Real jet fighter prices : Rafale, F-35 2015-16.

[Blue Marlin]

Well, I would not blame politics directly for that. The incestuous relation known as the MIC, yes and also the
derived habit of considering budgets as infinitely stretchable. Having ultra high technology and expecting miracles
coupled with considering the sky to be a lower limit to be broken through as if it was a mere sound barrier goes
unchecked until spending has to be curbed with a shotgun as in F-22, DDG Zoomwaltz and other programs.
Proof being that it happens under just about all administrations regardless of political color!



Recurring problem mate, there's a thread to signal those to Webbie's attention here :
PDF Errors 2016 | Page 6



HMCS gentlemen, not HUD! But that should be a co-investment to be fair as it's the last real lack ( for now )
on the Raffy. France would benefit from it.




INSTANT? Shame and arghh*! Anathema and all these sort of things! I'm sure that's part of the SAS' secret!
Your lads can stomach anything so living off the land on extended missions is a cinch!
Being raised on haggis and assorted atrocities drowned in mint sauce will do that to you ...

And a great evening both and hi to the missus Tay.


* Shock and Awe the remix!

i aint Scottish lad , but i can pull of a good accent when i go to glasgow

 

[Taygibay]

PariK my friend, you don't pay VAT nor do the Egyptians and Qatari or any other!
That's an internal French tax. Of course, if you want to come and sign the deal in Paris
or near Bordeaux and leave with your planes from here, Bercy will be glad to add it fer ya!

Bercy is our finance ministry!

Tay.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Hmmm , this seems a reasonable and logical one.
But if it is like it, then where us the deadlock.?
Even if I add 6 months of reserve spares, weapons, training, infrastructure, road map for future acquisitions, etc.... I don't see the price climbing beyond 7.

Offsets, customisation, guaranteed availability (remember the IAF is said to be asking for 90%), through life support, multiple bases etc are all going to play their part.

That said, I don't see there being any hurdles that can't be overcome if both sides keep their heads and remain reasonable. I now understand why both leaders (Modi and Hollande) were confident of clinching this deal shortly when the IGA was signed.

How are we talking about the range of 8~12 billions then ?

Well this is a seperate issue, this is part of a well orchestrated misinformation/smear campaign targetting the Rafale in India and it has to be said it has been very succesful so far.

@PARIKRAMA

 

[cerberus]

Well Guys Cost Estimation of F-35 Varies to Sources

A Rand Corp. report produced to guide future U.S. Air Force program plans has concluded that the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program will cost more than three single-service programs would have done.With total Projected LCC Scale-up to 1.5 Trillion $ With 614 Million $ Per Unit

Although Lockheed Corp Disputes this Figure and Slashes Project LCC Cost to 782 Billion $ Figure
Neither is Lockheed Martin able or willing to provide a source for its $782 billion figure. The 2012 SAR estimated those costs at $617 billion in 2012 dollars, or $1,113 billion in then-year dollars for operations beyond 2065. That is the closest to $1.5 trillion of any published figures.

 

[Taygibay]

LCC again Cerberus man!
I strongly advised in my initial post not to use anything but unit cost, you see.

In the LifeCycleCost case, here is the reasoning :

America sells 2 F-35 to Palau.
That smallest of nations has to build an airfield for it / add price to LCC.
Then the locals are not too qualified so either they hire maintenance crews / add steep wages to LCC;
or they handle the Lighting II without qualifs raising the mistake ratio and subsequent corrections / add
cost of spares and delays to LCC.
The imported jet fuel is also a big addition and they don't have enough land to build a fuel plant which
would be an added cost also but not to a nation that already has it.
Then suppose the loss of one plane and you get an attrition rate of 50% with a corresponding tag to the
*cough, cough* fleet's LCC.
And so on ... all to do roundabouts over an already well protected stretch of the Pacific.

In other words, LCC is client dependent.

But thanks for proving the usefulness of my OP and good day, Tay.

 

[MICA]

is that applies to the egyptian rafale deal as well ?

 

[Taygibay]

Does what apply to your deal as well, MICA bro?

Read you later, Tay.

 

[Dash]

A lot of folks quote jet prices out of their ...

Most posters find one mention of an extreme that fits their views, i.e. very low if they like the aircraft
and very high if they don't and go with that as proof hence. At best the mention is from an uninformed
journalist and at worst from a fellow poster on any given forum.

