Pakistan’s growth rate goes down to 3.9% this year, says ADB

[ziaulislam]

For the first 9 months we have missed revenue collections by 300-400 billions and now the projected fiscal deficit is 7.5%

Based on??
Do you even know maths?

if 10 months short fall is just 400b that isnt even 1% of GDP while historically collection always over shoot in last 3 months.

Even with extra war expenditures of 50b i bet fiscal deficit will stay at 5.5-5.8%

Assuming supreme court doesnt allow mobile tax and GIDS doesn't materialize

Which still much mich better than 6.6% with all refunds being released and 20% import compression
Hell even 6% will be Much much better
Giving oil price relief was a blunder from PTI

 

[Tiger Awan]

Based on??
Do you even know maths?

ummmmmm
This is the projection in January. 6% fiscal deficit
https://nation.com.pk/07-Jan-2019/p...-to-clock-in-at-6-for-fy18-19-fitch-solutions
Now FBR is coming with more shambolic numbers. 317 Billion less than target.
https://fp.brecorder.com/2019/03/20190331459972/

Whatever Maths i "know" says fiscal deficit is no way near 5%. 7-7.5% is the best we can hope for

 

[AZ1]

For the first 9 months we have missed revenue collections by 300-400 billions and now the projected fiscal deficit is 7.5%

List of loans taken by PML-N since May 2013
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/list-of-loans-taken-by-pml-n-since-may-2013.312184/


How you are thinking to return these money which was taken as loan by PMLN? bas Nawaz ko kuch na kaho wo tou past tha na

 

[Tiger Awan]

List of loans taken by PML-N since May 2013
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/list-of-loans-taken-by-pml-n-since-may-2013.312184/


How you are thinking to return these money which was taken as loan by PMLN? bas Nawaz ko kuch na kaho wo tou past tha na

Missing targets for revenue collection is surely not the way to return these loan, is it ???

 

[N.Siddiqui]

GDP is not as significant a number as people tend to believe. GDP can be raised from borrowed money but if that GDP is not coming from sufficient investment into development projects, the growth is not sustainable and this is what is happening.

With no sufficient capacity building and economic activity created through growth (and not development) oriented projects, the economy needs a serious adjustment now.

 

[ziaulislam]

ummmmmm
This is the projection in January. 6% fiscal deficit
https://nation.com.pk/07-Jan-2019/p...-to-clock-in-at-6-for-fy18-19-fitch-solutions
Now FBR is coming with more shambolic numbers. 317 Billion less than target.
https://fp.brecorder.com/2019/03/20190331459972/

Whatever Maths i "know" says fiscal deficit is no way near 5%. 7-7.5% is the best we can hope for

Read the orginal fitch solution report here and tell me where they said Pakistan will cross 7.5%

They and sbp have said they expect pakistan to breach 4.9% but decrease it still by 1% that fits with current short fall of around 300 b rupees
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/coun...kistan-what-expect-next-imf-bailout-package-2

Since long i dont trust Pakistani media as they notorious for fake news

For reference this is what they have said

Missing targets for revenue collection is surely not the way to return these loan, is it ???

Last 10 years every govt has missed tragets...reason why is important

PS۔۔
IF you are die hard PMLN supporter than stop..dont reply, i respect your ideas and like indians its useless to argue with you

 

[Chhatrapati]

You steal the words from my mouth. Delhi people cheated by kejariwal same way by making big promises. Delhi paid the price. It is not easy to be a politician. Some time people trust those people who makes big promises because they are disappointed. Later on they pay the price for their mistakes. I knew very well what is going to happen. Believe me, people will remember Nawaz or even Zardari and Musharraf.

But I heard, Delhi now have hospitals accessible for common man and the same case for Public schools which are good.

At topic.
It is too early to blame IK and PTI on anything, this is a new government who haven't completed even a year. They didn't inherit a wealthy Pakistan from the previous government. It had weak fiscal numbers who was already in an unhealthy state along with an artificially propped up currency.

 

[Solomon2]

...how does adb predict water shortages -

Regardless of how the adb does that, the water shortages are evident every day in Pakistan. Not just in rural areas but in the cities - don't many Pakistanis rely upon private water delivery? So the ADB is highlighting the misallocation of public infrastructure capital and associated management, as a lack of water is a drag on Pakistani productivity: it's not just that water costs money but that the time citizens spend obtaining water is time away from productive activities.

