Pakistan's Situation and Probable Solutions

[Panther 57]

Forwarded as Received _______________________

Dear Friends

Here I have put together some random thoughts on the present security situation for anyone who is interested to read.

1. Pakistan is probably going through an alarmingly highest security threat-in-the-final-making to its existance. Some of the indicators are: Renewed US intimidation (F-16 Sales, Drone Attack and Do-more Syndrome etc); Strategic Cosiness with Iran and India etc.

2. Western forces are repeating the same old game plan. Earlier Saudi Arabia was the 'Favourite Pawn' now they encouraging Iran to take up that role. The objective is to continue accentuating *controlled-chaos and instability* in the Middle East, Afghanistan and by extension in Pakistan.

3. The emerging security challenges are grave if read with the internal security situation; poor and corrupt governance; and societal desensitisation and dysfunction.

4. In the next stand-off in the making, one could find Pakistan Military engaged in security quagmire on 5-fronts.

A. Indian Front,

B. Afghan Front,

C. Iranian Front

D. Internal Security Front (TTP, Diash, MQM, Sectarian outfits etc) and,

E. Corruption & Bad Governance Front (Accentuated by Nawaz Sharif, Zardari, Fazalur Rehman, Altaf, Asfand Yar etc nexus to maintain status quo, particularly in the aftermath of Panama Leak fiasco).

5. Front A, B &C can be operationalized only if desired effects and end-state have been created on Front D& E.

6. Time is running short for Pakistan. What is the solution. No perfect viable solution could be put in place even by the Army alone. May be an Army-Judiaciary-Beaurocracy backed Interim Government could retard the downward slide of Pakistan.

*A Way Forward*

7. The present political set up is a part of the problem. First essential objective should be to bring an end to present political set up in one way or the other before anything good can be done. In this way you could mitigate the security threat that can precipitate in Front-E and thus lead to "a strategic paralysis" at the national decision making level.

8. Some Random options to get rid of present political set up may be:

A. A petition is moved in the Supreme Court against the corrupt Government. Supreme Court restrains the Government to function and sets up a high-power commission under an an interim government (fully backed by Military) to clean up the mess, make needed constitutional amendments and seek fresh mandate through election (if warranted)

Or

B. The President of Pakistan is pursuaded to issue an *'Emergency Ordinance'*restraining NS Government on the allegation of massive corruption (It may be a Semi or Extra Constitutional Ordinance); and allowing setting up of an interim government and a high power commission. No worry even if the Ordanance is challenged in the Supreme Court.

OR

C. There is a successful *'No Confidence'* move against Nawaz Sharif in the Parliament. The new PM is pursuaded to dissolve Assemblies and go for a fresh election under a neutral set up and reformed electoral laws.

OR

D. A "Conditional Amenesty Deal" with Nawaz Sharif if he agrees to peacefully dissolves the Assemblies, sets up an intetim government and steps down from the seat of PM. * (It is the Recommended Option) *.

*Last Ditch Option*

9. If the present political set up could not be changed then the only last ditch option may be:

A. Army takes over. Declares holding of a "National Refrendum" instantly to seek public approval of take over by military (for 2-3 years) with a mandate: to clean up the country from corruption; all forms of terrorism; make constitutional amendments; and hold free and fair elections (Preferred: Presidential Form of Government).

B. In order to shut up and neutralise international opposition and condemnation, General Raheel should address the nation on TV/ Radio and ask people to come out in street in mass at a *specified time* to demonstrate Public approval of Army's take over, followed by holding National Refrendum in 30 days..

C. As an alternate measure, General Raheel may rather ask people who disapprove Army's take over to come out on the street. (There would be very few of the like of Aasma Jhangir ect).

*Note.*

This may be the last option for the Army to change the status quo. Otherwise nation should be ready for an "Iraq or Syria like or even worst situation" in next 1-2 years.

I sincerely pray I am totally wrong in my analysis.

