Rafale in India: the signing of a contract seems unlikely

[Vergennes]

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[Muhammad Omar]

The Dassault Aviation Rafale will have to wait before landing in India (Credit: Reuters)
Sign, not sign? A priori, it still lacks a bit of time for India to sign the commercial contract for the purchase of 36 Rafale during the visit of Francois Hollande in New Delhi. Dassault Aviation and New Delhi still discussing prices tricolor fighters.
Francois Hollande will wait. Because a priori the planets are not yet fully aligned to New Delhi signed a check for the purchase of 36 Rafale during the three-day State visit of the French president, which begins Sunday. Nothing serious but India and Dassault Aviation are still discussing ... the price, according to several sources. There are still a few days, New Delhi was waiting for a new proposal for the tri-color manufacturer.

Not a cloud on the horizon
In short, the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi likely will not announce a final order. Everything else is ready, including the intergovernmental agreement (AIG) between France and India.Above all, there are no clouds on the horizon. Signing the contract is just a matter of time. The order value is estimated at between 10 and 12 billion euros, excluding armaments.

However, India and Dassault Aviation could sign early next week a memorandum of understanding in order not to completely lose face François Hollande, the guest of honor of the national holiday ("Republic Day"). It is also possible that the intergovernmental agreement was signed during the visit of the Head of State, who will meet Narendra Modi repeatedly starting Monday. "This invitation reflects the quality and dynamism of the strategic partnership between India and France, which will be further strengthened on this occasion ", had also tried the Elysee in a statement issued on 16 December.

The Department of Defense recommends buying the Rafale
The Indian Ministry of Defense announced on December 8 in a statement that the negotiating team, which was formed to discuss the terms and conditions of the purchase of 36 Rafale has "recommended a draft agreement." New Delhi, however, explained that the meetings between India and Dassault Aviation continued.

These devices and associated systems and armaments to be delivered"in the same configuration" as is required under the M-MRCA contract, which was canceled by New Delhi. The devices were tested and approved by the Indian Air Force. However, the ministry has requested that France retains responsibility for the maintenance of devices much longer than in M-MRCA.

A fleet of dangerous fighter
The Rafale "is approaching" its first contract in India, had also assured early November the CEO of Dassault Aviation, Eric Trappier."With India, the most important word, is patience," recalled Eric Trappier. "I think we approach the goal with a first contract for 36 aircraft. It will lead certainly to others after." Indian Prime Minister announced in April during his visit to France, an order for 36 aircraft from Dassault fighter "shelf" is ready to fly.

These fighters will be useful to protect the Indian airspace. Because during the last three years (2013 to November 2015), India has recorded 32 total violations of its airspace by aircraft of foreign countries. In addition, during the past ten years between 2003 and 2013, the Indian Air Force (IAF or Indian Air Force), Fourth World air power, lost 38 MiG-21, as the Indian Ministry of Defence. The IAF also has a fleet of 254 MiG-21 in service, which will gradually be removed from air bases, including MiG-21 T-77. The first MiG-21 entered service in the army of the Indian Air in March 1963

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The issue it seems is that IGA is done and dusted.. Its the annexure thats the issue.. It carries the price details .. haggling over two main issues.. 54 fixed price options from previous 36 where India is trying to get additional 3%-5% discount due to locking more numbers at one go...............

.. and a plan for a manufacturing line in India... Dassault uses almost 6000+ manpower from its own and dependent OEMs for producing a single Rafale and if a second line in Merignac comes in the the numbers may rise by almost 50% to 9000 people. with a increased productivity of almost 3 rafales/month .That may increase the human resources/wages cost by more than 30%-50%. This eats up the Dassault profitability and thus it needs a much larger order form multiple sources to show the benefit of increased productivity.

The biggest benefit it seems would be that Dassault trained manpower in India will cost much less than back in France indicating that Rafale Costs will come down by a good margin and will become far more attractive for exports as well as for India.

Now issue is Dassault is keen on a line In India but negotiation needs a fair amount of at least a tacit understanding on number of jets. The number is anyway bound to increase and eventually India may become a much bigger operator of Rafale than France or may be at same level (and astounding 300-400 Rafales)

@Abingdonboy @Vauban
Source has indicated India might tie up with France for AMCA project. The R&D of Dassault Rafale and certain cutting edge tech is coming from France. Now engine France wants Sncema M88 family a new type. India will have to invest a good sum as tech being brought is world class especially from Rafale onto AMCA.
This was an unexpected move from Indian side and thats why NSA Ajit Doval was a specially chosen envoy to discuss The N angle for our Black projects + the strategic tie up for AMCA

Rafale IAF and Rafale M will have dedicated squads for N delivery. In future both countries will use specific number of AMCA and AMCA-N for the same purpose.

