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Past imperfect, present tense, future indefinite
Sunday, 15 May 2016 | Vineeta Pandey | in Agenda
Pakistan At The Crossroads
Author- KK Nayyar
Publisher- Random House, Rs699
Eventually, Pakistan may be forced to rework its strategy vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India by reducing support to non-state militant actors. To keep its soil terror free, Pakistan has no choice but to normalise relations with the two countries, says VINEETA PANDEY
Nothing could have been more well-timed than this book on Pakistan, that too from Christophe Jaffrelot who has spent a lifetime on the shaping up of South Asia. Interestingly, Pakistan at the crossroads — Domestic Dynamics and External Pressures has come at a time when speculation is high of a possible military coup, the fifth in its 69 years of existence. What has led to this speculation is Pakistan army chief Gen Raheel Sharif’s statement on probity for those in public life soon after sacking a dozen of his officers for corruption. Some circles read the Army chief’s words as an indication to his Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to quit in the wake of his name appearing in the Panama Leaks. Then there is Imran Khan breathing down Sharif’s neck, first questioning his election and now making corruption an issue. Though Nawaz Sharif is trying to fight back the pressure both from civil and military fronts, he knows a storm is brewing up in his backyard.
The book gives a gripping analysis of the challenges facing Pakistan against the backcloth of oft-erupting tensions between its civil and military leaders and the issues that plague a democracy. It explains in detail how the military manages to overlook the political scenario, and political parties usually play in its hand. The role of judiciary in the tussle between political and military is also interesting. Besides these internal factors, there is an elaborate discussion on Pakistan’s foreign policy — ‘perception of threat’ from India and Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s relations with the US, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Jaffrelot is a noted French social scientist who has written a lot on India and Pakistan. In this book, he curates a collection of essays on Pakistan by various researchers and experts who presented the papers at two conferences at Columbia University. While writers have explained in-depth internal and external policies and problems staring Pak, Jaffrelot has perfectly summed up the past, present and future by explaining the interesting connect between current political situation and history. Explained through examples and anecdotes the book keeps you hooked like a fiction novel.
Pakistan military (mainly the Army and ISI) has always had a major influence on the political situation of the country due to which only one elected Government managed to complete its term. And nothing can alter the power structure in which military-ISI is the supreme, though the judiciary at times does the balancing act. In fact, over the years Pakistan military has become much more powerful due to the weakness of political class which leans on the ISI and military to best its adversaries.
Aqil Shah explains in ‘Military and Democracy’ how military coups aborted all of Pakistan’s previous transition to democracy and even when not in power, the armed forces maintained a tight grip on national politics. Due to the perceived threat from India, the civilian leadership has from time to time diverted resources to defence and given the generals a virtual free hand to manage the national security issue. But growing media focus on the military and its scandals has made the military cautious and careful, and Gen Raheel Sharif’s action of sacking his men explains that the Fauj at all cost would like to maintain its credibility.
However, Pakistan’s democracy is afflicted by other problems as well. By and large political parties have failed to deliver. Corruption, failed governance, inflation, energy shortages, poor infrastructure and public services have reduced the people’s trust in elected Governments. The youth is struggling for jobs and opportunities for better life. The class divide in the society has only grown over the years with rich having all the means while poor and lower middle class fight a daily battle for survival. There is a certain amount of anguish among people over their military spending instead of health, education and infrastructure.
There is a question mark on media’s freedom. ISI’s “Information Management Wing” on one side pampers journalists with money and exclusive stories to influence public opinion in adverse situations. It also penalises those not falling in line. The brutal dismembering of journalist Saleem Shehzad just a day after he exposed the links between Al Qaeda and navy personnel and the murderous attempt on popular Geo TV anchor Hamid Mir are just a few examples. Nevertheless, media by large is proactive and keeps a tight vigil.