Name withheld.......
Author holds a doctorate in Defence Strategy
@WebMaster @Spring Onion @fatman17 @Irfan Baloch @F.O.X @Zarvan @Rashid Mahmood

 

[Rashid Mahmood]

I would recommend the first option (A), but it's highly unlikely with the present CJP.
Otherwise the Last ditch Option will be the only option left.

 

[Panther 57]

I would recommend the first option (A), but it's highly unlikely with the present CJP.
Otherwise the Last ditch Option will be the only option left.

Seems strategic thinkers are now skeptical about Pakistan's situation and probable solutions. Current stance of COAS denies any takeover. Current political setup is birds of same feather. Judiciary is also not clean that is the reason they are also quite. Bureaucracy has proved that they are party to all loot and plunder. Hope we do not end up with the note author has given.

Ideal would be situation A, but as you said does not seem possible. Last Ditch Maneuver if not timely will bounce back badly.

 

[RAMPAGE]

I would recommend the first option (A), but it's highly unlikely with the present CJP.
Otherwise the Last ditch Option will be the only option left.

Seems strategic thinkers are now skeptical about Pakistan's situation and probable solutions. Current stance of COAS denies any takeover. Current political setup is birds of same feather. Judiciary is also not clean that is the reason they are also quite. Bureaucracy has proved that they are party to all loot and plunder. Hope we do not end up with the note author has given.

Ideal would be situation A, but as you said does not seem possible. Last Ditch Maneuver if not timely will bounce back badly.

I see no difference between A and the Last Ditch Option.

And there is going to be no Iraq or Syria like situation, We've got leverage. The author is an arsehole.

 

[Panther 57]

The author is an arsehole.

Such words are against the culture of our country and society. This forum consists of educated people, use of such language is highly condemned
@WebMaster .

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Forwarded as Received _______________________

Dear Friends

Here I have put together some random thoughts on the present security situation for anyone who is interested to read.

1. Pakistan is probably going through an alarmingly highest security threat-in-the-final-making to its existance. Some of the indicators are: Renewed US intimidation (F-16 Sales, Drone Attack and Do-more Syndrome etc); Strategic Cosiness with Iran and India etc.

2. Western forces are repeating the same old game plan. Earlier Saudi Arabia was the 'Favourite Pawn' now they encouraging Iran to take up that role. The objective is to continue accentuating *controlled-chaos and instability* in the Middle East, Afghanistan and by extension in Pakistan.

3. The emerging security challenges are grave if read with the internal security situation; poor and corrupt governance; and societal desensitisation and dysfunction.

4. In the next stand-off in the making, one could find Pakistan Military engaged in security quagmire on 5-fronts.

A. Indian Front,

B. Afghan Front,

C. Iranian Front

D. Internal Security Front (TTP, Diash, MQM, Sectarian outfits etc) and,

E. Corruption & Bad Governance Front (Accentuated by Nawaz Sharif, Zardari, Fazalur Rehman, Altaf, Asfand Yar etc nexus to maintain status quo, particularly in the aftermath of Panama Leak fiasco).

5. Front A, B &C can be operationalized only if desired effects and end-state have been created on Front D& E.

6. Time is running short for Pakistan. What is the solution. No perfect viable solution could be put in place even by the Army alone. May be an Army-Judiaciary-Beaurocracy backed Interim Government could retard the downward slide of Pakistan.

*A Way Forward*

7. The present political set up is a part of the problem. First essential objective should be to bring an end to present political set up in one way or the other before anything good can be done. In this way you could mitigate the security threat that can precipitate in Front-E and thus lead to "a strategic paralysis" at the national decision making level.

8. Some Random options to get rid of present political set up may be:

A. A petition is moved in the Supreme Court against the corrupt Government. Supreme Court restrains the Government to function and sets up a high-power commission under an an interim government (fully backed by Military) to clean up the mess, make needed constitutional amendments and seek fresh mandate through election (if warranted)

Or

B. The President of Pakistan is pursuaded to issue an *'Emergency Ordinance'*restraining NS Government on the allegation of massive corruption (It may be a Semi or Extra Constitutional Ordinance); and allowing setting up of an interim government and a high power commission. No worry even if the Ordanance is challenged in the Supreme Court.

