Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[Indos]

Interesting analysis. My only bother is that JF-17 Block 3 production will most likely end by 2025. Between that and 2035 or 2047 - if PAC does not do any manufacturing, it will be idling a lot of production equipment, and losing a lot of its skilled personnel.

Also, by then the early block Jf-17 will need replacing as well as the Mirages and a good part of the F-16 fleet.

F-16s aren't rebuildable in the same way as Mirages because of the materials used. - Its relatively straightforward for a largely aluminum airframe like the Mirage but becomes highly complex when advanced alloys and carbon-based compounds are involved.

This suggests to me that "something needs to be manufactured after the JF-17". To me, that something is the first iteration of the Azm. PAC has always chosen a gradual evolutionary model rather than revolutionary change - with the Super-7, JF-17 prototype, JF-17, Block 3... we see this pattern.

It may just be more practical to do the same with the Azm, at least the early iterations of it.

PAC KAMRA IMO should become part supplier for big aerospace company like Boeing, Airbus, and Chinese companies to keep the industry going if in case JF 17 production is stopped. It is a profitable business and Singapore/Malaysia/Thailand aerospace focuses on this business and they can make huge sales just by selling parts. Pakistan has better relationship with China so Pakistan should try to find ways to become a part supplier of new Chinese civilian planes.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

I know I'm not always popular (at least to some) and thaks a lot for your reply.

May I add the question what type is the possible in Your opinion? You already mentioned the J-10CE and I must admit I see this type as the only viable option.

Thanks for your thoughts

With Swift Retort, I see the PAF has gotten a taste of large-scale offensive ops, like OCA, deep strike, etc. The JF-17 doesn't offer the range and payload (i.e., two REKs with fuel tanks is really light). There are political repercussions to the F-16.

So...?? If you want to build an offensive deterrent, then the PAF has 1 of 2 options:

1. SAC fast-tracks the FC-31 into a quasi-5/4.5-gen solution so that PAC can start building low-rate production frames after 2025-2026 (end of Block-III).

2. J-10CE, which already exists and leverages a huge suite of pre-integrated AAM and AGMs (which the PAF can use for offensive ops right away).

 

[GriffinsRule]

With Swift Retort, I see the PAF has gotten a taste of large-scale offensive ops, like OCA, deep strike, etc. The JF-17 doesn't offer the range and payload (i.e., two REKs with fuel tanks is really light). There are political repercussions to the F-16.

So...?? If you want to build an offensive deterrent, then the PAF has 1 of 2 options:

1. SAC fast-tracks the FC-31 into a quasi-5/4.5-gen solution so that PAC can start building low-rate production frames after 2025-2026 (end of Block-III).

2. J-10CE, which already exists and leverages a huge suite of pre-integrated AAM and AGMs (which the PAF can use for offensive ops right away).

I disagree on the J-10 completely as its load out is actually quite crappy, esp given that its a delta canard. Just compare its A-G config vs other 3 Euro-canards. Its certainly not any more impressive than JF-17

Our Mirages can do better actually than this. Ignoring the fact that if it were to carry a LGB this configuration would get even worse, I dont see how you are coming to your #2 conclusion.

Now that MMRCA is down the gutter, PAF actually could pursue Gripen E even if the F-16s are politically a poison pill so to say.

 

[KaiserX]

With Swift Retort, I see the PAF has gotten a taste of large-scale offensive ops, like OCA, deep strike, etc. The JF-17 doesn't offer the range and payload (i.e., two REKs with fuel tanks is really light). There are political repercussions to the F-16.

So...?? If you want to build an offensive deterrent, then the PAF has 1 of 2 options:

1. SAC fast-tracks the FC-31 into a quasi-5/4.5-gen solution so that PAC can start building low-rate production frames after 2025-2026 (end of Block-III).

2. J-10CE, which already exists and leverages a huge suite of pre-integrated AAM and AGMs (which the PAF can use for offensive ops right away).

PAFs only real option is to go for the FC-31 while focusing on the Project Azm. J-10 makes no sense for PAF to go for at the point in time. If it was a decade ago or 2015 things may be different because we would have started receiving a few squadrons by now. Procurements are never done taking into consideration the needs of today, but are done based off of what future needs may be a decade or 2 by now. Going for the J-10 would be the same as PAF going for the J-7 in the 80s but this time China has much better options available which will mature in the next few years.

