Papua New Guinea Gov Fails to Pass Budget as Key Allies Defect to Opposition Bench - Change of Gov Likely

[Logam42]

Papua New Guinea stands by for new government after MPs abandon James Marape
Opposition takes control of parliament and prepares for no-confidence motion on 1 December to end Marape’s premiership

PNG’s opposition leader, Belden Namah, shut down parliament on Thursday with the support of government ministers and members in an effort to remove prime minister James Marape from power. Photograph: Supplied/The Guardian


Papua New Guinea could be set to install a new government after dozens of government members – including nine ministers – abandoned prime minister James Marape in parliament to sit on the opposition benches.
The opposition took control of parliament on Thursday and voted 57-39 to suspend parliament, ostensibly to block the passage of the government’s budget, but more fundamentally to remove Marape.

Parliament has been suspended until 1 December, when a motion of no-confidence will be moved against Marape.
Marape’s brief prime ministership appears imperilled, and he may find himself dislodged from power by a range of opposition forces allied against him.




Critics of Marape, in particular the opposition leader Belden Namah, have accused the prime minister of under-delivering on promises around corruption reform and economic development, and of leading a government of empty slogans such as “take back PNG” or promising to make PNG “the richest black Christian nation” on earth.

Marape was also criticised for failing to arrest those responsible for a massacre in Tari last year, in which 18 women and children were killed, despite promises that tribal violence and sorcery killings would be stamped out.
His support for an abortive but expensive deep-sea mining project in the Bismarck Sea, and his attempt to nationalise Porgera mine, were also held up as significant failures.

Under PNG’s constitution, new governments are given an 18-month grace period following an election before a vote of no-confidence can be brought against a prime minister. Marape became prime minister after elections in May 2019.
Marape’s grace period expires on 30 November, but opposition forces, bolstered by dissenting members of the government, have sought to block the budget.
With parliament now suspended, that budget will not be handed down, and the no-confidence motion will be brought the day after Marape’s grace period runs out.

Marape has lost key frontbench supporters, including the deputy PM Sam Basil, foreign affairs minister Patrick Pruaitch, and commerce and trade minister William Duma.
But he has vowed to fight on, saying “it’s not over till it’s over”, and saying he was rallying support to secure the 56 votes needed to hold power.

“Papua New Guineans must know this is a debate between those who want to maintain the status quo of corruption, big boys’ elite politics, multinational lobbyism for foreign interests, and those new leaders with a blend of strong experience, patriotic leaders who want to do the right thing, changing [the] country’s policies and laws for a better future for our children,” Marape said.

Controlling PNG’s unicameral parliament is a perennial challenge for prime ministers. Governments are drawn from loose and broad coalitions, often reliant on personal alliances.
But these are prone to sudden rupture, and Marape was always vulnerable. His Pangu party controls only 23 seats in the 111-seat parliament, and he relied, as PNG prime ministers have before him, on the support of numerous other parties.




Namah, a former military officer and deputy PM with a long and colourful career in parliament, appears unlikely to be PNG’s next prime minister.

There are several candidates to succeed Marape, including East Sepik governor Allan Bird, the deputy leader of the People’s National Congress party, Richard Maru, and the foreign affairs minister, Pruaitch.
The former prime minister Peter O’Neill, who remains a prominent MP, is not considered a realistic chance to retake the premiership.

Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, is set to visit PNG next week. PNG is Australia’s nearest neighbour and its former territory, and Australia remains the country’s largest aid donor and most influential relationship.
Morrison would not be drawn on the upheaval in PNG on Friday.

“I’m not going to speculate on those events,” he said. “But it’s my intention to be with prime minister Marape next Wednesday as planned.”
___________________________________________________

Basically, the PNG law says that new governments have 18 month grace period before a motion of no-confidence (Think of it as impeachment of Prime Minister) can be tables in parliament. Now for the current gov that grace period ends at 1 December. Apparently, PNG political elite really want the current PM gone as soon as possible since they are already blocking his proposed budget and suspending parliament, basically freeze it until the likely no-confidence vote.

Current PM is actually one of the best PNG has had for decades, but he's been too reformist and has angered too many people. PNG is now going to be stuck with a deadlocked parliament, a blocked budget, and executive upheaval as it enters the next stage of corona crises.

 

[Nike]

Papua New Guinea stands by for new government after MPs abandon James Marape
Opposition takes control of parliament and prepares for no-confidence motion on 1 December to end Marape’s premiership

PNG’s opposition leader, Belden Namah, shut down parliament on Thursday with the support of government ministers and members in an effort to remove prime minister James Marape from power. Photograph: Supplied/The Guardian


Papua New Guinea could be set to install a new government after dozens of government members – including nine ministers – abandoned prime minister James Marape in parliament to sit on the opposition benches.
The opposition took control of parliament on Thursday and voted 57-39 to suspend parliament, ostensibly to block the passage of the government’s budget, but more fundamentally to remove Marape.