Philip Oldenburg in his chapter on judiciary has said the lordships have played the role of a rubber stamp in legitimising military-bureaucratic rule. But judiciary of late has also done a fairly good balancing act in bringing back the rule of law whenever the democratic structure crumbled — from lawyers and judges agitation in 2007 to reign in the Pervez Musharraf Government. Though the courts may not be as assertive as they were during Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry’s time, there are efforts to make political competition cleaner and bring back voters to electoral process. But before that judiciary itself has a tough task of cleaning its image after questions have been raised on judicial appointments and corruption in lower courts.
Pakistan’s relationship with India is always one step forward and two steps backward. Since the core issues are terrorism and Kashmir, not much positive has happened over several years. No one has doubts that Pakistan has sponsored terrorism against India, and relations between the two countries cannot improve as long as Jihadi groups continue to target India. Talks between two sides are held hostage to Pakistan’s civil-military relations. The latest example is Indian PM Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif’s attempt to reduce tension and start talking. These suffered a blow with a terror attack on Pathankot air base.
Even though Pakistan launched its war against terrorism — Zarb-e-Azb — it has selectively targeted militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which targets the Pakistani military and political class rather than export its deadly craft to neighbouring countries. Jaffrelot explains that at present Pakistan is staring at major security challenges domestically and within its own provinces rather than from India. The dirty proxy war in Afghanistan and Kashmir is now turning a full circle, and, as they say terror begets terror, Pakistan has suffered heavy terror violence of late due to support it gave to Jihadis for decades. But eventually, Pakistan may be forced to rework its strategy vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India by reducing support to non-state militant actors. And, to keep its own soil terror free and have normalcy domestically, Pakistan has no choice but to normalise relations with both India and Afghanistan.
Despite their latest verbal volleys on the sale of F-16, Jaffrelot predicts that the US will remain a key partner by default to Pakistan establishment even though the American administration may reduce its support because of the financial crunch and fewer troops to supply to Afghanistan. Besides there is change in situation vis-à-vis India over few years — first under George Bush and then under Barack Obama — and Washington has become much closer to New Delhi than before.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/sunday-edition/past-imperfect-present-tense-future-indefinite.html
Sunday, 15 May 2016 | Vineeta Pandey | in Agenda
Author- KK Nayyar
Publisher- Random House, Rs699
Eventually, Pakistan may be forced to rework its strategy vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India by reducing support to non-state militant actors. To keep its soil terror free, Pakistan has no choice but to normalise relations with the two countries, says VINEETA PANDEY
Nothing could have been more well-timed than this book on Pakistan, that too from Christophe Jaffrelot who has spent a lifetime on the shaping up of South Asia. Interestingly, Pakistan at the crossroads — Domestic Dynamics and External Pressures has come at a time when speculation is high of a possible military coup, the fifth in its 69 years of existence. What has led to this speculation is Pakistan army chief Gen Raheel Sharif’s statement on probity for those in public life soon after sacking a dozen of his officers for corruption. Some circles read the Army chief’s words as an indication to his Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to quit in the wake of his name appearing in the Panama Leaks. Then there is Imran Khan breathing down Sharif’s neck, first questioning his election and now making corruption an issue. Though Nawaz Sharif is trying to fight back the pressure both from civil and military fronts, he knows a storm is brewing up in his backyard.
The book gives a gripping analysis of the challenges facing Pakistan against the backcloth of oft-erupting tensions between its civil and military leaders and the issues that plague a democracy. It explains in detail how the military manages to overlook the political scenario, and political parties usually play in its hand. The role of judiciary in the tussle between political and military is also interesting. Besides these internal factors, there is an elaborate discussion on Pakistan’s foreign policy — ‘perception of threat’ from India and Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s relations with the US, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Jaffrelot is a noted French social scientist who has written a lot on India and Pakistan. In this book, he curates a collection of essays on Pakistan by various researchers and experts who presented the papers at two conferences at Columbia University. While writers have explained in-depth internal and external policies and problems staring Pak, Jaffrelot has perfectly summed up the past, present and future by explaining the interesting connect between current political situation and history. Explained through examples and anecdotes the book keeps you hooked like a fiction novel.
