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Probability of full-pledged war for Karabakh is at least 90% - Khramchikhin
1news.az interviews deputy chief of the Russian Institute of political and military analysis, famous military expert Alexander Khramchikhin.
We currently observe very serious tension on the front line in Nagorno Karabakh. What is the possibility of a full-pledged war, in your opinion?
The probability of a full resumption of war in Karabakh is at least 90%. Another question is how soon this probability is realized. It depends, first and foremost, on Azerbaijan. Of course, I cannot predict when it will happen, but I am not going to guess. In addition, there is always a probability of uncontrolled escalation because of some accident, against the wishes of both parties. This may occur at any time.
The West has partially lifted sanctions on Iran. How do you think the relations between West and Tehran will further develop? And will this decision affect the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus?
The fact is that the West ( even the U.S. , not to mention Europe ) is absolutely not ready to war with Iran, but Israel and Saudi Arabia really want the military defeat of Iran. Accordingly, the West will try to negotiate with Iran and Israel, and Saudi Arabia will accuse Iran of all, regardless of whether the accusations are justified. Only Israel can start war, but it has no air tankers and some weapons (otherwise it would have struck). Thus, war is unlikely even if negotiations fail. Most likely, there will be an imitation of the peace process, as this meets the interests of both Iran and the West.
I do not see any connection with the Caucasus.
Meanwhile, Iran continues supporting Damascus and Syria is almost overwhelmed with chaos. There is a feeling that nobody knows what to do with this country. What are your predictions regarding the further development of the situation in Syria?
- Almost everyone in the West has realized that Russian is right supporting Assad. But the West will never admit mistakes, so it does not recognize this one. Military intervention is excluded and this was confirmed by the events of last autumn. There is no potential for such an invasion, and now the purpose is also lost. An apparent stalemate has developed inside Syria, none of the parties are able to achieve complete victory. More precisely, the government forces can win if the war drags on and stiffen between the opposition groups. Recognition of a stalemate by the parties is the fact that they agreed to direct talks in Montreux. Nevertheless, the current situation will be preserved in the foreseeable future. .
How soon will Ukraine overcome the political crisis? Will opposition manage to remove Yanukovich from the political arena? And how will Moscow react to this story?
I think a legitimate division of Ukraine into 2 or 3 parts is the most appropriate way to resolve the crisis for Ukraine itself, more precisely, for its population . In this case, the incompatible parts of the country would cease to torment each other. However, the power and oligarchic capital, between which there is no significant difference, are not interested in that, it is profitable for them to rob integral Ukraine and extract rents from the imperious integrity of Ukraine. Therefore, there are no political forces supporting separation, although there are enough grassroots supporters in all parts of Ukraine. However, if the current crisis deepens, it can lead to eventual loss of all the levers to influence the situation by both the power and ‘staff opposition’. Then the process of fragmentation can start by itself in the chaotic regime. It is difficult to estimate the probability now because the situation is extremely uncertain, all policies are weak, the security forces are not loyal to anyone.
Moscow evidently realizes that now there is a chance for division of Ukraine, but it is quite a complex operation. At the same time, of course, there can be no question of direct military intervention. Yanukovich is not interesting for Moscow but there is no obvious alternative leader in eastern and southern Ukraine so far.
News.Az - Probability of full-pledged war for Karabakh is at least 90% - Khramchikhin
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There is olympics going on in Russia's Caucasus. Sensitive time for Russia..
1news.az interviews deputy chief of the Russian Institute of political and military analysis, famous military expert Alexander Khramchikhin.
We currently observe very serious tension on the front line in Nagorno Karabakh. What is the possibility of a full-pledged war, in your opinion?
The probability of a full resumption of war in Karabakh is at least 90%. Another question is how soon this probability is realized. It depends, first and foremost, on Azerbaijan. Of course, I cannot predict when it will happen, but I am not going to guess. In addition, there is always a probability of uncontrolled escalation because of some accident, against the wishes of both parties. This may occur at any time.
The West has partially lifted sanctions on Iran. How do you think the relations between West and Tehran will further develop? And will this decision affect the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus?
The fact is that the West ( even the U.S. , not to mention Europe ) is absolutely not ready to war with Iran, but Israel and Saudi Arabia really want the military defeat of Iran. Accordingly, the West will try to negotiate with Iran and Israel, and Saudi Arabia will accuse Iran of all, regardless of whether the accusations are justified. Only Israel can start war, but it has no air tankers and some weapons (otherwise it would have struck). Thus, war is unlikely even if negotiations fail. Most likely, there will be an imitation of the peace process, as this meets the interests of both Iran and the West.
I do not see any connection with the Caucasus.
Meanwhile, Iran continues supporting Damascus and Syria is almost overwhelmed with chaos. There is a feeling that nobody knows what to do with this country. What are your predictions regarding the further development of the situation in Syria?
- Almost everyone in the West has realized that Russian is right supporting Assad. But the West will never admit mistakes, so it does not recognize this one. Military intervention is excluded and this was confirmed by the events of last autumn. There is no potential for such an invasion, and now the purpose is also lost. An apparent stalemate has developed inside Syria, none of the parties are able to achieve complete victory. More precisely, the government forces can win if the war drags on and stiffen between the opposition groups. Recognition of a stalemate by the parties is the fact that they agreed to direct talks in Montreux. Nevertheless, the current situation will be preserved in the foreseeable future. .
How soon will Ukraine overcome the political crisis? Will opposition manage to remove Yanukovich from the political arena? And how will Moscow react to this story?
I think a legitimate division of Ukraine into 2 or 3 parts is the most appropriate way to resolve the crisis for Ukraine itself, more precisely, for its population . In this case, the incompatible parts of the country would cease to torment each other. However, the power and oligarchic capital, between which there is no significant difference, are not interested in that, it is profitable for them to rob integral Ukraine and extract rents from the imperious integrity of Ukraine. Therefore, there are no political forces supporting separation, although there are enough grassroots supporters in all parts of Ukraine. However, if the current crisis deepens, it can lead to eventual loss of all the levers to influence the situation by both the power and ‘staff opposition’. Then the process of fragmentation can start by itself in the chaotic regime. It is difficult to estimate the probability now because the situation is extremely uncertain, all policies are weak, the security forces are not loyal to anyone.
Moscow evidently realizes that now there is a chance for division of Ukraine, but it is quite a complex operation. At the same time, of course, there can be no question of direct military intervention. Yanukovich is not interesting for Moscow but there is no obvious alternative leader in eastern and southern Ukraine so far.
News.Az - Probability of full-pledged war for Karabakh is at least 90% - Khramchikhin
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is olympics going on in Russia's Caucasus. Sensitive time for Russia..