OR

C. There is a successful *'No Confidence'* move against Nawaz Sharif in the Parliament. The new PM is pursuaded to dissolve Assemblies and go for a fresh election under a neutral set up and reformed electoral laws.

OR

D. A "Conditional Amenesty Deal" with Nawaz Sharif if he agrees to peacefully dissolves the Assemblies, sets up an intetim government and steps down from the seat of PM. * (It is the Recommended Option) *.

*Last Ditch Option*

9. If the present political set up could not be changed then the only last ditch option may be:

A. Army takes over. Declares holding of a "National Refrendum" instantly to seek public approval of take over by military (for 2-3 years) with a mandate: to clean up the country from corruption; all forms of terrorism; make constitutional amendments; and hold free and fair elections (Preferred: Presidential Form of Government).

B. In order to shut up and neutralise international opposition and condemnation, General Raheel should address the nation on TV/ Radio and ask people to come out in street in mass at a *specified time* to demonstrate Public approval of Army's take over, followed by holding National Refrendum in 30 days..

C. As an alternate measure, General Raheel may rather ask people who disapprove Army's take over to come out on the street. (There would be very few of the like of Aasma Jhangir ect).

*Note.*

This may be the last option for the Army to change the status quo. Otherwise nation should be ready for an "Iraq or Syria like or even worst situation" in next 1-2 years.

I sincerely pray I am totally wrong in my analysis.

Name withheld.......
Author holds a doctorate in Defence Strategy
@WebMaster @Spring Onion @fatman17 @Irfan Baloch @F.O.X @Zarvan @Rashid Mahmood

we are already facing a war on 3 fronts Indian forces on the borders, firing on the international borders, massing up troops etc. Northern Alliance from Afghanistan side is cooperating Indians in causing insurgencies inside Pakistan.

Army has no administrative role. its up to Supreme courts to decide if the current political setup is working and if current government still has its legitimacy.
our main fail is on diplomatic front. our current leadership is only busy in wealth accumulation and self preservation. there is no hope for change if the voter continues to elect same faces who show no desire to change their ways.

 

[Panther 57]

we are already facing a war on 3 fronts Indian forces on the borders, firing on the international borders, massing up troops etc. Northern Alliance from Afghanistan side is cooperating Indians in causing insurgencies inside Pakistan.

Army has no administrative role. its up to Supreme courts to decide if the current political setup is working and if current government still has its legitimacy.
our main fail is on diplomatic front. our current leadership is only busy in wealth accumulation and self preservation. there is no hope for change if the voter continues to elect same faces who show no desire to change their ways.

Rightly stated. but this political elite will keep getting themselves elected as long as this electoral system exists.
1. Contesting of election should be restricted to one seat only.
2. It has to be the same constituency where the candidate resides.
3. There should be a cap on holding Presidency, PM/CM House
4. Legislative assembly should do the job which name suggests
5. Development work has to be devolved to local government.
6. No clubbing of development expenses. Amount should be spent on the allocated area
7. President should have power to dissolve assembly of course on solid grounds. Law can be made to create check and balance
8. Bureaucracy needs operation clean up.

All this is not possible without the object which is commonly known as DANDA

 

[RAMPAGE]

Such words are against the culture of our country and society. This forum consists of educated people, use of such language is highly condemned
@WebMaster .

Dear Sir, I wonder why you took my words so very personally? I don't mind these negative ratings, Never have, But I feel that you've done an injustice by hiding my post.

Also, I think that the suggestions made in the article are illegitimate and extremely unethical. I think that it is the article that deserves a few negative ratings. President of Pakistan being persuaded? Bringing an end to the current political setup? By whom? On whose authority? Are their any laws in place that sanction the author's suggestions?

I think that it is extremely unbecoming of an educated ex-servicemen to endorse such suggestions. I think that by doing so, you're doing a disservice to your country and the Pakistan Armed Forces.

