Rajapaksa defeat: 5 things likely to change in India-Sri Lanka relations

[IndoCarib]

Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa conceded defeat in his bid for a third term in office on Friday, a result unthinkable just weeks ago for a confident leader hoping to cash in on his economic record.

Rajapaksa lost to his former friend and health minister, Maithripala Sirisena, who defected from the ruling party and turned the election into a referendum on the president with expanding power since his victory over the Tamil Tigers in 2009. Rajapaksa had called the vote two years early, a move seen by many as a test for triumphalism.

The results from the largely peaceful elections could signal a period of better relations between India and Sri Lanka which had, under Rajapaksa, drifted closer to China. Here are five areas where ties could shift:

Smoother ties with Sri Lankan Tamils - Many Tamils have felt abandoned since the war's end in 2009, when Rajapaksa largely ignored their demands to heal the wounds of the fighting and years of ethnic divisions. The results highlighted the ethnic polarisation in the country, with Tamils and Muslims, the second-largest ethnic minority, both voting against Rajapaksa.

For India, the Rajapaksa government’s treatment of Tamils of Indian origin had been a constant source of disagreements and friction. New Delhi could now hope to get clearer understanding and satisfaction on how ethnic Tamils will be treated and on their acceptance as equal citizens alongside ethnic Sinhalese in Sri Lanka.

Reduced security engagement with China – The outcome of the polls will be watched keenly in New Delhi and Beijing since both have large stakes in the island nation. China has made large strategic and commercial investments in Sri Lanka with Rajapaksa beholden to Beijing for its military support in his war against the Tamil Tiger. In the closing months of the war, India refused to supply any lethal weaponry but China sold Jian-7 fighters, anti-aircraft guns and JY-11 3D air surveillance radars to the resurgent Sri Lankan army. Pakistan also supplied the Sri Lankan army small arms, multi-barrel rocket launchers and trained its air force in precision guided attacks against the Tamil Tigers. Today, about 70 per cent of Sri Lankan military hardware is Chinese. Chinese investments and part ownership of Sri Lankan maritime assets remains a deep cause of worry for India.

While Sri Lanka under a new government may not entirely disengage with China given its surging cash reliance on Beijing to build its infrastructure, New Delhi could look forward to a correction in Colombo’s strategic proximity to Beijing as well as an overall rebalancing of the island nation’s external relations. Sri Lanka is likely to be more sensitive to Indian concerns about third-party security presence in that country.

Smoother execution of Indian developmental projects in Sri Lanka – Under Rajapaksa, India faced a number of administrative difficulties in executing development projects, especially those to resettle Tamils in Sri Lanka’s north. For instance, only 20,000 houses for Tamils could be built since 2009 with Indian support against a target of 50,000. Indian state investments in Sri Lanka total some $1.3 billion, much of it going into post-conflict reconstruction. India is also helping with the Omanthai-Pallai and Kankesanthurai railway line as well as the harbor reconstruction in Kankesanthurai. Earlier New Delhi helped build the Matara-Colombo railway link in 2012.

Stronger trade ties – Bilateral ties under a new government will likely see more focus on the state of Sri Lanka's economy. For Sri Lanka, costly short-term foreign debt, much of it from China taken to build its infrastructure, is a worry. Indian investments in Sri Lanka have grown. Sri Lanka is also dependent on India for much of its fuel.

Given that a strategic relationship is also governed by trade, India will have a lot of room to manoeuvre in Sri Lanka. The long stalled Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement between the two countries could be revived.

A genuine democracy – Buoyed by his military victory over the Tamil Tigers, Rajapaksa steadily tightened his grip on power, amending the constitution to eliminate term limits and dismissing a Supreme Court justice who resisted his changes. The system known as "executive presidency" gave his family a tight grip on the economy and politics, in what critics said was subversion of democracy by a one-family rule - See more at: Rajapaksa defeat: 5 things likely to change in India-Sri Lanka relations - Hindustan Times

 

[IndoCarib]

@Gibbs and other SL members, what say you ?

Rajapaksa's defeat means advantage for India, bad news for China | Business Standard On The Beat

 

[Gibbs]

@Gibbs and other SL members, what say you ?

