Taygibay
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- Oct 27, 2010
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A lot of folks quote jet prices out of their ...
Most posters find one mention of an extreme that fits their views, i.e. very low if they like the aircraft
and very high if they don't and go with that as proof hence. At best the mention is from an uninformed
journalist and at worst from a fellow poster on any given forum.
Sometimes, you'll also find the case of a poor sap dividing a quote for a deal by the number of planes
which is correct but forgetting what else that contract covered. Recently, Qatar bought 24 Rafales
for example for 6.3 B €. So some went 6B divided by 24 and thus obtained a unit price of 250M € each.
They were of course forgetting training for the pilots & mechanics or these weapons : 300 MICA, 300
AASM 140 SCALP, 60 Exocets latest blocks and possibly Meteors in undisclosed amounts.
Avec le Rafale, le Qatar rentre dans la cour des grands | Le portail des passionnés d'aviation
The numbers above are not exact as explained in the source but still valid rough estimates. And for
any mil avia worth their salt, that's a lot of cash as such missiles are pricey. An export AASM costs
around 250 000 € by itself so that in this case, the weapons constitute about half the deal's worth.
There is a much simpler way to source the real price of a fighter. Simply go to the government that
had them made and check their documentation. For the Rafale that would be the French Sénat :
So a single Rafale costs an average of 73M €, far from the dreams of our above semi-trolls & fanboys.
I chose the 2014 price voluntarily as that fell within the last Defence Program Law that is now closed.
This price won't change much in the coming years but it can fluctuate. Inflation and exchange rates
will impact it and if the price could go up with new equipment, it should go down with added buys, be
those foreign or national, due to series effect.
This is very much the case with another fighter : the F-35. If you took the program cost and unit value
of the very first Lighting II together ( program costs are never supposed to be computed as they only
count for the government that started it ), stopped production and again applied it to that single jet by
way of a division, it should have come to between half and three-fourths of a Trillion $.
What? A 500B$ fighter? Yes!
The program continues to this day however so that with each new lot signed for, the unit price of the
F-35 goes down. In this case, concurrency or the fact of developing the planes after production has
started muddles things up a lot. Some fanboys including at the Pentagon dream of it costing the price
of a 1985 F-16 which alas won't happen but it will go down. Check here :
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-160208-044.pdf
In the FY 2016 columns, you find 64,467 M ( AC ) + 16,743 M ( Electronics ) + 13,060M for engines that
add up to 94,270M to which one adds the ECO (1,885M )but also non-recurring cost. Alas, the last is bundled
so that here, you do need to check quantities ( 47 to be bought this year ) and divide 438,085 by 47 to get
9,320M and a grand total of 105,475M $ per plane ( approx. 96.5 M € ).
Why then are some claiming that the F-35 could go down to say 85M $ a piece?
Simply put, contrary to our Rafale example, this plane has not yet achieved full production and the ac-
quisition costs above are based on the 2017FY. Next year, the price should come down by 2.5M$ each.
If the program goes well ( better might be in order here but still ), the F-35 will indeed cost less every year.
It was almost 10M $ more last year even if it won't go down by as much every 12 months.
Of course, that is not a guarantee as full post-development production is yet to come and it is the price
for those partner nations, others should expect to pay a bit more.
Still, 105.5M$ is not the final price of the JSF/Lightning II. It will dip below 100M, possibly below 90M.
There are many many variables that I have not mentioned but those 2 examples are sufficient for now.
For a finished product like Rafale F3+, pick last closed acquisition law. For an unfinished program, use
many years and check the evolution of its costs. BUT PLEASE ... in both instances, get your numbers
from the people who designed and buy them, not from your neighbour's third cousin's landlord ...
even if he's a compatriot and posts news snippets on PDF or elsewhere!
And have a great evening all, Tay.
@MaarKhoor @WAJsal @Paksanity @Vauban @PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy
and all those that you guys want to tag.
Most posters find one mention of an extreme that fits their views, i.e. very low if they like the aircraft
and very high if they don't and go with that as proof hence. At best the mention is from an uninformed
journalist and at worst from a fellow poster on any given forum.
