PDF Debate : Can ISIS establish a state in Iraq & Syria?

[Kompromat]

Hello members.

This is the first of the proposed PDF debates | Proposing PDF debates.

Please note that this debate is not open to anyone but the panelists until its closed. The Q&A session will commence after the debate has ended.

Question- Can ISIS establish a state in Syria and Iraq?

Team A will defend the 'for' notion and present arguments on how it is possible that ISIS will succeed in building a state in Syria and Iraq.

Team A participants > @jhungary - @Peter C - @scorpionx

Team B will refute this notion and present arguments on how it is impossible for ISIS to establish such a state in Syria and Iraq.

Team B participants > @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Nihonjin1051 @AUSTERLITZ

Debate will be moderated by @Horus and @Oscar

Notice - Please note that this debate doesn't necessarily reflect the personal opinion of our panelists. This first debate will be used to gauge the potential for this format. We will judge its strengths and weaknesses to make it better as more debate topics are added. It is likely that we add a fortnightly poll in the future to democratically let the members decide the topic in the near future.

Thank you.

 

[Kompromat]

Team A participants > @jhungary - @Peter C - @scorpionx

Why will the ISIS succeed in establishing a state in Iraq and Syria?

Team B participants > @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Nihonjin1051 @AUSTERLITZ

Why will the ISIS fail in establishing a state in Iraq and Syria?

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

There's no shortage of cases is the past where some military leader takes over a country whether the people like it or not. The question is does the world support "meddling" ...ie where the US, or UN, or some other block of countries makes a concerted effort to toss the person out. If the tactic is economic then the average person is caught in the middle and suffers. If the tactic is a military one the average person ends up risking being killed. Not a great set of choices.

 

[PoKeMon]

@Horus

Can such thread be restricted to only participant team members and nominated moderators?

Rest can just watch and enjoy -

Once we are done with debate, it can be opened for other members to comment.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

ISIS will fail because-

1.Overwhelming number of enemies arrayed against it - Its grand strategy is nihilistic.It has no hope of fighting the whole world.The usa has not even expended 1% of its true strength on them,if sufficiently provoked it could annihilate this organization in 2 months using ground troops this time.

2.Lack of regional support -No strategic depth.

3.Legitimacy dependant on continuing conquest -which have already been halted and begun to be pushed back.

4.Support base limited to syrian and iraqi sunni elements only.Except jordan and turkey it has no sunni areas it can expand to,and both have well trained armed forces.Doesn't have manpower to expand into shiitte or kurdish areas.

5.Coalition airpower,though slow but steadily will wear them down.Coupled with surveillence on turkish border and oil refinaries blown up the pinch in manpower and funds will be felt over a longer period.

6.Failure at local governance.Excessive brutality causes dissent among its own areas.

7.Time not on their side.Iraqis have manpower,money,equipment.All they need is training.This will take time perhaps -a year or two,.but disparity in resources makes result inevitable due to supportof iran and usa as well.
Kurds are experienced and have manpower but not enough equipment.This is slowly also changing.

8.No industry - This is an army that lives on salvaged,captured and smuggled equipment.It has no industrial base(its opponents being provided equipment by usa/iran).This sort of warfighting is incapable of waging a war of attrition which is exactly what it has boiled down to now,especially when it is totally exposed from the air.It can sustain a guerilla war for quite a long period using tunnels -but a longstanding state with definite territorial holdings is beyond its capabilities.

In all i give this organization 2-3 years before it loses the bulk of its territory.Iraqi holdings will be lost first.Syria may take longer due to complicated political puzzle.The grandiose caliphate will collapse and the survivors will go back to guerrilla warfare.This may continue for decades,but the force as a state will be finished in 2-3 years in iraq.Will take longer in syria.Overall its just a matter of time.

 

[jhungary]

When is the dissertation period finish as I am working on something else and have no access of a desktop at home...If I were to write this, I will need to go to a library or something to type it quicker...

 

[MastanKhan]

ISIS will fail because-

1.Overwhelming number of enemies arrayed against it - Its grand strategy is nihilistic.It has no hope of fighting the whole world.The usa has not even expended 1% of its true strength on them,if sufficiently provoked it could annihilate this organization in 2 months using ground troops this time.

