PWC projections for world economy in 2050

[Bussard Ramjet]

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
The World in 2050
The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?


According to the report, the Global Economy in 2050 would look like this:

In PPP terms

China: 58.5 trillion dollars
India: 44.1 trillion dollars
US: 34.1 trillion dollars

In Nominal terms

China: 49.9 trillion dollars
US: 34.1
India: 28

(I am reading the full report in depth, and am going to keep updating this thread with all other details.)

 

[randomradio]

Nominal average growth:
China 4.7%
US 2%
India 8.1%

PPP average growth:
China 3.2%
India 5%

 

[DCS]

In my opinion, these reports have always been too optimistic about the growth of emerging economies.

In China at least, I hope to see a few things moving forward. GNI growth will outpace GDP growth as China reorients from investment to consumption. GDP growth will slow significantly as credit growth is brought down to sustainable levels, and debt written down. Living standards will continue to improve in the interior regions, at a pace that will seem at odds with lower overall GDP growth. Nominal GDP growth will slow, but real GDP growth (good investment) will not be significantly impacted as excess capital is drained from the system.

As for those growth figures randomradio, if it is for the 2016-2050 period, then to my eyes at least it looks too high for China and India, especially in nominal terms. Generally speaking, the development of emerging economies has been consistently overestimated, and has generally fallen well short of expectations. I am not knowledgeable enough to comment on India, but for China at least, I believe we will pull through and become a high income economy. But it will be at a far slower pace than commonly expected, and initially many will interpret this as failure, but it is a natural process that all developing economies will have to undergo if they are to successfully transition to balanced growth.

 

[randomradio]

In my opinion, these reports have always been too optimistic about the growth of emerging economies.

In China at least, I hope to see a few things moving forward. GNI growth will outpace GDP growth as China reorients from investment to consumption. GDP growth will slow significantly as credit growth is brought down to sustainable levels, and debt written down. Living standards will continue to improve in the interior regions, at a pace that will seem at odds with lower overall GDP growth. Nominal GDP growth will slow, but real GDP growth (good investment) will not be significantly impacted as excess capital is drained from the system.

As for those growth figures randomradio, if it is for the 2016-2050 period, then to my eyes at least it looks too high for China and India, especially in nominal terms. Generally speaking, the development of emerging economies has been consistently overestimated, and has generally fallen well short of expectations. I am not knowledgeable enough to comment on India, but for China at least, I believe we will pull through and become a high income economy. But it will be at a far slower pace than commonly expected, and initially many will interpret this as failure, but it is a natural process that all developing economies will have to undergo if they are to successfully transition to balanced growth.

Normally, I never go by all these studies for their 'exactness'. They are good for learning the trends though.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Normally, I never go by all these studies for their 'exactness'. They are good for learning the trends though.

Exactly, 2050, is too far off. Anything can happen. India can go bust. China can go bust. What can we say?

Maybe Japan opens up to skilled immigration, which boosts its economy. Maybe US allows in far more higher number of immigrants.

So, this can only be taken as a guide to future trends.

 

[randomradio]

Exactly, 2050, is too far off. Anything can happen. India can go bust. China can go bust. What can we say?

Maybe Japan opens up to skilled immigration, which boosts its economy. Maybe US allows in far more higher number of immigrants.

So, this can only be taken as a guide to future trends.

I bet China will open up immigration as well.