Pakistan's GDP growth rate is even higher than that of China: Harvard study

[Baby Leone]

Pakistan’s predicted annual growth rate over the next 10 years is nearly 6 per cent, according to the revised growth projections presented by researchers at the Centre for International Development (CID) at the Harvard University.

This is a one-point GDP increase as in the CID’s earlier projections, Pakistan GDP was set to grow at 5 per cent by 2025.

Although China’s huge economy (current GDP at $12 trillion) cannot be compared with that of Pakistan (current GDP at $300 billion), Pakistan’s 5.97 per cent growth rate is above that of China, which is set to grow by 4.41 per cent.

Pakistan’s 5.97 per cent growth rate is above China, which is set to grow by 4.41 per cent. PHOTO: THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2015. HARVARD CID

Led by Harvard Kennedy School, the research is called ‘The Atlas of Economic Complexity’.

The CID’s growth projections are based on the measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.

According to the Harvard study, the economic complexity not only describes why countries are rich or poor today, but can also predict future growth — about five times more accurately than the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index.

Pakistan’s neighbour India, on the other hand, is predicted to grow by 7.72 per cent, the world’s highest. The CID believes that the economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighbouring India and it is likely to stay there over the coming decade.

‘Pakistan’s GDP growth expected to hit 9-year high in current fiscal year’

Except for India, Pakistan will beat all Asian economies in GDP growth. These also include giant Muslim economies.

Here are some regional countries (and their GDP growth) Pakistan will be ahead of:

Muslim and South Asian countries:

Indonesia 5.82 per cent

Turkey 5.64 per cent

Malaysia 4.82 per cent

Sri Lanka 3.77 per cent

Saudi Arabia 3.17 per cent

Bangladesh 2.82 per cent

UAE 2.41 per cent

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries:

Tajikistan 3.61 per cent

Uzbekistan 3.32 per cent

Kazakhstan 2.65 per cent

Kyrgyzstan 5.77 per cent

Russia 2.60 per cent

According to the Harvard study, the central reason for income differences is know-how. Poor countries produce few goods that many countries can make because of the lack of know-how, while rich countries produce a greater diversity of goods, including products that few other countries can make.

Harvard’s leading research hub uses this fact to measure the amount of the know-how that is held in each economy.

A major trend that emerges from Harvard’s report is that the growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly.

Pakistan’s GDP growth expected at 4.9%: Moody’s

In addition to Pakistan, the CID projections are also optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam. it also notes that economies based on commodity output face slower growth rates as commodity prices continue to remain under pressure.

With special economic zones (SEZs) being built under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, it is an opportunity for Pakistan to move away from commodity output by producing value-added goods in joint ventures with Chinese firms and increase its exports. This way, Pakistan can have even faster income growth.

The Harvard growth projections are in line with other short, medium and long-term GDP growth forecasts for Pakistan.

HSBC: 5 per cent leading to 2050

IMF: 5.5 per cent leading to 2020

The World Bank: 5.8 per cent leading to 2019

The Economist: 5.7 per cent in 2017

In a bid to materialise this growth projection, what needs to be chalked out is a multi-pronged strategy. Pakistan needs to diversify its product capabilities. With likely new FDI inflows, Pakistani firms can go into producing value added goods both for domestic consumption as well as exports.

The firms, currently content with domestic sales turnover, need to introduce some percentage of exports to their strategic plans. Similarly, Pakistan’s agriculture sector needs to address its lack of sophistication and crop and distribution losses. The cumulative effect of even modest steps will help increase our GDP growth.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1452332/pakistans-gdp-growth-rate-even-higher-china-harvard-study/

 

[Baby Leone]

Congrats to Pakistan & India too,

I think China is in different league now and her competition is not with any of South Asian country...
BTW highest growth are for mostly Poor African countries which has more room for growth.

BTW as per Bangladeshis they are already ahead of poor Pakistan and are set to defeat all south asia on economic front then why Harvard is not even talking about them?
Hasina is seriously playing with Bangladeshis she said Bangladesh is already growing at 7% and is set to grow more then 8% avg in the coming decade but its opposite.