Sometimes, you'll also find the case of a poor sap dividing a quote for a deal by the number of planes
which is correct but forgetting what else that contract covered. Recently, Qatar bought 24 Rafales
for example for 6.3 B €. So some went 6B divided by 24 and thus obtained a unit price of 250M € each.
They were of course forgetting training for the pilots & mechanics or these weapons : 300 MICA, 300
AASM 140 SCALP, 60 Exocets latest blocks and possibly Meteors in undisclosed amounts.
Avec le Rafale, le Qatar rentre dans la cour des grands | Le portail des passionnés d'aviation
The numbers above are not exact as explained in the source but still valid rough estimates. And for
any mil avia worth their salt, that's a lot of cash as such missiles are pricey. An export AASM costs
around 250 000 € by itself so that in this case, the weapons constitute about half the deal's worth.

There is a much simpler way to source the real price of a fighter. Simply go to the government that
had them made and check their documentation. For the Rafale that would be the French Sénat :

"aux conditions économiques de 2014, soit un coût unitaire
(hors coût de développement) de 73 millions d'euros pour le Rafale B
(pour 110 avions), 68 millions pour le Rafale C (pour 118 avions)
et 78 millions pour le Rafale M (pour 58 avions)."​

Projet de loi de finances pour 2015 : Défense : équipement des forces

So a single Rafale costs an average of 73M €, far from the dreams of our above semi-trolls & fanboys.
I chose the 2014 price voluntarily as that fell within the last Defence Program Law that is now closed.
This price won't change much in the coming years but it can fluctuate. Inflation and exchange rates
will impact it and if the price could go up with new equipment, it should go down with added buys, be
those foreign or national, due to series effect.

This is very much the case with another fighter : the F-35. If you took the program cost and unit value
of the very first Lighting II together ( program costs are never supposed to be computed as they only
count for the government that started it ), stopped production and again applied it to that single jet by
way of a division, it should have come to between half and three-fourths of a Trillion $.
What? A 500B$ fighter? Yes!

The program continues to this day however so that with each new lot signed for, the unit price of the
F-35 goes down. In this case, concurrency or the fact of developing the planes after production has
started muddles things up a lot. Some fanboys including at the Pentagon dream of it costing the price
of a 1985 F-16 which alas won't happen but it will go down. Check here :
View attachment 295692
http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-160208-044.pdf

In the FY 2016 columns, you find 64,467 M ( AC ) + 16,743 M ( Electronics ) + 13,060M for engines that
add up to 94,270M to which one adds the ECO (1,885M )but also non-recurring cost. Alas, the last is bundled
so that here, you do need to check quantities ( 47 to be bought this year ) and divide 438,085 by 47 to get
9,320M and a grand total of 105,475M $ per plane ( approx. 96.5 M € ).

Why then are some claiming that the F-35 could go down to say 85M $ a piece?
Simply put, contrary to our Rafale example, this plane has not yet achieved full production and the ac-
quisition costs above are based on the 2017FY. Next year, the price should come down by 2.5M$ each.
If the program goes well ( better might be in order here but still ), the F-35 will indeed cost less every year.
It was almost 10M $ more last year even if it won't go down by as much every 12 months.
Of course, that is not a guarantee as full post-development production is yet to come and it is the price
for those partner nations, others should expect to pay a bit more.
Still, 105.5M$ is not the final price of the JSF/Lightning II. It will dip below 100M, possibly below 90M.

There are many many variables that I have not mentioned but those 2 examples are sufficient for now.
For a finished product like Rafale F3+, pick last closed acquisition law. For an unfinished program, use
many years and check the evolution of its costs. BUT PLEASE ... in both instances, get your numbers
from the people who designed and buy them, not from your neighbour's third cousin's landlord ...
even if he's a compatriot and posts news snippets on PDF or elsewhere!

And have a great evening all, Tay.

@MaarKhoor @WAJsal @Paksanity @Vauban @PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy

and all those that you guys want to tag.

All this is fine and we get it. I would be explicitly wrong if I say many posters here know what exactly is going on here.

Just think for a Sec and leave the pennies to the pig for a while. Let's put on that geopolitical hat and we get that.

French wants an entry to a future 10 trillion market but they want to be paid first than any prospects of discount later.

We getit tayji we do

And BTW that Qatar example was good but you forgot to mention that French govt took the pain of duscounting trading and support.

@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA

 

[Abingdonboy]

Just think for a Sec and leave the pennies to the pig for a while. Let's put on that geopolitical hat and we get that.

