This hypothetical idea came to me after reading the F-16 Saga for the PAF through the PAF's official history till 2008. The nuclear journey along with the winding down of the Afghan war is really what killed the F-16s for Pakistan but what if?
WHAT IF ORBAT?
What if as the Soviet Union withdrew but the collapse did not happen till 1995 with them opting to only release East Germany for reunification and still supporting the Afghan government with arms- the Afghan war continues and Pakistan is still supported in some way. In addition, while Bill Clinton does come to power he doesn't ride a democratic landslide and republicans still control a lot of the house and senate who still have a soft corner for Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear program continues but very slowly so that by 1998 it has only 1-2 test units and not an operational arsenal or delivery systems.
Pakistan is able to procure additional F-16s and opts to change its follow up order for F-16s to F-16 block 32s including purchasing E-2Cs and eventually making a final purchase of F-16 Block 40s released with KC-135Es from EDA articles and new build C-130H-IIs to grow the transport fleet and make up for attrition that are delivered by 1997 under the guarantee that Pakistan will not go nuclear.
This allows the PAF to retire the oldest Mirages instead of seeking upgrades keeping only Mirage Vs for strike and maritime support duties.
The remaining PAF Fleet is composed of F-7P and MP skybolts that form the interceptor core. In addition, the PAF also opts to purchase 2 odd I-Hawk SAMs to keep near Mushaf and Masroor.
What emerges is a fleet of:
54 F-16 A/Bs, 32 F-16C block 32s and 32 F-16C block 42s for a total of 118 F-16s
106 F-7P/MP SkyBolts
50 Mirage VPA/PA2/PA3/D
for a total of 274 combat aircraft
and
4 E-2C group 1 Hawkeyes
4 KC-135E
These are distributed at:
In 1990 the USAF delivered AIM-7M -III Sparrows for the F-16Block 32s giving the PAF its first BVR capability - the F-16A do have the ability to use them as well but the limited stock(100) is kept focused in the north. It was only with the purchase of the F-16 Block-40s that some 300 AIM-120As have been delivered giving the PAF a massive edge over India with key US congressmen and the Indians protesting vehemently. This was only narrowly approved by a small republican/democrat majority under the underwritten clause that Pakistan will only use Nuclear power for civilian purposes.
As these developments were underway, India was not going to let itself be completely outpaced by Pakistan and even as preparations for the Pokhran-II test were underway the Indian fleet had been steadily grown and upgraded. A Bison upgrade was underway giving 3 squadrons of the Mig-21s Kopyo Radar and new R-77 use. 2 additional squadrons of Mig-29C(M) were purchased to augment the A(M) models in service with the former capable of employing the AA-10 and R-77 missile. 2 squadrons of Mig-23s were also upgraded to Mig-23MLD standard and an order had been placed with the French for Mirage 2000-5s making India the launch customer that led to an Indian fleet still having very potent numbers of technologically advanced aircraft. Finally, the USSR delivered recently completed A-50M systems equipped with the Soviet Mainstay radar systems that let India have a fleet of
68 Mig-29A/C
70 Mig-23 BN/MF/MLD
142 Mig-21MF/Bison
68 Mig-27M
104 Jaguar IS/IT/IM
54 Mirage 2000H/TH +18 Mirage 2000-5
for a total of 522 combat aircraft.
While a very potent fleet, the F-16s are still considered a very serious threat especially in A2A combat and the IAF remains a little nervous about its exchange ratio in an air war but assures its leadership that if push comes to shove it will be able to keep the PAF at bay.
Pre-Scenario:
After India conducts the Pokran-II tests there is pandemonium within Pakistani leadership. The test devices need another 8 months to have enough test data and enriched uranium available to reply with massive pressure coming in from western leadership to not proceed further with the United States threatening sanctions if Pakistan conducts a test. On the Indian side, this reality has given them the idea of launching a Siachen+ operation aimed at cutting off some pakistani infiltration that was seen in both the Kargil Drass sector and recent beheadings on the LoC. With the nuclear overhang the Hindu-nationalist BJP leadership is being goaded by its lower constituents to shore up areas of Pakistan which are seen as a threat to any future Kashmir operations and then use the expected international peace intervention to settle the Kashmir dispute with a much more favorable position for India.
As intelligence on these debates in India reaches Pakistan, certain military leaders decide to preempt the Indians by launching their own operation to take key Kashmir areas.
Goal: I want to see how the non-pressler PAF would perform and most importantly impact the outcome of a Kargil like conflict especially being able to go toe-to-toe with the Top A2A fighter in the Mig-29 and the M2k-5. How would that change the equation for IAF air support across the LoC and Kashmir and if that would force the conflict to escalate and spill into an all out conflict especially without nuclear weapons preventing it.