I think these suggestions are an insult to our men who have laid down their lives to protect the current setup. I think that these suggestions are an insult to our beloved General who has made it very clear that he has the utmost respect for the constitution (letter and spirit) and that he's here to do his job, That's all.

Know that it saddens me greatly to write such words for a man who has served our nation.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Dont be worried, Pak is a NUKE state and no one will ever dare attack you. Just show them your NUKE muscles.

 

[Panther 57]

Dear Sir, I wonder why you took my words so very personally? I don't mind these negative ratings, Never have, But I feel that you've done an injustice by hiding my post.

Also, I think that the suggestions made in the article are illegitimate and extremely unethical. I think that it is the article that deserves a few negative ratings. President of Pakistan being persuaded? Bringing an end to the current political setup? By whom? On whose authority? Are their any laws in place that sanction the author's suggestions?

I think that it is extremely unbecoming of an educated ex-servicemen so endorse such suggestions. I think that by doing so, you're doing a disservice to your country and the Pakistan Armed Forces.

I think these suggestions are an insult to our the men who have laid down their lives to protect the current setup. I think that these suggestions are an insult to our beloved General who has made it very clear that he has the utmost respect for the constitution (letter and spirit) and that he's here to do his job, That's all.

Know that it saddens me greatly to write such words for a man who has served our nation.

I will simply say that on this forum everyone has a right to put an opinion, article or thought for discussion. Writers hypothesis may be incorrect, but it does not give anyone right to use any type of language.

I have not removed your post. It is the admin which has done that. There are certain rules to be on the forum and I feel those should be in place and implemented. You may contact @WebMaster for your original post.

I have not taken the thing personally, but will surely side to protect respect of the author. By the I am not the author of this note, I have forwarded as I received it.

 

[volatile]

Congrats ! Blame it on Corruption especially political .They have their shares but what about Armed forces dictator ? 37 years precisely ,Why we have 5 fronts now because we insist on inviting Jihadis (Policy of Army) , Why Iran our enemy who is controlling our Foreign policy ? Why Afg seek your self the answer ,Low sales of F17 blame it on Civil ,Economy going down blame it on others ,Defence budget increased 100 Billion $ blame it on .So Blame Blame . First point to correction is realization that we are wrong . This article is based on hatred towards civil structure other than that nothing .If we want to see PAK out of trouble we need to start some thing like this .

1. Promote Merit
2. Right man for the Job
3. Foreign policy should be made thru consensus not in GHQ or In Drawing Room
4. Create a vision for Pak (What it was destined for)
5. Stop interfering in each other works
6. Stop commenting on Civil affairs as well as Armed forces should be under some command rather than Bunch of Generals
7. Stop Tweeting (by the way no tweet so far on Drone)
8. Stop wild west concept of tackling things
9. Stop promoting MQM type parties
10. From 1947 to ,1971 from Kargil to 9/11 to Energy shortfalls hand people irrespective of belongings .
11. Listen to each other and create harmony and equal opportunity for all

 

[DF@PDF]

Interesting article from good source. How much of this thinking is taken on board by the army leaders is the Real Question?

Forwarded as Received _______________________

Dear Friends

Here I have put together some random thoughts on the present security situation for anyone who is interested to read.

1. Pakistan is probably going through an alarmingly highest security threat-in-the-final-making to its existance. Some of the indicators are: Renewed US intimidation (F-16 Sales, Drone Attack and Do-more Syndrome etc); Strategic Cosiness with Iran and India etc.

2. Western forces are repeating the same old game plan. Earlier Saudi Arabia was the 'Favourite Pawn' now they encouraging Iran to take up that role. The objective is to continue accentuating *controlled-chaos and instability* in the Middle East, Afghanistan and by extension in Pakistan.

3. The emerging security challenges are grave if read with the internal security situation; poor and corrupt governance; and societal desensitisation and dysfunction.