French wants an entry to a future 10 trillion market but they want to be paid first than any prospects of discount later.

Not realy sure what you are getting at here my friend. France has clinched major deals such as the $5BN Alstom freight train deal for the IR and the >$15BN USD AREVA/Jaitpur power plant project is moving closer and closer to fruition, I don't think the French are inherently unable to do business with India.

Addtionally I don't understand what is wrong with wanting to get paid first? When has Russia, Israel or America foregone payment for good or services rendered to India? I didn't see Russia offer any "friend's rates" for the Viky, MiG-29Ks, Talwars, MKIs, FGFA, MTA etc in fact I saw the opposite- they blackmailed and extorted India to the tune of BILLIONS

We don't know what kind of discount the French are offering for such a strategically significant deal but I would wager it was considerable- they aren't idiots and they know the prospects for future business with India extend far beyond 36 Rafales.

On the other hand, certain Indians need to get it out of their heads that France is trying to take India for a ride and rob it blind. There is nothing I have seen of late to suggest that the French side is asking for anything unreasonable or unpalatable- like Boeing stipulating that they would retain rull control of any Indian production line for the F-18SH for instance.

As I've said, there has been a very succesful campaign run by vested interests against the Rafale in India but if you objectively look at the facts then there is nothing to get too worked up about vis a vis the French/Dassualt/Rafale. India is getting a pretty good deal with the potential of making it a landmark/historic deal (if the MII produciton line is pursued).

@PARIKRAMA @surya kiran @Taygibay

 

[PARIKRAMA]

French wanting is actually bcz of two reasons

First is the request or rather a pre condition by our country.. The jargon they use is offsets.. The usage they say is this will help develop local MIC and cycle back a portion to our country.. A need of Euro 3Bn for a line manufacturing sadddled up in the cost.. And on top the same is needed for setting up the line in India implying a demonstration by GOI that they want manufacturing jets in india seriously.

You remove these offsets and you automatically remove the pre condition of cycling back into Indian economy.. Logically your package price should fall by almost 40% give or take another 10% here and there..

You say I commit to buy 150-200 but I want them build in India.. GOI should ask for a firm proposal and whom you are partnering and GOI will say let me give land, tax and electricity etc liberally and perhaps give you tax holiday also..

Unfortunately such "neo" and revolutionary thinking is not possible as procurement is a defined big book of rules.. You can deviate but if you want to follow new rules, you have to first set those new rules into the book ...

Secondly, Mirage deal was the main experience problem for Dassault.. We promised 150 bought 51 and overnight got a Russian jet.. We stabbed French folks literally.. If at that time we would have gotten Mirage in such a huge number potentially today with upgrades also and whatever be the cost, that fleet could have serves us much much better any day over the other jets..

Here is a small bed time story of what has happened till now..
The seller had a bad experience once and this time it wants the buyer to be honest and show firmness in the commitment.. And look at the buyer.. The buyer keeps saying we will buy if price is right.. X,Y and Z also wants to sell so there is a good selection of product available for the right price.. If all fails we have a plan B and we will order our existing products only.. I can't buy costly products and I can't buy top of the line products and what not.. No body tells the buyer dude you went to a super market to buy according to your needs.. If your needs is for a Hi end product what are you doing looking at 99 cents discounted section..... You can't cry from there saying I want the best product in this 99 cent section..

Then buyer changes tactics and says OK I will buy the hi end product but I will buy just few and I will save money and again look at 99 cent section to find another seller.. Dude no one is begging you to buy.. If you want to buy it's your need which is making you buy and since you know the 99 cent section products can't match the hi end product any given day..

The buyer still talks to 99 cent section seller and says I want a deeper discount to show I am a good bargainer.. The salesman says sir buy 200/of our products I will give you at 98 cents but nothing below 200.. The buyer becomes happy, and says yes and points to hi end product seller look see this is how people do business.. The hi end seller smiles and does not comment.. The buyer goes back to check why the hi end seller did not comment as he was still in disbelief.. The buyer came to know the 98 cent discounted from 99 cents product has many other terms and conditions which are far more complex and binding versus the hi end product seller who had very liberal terms... The 98 cent product in fact gave no tangible benefits whereas the hi end product gave lots of other benefits which the buyer can use for his future businesses.

In the end with egg in his face, the buyer goes back to the hi end seller and negotiates again to show case he is the best bargainer.. This time hi end seller gives him a small discount and buyer becomes happy.. And ego boosted, he finally orders a big buy order from Hi end seller..