Sometimes, you'll also find the case of a poor sap dividing a quote for a deal by the number of planes
which is correct but forgetting what else that contract covered. Recently, Qatar bought 24 Rafales
for example for 6.3 B €. So some went 6B divided by 24 and thus obtained a unit price of 250M € each.
They were of course forgetting training for the pilots & mechanics or these weapons : 300 MICA, 300
AASM 140 SCALP, 60 Exocets latest blocks and possibly Meteors in undisclosed amounts.
Avec le Rafale, le Qatar rentre dans la cour des grands | Le portail des passionnés d'aviation
The numbers above are not exact as explained in the source but still valid rough estimates. And for
any mil avia worth their salt, that's a lot of cash as such missiles are pricey. An export AASM costs
around 250 000 € by itself so that in this case, the weapons constitute about half the deal's worth.
There is a much simpler way to source the real price of a fighter. Simply go to the government that
had them made and check their documentation. For the Rafale that would be the French Sénat :
"aux conditions économiques de 2014, soit un coût unitaire
(hors coût de développement) de 73 millions d'euros pour le Rafale B
(pour 110 avions), 68 millions pour le Rafale C (pour 118 avions)
et 78 millions pour le Rafale M (pour 58 avions)."
Projet de loi de finances pour 2015 : Défense : équipement des forces(hors coût de développement) de 73 millions d'euros pour le Rafale B
(pour 110 avions), 68 millions pour le Rafale C (pour 118 avions)
et 78 millions pour le Rafale M (pour 58 avions)."
So a single Rafale costs an average of 73M €, far from the dreams of our above semi-trolls & fanboys.
I chose the 2014 price voluntarily as that fell within the last Defence Program Law that is now closed.
This price won't change much in the coming years but it can fluctuate. Inflation and exchange rates
will impact it and if the price could go up with new equipment, it should go down with added buys, be
those foreign or national, due to series effect.
This is very much the case with another fighter : the F-35. If you took the program cost and unit value
of the very first Lighting II together ( program costs are never supposed to be computed as they only
count for the government that started it ), stopped production and again applied it to that single jet by
way of a division, it should have come to between half and three-fourths of a Trillion $.
What? A 500B$ fighter? Yes!
The program continues to this day however so that with each new lot signed for, the unit price of the
F-35 goes down. In this case, concurrency or the fact of developing the planes after production has
started muddles things up a lot. Some fanboys including at the Pentagon dream of it costing the price
of a 1985 F-16 which alas won't happen but it will go down. Check here :
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-160208-044.pdf
In the FY 2016 columns, you find 64,467 M ( AC ) + 16,743 M ( Electronics ) + 13,060M for engines that
add up to 94,270M to which one adds the ECO (1,885M )but also non-recurring cost. Alas, the last is bundled
so that here, you do need to check quantities ( 47 to be bought this year ) and divide 438,085 by 47 to get
9,320M and a grand total of 105,475M $ per plane ( approx. 96.5 M € ).
Why then are some claiming that the F-35 could go down to say 85M $ a piece?
Simply put, contrary to our Rafale example, this plane has not yet achieved full production and the ac-
quisition costs above are based on the 2017FY. Next year, the price should come down by 2.5M$ each.
If the program goes well ( better might be in order here but still ), the F-35 will indeed cost less every year.
It was almost 10M $ more last year even if it won't go down by as much every 12 months.
Of course, that is not a guarantee as full post-development production is yet to come and it is the price
for those partner nations, others should expect to pay a bit more.
Still, 105.5M$ is not the final price of the JSF/Lightning II. It will dip below 100M, possibly below 90M.
There are many many variables that I have not mentioned but those 2 examples are sufficient for now.
For a finished product like Rafale F3+, pick last closed acquisition law. For an unfinished program, use
many years and check the evolution of its costs. BUT PLEASE ... in both instances, get your numbers
from the people who designed and buy them, not from your neighbour's third cousin's landlord ...
even if he's a compatriot and posts news snippets on PDF or elsewhere!
And have a great evening all, Tay.
@MaarKhoor @WAJsal @Paksanity @Vauban @PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy
and all those that you guys want to tag.
Last edited:
)and the Magnac production line running at full steam, the unit price will tumble considerably.