Rajapaksa's defeat means advantage for India, bad news for China | Business Standard On The Beat

Not really Sino/Lanka relations or for that matter Pak/Lanka relations will remain steadfast they have been for over 40 years.. So it's not something new nor will it change

Indo/Lanka relations have also been excellent post civil war and especially under the Modi govt

But the new govt will look for a more dynamic foreign policy than what the Rajapaksa regime pursued that includes the West and India, Both Sri Lanka's main trading partners.. But no it will not be at the cost of their traditional allies as the article suggests.. Rest assured

 

[Turingsage]

Who is Sirisena?
MEERA SRINIVASAN
COMMENT · PRINT · T T


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It has been a path of diverse political engagement for Sri Lanka’s newly-elected leader
All along his journey from a humble farmer’s home to the country’s Presidency, it has been a path of diverse political engagement for Sri Lanka’s newly-elected leader Maithripala Sirisena.

A huge crowd clapped and waved on Friday, as the mild-mannered politician began his first speech as President of the country. Attired in a traditional white sarong and a full sleeved shirt, he stood poised behind the podium, occasionally smiling through his rimless spectacles.

Born in Gampaha district of Sri Lanka’s Western Province, Mr. Sirisena grew up and lived in Polonnaruwa, the island’s rice bowl. As a student of agriculture, he was drawn to Marxist ideology, something he would academically pursue much later in his political career at the Maxim Gorky Academy in Russia.

Having served as a government officer in his village, Mr. Sirisena had opportunities to work with the peasant community closely. It was his support base in the region, the ancient town, that prompted leaders to field him as a common candidate who could potentially unseat Mr. Rajapaksa.

Mr. Sirisena had worked in the region for many years and began full-time political work with the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in the late 1970s. He rose in the ranks to eventually become the party’s general secretary.

Prior to serving as Health Minister in Mr. Rajapaksa’s cabinet, Mr. Sirisena had held other portfolios, including Irrigation and Parliamentary Affairs. While handling the Health portfolio, he made news spearheading an anti-tobacco campaign and mooting harsher legislations.

Considered part of the “SLFP old guard,” he was a close associate of the Bandaranaikes all through, which perhaps explains former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s support for him in this historic election.

Known to be an admirer of Mahatma Gandhi, Mr .Sirisena has adorned his living room walls with his photographs, in addition to framed pictures of Karl Marx and Lenin, according to a recent visitor.

The 63-year-old politician is married and has three children.

Who is Sirisena? - The Hindu

 

[Gibbs]

Quite an accurate assessment.. Indian point of view

Reading the Sri Lankan vote - The Hindu

SUHASINI HAIDAR

AP
Sri Lanka incoming President Maithripala Sirisena.


After his dramatic defeat in the post-war elections of 1945, British PM Winston Churchill said that the vote against him had shown that the “people of Britain are facing that new era with the same courage as they faced the long years of war."

It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that the people of Sri Lanka, too, have shown exemplary courage with this election in which President Mahinda Rajapksa has been defeated, surprising many and proving that their vote cannot be taken for granted. As PM Modi congratulated Mr. Maithripala Sirisena for his victory, India must also welcome the chance to build a new relationship with its closest and most intricately connected southern neighbour. For this, a closer analysis of the victory is necessary.

