Pax Indica: Indian elephant in Lankan room

[Gibbs]

Note: An opinion piece from an Indian perspective, So the dig taken at Pakistan is expected, Other than that somewhat accurate.. As far as IndoLanka relations goes there will always be that elephant in the room

Pax Indica: Indian elephant in Lankan room

Neena Gopal

On a visit to Islamabad when she was President of Sri Lanka, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga (CBK), in a veiled reference to India, spoke of her island nation’s concerns over being dominated by a bigger neighbour. India, was the obvious, unnamed elephant in the room. That remark found huge resonance within Pakistan, eager as always to score points off India, and assiduously court Colombo by supplying arms and intelligence to the Sri Lankan Army, which was in the throes of battling the gritty Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

The Manmohan Singh government, caught between the perils of alienating the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, its pro-Lankan Tamil, southern ally, at the cost of pleasing Colombo, had turned foot-dragging into an art form. Most Sri Lankans — including CBK — saw Delhi’s reluctance to play military benefactor, while publicly airing concerns over the continued marginalisation of a Tamil populace, still in thrall to the idea of a Tamil homeland Eelam, as meddling in their internal affairs.

Ignored was Delhi’s munificence — foreign direct investment from India has been around $1 billion since 2003 with another billion in the pipeline, which together with investments and government to government assistance of $2.6 billion, 30 per cent grants and balance soft loans on easy terms is close to $4.6 billion. Roughly a decade after her Islamabad clanger, the hard-headed former President had this to say in New Delhi last week: “It’s clear that India is the region’s big power and no one can wish that away even if they want to… Rajapaksa was trying to do that. But even if Sri Lanka attempts it, the world recognises India as the leader in the region. We have to deal with the realities.”

Coming as it did, weeks after Ms Kumaratunga’s one-time protégé and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was roundly trounced in parliamentary polls, it must count as a turning point in India-Sri Lanka relations. The continued economic upsurge in a democratic India has made its emergence as the growing power in South Asia — with no hegemonic intent — virtually unstoppable. Countries in India’s near abroad, in the Gulf and as far afield as Australia and Japan see India as a key security partner in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific. Colombo, clearly does not want to be left out of the strategic politico-economic calculus, or continue to alienate its biggest neighbour.


Ms Kumaratunga’s singular turnaround, the recognition and acknowledgement of India’s leadership role in the region has been a long time coming; both, for Ms Kumaratunga and the rest of the political class in Sri Lanka. There may have been a personal element to CBK’s journey from India-sceptic to India-supporter. In the run up to the electoral thunderstorm of January 2015 that drowned out Mr Rajapaksa and snapped his family’s stranglehold on the Sri Lankan polity, Ms Kumaratunga had worked quietly behind the scenes alongside long-time political rival Ranil Wickremesinghe in bringing their two opposing political forces together to end Mr Rajapaksa’s unchallenged nine-year run as President.

The Rajapaksa family’s efforts to relegate her to the margins of history, isolate her from her own party and erase and override the Bandaranaike family legacy, may have something to do with the former President’s change of heart. But it was more than personal. It marked a strategic course correction. It underscored the alarm within the Sri Lankan polity at the manner in which her hand-picked successor had jettisoned years of Colombo’s carefully crafted balancing act vis-à-vis India under her leadership, to cock a snook at Delhi and bring in the Chinese; who, with the aim of approximating the Indian Ocean had already acquired key port Hambantota in Sri Lanka and docked submarines off the coast.

In admitting she played a central role as the figure around whom groups opposed to Mr Rajapaksa coalesced — both from within her Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the Opposition United National Party, she cleared India of Mr Rajapaksa’s charge that its counter-intelligence Research and Analysis Wing had a direct role to play in his ouster in the January 2015 poll. It rid the incumbent Maithripala Sirisena government of the taint that he played footsie with Delhi to win in January. And in ending the canard that Lankan columnists and social media had circulated, that the “victory was not Mr Sirisena’s or Mr Wickremesinghe’s, but India’s, she sent a message to the Sri Lankan people, who have twice in the space of less than six months voted against Mr Rajapaksa, that it is they, and they alone who were responsible for seeing him to the door.