FC-31 totally outclasses the J-10CE and the PAF are well aware of that. They would never put their time & funds into something like the J-10 which would provide such a minimal edge over what PAF already has with the JF-17 block 3.

Also some ArmChair generals here are claiming that PAF would have to replace older JF-17 or F-16s... why would that be? We can simply update the older JF-17s to block 3 and the F-16s with AESA radars and use them for a few more decades. But going for new F-16s or j-10s would make absolutely no logical sense when there are far better options available.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

PAFs only real option is to go for the FC-31 while focusing on the Project Azm. J-10 makes no sense for PAF to go for at the point in time. If it was a decade ago or 2015 things may be different because we would have started receiving a few squadrons by now. Procurements are never done taking into consideration the needs of today, but are done based off of what future needs may be a decade or 2 by now. Going for the J-10 would be the same as PAF going for the J-7 in the 80s but this time China has much better options available which will mature in the next few years.

FC-31 totally outclasses the J-10CE and the PAF are well aware of that. They would never put their time & funds into something like the J-10 which would provide such a minimal edge over what PAF already has with the JF-17 block 3.

Also some ArmChair generals here are claiming that PAF would have to replace older JF-17 or F-16s... why would that be? We can simply update the older JF-17s to block 3 and the F-16s with AESA radars and use them for a few more decades. But going for new F-16s or j-10s would make absolutely no logical sense when there are far better options available.

Yep I think the best outcome would be to pick-up the FC-31 lock, stock, and barrel. It'd be costly, sure, but we want a FGFA program anyways and, I think, it's one of those programs that's worth spending a lot on as the payoff would span many decades. We can iterate new and better variants over the long-term.

 

[RedHulk]

Yep I think the best outcome would be to pick-up the FC-31 lock, stock, and barrel. It'd be costly, sure, but we want a FGFA program anyways and, I think, it's one of those programs that's worth spending a lot on as the payoff would span many decades. We can iterate new and better variants over the long-term.

According to Wikipedia 3 countries already involved in j31 project.

 

[zhxy]

Our Mirages can do better actually than this. Ignoring the fact that if it were to carry a LGB this configuration would get even worse, I dont see how you are coming to your #2 conclusion.

Mirage is a great fighter. China could develop a similar aircraft and integrate J-10 and J-20 technologies. It will be an enemy's nightmare.

According to Wikipedia 3 countries already involved in j31 project.
View attachment 644699

Wikipedia is not a reliable source.

 

[Akh1112]

According to Wikipedia 3 countries already involved in j31 project.
View attachment 644699

yeah...no, just disregard that. ill correct it now.

 

[Deino]

According to Wikipedia 3 countries already involved in j31 project.
View attachment 644699

Which only proves how stupid the one was who faked this wiki-page and how less he knows on that matter.

So far this site has several errors: there is no J-31, it is a sole Chinese project only developed by SAC/AVIC and neither Pakistan nor - especially not, that's even plain ridiculous - Turkey!

 

[MastanKhan]

Which only proves how stupid the one was who faked this wiki-page and how less he knows on that matter.

So far this site has several errors: there is no J-31, it is a sole Chinese project only developed by SAC/AVIC and neither Pakistan nor - especially not, that's even plain ridiculous - Turkey!

Hi,

Do you have a link to prove that---. Or is it just assumption---?

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

So getting FC31 means AZM will end??

Yep I think the best outcome would be to pick-up the FC-31 lock, stock, and barrel. It'd be costly, sure, but we want a FGFA program anyways and, I think, it's one of those programs that's worth spending a lot on as the payoff would span many decades. We can iterate new and better variants over the long-term.

 

[Arsalan]

No. Rather, AZM won't be a mainstay fighter until much later (2040/2050s), so through the 2020s and 2030s the PAF would actually acquire a 4.5+ gen jet in large numbers to replace the F-16s and old JF-17s.

Unlikely sir. In my opinion we just need to wait for 4 to 5 more years to start getting early information about what really is happening and a further 4-5 years to see the initial product and that is at MAX. 2028-2030.