To begin with, Mr. Sirisena’s win does not denote a significant shift in core politics in Sri Lanka. This was not an election between two opposites. On the one hand was Mr. Rajapaksa, a strongman, who had delivered his country from the terror of the LTTE, and ruled the island with a combination of popularity, majoritarian rhetoric, military might, and family power. On the other was his former minister Mr. Sirisena, a consensus opposition candidate, but also an associate of Mr. Rajapakse for several years. Two key players in the power structure will also be familiar faces of the past, i.e. former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremsingha, who will be PM again, and former President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Secondly, Mr. Sirisena’s victory is more a rejection of Mr. Rajapaksa, than it is a vote for him, and therefore the reasons for Mr. Rajapaksa’s loss are important. If the defeat of the LTTE was Mr. Rajapksa’s best hour in office, his electoral defeat is clearly his worst. Yet, in many ways, the reasons for both are similar, and the very traits that won him the war seem to have lost him the election. To begin with, his authoritarian leadership united the country as it went into the last phase of the war to finish LTTE chief Prabhakaran. His predecessors had failed, precisely because of the internal political wrangling or differences with the military leadership that President Rajapaksa had curbed. With one brother leading the defence forces (Gothabaya), another responsible for economic development (Basil), the third the speaker of the assembly (Chamal), and his son (Namal) groomed to succeed him, Mr. Rajapaksa has been able to control all parts of his government as he did the last stages of the war. A key part of that was that he brooked no dissent in either tasks, and both questioning journalists and political opponents were effectively silenced. It is just this tight control that seems to have lost Mr. Rajapaksa the election, with some analysts adding that the “family ring” around him prevented him from seeing the defeat coming.

Thirdly, it is significant that Tamil-majority areas and Muslim-majority areas voted for Mr. Sirisena’s coalition. It will be important to see how far he is willing to keep their trust, especially on the subject of devolution of power, and the demilitarization of the region. Many in these areas felt betrayed and marginalized that Mr. Rajapaksa refused to take action against those responsible for human rights violations, torture and disappearances during the LTTE war, and didn’t implent his own government’s LLRC (Lessons learnt and Reconciliation committee) report. Yet it remains to be seen if Mr. Sirisena, who represents the hardline-Sinhala constituency of the North-Central province, and was himself the Defence minister in May 2009, would go much further. He has already said clearly that the army would not be redeployed from the Northern province as the Tamil TNA leadership demanded. Also to consider is the support he enjoys now from the JHU, called ‘the monk’s party’, or the right-wing JVP, which would hardly allow more devolution to the North.

Neither should this be read, as it has in some quarters, as a “win” for India vis-à-vis China. While Chinese President xi Jinping, who invested much support into Mr. Rajapksa’s presidency, will face a setback if Mr. Sirisena goes ahead on election promises and cancels projects including the $1.5 billion Chinese contract for the Colombo “port city” that the two leaders launched in September 2014.

But the contract was won by open bids, and India either declined the offers to take them, or didn’t bid for the Colombo port and other projects like Hambantota. It may be premature, then to assume China will be cut out of Sri Lanka’s development to India’s benefit. Moreover, at a press conference Mr. Sirisena has said that he hopes to build an “equal relationship” with India, Pakistan, China and Japan, a statement that hardly indicates a special position for India.

It is with all these points in mind that the government must essay the new opportunities with Sri Lanka, an island that has shown refreshing unity, optimism, and yes, courage in electing the new government of Mr. Sirisena.

 

[IndoCarib]

Quite an accurate assessment.. Indian point of view

Reading the Sri Lankan vote - The Hindu

SUHASINI HAIDAR

AP
Sri Lanka incoming President Maithripala Sirisena.


After his dramatic defeat in the post-war elections of 1945, British PM Winston Churchill said that the vote against him had shown that the “people of Britain are facing that new era with the same courage as they faced the long years of war."

It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that the people of Sri Lanka, too, have shown exemplary courage with this election in which President Mahinda Rajapksa has been defeated, surprising many and proving that their vote cannot be taken for granted. As PM Modi congratulated Mr. Maithripala Sirisena for his victory, India must also welcome the chance to build a new relationship with its closest and most intricately connected southern neighbour. For this, a closer analysis of the victory is necessary.