Parliament has been suspended until 1 December, when a motion of no-confidence will be moved against Marape.
Marape’s brief prime ministership appears imperilled, and he may find himself dislodged from power by a range of opposition forces allied against him.

Critics of Marape, in particular the opposition leader Belden Namah, have accused the prime minister of under-delivering on promises around corruption reform and economic development, and of leading a government of empty slogans such as “take back PNG” or promising to make PNG “the richest black Christian nation” on earth.

Marape was also criticised for failing to arrest those responsible for a massacre in Tari last year, in which 18 women and children were killed, despite promises that tribal violence and sorcery killings would be stamped out.
His support for an abortive but expensive deep-sea mining project in the Bismarck Sea, and his attempt to nationalise Porgera mine, were also held up as significant failures.

Under PNG’s constitution, new governments are given an 18-month grace period following an election before a vote of no-confidence can be brought against a prime minister. Marape became prime minister after elections in May 2019.
Marape’s grace period expires on 30 November, but opposition forces, bolstered by dissenting members of the government, have sought to block the budget.
With parliament now suspended, that budget will not be handed down, and the no-confidence motion will be brought the day after Marape’s grace period runs out.

Marape has lost key frontbench supporters, including the deputy PM Sam Basil, foreign affairs minister Patrick Pruaitch, and commerce and trade minister William Duma.
But he has vowed to fight on, saying “it’s not over till it’s over”, and saying he was rallying support to secure the 56 votes needed to hold power.

“Papua New Guineans must know this is a debate between those who want to maintain the status quo of corruption, big boys’ elite politics, multinational lobbyism for foreign interests, and those new leaders with a blend of strong experience, patriotic leaders who want to do the right thing, changing [the] country’s policies and laws for a better future for our children,” Marape said.

Controlling PNG’s unicameral parliament is a perennial challenge for prime ministers. Governments are drawn from loose and broad coalitions, often reliant on personal alliances.
But these are prone to sudden rupture, and Marape was always vulnerable. His Pangu party controls only 23 seats in the 111-seat parliament, and he relied, as PNG prime ministers have before him, on the support of numerous other parties.



Namah, a former military officer and deputy PM with a long and colourful career in parliament, appears unlikely to be PNG’s next prime minister.

There are several candidates to succeed Marape, including East Sepik governor Allan Bird, the deputy leader of the People’s National Congress party, Richard Maru, and the foreign affairs minister, Pruaitch.
The former prime minister Peter O’Neill, who remains a prominent MP, is not considered a realistic chance to retake the premiership.

Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, is set to visit PNG next week. PNG is Australia’s nearest neighbour and its former territory, and Australia remains the country’s largest aid donor and most influential relationship.
Morrison would not be drawn on the upheaval in PNG on Friday.

“I’m not going to speculate on those events,” he said. “But it’s my intention to be with prime minister Marape next Wednesday as planned.”
___________________________________________________

Basically, the PNG law says that new governments have 18 month grace period before a motion of no-confidence (Think of it as impeachment of Prime Minister) can be tables in parliament. Now for the current gov that grace period ends at 1 December. Apparently, PNG political elite really want the current PM gone as soon as possible since they are already blocking his proposed budget and suspending parliament, basically freeze it until the likely no-confidence vote.

Current PM is actually one of the best PNG has had for decades, but he's been too reformist and has angered too many people. PNG is now going to be stuck with a deadlocked parliament, a blocked budget, and executive upheaval as it enters the next stage of corona crises.

There is some elements within oposition of current PNG government i am been wary, they are vocal in supporting pan Papua clause, just the like their ambition to create the richest black country is actually aimed to our provinces (Papua and west Papua). This Made me thinking, Joko Widodo and MoFA should take attention to what happened to Indonesian direct neighbour such as this and of needed to Made direct intervention to align their interest toward ours.

 

[Logam42]

There is some elements within oposition of current PNG government i am been wary, they are vocal in supporting pan Papua clause, just the like their ambition to create the richest black country is actually aimed to our provinces (Papua and west Papua). This Made me thinking, Joko Widodo and MoFA should take attention to what happened to Indonesian direct neighbour such as this and of needed to Made direct intervention to align their interest toward ours.

Very wise. Its the reason I care about them too. Much more so than Malaysia for example, which has never shown any interest at all. Foe example I really advocate that CSR of SOEs operating in PNG and Timor Leste be coordinated to serve national interests (Mandiri, BRI, & Telkom have permanent presence in TL, either directly or though subsidiaries)

Both PNG and Timor Leste should be given much more attention by the Indonesian Gov. Jokowi has shown more attention than previous administrations, but its still in the form of improving the condition of border areas. Hopefully the next step is projecting influence across the border.

 

[Daniel808]

Honestly, this is not a good news.

PNG Opposition camp known to be more vocal in their support toward (Papua and West Papua Province rebellion in Indonesia). And leading by their nationalistic leader like, Belden Namah.