Pakistan military (mainly the Army and ISI) has always had a major influence on the political situation of the country due to which only one elected Government managed to complete its term. And nothing can alter the power structure in which military-ISI is the supreme, though the judiciary at times does the balancing act. In fact, over the years Pakistan military has become much more powerful due to the weakness of political class which leans on the ISI and military to best its adversaries.
Aqil Shah explains in ‘Military and Democracy’ how military coups aborted all of Pakistan’s previous transition to democracy and even when not in power, the armed forces maintained a tight grip on national politics. Due to the perceived threat from India, the civilian leadership has from time to time diverted resources to defence and given the generals a virtual free hand to manage the national security issue. But growing media focus on the military and its scandals has made the military cautious and careful, and Gen Raheel Sharif’s action of sacking his men explains that the Fauj at all cost would like to maintain its credibility.
However, Pakistan’s democracy is afflicted by other problems as well. By and large political parties have failed to deliver. Corruption, failed governance, inflation, energy shortages, poor infrastructure and public services have reduced the people’s trust in elected Governments. The youth is struggling for jobs and opportunities for better life. The class divide in the society has only grown over the years with rich having all the means while poor and lower middle class fight a daily battle for survival. There is a certain amount of anguish among people over their military spending instead of health, education and infrastructure.
There is a question mark on media’s freedom. ISI’s “Information Management Wing” on one side pampers journalists with money and exclusive stories to influence public opinion in adverse situations. It also penalises those not falling in line. The brutal dismembering of journalist Saleem Shehzad just a day after he exposed the links between Al Qaeda and navy personnel and the murderous attempt on popular Geo TV anchor Hamid Mir are just a few examples. Nevertheless, media by large is proactive and keeps a tight vigil.
Philip Oldenburg in his chapter on judiciary has said the lordships have played the role of a rubber stamp in legitimising military-bureaucratic rule. But judiciary of late has also done a fairly good balancing act in bringing back the rule of law whenever the democratic structure crumbled — from lawyers and judges agitation in 2007 to reign in the Pervez Musharraf Government. Though the courts may not be as assertive as they were during Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry’s time, there are efforts to make political competition cleaner and bring back voters to electoral process. But before that judiciary itself has a tough task of cleaning its image after questions have been raised on judicial appointments and corruption in lower courts.
Pakistan’s relationship with India is always one step forward and two steps backward. Since the core issues are terrorism and Kashmir, not much positive has happened over several years. No one has doubts that Pakistan has sponsored terrorism against India, and relations between the two countries cannot improve as long as Jihadi groups continue to target India. Talks between two sides are held hostage to Pakistan’s civil-military relations. The latest example is Indian PM Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif’s attempt to reduce tension and start talking. These suffered a blow with a terror attack on Pathankot air base.
Even though Pakistan launched its war against terrorism — Zarb-e-Azb — it has selectively targeted militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which targets the Pakistani military and political class rather than export its deadly craft to neighbouring countries. Jaffrelot explains that at present Pakistan is staring at major security challenges domestically and within its own provinces rather than from India. The dirty proxy war in Afghanistan and Kashmir is now turning a full circle, and, as they say terror begets terror, Pakistan has suffered heavy terror violence of late due to support it gave to Jihadis for decades. But eventually, Pakistan may be forced to rework its strategy vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India by reducing support to non-state militant actors. And, to keep its own soil terror free and have normalcy domestically, Pakistan has no choice but to normalise relations with both India and Afghanistan.
Despite their latest verbal volleys on the sale of F-16, Jaffrelot predicts that the US will remain a key partner by default to Pakistan establishment even though the American administration may reduce its support because of the financial crunch and fewer troops to supply to Afghanistan. Besides there is change in situation vis-à-vis India over few years — first under George Bush and then under Barack Obama — and Washington has become much closer to New Delhi than before.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/sunday-edition/past-imperfect-present-tense-future-indefinite.html