More to come......
WHAT IF ORBAT?
What if as the Soviet Union withdrew but the collapse did not happen till 1995 with them opting to only release East Germany for reunification and still supporting the Afghan government with arms- the Afghan war continues and Pakistan is still supported in some way. In addition, while Bill Clinton does come to power he doesn't ride a democratic landslide and republicans still control a lot of the house and senate who still have a soft corner for Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear program continues but very slowly so that by 1998 it has only 1-2 test units and not an operational arsenal or delivery systems.
Pakistan is able to procure additional F-16s and opts to change its follow up order for F-16s to F-16 block 32s including purchasing E-2Cs and eventually making a final purchase of F-16 Block 40s released with KC-135Es from EDA articles and new build C-130H-IIs to grow the transport fleet and make up for attrition that are delivered by 1997 under the guarantee that Pakistan will not go nuclear.
This allows the PAF to retire the oldest Mirages instead of seeking upgrades keeping only Mirage Vs for strike and maritime support duties.
The remaining PAF Fleet is composed of F-7P and MP skybolts that form the interceptor core. In addition, the PAF also opts to purchase 2 odd I-Hawk SAMs to keep near Mushaf and Masroor.
What emerges is a fleet of:
54 F-16 A/Bs, 32 F-16C block 32s and 32 F-16C block 42s for a total of 118 F-16s
106 F-7P/MP SkyBolts
50 Mirage VPA/PA2/PA3/D
for a total of 274 combat aircraft
and
4 E-2C group 1 Hawkeyes
4 KC-135E
These are distributed at:
In 1990 the USAF delivered AIM-7M -III Sparrows for the F-16Block 32s giving the PAF its first BVR capability - the F-16A do have the ability to use them as well but the limited stock(100) is kept focused in the north. It was only with the purchase of the F-16 Block-40s that some 300 AIM-120As have been delivered giving the PAF a massive edge over India with key US congressmen and the Indians protesting vehemently. This was only narrowly approved by a small republican/democrat majority under the underwritten clause that Pakistan will only use Nuclear power for civilian purposes.
As these developments were underway, India was not going to let itself be completely outpaced by Pakistan and even as preparations for the Pokhran-II test were underway the Indian fleet had been steadily grown and upgraded. A Bison upgrade was underway giving 3 squadrons of the Mig-21s Kopyo Radar and new R-77 use. 2 additional squadrons of Mig-29C(M) were purchased to augment the A(M) models in service with the former capable of employing the AA-10 and R-77 missile. 2 squadrons of Mig-23s were also upgraded to Mig-23MLD standard and an order had been placed with the French for Mirage 2000-5s making India the launch customer that led to an Indian fleet still having very potent numbers of technologically advanced aircraft. Finally, the USSR delivered recently completed A-50M systems equipped with the Soviet Mainstay radar systems that let India have a fleet of
68 Mig-29A/C
70 Mig-23 BN/MF/MLD
142 Mig-21MF/Bison
68 Mig-27M
104 Jaguar IS/IT/IM
54 Mirage 2000H/TH +18 Mirage 2000-5
for a total of 522 combat aircraft.
While a very potent fleet, the F-16s are still considered a very serious threat especially in A2A combat and the IAF remains a little nervous about its exchange ratio in an air war but assures its leadership that if push comes to shove it will be able to keep the PAF at bay.
Pre-Scenario:
After India conducts the Pokran-II tests there is pandemonium within Pakistani leadership. The test devices need another 8 months to have enough test data and enriched uranium available to reply with massive pressure coming in from western leadership to not proceed further with the United States threatening sanctions if Pakistan conducts a test. On the Indian side, this reality has given them the idea of launching a Siachen+ operation aimed at cutting off some pakistani infiltration that was seen in both the Kargil Drass sector and recent beheadings on the LoC. With the nuclear overhang the Hindu-nationalist BJP leadership is being goaded by its lower constituents to shore up areas of Pakistan which are seen as a threat to any future Kashmir operations and then use the expected international peace intervention to settle the Kashmir dispute with a much more favorable position for India.
As intelligence on these debates in India reaches Pakistan, certain military leaders decide to preempt the Indians by launching their own operation to take key Kashmir areas.
Goal: I want to see how the non-pressler PAF would perform and most importantly impact the outcome of a Kargil like conflict especially being able to go toe-to-toe with the Top A2A fighter in the Mig-29 and the M2k-5. How would that change the equation for IAF air support across the LoC and Kashmir and if that would force the conflict to escalate and spill into an all out conflict especially without nuclear weapons preventing it.
More to come......
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