2.Lack of regional support -No strategic depth.

3.Legitimacy dependant on continuing conquest -which have already been halted and begun to be pushed back.

4.Support base limited to syrian and iraqi sunni elements only.Except jordan and turkey it has no sunni areas it can expand to,and both have well trained armed forces.Doesn't have manpower to expand into shiitte or kurdish areas.

5.Coalition airpower,though slow but steadily will wear them down.Coupled with surveillence on turkish border and oil refinaries blown up the pinch in manpower and funds will be felt over a longer period.

6.Failure at local governance.Excessive brutality causes dissent among its own areas.

7.Time not on their side.Iraqis have manpower,money,equipment.All they need is training.This will take time perhaps -a year or two,.but disparity in resources makes result inevitable due to supportof iran and usa as well.
Kurds are experienced and have manpower but not enough equipment.This is slowly also changing.

8.No industry - This is an army that lives on salvaged,captured and smuggled equipment.It has no industrial base(its opponents being provided equipment by usa/iran).This sort of warfighting is incapable of waging a war of attrition which is exactly what it has boiled down to now,especially when it is totally exposed from the air.It can sustain a guerilla war for quite a long period using tunnels -but a longstanding state with definite territorial holdings is beyond its capabilities.

In all i give this organization 2-3 years before it loses the bulk of its territory.Iraqi holdings will be lost first.Syria may take longer due to complicated political puzzle.The grandiose caliphate will collapse and the survivors will go back to guerrilla warfare.This may continue for decades,but the force as a state will be finished in 2-3 years in iraq.Will take longer in syria.Overall its just a matter of time.

Hi,

Thank you for the excellent post.. It shows you that if you take the predictability out of the equation---the result is total chaos---.

It only works some of the times when the public overthrows their dictator---but when nations like united states does it---it ends up in chaos----and chaos is the father of terrorists groups like the isis to take control----.

 

[Kompromat]

@Horus

Can such thread be restricted to only participant team members and nominated moderators?

Rest can just watch and enjoy -

Once we are done with debate, it can be opened for other members to comment.

Unfortunately i don't have that filter feature. Its just to our normal members to allow the courtesy so our participants can finish the debate and then do the Q&A.

 

[Aepsilons]

ISIS will fail because-

1.Overwhelming number of enemies arrayed against it - Its grand strategy is nihilistic.It has no hope of fighting the whole world.The usa has not even expended 1% of its true strength on them,if sufficiently provoked it could annihilate this organization in 2 months using ground troops this time.

2.Lack of regional support -No strategic depth.

3.Legitimacy dependant on continuing conquest -which have already been halted and begun to be pushed back.

4.Support base limited to syrian and iraqi sunni elements only.Except jordan and turkey it has no sunni areas it can expand to,and both have well trained armed forces.Doesn't have manpower to expand into shiitte or kurdish areas.

5.Coalition airpower,though slow but steadily will wear them down.Coupled with surveillence on turkish border and oil refinaries blown up the pinch in manpower and funds will be felt over a longer period.

6.Failure at local governance.Excessive brutality causes dissent among its own areas.

7.Time not on their side.Iraqis have manpower,money,equipment.All they need is training.This will take time perhaps -a year or two,.but disparity in resources makes result inevitable due to supportof iran and usa as well.
Kurds are experienced and have manpower but not enough equipment.This is slowly also changing.

8.No industry - This is an army that lives on salvaged,captured and smuggled equipment.It has no industrial base(its opponents being provided equipment by usa/iran).This sort of warfighting is incapable of waging a war of attrition which is exactly what it has boiled down to now,especially when it is totally exposed from the air.It can sustain a guerilla war for quite a long period using tunnels -but a longstanding state with definite territorial holdings is beyond its capabilities.

In all i give this organization 2-3 years before it loses the bulk of its territory.Iraqi holdings will be lost first.Syria may take longer due to complicated political puzzle.The grandiose caliphate will collapse and the survivors will go back to guerrilla warfare.This may continue for decades,but the force as a state will be finished in 2-3 years in iraq.Will take longer in syria.Overall its just a matter of time.