Plan expects 2030-35 types for AMCA roll out of full fledged 6-10 protos.

Dont know if India will agree or not in final decision making.. the GE 414 angle and USA tech help is already there in Aston Carter meeting with DM MP when he visited US last year.

Humongous strategic implication

 

[Abingdonboy]

The biggest benefit it seems would be that Dassault trained manpower in India will cost much less than back in France indicating that Rafale Costs will come down by a good margin and will become far more attractive for exports as well as for India.

Now issue is Dassault is keen on a line In India but negotiation needs a fair amount of at least a tacit understanding on number of jets. The number is anyway bound to increase and eventually India may become a much bigger operator of Rafale than France or may be at same level (and astounding 300-400 Rafales)

The potential is there but at some point "the rubber has to hit the road" as the saying goes. Just get this deal signed at least and the rest will follow, it seems like we are still going round and round in circles. I appreciate it has only been around 9 months since the two sides started talking about this deal but even so it is an off the shelf purchase in a govt-govt process- it should be tied up soon. Once the birds is in service or at least close to being in service there won't be much scope to criticise the purchase or further purchases as the raw performance of the Rafale will more than silence the critics. All these false dawns are getting incredibly frustrating and the DM needs to show some leadership, he has constantly shyed away from making any declarative statments on the Rafale, in fact in 9+ months he has barely even mentioned the Rafale deal. The opaquness is really quite unjutsified- India is a democracy and the taxpayers deserve to be aware, to at least some degree, of what is happening.

The way the media is reporting this whole thing they have no idea about all the other strategic considerations being made but simply see India downscaling it's decades long MMRCA requirement to 36 and even then being unable to get the deal signed- it just looks bad on both sides.

One would have thought that the French president coming to India was the perfect oppurtunity to get this rather miniscule deal signed especially considering how optics focused Modi is.


+ @PARIKRAMA I'll get back to you on my thoughts on the AMCA angle, I have to go out for a while

 

[ANPP]

I think Mig 21 type 77 are already retired?

Anyway, by looking Rafale deal, it is clear that IAF cut spending only on plane number not on infrastructure. Means all existing facilities that serve for Mirag, will serve for rafale also. So we can see more order of Rafale in future.
IAF needs planes in very short time period because procurement is already delayed. Hence they give order of 36 only as they dont need give answers to media or opposition. Limiting the order is good explanation for not make in India.

 

[$@rJen]

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy

The article at post #2 says it costs 10 to 12 Billion Euros without the weapons !!!! Is this Accurate ????

 

[Grevion]

Seems like Manohar Parikar will be going the A. K. Anthony's way if the IAF didn't get any new fighters soon. Its been more then two years and still no major deal is signed by the new govt.to confront the depleting fighter strength.
The only difference there is that our current DM do not wants to commit to any major plan because of the chances of a better deal by the suppliers to grab a good chunk of the large Indian market while Anthony wanted his legacy to be superclean and did not made any progress due to the fear of the corruption in his department.

 

[Spectre]

All these talks with the typical Indian mentality of Kitna Deti Hai is not suitable for the lovely Rafale. We are not buying Maruti 800 or Alto.

For the impatient folks - It is more like choosing a wife in an arranged marriage. You can never be too sure

Rafale will come home when Mommy, Daddy and Panditji are happy so Chill!!

@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA @Levina

 

[Grevion]

All these talks with the typical Indian mentality of Kitna Deti Hai is not suitable for the lovely Rafale. We are not buying Maruti 800 or Alto.

For the impatient folks - It is more like choosing a wife in an arranged marriage. You can never be too sure

Rafale will come home when Mommy, Daddy and Panditji are happy so Chill!!

@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA @Levina

So you mean there will be a coconut breaking ceremony on rafale.

 

[dadeechi]

It's a good development. The deal is being delayed as the final price cannot be confirmed as the final numbers are not confirmed yet along with the agreement with Reliance for MII component. Hopefully this agreement could be sorted out in the next six months.

 

[Spectre]

So you mean there will be a coconut breaking ceremony on rafale.

Ya need to ask? Coconut, Tilak, Aaarti the whole nine yards

 

[dadeechi]

So you mean there will be a coconut breaking ceremony on rafale.

Mangni paccha hai lekin Shadi keliye time lagega