Ms Kumaratunga’s statement underscores India’s attempt, as much as that of the new power triumvirate in Sri Lanka of the need to re-invent ties between the two nations, and put the relationship back on even keel. Replicating the Sri Lankan President Sirisena, who also made India his first stop in March soon after the 2015 polls, the island nation’s newly elected Prime Minister Wickremesinghe arrives in Delhi, September 14, on his first foreign visit since he was elected Prime Minister on August 21 on the back of sustained diplomacy by India — and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and their respective foreign ministers — not to lose the momentum.

The remarkable turnaround has one more element that assuaged Indian concerns — the political accommodation of the Sri Lankan Tamils. With the election of R. Sampanthan, leader of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the main constituent of the rainbow Tamil grouping Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi, as the head of the country’s Opposition, the first Tamil to be appointed to the post in the last 22 years, Sri Lanka, under its new leadership, may have just squared that circle. Ms Kumaratunga heads the Reconciliation Committee, made easier by the mood of reconciliation on the island where Tamil voters rejected extremist parties funded by the Tamil diaspora, and extremist candidates within the TNA.

How far India will work behind the scenes to help Sri Lanka shed the charge of alleged war crimes against the Tamils under Mr Rajapaksa will be the key test of this new-found bonhomie, when Lankan foreign minister, Mangala Samaraweera, addresses the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Monday, the opening day of its 30th session. Mr Rajapaksa’s China tilt may have run its course. But the Indian elephant is still in the room. This time though, it may have Sri Lanka’s permission to be there.

 

[Levina]

, So the dig taken at Pakistan is expected

Not sure about that, but India is concerned by China's growing footage in Indian ocean, any country would feel threatened by the presence of a bigger country in its sea and neighborhood. India for its own good would not want Colombo to yield to Beijing. This is called survival of the fittest.
I do not see a reason why India is perceived as a threat by few Sri-lankans. In the past India burnt its fingers by sending its army to SL for peace-keeping, but that was 2 decades back. India has learnt its lessons. In the present scenario, compared to China India has cultivated much deeper ties to Sri Lanka through investment and trade. The Chinese projects were mostly concentrated in Rajapaksa's home town. Projects like the Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port operate significantly under capacity. In comparison India not just invested in SL but also agreed to a free trade agreement with SL, so now Indian imports from Sri Lanka are four times China’s. Rajapaksa's bonhomie with China was out of selfish interest rather than a strategically significant maneuver.
Social similarities further connect Sri Lanka and southern India.
Sri-Lankan prime minister was right when he said “When there is stability in the Indian Ocean, India and Sri Lanka prosper,”

 

[Gibbs]

Not sure about that, but India is concerned by China's growing footage in Indian ocean, any country would feel threatened by the presence of a bigger country in its sea and neighborhood. India for its own good would not want Colombo to yield to Beijing. This is called survival of the fittest.
I do not see a reason why India is perceived as a threat by few Sri-lankans. In the past India burnt its fingers by sending its army to SL for peace-keeping, but that was 2 decades back. India has learnt its lessons. In the present scenario, compared to China India has cultivated much deeper ties to Sri Lanka through investment and trade. The Chinese projects were mostly concentrated in Rajapaksa's home town. Projects like the Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port operate significantly under capacity. In comparison India not just invested in SL but also agreed to a free trade agreement with SL, so now Indian imports from Sri Lanka are four times China’s. Rajapaksa's bonhomie with China was out of selfish interest rather than a strategically significant maneuver.
Social similarities further connect Sri Lanka and southern India.
Sri-Lankan prime minister was right when he said “When there is stability in the Indian Ocean, India and Sri Lanka prosper,”