However since it will take further 4-5 years to be inducted in significant numbers AND the fact that JF-17 Blk 3 production will likely end around 2025-2026, personally i will LOVE a parallel 4.5 gen project running withing the Project Azm. Something based on existing plane, like JF-17 or J-10 etc BUT will be able to incorporate the technological advancement secured under the Project Azm FGFA development. Also that will allow PAC/PAF another 4 to 5 years if the need and target an advanced 5th generation fighter, may be even incorporating some features of a 6th generation which will be near to become a reality (if not already done) with Chinese partner. Now i know all this is a bit too ambitious but it do make sense to run a 4.5 gen project parallel to the 5th gen one especially when you have time (2025-2035 when PAC may have nothing to do), numbers to fill and large quantity required (Older JF-17, may be some F-16s too retiring and NOT enough money to induct the fifth gen in huge numbers), AND something to base that project on (JF-17 in case the FGFA partner is CAC and J-10 is it is SAC).

We know and all agree that 4.5 or 4th generation aircraft will be required in numbers during this time and FGFA wont be inducted in huge numbers.

To me, it is either this above explained option OR inducting J31 off the shelve which do not seem to be the mindset of PAC right now. With JF-17 they have tasted the flavor of a locally developed and produced aircraft with no limitations or strings attached, they wont go back on it that easily.

Exactly on point and even more my concerns. I cannot think that yet another fifth generation type by CAC could be developed and founded by Pakistan alone, when China has the FC-31 or as it seems J-35 in the making.
But again, we'll see.

FC-31 or as we called J-31 previously is the one that is going to be J-35. So that means two Fifth Gen aircrafts with China, heavier J-20 and lighter J-35. Same as F-22/F-35 mix with USAF.

 

[Deino]

Hi,

Do you have a link to prove that---. Or is it just assumption---?

No, I have no source, that tiny little green men live on Mars, but that does not make a claim "since you cannot prove they are not, so they must" valid.

Or in return: Do you have proof that Pakistan and Turkey is already involved in the FC-31 project?
Or is this again "just an assumption" on your own in the same way you agreed "in all accord" that a still secret Italian engine will power the Block 3, or it can already now use the AIM-120 AMRAAM? Or do you once again expect proof from me that it cannot?

 

[zhxy]

China does not want to risk gambling. In the past, China made mistakes, military cooperation with Turkey, transferred them many military technologies. At present Turkey is one of the countries with the most hostile attitude toward China. China does not want to repeat past mistakes.

According to Wikipedia 3 countries already involved in j31 project.
View attachment 644699

 

[Armchair]

Also some ArmChair generals here are claiming that PAF would have to replace older JF-17 or F-16s... why would that be? We can simply update the older JF-17s to block 3 and the F-16s with AESA radars and use them for a few more decades. But going for new F-16s or j-10s would make absolutely no logical sense when there are far better options available.

Hi, older block JF-17s cannot be upgraded to Block 3. In addition, I believe F-16s cannot be rebuilt over and over like Mirages. To what extent the earliest F-16s can be kept flying, particularly with rather higher use-age against India in recent months, is open to question.

Pakistan isn't in peace time really, there are constant tensions at the borders. This means using up far more flight hours. How long will Pakistan keep the oldest F-16s flying? This is not even discussing F-16 supply issues that could crop up in the near future, once US doesn't need Pakistan's help in AFG.

1. SAC fast-tracks the FC-31 into a quasi-5/4.5-gen solution so that PAC can start building low-rate production frames after 2025-2026 (end of Block-III).

2. J-10CE, which already exists and leverages a huge suite of pre-integrated AAM and AGMs (which the PAF can use for offensive ops right away).

The third option is to build an Azm with the JF-17's general FCS, radar, EW, etc (from Block 3) and put it in a larger and more stealthier airframe with a WS-10 /WS-15 engine. Basically going the Super Hornet route.

This is possible in 5-6 years. And would allow the continuation of a local manufactured fighter, unlike with the other options, which will essentially be either manufactured in China or locally assembled.

Meaning, Pakistan would be going two steps back from building its own fighters to essentially importing fighters from broad.