Morale of the story... For the sake of one man who wants to prove he is a good bargainer, the whole time bargaining went on and on.. The smartest seller just waited for the right time when finally the buyer realised he can't fool around forever.. At that precise time the seller gave a small discount and got the big deal nice and easy...
And doing all this no one bothered to tell the buyer dude you are wasting time which won't come back ever..

 

[Dash]

Not realy sure what you are getting at here my friend. France has clinched major deals such as the $5BN Alstom freight train deal for the IR and the >$15BN USD AREVA/Jaitpur power plant project is moving closer and closer to fruition, I don't think the French are inherently unable to do business with India.

Addtionally I don't understand what is wrong with wanting to get paid first? When has Russia, Israel or America foregone payment for good or services rendered to India? I didn't see Russia offer any "friend's rates" for the Viky, MiG-29Ks, Talwars, MKIs, FGFA, MTA etc in fact I saw the opposite- they blackmailed and extorted India to the tune of BILLIONS

We don't know what kind of discount the French are offering for such a strategically significant deal but I would wager it was considerable- they aren't idiots and they know the prospects for future business with India extend far beyond 36 Rafales.

On the other hand, certain Indians need to get it out of their heads that France is trying to take India for a ride and rob it blind. There is nothing I have seen of late to suggest that the French side is asking for anything unreasonable or unpalatable- like Boeing stipulating that they would retain rull control of any Indian production line for the F-18SH for instance.

As I've said, there has been a very succesful campaign run by vested interests against the Rafale in India but if you objectively look at the facts then there is nothing to get too worked up about vis a vis the French/Dassualt/Rafale. India is getting a pretty good deal with the potential of making it a landmark/historic deal (if the MII produciton line is pursued).

@PARIKRAMA @surya kiran @Taygibay

I will wait for Tay's response first and then i will reply to you.

Morale of the story... For the sake of one man who wants to prove he is a good bargainer, the whole time bargaining went on and on.. The smartest seller just waited for the right time when finally the buyer realised he can't fool around forever.. At that precise time the seller gave a small discount and got the big deal nice and easy...
And doing all this no one bothered to tell the buyer dude you are wasting time which won't come back ever..

That is not wrong but I request you to look through the buyer's lens once again. And remind you that this was efed up by our previous saints who's aim was to pass the buck and taka, taka, taka any tamilans here?

 

[MICA]

Does what apply to your deal as well, MICA bro?

Read you later, Tay.

about the rafale Price ?

 

[Taygibay]

Here is my answer Dash and you're not going to like it :

This thread is about Jet Fighter prices. India is not mentioned once in the OP!
Why would you come here and pollute this discussion with your ego problems?
I said as much to another poster and in all fairness, I can't answer your query.


To be more to the point even, you should have noticed that I pulled out of the
Rafale non-deal with India thread despite you and friends being there; there
was a clear need for me to do so ( for the second time BTW since 2009 )!!!

I don't give a

about that saga anymore!

I have the utmost respect for your history and beautiful land but as a collective, Bharat, on
Internet at least, exhibits the behaviour of an overly attached self-centered neurotic girlfriend.
I do my best avoid those crazies, IRL and on the web! So thanks but no thanks!

I had begun to write a real answer BTW and may still finish it and find a place to drop it in for you ...
once the aggravation wears off!

If you find an Information Bureau or better a budget quote for the price of the LCA..
you're more than welcome to come by and add it to the prices check list however!
That is what this thread is intended for!

See you then and best to you & yours in the meanwhile, Tay.

 

[Taygibay]

It's unlikely, @MICA, those are the prices for no frills deals!
It is possible but it is more probable that you might have paid a bit more due to the expeditious nature
of your requirement : the speed of the procurement and getting Raffys out of the AdlA's order book and
the FREMM out of the Royale's own and so on.

But I cannot vouch for that, especially online. It is however one of those variables that I mentioned.

Great day to you my friend, Tay.

 

[MICA]

It's unlikely, @MICA, those are the prices for no frills deals!
It is possible but it is more probable that you might have paid a bit more due to the expeditious nature
of your requirement : the speed of the procurement and getting Raffys out of the AdlA's order book and
the FREMM out of the Royale's own and so on.

But I cannot vouch for that, especially online. It is however one of those variables that I mentioned.

Great day to you my friend, Tay.

i was just asking as we paid a lot less comparing to Qatar deal