A bad combination.

Meanwhile in US, with biden and his democrats camp winning the election.
US will be more sensitive with human rights issue

 

[nufix]

Honestly, this is not a good news.

PNG Opposition camp known to be more vocal in their support toward (Papua and West Papua Province rebellion in Indonesia). And leading by their nationalistic leader like, Belden Namah.

A bad combination.

Meanwhile in US, with biden and his democrats camp winning the election.
US will be more sensitive with human rights issue

PNG opposition may only be using wantok rethoric to garner support, but I doubt they will actually put that in motion once they are in power. Lets be realistic, PNG in its entirety cannot even provide basic necessities for their people in the capital, let alone spending little that they have to push through their rethoric.

Aussie can be quite backstabbing, but as long as China is around, they will be more careful not to add another country to oppose them openly.

Very wise. Its the reason I care about them too. Much more so than Malaysia for example, which has never shown any interest at all. Foe example I really advocate that CSR of SOEs operating in PNG and Timor Leste be coordinated to serve national interests (Mandiri, BRI, & Telkom have permanent presence in TL, either directly or though subsidiaries)

Both PNG and Timor Leste should be given much more attention by the Indonesian Gov. Jokowi has shown more attention than previous administrations, but its still in the form of improving the condition of border areas. Hopefully the next step is projecting influence across the border.

In some areas, they have. West Sepik region is the first that felt that. People there trade in rupiahs and actually have a bank account in the Indonesian side to make sure they can store and withdraw money quickly since the nearest bank and atm is hundreds of km away in the PNG side. The indonesian gov has also been helping supplying their border checkpost with water and electricity.

 

[Logam42]

Honestly, this is not a good news.

PNG Opposition camp known to be more vocal in their support toward (Papua and West Papua Province rebellion in Indonesia). And leading by their nationalistic leader like, Belden Namah.

A bad combination.

Meanwhile in US, with biden and his democrats camp winning the election.
US will be more sensitive with human rights issue

PNG opposition may only be using wantok rethoric to garner support, but I doubt they will actually put that in motion once they are in power. Lets be realistic, PNG in its entirety cannot even provide basic necessities for their people in the capital, let alone spending little that they have to push through their rethoric.

Aussie can be quite backstabbing, but as long as China is around, they will be more careful not to add another country to oppose them openly.

@Daniel808 basically what nufix said. PNG opposition can be pro separatist because they don't need to balance the budget nor need to worry about TNI making life difficult for them in the borders. The PNG Government relies on the financial & institutional support of Australia, and to a lesser but growing extent, on China and Indonesia.

China & Australia both have very good reasons to lean on PNG to be pro Indonesian Integration. Australia knows that Indonesia will HATE its guts forever if they allow PNG to be pro separatist, while China also has the added interest of preventing Indonesia from spitefully voicing support against their so called 'genocide' of Uighurs, especially since the US is much more confrontational now.

Furthermore, its an open secret that while Indonesia's border patrols are lacking, PNG's border security is pretty much non-existent on all but the most populated border areas. So a pissed off TNI can really ramp up gun smuggling and the like, which could trigger intensifying clan wars and instability in the PNG hinterlands.

My main reason of concern is that I prefer a PNG which is stable. For a long while the previous PNG Prime Minister, Peter O'Neill was a crooked politician that was driving PNG into becoming a failed state. He allowed mining giants get away with not only land grabs, but also grand scale tax evasion. He corrupted the police and even the statistics agency, literally falsifying economic growth. He also spent so much more than he actually had, to the point that even government employees (police and army included) were often paid late. So much government money went to paying foreign debt, basic services failed. Even the Capital ran out of malaria drugs at some point.

The current PM was a big breath of fresh air, and in the 17 months he's been in power, he's done a lot to fix things. He improved the budget balance, placed reformers in the police and army, and managed to trickle funds towards basic services. He even had much progress in forces big mining giants to renegotiate their one-sided agreements.

Suddenly Covid occurred and the budget balance was destroyed. Now, there's a real chance that PNG will go back towards failed state status, and that might mean an inability to prevent OPM guerillas from operating from their side of the border. Worse, it could mean that political and economic instability could occur in PNG which would also give OPM and other bad actors bigger freedom to base their anti-Indonesia operations in PNG.

 

[Daniel808]

@Logam42 Yes, I'm agree with what @nufix said, barking and action is different. The one that barking much sometimes silent when in power. But this new leader, Balden Namah is a pandora box. His stance much more nationalistic than current PM.

We need to keep eye on him, and if we can. Put an Economic pressure/influence to PNG, like Investment or even bribe.

@Logam42 Last time I know, there is an inland province of PNG that have bad relation with Port Moresby. I forgot the name. We can use that card, like you said support them and make a dirty war inside PNG.
But that a High Risk game, if western media know about that. It will be a big trouble.

Unless they do the same with Papua Province, I don't reccomend that