 

[Jinn Baba]

China is a MASSIVE economy that cannot keep growing at the higher rates. Even 4-5% growth for them is impressive.

India is also doing brilliantly at 7+% growth and moving towards becoming a developed economy.

Pakistan on the other hand needs to be growing at around 8-10% for us to expect any significant change over the next decade. Stability, law and order and good policies are needed for us to come close to thag figure; but sadly, that may be too much to ask at the moment

 

[Baby Leone]

still Pakistan is on Right direction stable democracy and consistent growth is what we see from last few years.

 

[Banglar Bir]

Congratulations to our Pakistani brothers, just ensure that all preventive measures are implemented to halt any decline in the coming years.

 

[dez01]

Congratulations.

 

[ito]

Congrats to Pakistan & India too,

I think China is in different league now and her competition is not with any of South Asian country...
BTW highest growth are for mostly Poor African countries which has more room for growth.

BTW as per Bangladeshis they are already ahead of poor Pakistan and are set to defeat all south asia on economic front then why Harvard is not even talking about them?
Hasina is seriously playing with Bangladeshis she said Bangladesh is already growing at 7% and is set to grow more then 8% avg in the coming decade but its opposite.

What is there to congratulate?, They are just projections and not performances.

 

[Turingsage]

What is there to congratulate?, They are just projections and not performances.

Indeed, and its best to ACTUALLY read the full report rather than picking out a raisin from a fruit loaf

New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China’s Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India

June 28, 2017

Cambridge, Massachusetts – The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighboring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade, according to new growth projections presented by researchers at the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID). Growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly. The projections are optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam. The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.

In examining the latest 2015 global trade data, CID researchers find a clear turn in trade winds, as 2015 marks the first year for which world exports have fallen since the 2009 global financial crisis. This time around, the decline in trade was driven largely by the fall in oil prices. High oil prices had driven a decade of rapid growth in oil economies, outpacing expectations. Since the decline in oil prices in mid 2014, growth in oil economies ground to a halt, where it is likely to stay, according to the projections, given little progress on diversification and complexity.

“The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years,” said Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), and the lead researcher of The Atlas of Economic Complexity.

The projections warn of a continued slowdown in global growth over the coming decade. India and Uganda top the list of the fastest growing economies to 2025, at 7.7 percent annually, but for different reasons. Uganda joins three other East African countries in the top 10 fastest growing countries, though a significant fraction of that growth is due to rapid population growth. On a per capita basis, Uganda is the only East African country that remains in the top 10 in the growth projections, though at 4.5 percent annually its prospects are more modest. On the other hand, the researchers attribute India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Predicted Annual Growth Rate to 2025
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
The new 2015 data reveal a decline in China’s exports. China’s economic complexity ranking also falls four spots for the first time since the global financial crisis. China’s rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth. The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 percent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Growth By Region
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
The researchers place the diversity of tacit productive knowledge—or knowhow—that a society has at the heart of the economic growth story. A central stylized fact of world income differences is that poor countries produce few goods that many countries can make, while rich countries produce a great diversity of goods, including products that few other countries can make. The team uses this fact to measure the amount of knowhow that is held in each economy. “Economic complexity not only describes why countries are rich or poor today, but also can predict future growth, about five times more accurately than the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index,” said Sebastian Bustos, a research fellow at CID.

New Economic Complexity Index Rankings
CID also released new country rankings of the 2015 Economic Complexity Index(ECI), the measure that forms the basis for much of the growth projections. The ECI finds the most complex countries in the world, as measured by the average complexity of their export basket, remain Japan, Switzerland, Germany, South Korea, and Austria. Of the 40 most complex countries, the biggest risers in the rankings for the decade ending in 2015 have been the Philippines (ECI rank: up 28 positions to rank 32nd globally), Thailand (+11 to 25th), China (+10 to 23rd), Lithuania (+9 to 30th), and South Korea (+8 to 4th). Conversely, the biggest losers have been Canada (-9 to 33rd), Serbia, Belarus, Spain (-6 to 29th), and France (-6 to 16th).