 

[Tiger Awan]

Read the orginal fitch solution report here and tell me where they said Pakistan will cross 7.5%

They and sbp have said they expect pakistan to breach 4.9% but decrease it still by 1% that fits with current short fall of around 300 b rupees
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/coun...kistan-what-expect-next-imf-bailout-package-2

Since long i dont trust Pakistani media as they notorious for fake news

For reference this is what they have said

Last 10 years every govt has missed tragets...reason why is important

PS۔۔
IF you are die hard PMLN supporter than stop..dont reply, i respect your ideas and like indians its useless to argue with you

I gave Fitch solution projection from January and said it was 6% in January. Since then things have gotten worse not better. Anyways the fiscal year is about to end, soon we will see real numbers

Regarding me being supporter of Pmln ..... does it matter ?? I have not once argued with you on things you are putting blame on Pmln. My only crime is to point out things are getting worse. All numbers are worse than a year ago (or in some case worse 5 years). It may take time for Pti to get things on track but at least they could have kept the pace of previous few years. Pevious govt never had a year where tax revenues growth was less than 10% but this year we are lingering at 2%. They are doing no corruption, the PM is not a thief and ppl can now pay taxes knowing their tax money will not be stolen or wasted. Foreign investment should increase since they have confidence in dream team of Mr Khan etc etc etc. After all this is what Pti promised.

 

[ziaulislam]

I gave Fitch solution projection from January and said it was 6% in January. Since then things have gotten worse not better. Anyways the fiscal year is about to end, soon we will see real numbers

Regarding me being supporter of Pmln ..... does it matter ?? I have not once argued with you on things you are putting blame on Pmln. My only crime is to point out things are getting worse. All numbers are worse than a year ago (or in some case worse 5 years). It may take time for Pti to get things on track but at least they could have kept the pace of previous few years. Pevious govt never had a year where tax revenues growth was less than 10% but this year we are lingering at 2%. They are doing no corruption, the PM is not a thief and ppl can now pay taxes knowing their tax money will not be stolen or wasted. Foreign investment should increase since they have confidence in dream team of Mr Khan etc etc etc. After all this is what Pti promised.

I went through whole fitch catalog..show me where ?

Its weird that your saying that "ahmad says jamal told me" and i am telling you here is jamal standing he never said that!!!

HERE THE JANUARY ARTICLE WHERE DOES FITCH SAYS THIS
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/external-woes-no-sign-ending-yet-08-01-2019

PS
Even if fiscal deficit does hit 6% which it wont it still will be good achievement in setting of curtailing fiscal deficit remeber the reason why we worry about fiscal deficit is that it stimulates current account deficit !!!.(as state bank/printing notes will be source of borrowing)

The reason why market analyst were saying govt should allow fiscal deficit to run high just worry about CAD

---------
On only 3% growth in tax revenues
This is real test of whether i am wasting time with you or not

40% tax REVEUES ARE FROM IMPORTS AND IMPORTS DROPPED BY 20%

now how difficult is this to understand ????

GDP is not as significant a number as people tend to believe. GDP can be raised from borrowed money but if that GDP is not coming from sufficient investment into development projects, the growth is not sustainable and this is what is happening.

With no sufficient capacity building and economic activity created through growth (and not development) oriented projects, the economy needs a serious adjustment now.

Exactly ...if you take debt and grow gdp its short term

Simple analogy is that you print money and hand it over you will see growth as money was produced but within days when that money circulate you will see inflation as it wasnt real money

 

[Gorgin Khan]

40% tax REVEUES ARE FROM IMPORTS AND IMPORTS DROPPED BY 20%

now how difficult is this to understand ????

You are right but there is another perspective i.e even though imports dropped 20% but the custom value at which goods are evaluated in the ports or dry ports has increased significantly.

So a drop in imports does not necessarily mean that the revenues will also drop and thats why the increase in the revenues is recorded at 3 %.

 

[ziaulislam]

You are right but there is another perspective i.e even though imports dropped 20% but the custom value at which goods are evaluated in the ports or dry ports has increased significantly.

So a drop in imports does not necessarily mean that the revenues will also drop .

