EVERY Sept 6, Pakistan marks Defence Day to celebrate the determination of the nation and its armed forces to defend the country against India’s aggression in 1965. The war lasted only 17 days, and peace was restored by the Tashkent Agreement of 1966. As happens in most wars, there were no real winners. India was unable to penetrate Pakistan’s defences. Pakistan could not liberate Jammu and Kashmir illegally occupied by India.
Regrettably, the experience of 1965 war did not prevent the two countries from fighting another war in 1971, leading to the separation of East Pakistan. In 1999, another limited war took place on the Kargil heights.
However, in this century, the two neighbours have never fought a major war though they came close to it during the military stand-off of 2001-02. One reason is the nuclear deterrence that both countries established in May 1998. The other main reason is that the nature of war has changed. We are living in the age of hybrid wars, where kinetic action is the last resort, and much of the battle is waged in the information, economic and other domains to break the will of the enemy. This is sometimes referred to as the fifth-generation of war. With the advent of artificial intelligence robotics, we are witnessing the onset of sixth-generation warfare.
Defence Day should be an occasion to prepare the nation to guard against today’s complex wars that blend conventional, unconventional, economic, cyber, and psychological warfare, media manipulation, cultural invasions, and relentless propaganda to create confusion about the core values that hold a nation together. On most occasions, the target may not even know it is under attack.
An argument is often made that much of what Pakistan is facing is because of its own doing; we should, therefore, not blame others, and instead, address our own vulnerabilities. Others, however, believe we cannot disregard the possibility of hybrid war imposed by our detractors, manifested vividly in concerted disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, lawfare, and even cyberattacks. The National Security Policy, that was announced last year, advised a comprehensive approach to national security, comprising not just traditional defence but also economic and human security.
Hence we must be reminded that Pakistan needs a robust defence strategy that employs all elements of national power. Fortunately, our diplomacy is resilient and can serve as the first line of defence. Our armed forces are disciplined and organised. Our nuclear capability deters possible aggression. The entire nation got together against the menace of terrorism. We have a young intelligent human resource, which if educated and trained can serve the nation well. We are also blessed with agricultural and mineral wealth. And our diaspora is dynamic and ready to serve the motherland.
These are notable strengths. However, we need a strategy that integrates all these elements of national power. First and foremost, we need a whole-of-the-nation approach on matters of national security. No decisions should be taken by any institution in isolation, nor by any leader on a whim. The chain is only as strong as its weakest link. To that end, forging broad political consensus on national security imperatives is an absolute must.
Secondly, most of our vulnerabilities stem from our weak economy. We spend more than we earn, obliging us to depend on foreign donors. Internal and external debts are mounting. Exports are stagnant. Doing business in Pakistan is not easy. Corruption is pervasive, and the inflation rate so high that the life of the common man has become miserable. The need of the hour is to give the highest priority to reviving our economy and building a national political consensus on economic policies. Unless we are economically resilient, modern warfare against us will remain a serious threat to national stability.
Thirdly, in a hybrid warfare environment, image is as important as reality. Since 9/11, Pakistan’s image has been associated with terrorism and extremism. Hostile lobbies ensure that this image remains, despite the fact that Pakistan has fought against terrorism like no other nation has. Creative cultural diplomacy can help change the way the world looks at Pakistan, building on our strengths: glorious civilisational heritage, mighty mountains, and multiple faiths. Our film industry, academia, and diaspora can also help project our true image to millions of people around the world.
Addressing our vulnerabilities and inculcating good governance is the best way to defend our country in the years ahead. Our problems are monumental and may appear insurmountable, but failure is not an option. As Nelson Mandela said: “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”
The writer is the former foreign secretary.