The countries that show the fastest declines in the complexity rankings in the decade ending in 2015 nearly all have had policy regimes that have been adversarial to the accumulation of productive knowhow, with the largest declines in Cuba (-50), Venezuela (-44), Zimbabwe (-23), Tajikistan (-22), Libya (-22), and Argentina (-18). Globally, the fastest risers in complexity in 2015 have been the Philippines, Malawi (+26 to 94th), Uganda (+24 to 77th), Vietnam (+24 to 64th), and Cambodia (+16 to 88th).

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Most and Least Complex Countries

Click to enlarge left or right image.
Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Largest Wins and Losses

Click to enlarge left or right image.
The growth projections highlight that economic growth fails to follow one easy pattern or rule system. The countries that are expected to be the fastest growing – India, Turkey, Indonesia, Uganda, and Bulgaria – are diverse in all political, institutional, geographic and demographic dimensions. “What they share is a focus on expanding the capabilities of their workforce that leaves them well positioned to diversify into new products, and products of increasingly greater complexity,” said Timothy Cheston, a research fellow at CID.

The projections divide global countries into three basic categories: those countries with too few productive capabilities to easily diversify into related products, including Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Guinea; those countries which have enough capabilities that make diversification and growth easier, which include India, Indonesia, and Turkey; and those advanced countries – such as Japan, Germany, and the United States – that already produce nearly all existing products, so that progress will require pushing the world’s technological frontier by inventing new products, a process that implies slower growth.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Economic Complexity Ranking Changes
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
Click here to view the visualization full-screen.
The economic complexity growth projections differ from those of the IMF and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Relative to EIU predictions, CID researchers are less optimistic about a set of countries that include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Cuba. Conversely, CID researchers have greater optimism for the growth prospects of Uganda, Guatemala, Mexico, Tanzania, and Brazil.

The researchers emphasize that the benefit of these medium-term projections is that nothing is set in stone, but there are many steps policymakers, investors, and business leaders can take to enter more complex production to realize faster growth.

About the Center for International Development
The Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty. CID is Harvard’s leading research hub focusing on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared, and sustainable prosperity in developing countries. Our ongoing mission is to revolutionize the world of development practice.

Contact: Chuck McKenney

Email: chuck_mckenney@hks.harvard.edu

Phone: (617) 495-4112

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/growth-predictions/

 

[ito]

Indeed, and its best to ACTUALLY read the full report rather than picking out a raisin from a fruit loaf

New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China’s Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India

June 28, 2017

Cambridge, Massachusetts – The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighboring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade, according to new growth projections presented by researchers at the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID). Growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly. The projections are optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam. The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.

In examining the latest 2015 global trade data, CID researchers find a clear turn in trade winds, as 2015 marks the first year for which world exports have fallen since the 2009 global financial crisis. This time around, the decline in trade was driven largely by the fall in oil prices. High oil prices had driven a decade of rapid growth in oil economies, outpacing expectations. Since the decline in oil prices in mid 2014, growth in oil economies ground to a halt, where it is likely to stay, according to the projections, given little progress on diversification and complexity.

“The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years,” said Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), and the lead researcher of The Atlas of Economic Complexity.

The projections warn of a continued slowdown in global growth over the coming decade. India and Uganda top the list of the fastest growing economies to 2025, at 7.7 percent annually, but for different reasons. Uganda joins three other East African countries in the top 10 fastest growing countries, though a significant fraction of that growth is due to rapid population growth. On a per capita basis, Uganda is the only East African country that remains in the top 10 in the growth projections, though at 4.5 percent annually its prospects are more modest. On the other hand, the researchers attribute India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Predicted Annual Growth Rate to 2025
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
The new 2015 data reveal a decline in China’s exports. China’s economic complexity ranking also falls four spots for the first time since the global financial crisis. China’s rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth. The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 percent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Growth By Region
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
The researchers place the diversity of tacit productive knowledge—or knowhow—that a society has at the heart of the economic growth story. A central stylized fact of world income differences is that poor countries produce few goods that many countries can make, while rich countries produce a great diversity of goods, including products that few other countries can make. The team uses this fact to measure the amount of knowhow that is held in each economy. “Economic complexity not only describes why countries are rich or poor today, but also can predict future growth, about five times more accurately than the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index,” said Sebastian Bustos, a research fellow at CID.

