 billion USD

So no, your projections for 2026 are wrong since you clearly dont understand what nominal growth rate represents (and how its different from real growth which should not be used for projecting nominal GDP levels) and what PPP growth rate represents either....or which of these are susceptible to the largest amount of variation in long term projections and why.

At a 2% differential PPP growth, at the earliest the PPP level of Malaysia would be surpassed by BD around 2035 (which still fits in with PwC overall projection). It will be around 2040 onwards if the overall growth levels decrease too which is probably what PwC has also accounted for.
 
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It would not take 2050 to cross Malaysia in GDP. Malaysia and Bangladesh's GDP is 302 billion and 226 billion dollar respectively in 2016.Malaysia is growing 4 percent and Bangladesh is 7 percent.It will take another 10 years to cross.

2026 GDP with current growth rate
Malaysia-302x1.04^10=464 billion
Bangladesh-226x1.07^10=475 billion.
That is if the economy grows 7% all the way.But as economy grows larger,the growth rate tends to decrease.
 
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So no, your projections for 2026 are wrong since you clearly dont understand what nominal growth rate represents (and how its different from real growth which should not be used for projecting nominal GDP levels) and what PPP growth rate represents either....or which of these are susceptible to the largest amount of variation in long term projections and why.
I know the difference between nominal and real gdp growth.I have used real gdp growth for simplification irrespective of future national currency exchange rate of two countries.And I am not too fond of measuring country's GDP on PPP term.PPP is only significant at per capita level.I am not telling Bangladesh will cross Malaysia definitely within 10 years,but it will not take that long of 2050 given growth differential.
Average yearly nominal growth for 2016 - 2021:

MAL: 11.4%
BD: 8.9%

Average yearly PPP growth for 2016 - 2021:

MAL: 7%
BD: 8.9%
These nominal growth figure you have calculated from IMF projection. Is Malaysian currency expected to gain so much against dollar that it will grow more in nominal term despite lower real GDP growth rate than Bangladesh in 2016-2021 period?You need to put some more information like projected nominal and real gdp growth rate for 2016-2021 period and relative strength of Taka and Ringgit.
 
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PPP is grossly miscalculated for Bangladesh. Bangladesh should overtake Malaysia in nominal term within short period.
 
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I have used real gdp growth for simplification irrespective of future national currency exchange rate of two countries.

Thats a terrible assumption to make given you can see how much Malaysia currency may have been inflating/deflating and appreciating/depreciating against USD for whatever factors.

You can never use real growth figures for projection of current USD (nominal) figures (and expect to be taken seriously). First of all real growth happens in the local currency of the country minus the inflation. In BD case it would be Taka. No USD, or any other currency comes into the final calculation of real growth of an economy....the intermediary steps that do involve foreign currencies would be in the BoP which in BD case is a small part of its economy to begin with.

And I am not too fond of measuring country's GDP on PPP term.PPP is only significant at per capita level.

Hence why more people pay attention to PwC (among others) than you :P

You literally just listed a huge problem with nominal figures (by applying real growth to it wrongly....given such real growth is measured on Taka basis for BD)...yet you diss PPP which effectively tries to convert closer to real growth on international level.

Ever wonder why BD PPP growth and nominal growth rates are about the same for next batch of years....but Malaysia has much lower PPP growth than its nominal USD growth?

What is per capita beyond dividing by the number of people? Per capita/aggregate does not increase/decrease the utility of their respective cross-comparison figures whether they be nominal or PPP.

I am not telling Bangladesh will cross Malaysia definitely within 10 years,but it will not take that long of 2050 given growth differential.

Sorry you are not PwC....and I trust PwC, IMF, World Bank, WEF and the others more than I do you....given you just applied real growth rate (taka-based) projection to nominal GDP (USD based). There can often be huge conversion factor between the two that is highly variable...hence why Indian GDP in pure nominal terms of USD in one year grew near 30% IIRC and another year pretty much flatlined....but the PPP growth and real growth were both much more steadier.

These nominal growth figure you have calculated from IMF projection. Is Malaysian currency expected to gain so much against dollar that it will grow more in nominal term despite lower real GDP growth rate than Bangladesh in 2016-2021 period?You need to put some more information like projected nominal and real gdp growth rate for 2016-2021 period and relative strength of Taka and Ringgit.

Hence this whole exercise (which trust me will get even more complicated for projections the further you take it and project it in nominal) is avoided and bypassed by using PPP forecast...to get really the only efficient way to project this long term.

i.e How much is the real economy (in Taka) growing per year and how much are price levels in the price level basket changing per year and how is that basket itself evolving with time (both WRT the world's largest economy and superpower).... and use this information to project (using however many derivatives you have resolution for). PwC probably could even present confidence levels and bands, which would make their report better but probably less graspable to average layman.

@LA se Karachi
 
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Why focus on the overtaking of Malaysia anyway? What have they done particularly to you that set off this instance of inferiority complex?
Err.....Malaysia did well in last two decades, I guess. Maybe that's why? Overtaking a country in terms of gdp which has around 1/6th population can hardly be called a feat though.

And also don't delve too much into these projections. They might give you a good idea about how a country is doing...but the ones that project 10,20,40 years into the future are rarely accurate.
 
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PPP is grossly miscalculated for Bangladesh. Bangladesh should overtake Malaysia in nominal term within short period.
Yes,PwC used this undercounted PPP GDP of Bangladesh for the next 33 years.This is a big problem with such a long time projection.If correct ppp gdp figure is used in case of Bangladesh,than their projection will certainly showed BD among the top 20 economy by 2050.This PPP undercount problem of BD will remain up until LDC graduation.Bangladesh is unique with such a large economy living with LDC family.Next largest LDC economy is Sudan have only one third the size of BD.Most of LDC have only a few billion dollar economy with heavily dependent on foreign aid and land locked geography.
 
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@UKBengali

my bad

btw, nothing special about Malaysia. the near peer of Bd in terms of population is Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Phillipine, Vietnam.
 
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So Pakistan is going to be the 15th largest economy ...hmm I think this will happen for Pakistan before 2030.
 
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