Excellent post, Sir ! I'll add my this week. Still am researching.

 

[Kompromat]

When is the dissertation period finish as I am working on something else and have no access of a desktop at home...If I were to write this, I will need to go to a library or something to type it quicker...

As soon as you can.

 

[Aepsilons]

Team A participants > @jhungary - @Peter C - @scorpionx

Why will the ISIS succeed in establishing a state in Iraq and Syria?

Team B participants > @AgNoStiC MuSliM @Nihonjin1051 @AUSTERLITZ

Why will the ISIS fail in establishing a state in Iraq and Syria?

Thanks, Sir. Will make my input this week.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

The biggest problem that isis will have is that of food shortage----but my concern is about the weapons---where is it getting its weapons supply from. Where is all the ammo coming from to fight this campain----.

Who is supplying them with the bullets----?

 

[haviZsultan]

If Saud's wahabi family once established a state by ripping women's feotus's then ISIS can form one too if US is not involved. US is involved this time and will never allow the ISIS to take over. Saudi and many other countries including Pakistan too stand against a new wahabi state that promotes terrorism worldwide like the Taliban regime in Afghanistan

 

[jhungary]

I just finished my article and now awaiting some part of it to come back from NSA make sure there are nothing out of line lol......

so I will work on the debate next. probably by the end of next week.

 

[scorpionx]

ISIS will eventually succeed in establishing a state (not in a stereotyped westernized sense) in Iraq and Syria for multiple reasons such as political, sociological and military as well which makes it a modestly formidable if not invincible force in the region. The reasons are as follows.

· Eclipse of conventional state system in Iraq and Syria: borders those were created in Sykes-Picot agreement after World War I are severely challenged and the ineptness of the governments in Iraq and Syria to control its own borders has been able to comfort the radicalized armed movement against the Shiite regime with unstable effort to minimize sectarian conflict and unbroken resurrection of Sunni elite insurgence. Porous border that was created after the Syrian civil war today provides pleasant sanctuaries for IS and its sympathizers. Iraq and Syria’s perennial inability to provide a solution for the ancient Shia-Sunni strife further aggravates the threat of annihilation to these two state systems.


· The ineffectiveness of the International communities especially the US to assess the ground situation has so far bolstered the organization’s ability to command and control all its movable and immovable assets. The US anti-terror policy has proved to be a complete failure when it came to establish an effective set up to fight the ISIS. The United states has painfully stayed away from aiding the pro-American, secular and moderate Syrian Kurds who have been able to hold their position against the IS for two long years. When Turkey is negotiating with PYD’s sister organization PKK, the US decision not to help the Kurds is not only surprising but an extraordinary proof of misguided anti-terror policy. Although the KRG is getting their military and financial sustenance from the US, but that has far from being adequate as the aids go to the Kurds via Baghdad and the tacit mutual distrust between the Baghdad and KRG, the effectiveness of military resistance against the IS has vastly paralyzed.


· The US efforts to construct a regional alliance to counter the threat of IS has so far been far from meeting the demand of reality. The traditional distrust between the US and Iran fuelled by the US apprehension that Iran might not lose opportunity to gain control of Shiite provinces of Iraq has vitalised the unabated continuance of IS victories and almost ceaseless dominance in the region.


· Unlike its predecessors Islamic Caliphate is more than just a rogue, militant organisation. From an essentially military force it has slowly transformed itself to a system that can effectively govern the areas ‘once the dust of war is settled’. IS has demonstrated its power to build and sustain local religious police force, schools and Sharia as a legal doctrine to be strictly followed by its subjects. It has a very meticulously planned command structure comprising of councils dealing with legalities, finance, security, military, fighter assistance and intelligence which makes it unique and more organized than any other similar organisation. The group’s hold of many of the oilfields of eastern Syria (especially the largest oilfield Omar) has made it one of the richest military organisations in history.


Only time will tell us about the destiny of this ruthless and barbaric militant organisation, but its coordinated administrative and military command hierarchy, flexible battle plans, antipathy and disgust against the Shiite regime and most significantly the feebleness of International action especially due to absence of western/US boots on ground with the lack of unity among Arab nation states make the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria a lamentable possibility in near future.