Thats was in response to this.. Written by a Indian commentator so the veiled attack on Pakistan is quite expected

That remark found huge resonance within Pakistan, eager as always to score points off India, and assiduously court Colombo by supplying arms and intelligence to the Sri Lankan Army, which was in the throes of battling the gritty Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

India is not perceived a threat by few Sri Lankans but by a majority.. Those are facts, Post colonial history is one good indication when the Indira doctrine made the whole region unstable because of Indian hegemonic ambitions at that time, It impacted the island strongly because the devastating conflict that it had to endure partly to blame on Indian policy of that time to destabilize the country under the auspicious of Tamil rights, Which in the end turned out to be nothing but political rhetoric.. Something like a 30 years of devastation of a once prosperous nation and those responsible for it cannot be erased in a manner of few years of better bilateral relationship.. It will take time and major role on the Indian side to alleviate those fears

Second point is also completely wrong.. The Chinese have investments all over the country , More so in deep south because thats where the Rajapaksa constituency lies, Nor because of any preference on Chinese part.. And Sino/Lanka relationship didnt start with the Rajpaksa's nor will it end with then.. It has always been a very strong mutual bilateral relationship going back to the 60's at it's height.. So you're very much misinformed there

Chinese investments comes with no political string s attached, Indians cant do that owing to thier pandering to thier own southern polity.. So on the contrary to your claim Indian investments or grants have been exclusively concentrated on the Northern parts of the Island more specifically to the Tamils.. Now Northern Tamil population is mere 12% of the population in the island, So there is inevitable imbalance of Indian interests viz a viz Sri Lankan people.. Which also leads to questioning of Indian priorities

From the days of independence Indian policy towards the island have always been through the prism of it's minority Tamils and India's own Tamil Nadu politics.. The Modi admin atleast is seem to be making an concerted effort to get away from it.. So lets see how that would work for the benefit of both countries.. As it stands, India will always seen with apprehension

 

[Levina]

Chinese investments comes with no political string s attached,

1) I hope you know that China's investment in SL come largely as loans, at times charging as much as about 3 to 6% interest while in comparison World Bank and the Asian Development Bank offer loans at 0.25 to 3% and some countries like Japan and Kuwait lend at as less as 0.1 to 0.2%.
2) Yes, China has invested in public infrastructure but these projects come with strings attached. These projects are usually financed by China’s Export-Import Bank and the contracts 're to Chinese state owned companies, which then bring their own labor and raw materials. I'm not sure how would that help your economy?
3) Lets take a few case histories (other than the Rajapaksa international airport discussed in my previous post)
a) Norochcholai coal power plant- finished in 2011, costly breakdowns, costed about a quarter of its operation life. The company which undertook the maintenance was also a chinese company.
‘Always breakdown’ Norochcholai power plant exposed in Parliament

b) China funded express highways: They 're wide and luxuriously smooth but it doesnt have the traffic.


4) Now coming to India, i have already mentioned in my previous post that we import SL goods 4 times more than China. And add to it the fact that India agreed to $1.5 billion currency swap in order to keep the Sri Lankan rupee stable.

5) There are no free lunches!!! I do not blame China, in its efforts to take the country forward they have made investments in many countries which give them good returns. India would also not do anything for gratis, we are not so rich.
I hope you got the drift of it.

India is not perceived a threat by few Sri Lankans but by a majority..

Somehow the Sri Lankans that I've interacted to have never given me such an impression.
I still maintain my stance that only a few in SL hold anti-India opinions.

The Modi admin atleast is seem to be making an concerted effort to get away from it.

Glad you noticed it.
Lets wait and watch...

 

[Gibbs]

1) I hope you know that China's investment in SL come largely as loans, at times charging as much as about 3 to 6% interest while in comparison World Bank and the Asian Development Bank offer loans at 0.25 to 3% and some countries like Japan and Kuwait lend at as less as 0.1 to 0.2%.