To begin with, Mr. Sirisena’s win does not denote a significant shift in core politics in Sri Lanka. This was not an election between two opposites. On the one hand was Mr. Rajapaksa, a strongman, who had delivered his country from the terror of the LTTE, and ruled the island with a combination of popularity, majoritarian rhetoric, military might, and family power. On the other was his former minister Mr. Sirisena, a consensus opposition candidate, but also an associate of Mr. Rajapakse for several years. Two key players in the power structure will also be familiar faces of the past, i.e. former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremsingha, who will be PM again, and former President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Secondly, Mr. Sirisena’s victory is more a rejection of Mr. Rajapaksa, than it is a vote for him, and therefore the reasons for Mr. Rajapaksa’s loss are important. If the defeat of the LTTE was Mr. Rajapksa’s best hour in office, his electoral defeat is clearly his worst. Yet, in many ways, the reasons for both are similar, and the very traits that won him the war seem to have lost him the election. To begin with, his authoritarian leadership united the country as it went into the last phase of the war to finish LTTE chief Prabhakaran. His predecessors had failed, precisely because of the internal political wrangling or differences with the military leadership that President Rajapaksa had curbed. With one brother leading the defence forces (Gothabaya), another responsible for economic development (Basil), the third the speaker of the assembly (Chamal), and his son (Namal) groomed to succeed him, Mr. Rajapaksa has been able to control all parts of his government as he did the last stages of the war. A key part of that was that he brooked no dissent in either tasks, and both questioning journalists and political opponents were effectively silenced. It is just this tight control that seems to have lost Mr. Rajapaksa the election, with some analysts adding that the “family ring” around him prevented him from seeing the defeat coming.

Thirdly, it is significant that Tamil-majority areas and Muslim-majority areas voted for Mr. Sirisena’s coalition. It will be important to see how far he is willing to keep their trust, especially on the subject of devolution of power, and the demilitarization of the region. Many in these areas felt betrayed and marginalized that Mr. Rajapaksa refused to take action against those responsible for human rights violations, torture and disappearances during the LTTE war, and didn’t implent his own government’s LLRC (Lessons learnt and Reconciliation committee) report. Yet it remains to be seen if Mr. Sirisena, who represents the hardline-Sinhala constituency of the North-Central province, and was himself the Defence minister in May 2009, would go much further. He has already said clearly that the army would not be redeployed from the Northern province as the Tamil TNA leadership demanded. Also to consider is the support he enjoys now from the JHU, called ‘the monk’s party’, or the right-wing JVP, which would hardly allow more devolution to the North.

Neither should this be read, as it has in some quarters, as a “win” for India vis-à-vis China. While Chinese President xi Jinping, who invested much support into Mr. Rajapksa’s presidency, will face a setback if Mr. Sirisena goes ahead on election promises and cancels projects including the $1.5 billion Chinese contract for the Colombo “port city” that the two leaders launched in September 2014.

But the contract was won by open bids, and India either declined the offers to take them, or didn’t bid for the Colombo port and other projects like Hambantota. It may be premature, then to assume China will be cut out of Sri Lanka’s development to India’s benefit. Moreover, at a press conference Mr. Sirisena has said that he hopes to build an “equal relationship” with India, Pakistan, China and Japan, a statement that hardly indicates a special position for India.

It is with all these points in mind that the government must essay the new opportunities with Sri Lanka, an island that has shown refreshing unity, optimism, and yes, courage in electing the new government of Mr. Sirisena.

Different views, different sources....

http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/09/for-china-a-new-leader-in-sri-lanka-may-herald-a-change-in-ties/?_r=0

Sri Lankan Poll Upset a Blow to China’s Indian Ocean Plans - Businessweek

Sri Lanka’s election upset just destroyed a linchpin of China’s foreign policy – Quartz

 

[Gibbs]

Different views, different sources....

http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/09/for-china-a-new-leader-in-sri-lanka-may-herald-a-change-in-ties/?_r=0

Sri Lankan Poll Upset a Blow to China’s Indian Ocean Plans - Businessweek

Sri Lanka’s election upset just destroyed a linchpin of China’s foreign policy – Quartz

Depends on the commentators and thier political compultions viz a viz Anti Chinese or neutral.. The fact remain Sino/Lanka relations will not alter.. It had not under many govts, So there is no reason for it to now

 

[Turingsage]

Depends on the commentators and thier political compultions viz a viz Anti Chinese or neutral.. The fact remain Sino/Lanka relations will not alter.. It had not under many govts, So there is no reason for it to now

Depends on the views of PDF posters. Each vying to support his own point of view. In your case the desire to view no change in the Pak/China/Lanka relations. The reality will unfold in time. One thing is for sure, there has been a change in Lanka and someone or was it you called Wickramasinge as a US puppet and tool who becomes the PM. Constitutional changes due will restore Parliamentary democracy, placing the PM at the apex.