4. In the next stand-off in the making, one could find Pakistan Military engaged in security quagmire on 5-fronts.

A. Indian Front,

B. Afghan Front,

C. Iranian Front

D. Internal Security Front (TTP, Diash, MQM, Sectarian outfits etc) and,

E. Corruption & Bad Governance Front (Accentuated by Nawaz Sharif, Zardari, Fazalur Rehman, Altaf, Asfand Yar etc nexus to maintain status quo, particularly in the aftermath of Panama Leak fiasco).

5. Front A, B &C can be operationalized only if desired effects and end-state have been created on Front D& E.

6. Time is running short for Pakistan. What is the solution. No perfect viable solution could be put in place even by the Army alone. May be an Army-Judiaciary-Beaurocracy backed Interim Government could retard the downward slide of Pakistan.

*A Way Forward*

7. The present political set up is a part of the problem. First essential objective should be to bring an end to present political set up in one way or the other before anything good can be done. In this way you could mitigate the security threat that can precipitate in Front-E and thus lead to "a strategic paralysis" at the national decision making level.

8. Some Random options to get rid of present political set up may be:

A. A petition is moved in the Supreme Court against the corrupt Government. Supreme Court restrains the Government to function and sets up a high-power commission under an an interim government (fully backed by Military) to clean up the mess, make needed constitutional amendments and seek fresh mandate through election (if warranted)

Or

B. The President of Pakistan is pursuaded to issue an *'Emergency Ordinance'*restraining NS Government on the allegation of massive corruption (It may be a Semi or Extra Constitutional Ordinance); and allowing setting up of an interim government and a high power commission. No worry even if the Ordanance is challenged in the Supreme Court.

OR

C. There is a successful *'No Confidence'* move against Nawaz Sharif in the Parliament. The new PM is pursuaded to dissolve Assemblies and go for a fresh election under a neutral set up and reformed electoral laws.

OR

D. A "Conditional Amenesty Deal" with Nawaz Sharif if he agrees to peacefully dissolves the Assemblies, sets up an intetim government and steps down from the seat of PM. * (It is the Recommended Option) *.

*Last Ditch Option*

9. If the present political set up could not be changed then the only last ditch option may be:

A. Army takes over. Declares holding of a "National Refrendum" instantly to seek public approval of take over by military (for 2-3 years) with a mandate: to clean up the country from corruption; all forms of terrorism; make constitutional amendments; and hold free and fair elections (Preferred: Presidential Form of Government).

B. In order to shut up and neutralise international opposition and condemnation, General Raheel should address the nation on TV/ Radio and ask people to come out in street in mass at a *specified time* to demonstrate Public approval of Army's take over, followed by holding National Refrendum in 30 days..

C. As an alternate measure, General Raheel may rather ask people who disapprove Army's take over to come out on the street. (There would be very few of the like of Aasma Jhangir ect).

*Note.*

This may be the last option for the Army to change the status quo. Otherwise nation should be ready for an "Iraq or Syria like or even worst situation" in next 1-2 years.

I sincerely pray I am totally wrong in my analysis.

Name withheld.......
Author holds a doctorate in Defence Strategy
@WebMaster @Spring Onion @fatman17 @Irfan Baloch @F.O.X @Zarvan @Rashid Mahmood

 

[Panther 57]

Interesting article from good source. How much of this thinking is taken on board by the army leaders is the Real Question?

In my opinion army may not be thinking on these lines, at least from now.

 

[Panther 57]

They have their shares but what about Armed forces dictator ? 37 years precisely ,

Army is not absolved of any damages they inflicted on the country. However, whenever a government is judged it is evaluated as a package. Economy plays vital role for any nation. In my opinion economy has been better in armed forces tenure against civilian rule. Zia's tenure saw lowest GDP growth, which was higher then any civilian government. By the principle of induction and deduction by Bertrand Russell, military rule has been better in Pakistan. This does not mean that I am not for democracy but yes I am definitely against democrazy. Nevertheless, if you probe into each country's development and growth, it will not be wrong to say that it has been because of some sort of dictatorship. Pure democracy has always created chaos.