Nobody is under illusions that Chinese projects are investments not grants, But thats not to say say they don not give grants, The performing art theater, BMICH etc are Chinese gifts to the Sri Lankan people over time.. So it's a multi faceted exchange

2) Yes, China has invested in public infrastructure but these projects come with strings attached. These projects are usually financed by China’s Export-Import Bank and the contracts 're to Chinese state owned companies, which then bring their own labor and raw materials. I'm not sure how would that help your economy?

Ofcause it helps the economy in large scale, Infrastructure development is a priority to the govt after decades of neglect owing to the conflict, And the time factor, Considered Chinese expertise helps speed things up.. Labor and raw materials are local contrary to false propaganda, Many projects are sub contracted to local contractors, Only the engineering and management level are manned by Chinese

a) Norochcholai coal power plant- finished in 2011, costly breakdowns, costed about a quarter of its operation life. The company which undertook the maintenance was also a chinese company.
‘Always breakdown’ Norochcholai power plant exposed in Parliament

Norochcholai is fully functional now, After few hiccups more due to incompetence of local power maintenance engineers and govt corruption

And Sri Lanka is the only country in the region with no power shortage 24/7, and 100% electricity coverage

b) China funded express highways: They 're wide and luxuriously smooth but it doesnt have the traffic.

All the highways are running at capacity and with high revenue.. Two more are coming up one to Kandy and the other to the North with Chinese and Japanese funding.. Ofcause you wont see them clogged with traffic as you would in India.. You're reading way too much in to anti Chinese propaganda.. Lol..

4) Now coming to India, i have already mentioned in my previous post that we import SL goods 4 times more than China. And add to it the fact that India agreed to $1.5 billion currency swap in order to keep the Sri Lankan rupee stable.

The new govt has a more centrist foreign policy, Which is good and good bilateral economic and political relationship with India is a good thing, I advocate that.. Close proximity of the two nations is the reasons for high trade volume, Thats obvious and cannot be taken as a moot point over China

Somehow the Sri Lankans that I've interacted to have never given me such an impression.
I still maintain my stance that only a few in SL hold anti-India opinions.

Vast majority of Sri Lankans have apprehensions about India given it's history and relations.. Those are facts..And will remain so.. Especially given the attritional policies of TN have yet to diminish.. Which is central to that relationship.. Whether to construe that as anti India stance is up to the level of insecurity Indians have regard to that ..

The OP describes this reality very well.. Maybe the Lankans you interacted were too polite to express that in person, Sometimes Lankans are too polite for thier own good

 

[Levina]

Nobody is under illusions that Chinese projects are investments not grants, But thats not to say say they don not give grants, The performing art theater, BMICH etc are Chinese gifts to the Sri Lankan people over time.. So it's a multi faceted exchange



Ofcause it helps the economy in large scale, Infrastructure development is a priority to the govt after decades of neglect owing to the conflict, And the time factor, Considered Chinese expertise helps speed things up.. Labor and raw materials are local contrary to false propaganda, Many projects are sub contracted to local contractors, Only the engineering and management level are manned by Chinese



Norochcholai is fully functional now, After few hiccups more due to incompetence of local power maintenance engineers and govt corruption

And Sri Lanka is the only country in the region with no power shortage 24/7, and 100% electricity coverage



All the highways are running at capacity and with high revenue.. Two more are coming up one to Kandy and the other to the North with Chinese and Japanese funding.. Ofcause you wont see them clogged with traffic as you would in India.. You're reading way too much in to anti Chinese propaganda.. Lol..