 

[Steakhouse]

Depends on the commentators and thier political compultions viz a viz Anti Chinese or neutral.. The fact remain Sino/Lanka relations will not alter.. It had not under many govts, So there is no reason for it to now

First China never exert their power inside Sir Lanka internal politic or provide financial backing to the former president to defeat incumbent president by hook or crook during the election, 2nd China is a far away power with less direct territorial conflict with Sir Lanka, 3rd Sir Lanka as a small nation close proximity to bigger India nation in South Asia required a foreign policy with a pragmatic approach for upholding Sir Lanka national interest in the region, Sir Lanka won't shun China relationship in favorite of India national interest for India to dominate over Sir Lanka the region, 4th anti China sentiment not widespread among Sir Lankan population with no suspicious view of China violate Sir Lanka territory, more prudent choice of foreign policy hedging all major power without allow any nation dominate Sir Lanka internal politic and not to be subjugated to the South Asia regional power. China in a position to balance India domination over Sir Lanka.

 

[IndoUS]

Well, he was a great President under his rule the Civil war ended and there is a great move towards development. Best Wishes to the new President.

 

[JanjaWeed]

Can't get any worse! Rajapaksa was hardcore anti-Indian right from his early days. His dislike towards India was quite blatant during early tamilian uprising in SL.

 

[SledgeHammer]

First China never exert their power inside Sir Lanka internal politic or provide financial backing to the former president to defeat incumbent president by hook or crook during the election, 2nd China is a far away power with less direct territorial conflict with Sir Lanka, 3rd Sir Lanka as a small nation close proximity to bigger India nation in South Asia required a foreign policy with a pragmatic approach for upholding Sir Lanka national interest in the region, Sir Lanka won't shun China relationship in favorite of India national interest for India to dominate over Sir Lanka the region, 4th anti China sentiment not widespread among Sir Lankan population with no suspicious view of China violate Sir Lanka territory, more prudent choice of foreign policy hedging all major power without allow any nation dominate Sir Lanka internal politic and not to be subjugated to the South Asia regional power. China in a position to balance India domination over Sir Lanka.

Sir Lankans won't be happy after reading this.

 

[samv]

Too much is being made of Maithripala Sirisena.

He is not the man with power even though he won the election.

He may be the president of Sri Lanka but real power lies in the hands of two other people:

1. Ranil Wickremasinghe, the leader of the United National Party

and

2. Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Maithripala Sirisena is merely a figurehead that the above two people used to come into power. He didn't finish school. He has been in jail. He is unable to hold a conversation even in basic English (not that this is inherently bad and should be held against him, but he will never be accepted as a leader by the Colombo based elite).

Both Ranil and Chandrika are pro-west. Ranil, in particular, is not pro-Indian. He is extremely pro-west. He comes from a Buddhist-Anglican background, his family members have been Christian priests, and he often quotes stories from the Bible in his speeches. He speaks the native Sinhalese language with difficulty and prefers English. He is also a very politically astute i.e cunning individual and - I'm sorry to to say this - will be able to manipulate the current Indian government quite easily (this last bit is my opinion mind you). His pro-LTTE stance was actually disconcerting to the Indian government when he was in power. He was the one who brought in Norway into the Sri Lankan conflict.

The new Sri Lankan government is exactly what the west wanted. Chandrika, for example went to university in France and lives in Britain. Her children live in Britain and many of her assets are in Britain. Her daughter is married to a Brit. She is a member of the Clinton Global Initiative and advisor to its annual meeting held every September.

The USA and Britain will be very happy with the outcome. It is not a coincidence that the first country to congratulate Sri Lanka on the outcome was the USA with John Kerry himself putting out a press release congratulating the Sri Lankan people and stating that the USA is looking forward to working closely with the new government.

IMO while Mahinda was pro China, it was also because China stood by Sri Lanka when the west was trying to stop the war and take him down via the UN.

Now India will have to work hard to keep the USA and Britain out of its "spehere of influence" along with China.

Basically you have Sri Lanka's Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi in power now.