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RECORD CHINA TRADE SURPLUS AS DEMAND SAGS

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Record China trade surplus as demand sags - www.thebull.com.au

China recorded its highest trade surplus on record last month, official data shows, as plunging imports highlighted the country's continued struggle to boost domestic demand and prop up sagging growth.

The disappointing figures show how Beijing is struggling to keep the world's second-largest economy on the rails and add to mounting evidence China could be heading for a hard landing.

As the planet's biggest trader in goods and a key driver of already subdued world growth, the figures will also add to signs the global economy is facing its toughest year since the height of the financial crisis.

Imports fell 18.8 per cent compared to a year ago to $US130.77 billion ($A183 billion), the 12th consecutive monthly drop in imports, following a 20.4 per cent decrease in September, according to customs figures.

Exports, too, continued their losing streak from July, dropping by 6.9 per cent year-on-year in October to $192.41 billion as foreign demand languished.

That set the trade surplus at $US61.64 billion, a 36 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2014 and the highest such figure since at least 1995, the earliest data held on record by Bloomberg News.

The decrease in exports was larger than a median forecast of a 3.2 per cent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The data "suggests that domestic demand remained sluggish", ANZ analysts said in a research note, adding that they expect "imports growth may start to improve gradually" into the first quarter of 2016.

Weakness in China's property market, overcapacity in the manufacturing sector and slowed government spending on infrastructure have contributed to the country's economic slowdown and decreasing demand for commodities.

Falling demand from the world's top importer of everything from industrial metals and energy to corn has in turn driven commodity prices down, which has made China's exports even cheaper.

Coal imports have dropped almost 30 per cent in volume and 45 per cent in value over the first 10 months of the year, measured in the local currency, the data showed.

The sagging numbers have caused anxiety for countries like Australia and Mongolia, whose economies are driven by Chinese demand for the raw materials they produce, despite government efforts to stimulate the economy.

Last week, the ruling Communist Party announced its intention to pursue a combination of stimulus and structural reform measures in its 13th five-year plan, which provides guidance for the national economy through 2020.
 
This article is largely bull shit. It fails to mention the effect of lower commodity prices, and the resulting deflation of prices in almost all finished products as well.
Miss Bamboo asked about the world economy. U may talk about the shining datas of your country. She was not mentioning bull or beef.
 
Record China trade surplus as demand sags - www.thebull.com.au

China recorded its highest trade surplus on record last month, official data shows, as plunging imports highlighted the country's continued struggle to boost domestic demand and prop up sagging growth.

The disappointing figures show how Beijing is struggling to keep the world's second-largest economy on the rails and add to mounting evidence China could be heading for a hard landing.

As the planet's biggest trader in goods and a key driver of already subdued world growth, the figures will also add to signs the global economy is facing its toughest year since the height of the financial crisis.

Imports fell 18.8 per cent compared to a year ago to $US130.77 billion ($A183 billion), the 12th consecutive monthly drop in imports, following a 20.4 per cent decrease in September, according to customs figures.

Exports, too, continued their losing streak from July, dropping by 6.9 per cent year-on-year in October to $192.41 billion as foreign demand languished.

That set the trade surplus at $US61.64 billion, a 36 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2014 and the highest such figure since at least 1995, the earliest data held on record by Bloomberg News.

The decrease in exports was larger than a median forecast of a 3.2 per cent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The data "suggests that domestic demand remained sluggish", ANZ analysts said in a research note, adding that they expect "imports growth may start to improve gradually" into the first quarter of 2016.

Weakness in China's property market, overcapacity in the manufacturing sector and slowed government spending on infrastructure have contributed to the country's economic slowdown and decreasing demand for commodities.

Falling demand from the world's top importer of everything from industrial metals and energy to corn has in turn driven commodity prices down, which has made China's exports even cheaper.

Coal imports have dropped almost 30 per cent in volume and 45 per cent in value over the first 10 months of the year, measured in the local currency, the data showed.

The sagging numbers have caused anxiety for countries like Australia and Mongolia, whose economies are driven by Chinese demand for the raw materials they produce, despite government efforts to stimulate the economy.