The new govt has a more centrist foreign policy, Which is good and good bilateral economic and political relationship with India is a good thing, I advocate that.. Close proximity of the two nations is the reasons for high trade volume, Thats obvious and cannot be taken as a moot point over China

No sire!
We've a healthy competition with China. In past few years the world has come to admire China for surpassing everyone' expectations with its development. But you do understand that we can not let China enter our sphere of influence. I regret that India declined the opportunity to build Hambantota port.
While you were going gaga about China's development projects you completely ignored the fact that India is supporting infrastructure projects such as the construction of a power plant, 27000 new homes, the dredging of the war-devastated Kankesanthurai port; and the reconstruction of the Northern Railway Line.
Btw you did not tell me what you've to say about the interest rates at which China lends you money.

Vast majority of Sri Lankans have apprehensions about India given it's history and relations.. Those are facts..And will remain so.. Especially given the attritional policies of TN have yet to diminish.. Which is central to that relationship.. Whether to construe that as anti India stance is up to the level of insecurity Indians have regard to that ..

Lol
Do you take Vaiko guy seriously??
Back in India we do not sympathize with him.
The congress government for electoral reasons, and to maintain the UPA coalition government, needed to weigh the demands of Tamil Nadu’s chief ministers concerning Tamil populations in Sri Lanka, but Modi government which has won with clear majority doesn't need to support likes of Vaiko or Tamil Nadu chief ministers and ergo the change in foreign policies.

The OP describes this reality very well.. Maybe the Lankans you interacted were too polite to express that in person, Sometimes Lankans are too polite for thier own good

Personally, I find Sri-lankans very friendly and open minded, but none that I've met ever spoke against India.

 

[Gibbs]

No sire!
We've a healthy competition with China. In past few years the world has come to admire China for surpassing everyone' expectations with its development. But you do understand that we can not let China enter our sphere of influence. I regret that India declined the opportunity to build Hambantota port.
While you were going gaga about China's development projects you completely ignored the fact that India is supporting infrastructure projects such as the construction of a power plant, 27000 new homes, the dredging of the war-devastated Kankesanthurai port; and the reconstruction of the Northern Railway Line.
Btw you did not tell me what you've to say about the interest rates at which China lends you money.

Again all those mentioned projects exclusive to the North or to the Tamils, Which bring's me back to my main point why 88% of the rest of Sri Lankans have questions regarding India's priorities in Sri Lanka.. Lets see how the Modi administration can change that perception

Appreciating China's success in the infrastructure projects is natural, No strings attached, No discrimination on whom they are going to benefit, And the speed and efficiency.. The only mega project that India has undertaken the Sampur power project is going on for half a decade now and still to get off the ground, While China has finished and handed over over a dozen mega infrastructures

So it should'nt be surprising that the Chinese find the local populations more appreciative.. And yes India needs to up the game if India is to beat the Chinese in influence

Yes the lending rates are high, Because quality and efficiency comes with a price.. Like i said nobody is under any illusion that Chinese investments are both financial and political beneficial to them.. But there are willing buyers all over the world not just in Sri Lanka

Lol
Do you take Vaiko guy seriously??
Back in India we do not sympathize with him.
The congress government for electoral reasons, and to maintain the UPA coalition government, needed to weigh the demands of Tamil Nadu’s chief ministers concerning Tamil populations in Sri Lanka, but Modi government which has won with clear majority doesn't need to support likes of Vaiko or Tamil Nadu chief ministers and ergo the change in foreign policies.

It's not just Vaiko, It's the whole TN polity, Just today the TN legislature, Passed a resolution demanding the center not to recognize it's southern neighbor as a non friendly country.. So as far as Indo/Lanka bilateral relations are held at a ransom in Madras, Nothing much can go forward.. However much you try to down play it

Personally, I find Sri-lankans very friendly and open minded, but none that I've met ever spoke against India

Well generally Lankans are friendly and open minded, That comes with their island vibe, But that does not mean they're not aware of realpolitik played in their backyard

Like i said some are too polite for thy're own fault, Having apprehensions about something does not mean they're anti anything.. That needs to be distinguished clearly

 

[SarthakGanguly]

I find Sri-lankans very friendly and open minded, but none that I've met ever spoke against India.