This can be calculated ..i didnt want to go in details
The reason why drop wasnt 20-25% instead tax revnues still showed growth of 3%

The other reasons are
1. Oil GST relief of 100b rupees
2. Abolishment of withholding taxes about 70b rupees
3. 100b july to August tax relief by PMLN budget
4. Lack of any amnesty scheme and large amount of refund release of last year collection !
Adjusted for above tax revnues showed bettee performance than last year yet DISPAPOINTING AS DIRECT TAXATION INCREASE WAS MODEST

 

[Tiger Awan]

I went through whole fitch catalog..show me where ?

Its weird that your saying that "ahmad says jamal told me" and i am telling you here is jamal standing he never said that!!!

HERE THE JANUARY ARTICLE WHERE DOES FITCH SAYS THIS
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk-sovereigns/external-woes-no-sign-ending-yet-08-01-2019

PS
Even if fiscal deficit does hit 6% which it wont it still will be good achievement in setting of curtailing fiscal deficit remeber the reason why we worry about fiscal deficit is that it stimulates current account deficit !!!.(as state bank/printing notes will be source of borrowing)

The reason why market analyst were saying govt should allow fiscal deficit to run high just worry about CAD

---------
On only 3% growth in tax revenues
This is real test of whether i am wasting time with you or not

40% tax REVEUES ARE FROM IMPORTS AND IMPORTS DROPPED BY 20%

now how difficult is this to understand ????


Exactly ...if you take debt and grow gdp its short term

Simple analogy is that you print money and hand it over you will see growth as money was produced but within days when that money circulate you will see inflation as it wasnt real money

You are linking to a Jan 8 report, mine link was mentioning report on Jan 7. A simple google search can answer any query. Such a petty thing to argue on

You are right but there is another perspective i.e even though imports dropped 20% but the custom value at which goods are evaluated in the ports or dry ports has increased significantly.

So a drop in imports does not necessarily mean that the revenues will also drop and thats why the increase in the revenues is recorded at 3 %.

This and increase in exports were the things Pti promised as a result of currency depreciation. None achieved

This can be calculated ..i didnt want to go in details
The reason why drop wasnt 20-25% instead tax revnues still showed growth of 3%

The other reasons are
1. Oil GST relief of 100b rupees
2. Abolishment of withholding taxes about 70b rupees
3. 100b july to August tax relief by PMLN budget
4. Lack of any amnesty scheme and large amount of refund release of last year collection !
Adjusted for above tax revnues showed bettee performance than last year yet DISPAPOINTING AS DIRECT TAXATION INCREASE WAS MODEST

Now only if they had 2 mini budgets to correct the wrongs ........

 

[ziaulislam]

You are linking to a Jan 8 report, mine link was mentioning report on Jan 7. A simple google search can answer any query. Such a petty thing to argue on


This and increase in exports were the things Pti promised as a result of currency depreciation. None achieved



Now only if they had 2 mini budgets to correct the wrongs ........

You are doing google search/quoting a Pakistani i am quoting fitch directly !!! Find another source!

Sorry to dispoint you but there is no harry potter that will wave a wand and you will have increase exports.

Not you because you are clearly a matwala but other should read about "J theory" how devaluation actually initially has negative impaxt on exports and actual effect is lagged by 12-18 months.

Also devaluation Is not done for exports its done for correction

As i clearly said fitch never said thag i proved it...and you are unable to answer that question on which whole of your argument stands..remember even if fitch says its just an opinion but they never said that

--+
On mini budget your ishaq dar use to by pass the cabinet for minibudget and supplementry grants as mein sahab had hemorrhoids and couldn't attend cabinet meetings

 

[God Parshuram]

But I heard, Delhi now have hospitals accessible for common man and the same case for Public schools which are good.

A huge amount of central government's money is spent in Delhi. Central government has launched a very big scheme of giving medical facilities to half of India's population. Idiot Kejriwal neither attends assembly or office. He hardly works 2 or 3 days in a month. Modi on other hand hashnot taken a single leave in 5 years. This Joker Kejriwal watches new movie in first show and writes review on movie. He is unable to handle administration of Delhi and blames BJP for each and every of his failure.

Regarding, I Imran Khan, I have seen him playing cricket since my childhood so I like him. However, being a cricketer and being a politician is totally different ball game. I don't think he has developed as a politician. I strongly believe that Nawaz Sharif is the best option Pakistan ever had but in democracy people will is supreme. I wish Pakistan best of luck in their endeavour to boost its economy.