Why we have 5 fronts now because we insist on inviting Jihadis (Policy of Army)

It is a misconception that army invites Jihadis. That was the era of Afghan invasion which is over long ago. In that context also, Jihadis were created by those who speak against the most. This has been accepted publicly by Hillary Clinton.

Why Iran our enemy who is controlling our Foreign policy ?

No country is our enemy, but each country is their own friend, we are our own enemies.

Why Afg seek your self the answer ,Low sales of F17 blame it on Civil ,Economy going down blame it on others

Arms export is large enough to offset defence budget.

Defence budget increased 100 Billion $ blame it on .

The misconception of defence budget is that it goes into pockets of armed forces. I would recommend googling for a show by Mubashir Lucman who explained this in great detail.

Seems your observation and recommendations are mainly based on Hamid Mir and Marvi Simrand type journalist and you own research is missing.

1. Promote Merit

No doubt, but who is violating this principle armed forces or the politicians. In armed forces their system is working, it is the political induction in PIA, LESCO, Steel mill, police, bureaucracy, education, etc etc which has brought these institution to the brink of disaster.

3. Foreign policy should be made thru consensus not in GHQ or In Drawing Room

Whose consensus? It has been two months these political parties have not been able to reach a consensus on Panama Leaks. They can reach consensus on their personal benefits, like life time benefits for MPAs & MNAs. They can reach the consensus on increasing pays of MNAs and MPAs 10 times. But they cannot reach a consensus on foreign policy. Because each has different vested interest. If these policies are made on the basis of national interest. It will automatically align itself with what Armed Forces desire.

By the way you must google for the thesis written by armed forces personnel, during the Staff Courses, on international relations, foreign policy, etc. You will be able to compare their competence against politicians, who some time do not know spelling of foreign policy.

I was watching a tv show once where the anchor asked Farid Paracha of JI, that politicians talk of billions in budget can you tell me how many zeros are there in a billion. Mr Paracha was speechless.

4. Create a vision for Pak (What it was destined for)

Pakistan was envisaged as a nation second to none. But unfortunately beggars cannot carve their own destiny. Our political leadership has begged so much that we as a nation have lost self respect, self esteem and up righteousness

5. Stop interfering in each other works

Not interfering in each others work is the ideal thing, provided objective is same. Best example is there was no interference in anyone work in AZ's tenure. Objective was same i..e make money.

. Stop commenting on Civil affairs as well as Armed forces should be under some command rather than Bunch of General

My dear respect is not demanded but commanded through self example and conduct. Same goes for assuming the command. Person has to be competent enough to assume command. Look at the history of world, mutiny and revolt originated against a weak commander. If political leadership is competent enough, working in national interest and spotless; there will never be a takeover.

9. Stop promoting MQM type parties

Who is promoting them? the same people who called them terrorist. all the political parties declared them terrorist and did not invite them in their london conference. And now what they have been partners to PMLN, PPP, JI, JUI and even at some places TI.

10. From 1947 to ,1971 from Kargil to 9/11 to Energy shortfalls hand people irrespective of belongings .

Kh Asif recently tweeted that energy requirement is aroun 19K and production is 16K. Why is he not talking about installed capacity. In Musharaf's days Pakistan had reached install capacity of 20K MW. More then our todays requirement.

11. Listen to each other and create harmony and equal opportunity for all

Not our cup of tea.

 

[Zaneesh852]

we are already facing a war on 3 fronts Indian forces on the borders, firing on the international borders, massing up troops etc. Northern Alliance from Afghanistan side is cooperating Indians in causing insurgencies inside Pakistan.

Army has no administrative role. its up to Supreme courts to decide if the current political setup is working and if current government still has its legitimacy.
our main fail is on diplomatic front. our current leadership is only busy in wealth accumulation and self preservation. there is no hope for change if the voter continues to elect same faces who show no desire to change their ways.

We have created a war on three fronts. We think hostilities with the three neighbours are necessary for our national interests. So don't expect any peace dividends with fire all around Pakistan's borders. I don't know why people are bitching on this thread when the problems are nothing but the karma.