Almost all have a favorable impression of India and vice versa. Those who do not will not change their stance no matter what. Do your thing.

 

[Gibbs]

Almost all have a favorable impression of India and vice versa. Those who do not will not change their stance no matter what. Do your thing.

Lol.. So you know the whole 20 million of them ? Just because people have apprehensions or concerns about a particular country does not mean they're against it or have hate towards it people.. If you think that, that's just you're insecurity taking over rationality

As in the case of Indo/Lanka relations go this is a fact.. And it's quite natural to have those apprehensions for majority of Lankans given the history and the demographics

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Lol.. Just because people have apprehensions or concerns about a particular country does not mean they're against it or have hate towards it people.. If you think that, that's just you're insecurity taking over rationality

As in the case of Indo/Lanka relations go this is a fact.. And it's quite natural to have those apprehensions for majority of Lankans given the history and the demographics

How did you deduce a general post of mine to be a directed nuclear attack on you in particular? You give yourself too much importance. Relax.

Similarly, just because you and your friends have an inferiority complex vis a vis India does not mean the rest of the your country will have it as well. I think SL is sufficiently diverse for that.

 

[Gibbs]

How did you deduce a general post of mine to be a directed nuclear attack on you in particular. You give yourself too much importance. Relax.

Similarly, just because you and your friends have an inferiority complex vis a vis India does not mean the rest of the your country will have it as well. I think SL is sufficiently diverse for that.

Again.. You mentioned almost all of Sri Lankan's have a favorable out look of India ? So how did you come to that conclusion ? Lol

No i didnt take it personally but that was a veiled attempt to under score a pertinent point i made, So i chose to respond

And i t has nothing to do with us posters here, this is general perception about India within the larger community in Sri Lanka, As the OP written by a Indian analyst rightfully observes.. It's not that Lankans are anti India or has a dislike for it (The reason you seem to take offence to that shows your inferiority complex mate, Not ours)

Maybe you should read the article by a person who is probably much more nuanced about Sri Lankan people, politics and their perceptions than you are.. That's what this thread is about

 

[Star Wars]

I have been to Sri Lanka, Neither me nor my parents encountered any hate or any kind of opposition, only a lot of bragging during 1996 world cup win....

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Again.. You mentioned almost all of Sri Lankan have a favorable out look of India ? So how did you come to that conclusion ? Lol

No i didnt take it personally but that was a veiled attempt to under score a pertinent point i made, So i chose to respond

And i t has nothing to do with us posters here, this is general perception about India within the larger community in Sri Lanka, As the OP written by a Indian analyst rightfully observes.. It's not anti India or dislike for it (The reason you seem to take offence to that shows your inferiority complex mate, Not ours)

Maybe you should read the article by a person who is probably much more nuanced about Sri Lankan people, politics and their perceptions than you are.. That's what this thread is about

No. You made no point. You only made allegations. I used the term - 'I think that SL is more diverse...'. Not 'I know'.

And you took it personally enough to post about 8 sentences with an emotional bracketed clarification.

 

[Gibbs]

I have been to Sri Lanka, Neither me nor my parents encountered any hate or any kind of opposition, only a lot of bragging during 1996 world cup win....

Again.. What's the need to use this word hate so liberally ? Nobody hates anybody.. Particularly when it comes to general populations

No. You made no point. You only made allegations. I used the term - 'I think that SL is more diverse...'. Not 'I know'.

And you took it personally enough to post about 8 sentences with an emotional bracketed clarification.

Almost all have a favorable impression of India and vice versa. Those who do not will not change their stance no matter what. Do your thing.

Just to jot your memory.. And the bracketed clarification was to show you the mirror over your direct accusation of Lankan posters here

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Just to jot your memory.. And the bracketed clarification was to show you the mirror over your direct accusation of Lankan posters here

Well. In my defense, I am closer to SL than you are. Beat that. I have more first hand info.