Last week, the ruling Communist Party announced its intention to pursue a combination of stimulus and structural reform measures in its 13th five-year plan, which provides guidance for the national economy through 2020.

Thanks for posting bro! I was thinking about updating a thread on "trade" but I found admin merged that into "China Economy".

Yes October surplus of $US61.64 billion was a record high, and my forecast of 2015 total remains at $600 billion.

While look at surplus data, one major point of observation would be ever-increasing crude oil imports in physical measures.
China Filling Strategic Reserve With Cheap Oil | OilPrice.com
 
This article is largely bull shit. It fails to mention the effect of lower commodity prices, and the resulting deflation of prices in almost all finished products as well.
This year Chinese firms earn less,1-2%,I can't remember clearly.I saw this statistic when I read newspapers on school board.:tsk:
 
Just to remind everyone here, this trade figure doesn't include services deficit.

The actual surplus will be around 35-40 billion dollars.
 
How about the world economy situation?

US is doing well enough.

US economy doing well, December rate hike possible: Yellen - Channel NewsAsia

Global economy week ahead: US pessimism burns off but challenges remain for world economy - Moneyweb

US is actually in a very nice situation right now re: oil prices. low oil prices mean everything is cheaper = more economic activity. Higher oil prices mean cost effective shale oil and domestic development + potential exports of a massive amount of oil.

It's really rather amazing that in the current situation whichever way oil goes the US benefits.

Being a consumer nation the strong dollar should be strengthening the global economy though...
 
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US is doing well enough.

US economy doing well, December rate hike possible: Yellen - Channel NewsAsia

Global economy week ahead: US pessimism burns off but challenges remain for world economy - Moneyweb

US is actually in a very nice situation right now re: oil prices. low oil prices mean everything is cheaper = more economic activity. Higher oil prices mean cost effective shale oil and domestic development + potential exports of a massive amount of oil.

It's really rather amazing that in the current situation whichever way oil goes the US benefits.

Being a consumer nation the strong dollar should be strengthening the global economy though...
LOL, Gas prices around here in my local area has risen to $1.97+ per gallon. Will likely jump over $2 per gallon. Holding back spending now.
 
Services deficit for example are tourism which helps overseas economy. Goods on the other hands worries me because global economy seems to be contracting.
Global economy are contracting because the fall of commodity prices. But the output is still rising. This hurts countries relying on commodities such as Brazil, Russia, Saudi, Malaysia etc, but it benefits manufacturing powers such as China and United States with lower commodity cost and higher profit. Japan could benefit from this too, however Abenomics destroyes such a great opportunity.

This is a good chance for many countries to improve infrastructures with lower costs. Many countries will benefit from China's "One Belt, One Road" program.
 
LOL, Gas prices around here in my local area has risen to $1.97+ per gallon. Will likely jump over $2 per gallon. Holding back spending now.

Gas prices rising? That's odd my dear, prices are dropping here in Shanghai. Where in US do you live?

Off topic: If I may ask, is there by any chance that you might bear a resemblance to your DP?
 
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Just to remind everyone here, this trade figure doesn't include services deficit.

The actual surplus will be around 35-40 billion dollars.
No.

You have to add in remittances (around $60 billion yearly), investment return on the foreign exchange reserves (in US Treasury bonds and investments), and investment earnings from Chinese corporate investments overseas.

The total net annual surplus for China will be around $600 billion.
----------

$600 merchandise trade surplus
- $250 billion service trade deficit
+ $60 billion remittances
+ $100 billion foreign exchange earnings (2% from US Treasury bonds, 4% from financial investments; net average is about 3% on $3.5 trillion forex)
+ ? Chinese foreign corporate earnings and financial investments
---------
It's pretty close to $600 billion net inflow into China

Citation (World Bank): Remittances to developing countries to stay robust this year, despite increased deportations of migrant workers, says WB
Remittances have become a major component of the balance of payments of nations. India led the chart of remittance flows, receiving $70 billion last year, followed by China with $60 billion and the Philippines with $25 billion. There is no doubt that these flows act as an antidote to poverty and promote prosperity. Remittances and migration data are also barometers of global peace and turmoil and this is what makes World Bank’s KNOMAD initiative to organize, analyze, and make available these data so important," saidKaushik Basu, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank.
 
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