New Economic Complexity Index Rankings
CID also released new country rankings of the 2015 Economic Complexity Index(ECI), the measure that forms the basis for much of the growth projections. The ECI finds the most complex countries in the world, as measured by the average complexity of their export basket, remain Japan, Switzerland, Germany, South Korea, and Austria. Of the 40 most complex countries, the biggest risers in the rankings for the decade ending in 2015 have been the Philippines (ECI rank: up 28 positions to rank 32nd globally), Thailand (+11 to 25th), China (+10 to 23rd), Lithuania (+9 to 30th), and South Korea (+8 to 4th). Conversely, the biggest losers have been Canada (-9 to 33rd), Serbia, Belarus, Spain (-6 to 29th), and France (-6 to 16th).

The countries that show the fastest declines in the complexity rankings in the decade ending in 2015 nearly all have had policy regimes that have been adversarial to the accumulation of productive knowhow, with the largest declines in Cuba (-50), Venezuela (-44), Zimbabwe (-23), Tajikistan (-22), Libya (-22), and Argentina (-18). Globally, the fastest risers in complexity in 2015 have been the Philippines, Malawi (+26 to 94th), Uganda (+24 to 77th), Vietnam (+24 to 64th), and Cambodia (+16 to 88th).

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Most and Least Complex Countries

Click to enlarge left or right image.
Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Largest Wins and Losses

Click to enlarge left or right image.
The growth projections highlight that economic growth fails to follow one easy pattern or rule system. The countries that are expected to be the fastest growing – India, Turkey, Indonesia, Uganda, and Bulgaria – are diverse in all political, institutional, geographic and demographic dimensions. “What they share is a focus on expanding the capabilities of their workforce that leaves them well positioned to diversify into new products, and products of increasingly greater complexity,” said Timothy Cheston, a research fellow at CID.

The projections divide global countries into three basic categories: those countries with too few productive capabilities to easily diversify into related products, including Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Guinea; those countries which have enough capabilities that make diversification and growth easier, which include India, Indonesia, and Turkey; and those advanced countries – such as Japan, Germany, and the United States – that already produce nearly all existing products, so that progress will require pushing the world’s technological frontier by inventing new products, a process that implies slower growth.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Economic Complexity Ranking Changes
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
Click here to view the visualization full-screen.
The economic complexity growth projections differ from those of the IMF and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Relative to EIU predictions, CID researchers are less optimistic about a set of countries that include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Cuba. Conversely, CID researchers have greater optimism for the growth prospects of Uganda, Guatemala, Mexico, Tanzania, and Brazil.

The researchers emphasize that the benefit of these medium-term projections is that nothing is set in stone, but there are many steps policymakers, investors, and business leaders can take to enter more complex production to realize faster growth.

About the Center for International Development
The Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty. CID is Harvard’s leading research hub focusing on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared, and sustainable prosperity in developing countries. Our ongoing mission is to revolutionize the world of development practice.

Contact: Chuck McKenney

Email: chuck_mckenney@hks.harvard.edu

Phone: (617) 495-4112

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/growth-predictions/

Good to know that India is becoming economic complex country...

 

[Flash_Ninja]

Wait Bangladesh's growth is 2.8%? Can anyone eleborate on this?

And Chinas growth even if it is 4% is not bad, they would still be adding something like double Pakistan's GDP every year, and they have the reserves and stability to weather any kind of economic shocks that hit them.

 

[maximuswarrior]

Congratulations to our Pakistani brothers, just ensure that all preventive measures are implemented to halt any decline in the coming years.

These figures all tell one part of the story. Unless the poor masses aren't given equal opportunities the gains don't amount to much. China has created mass job opportunities for its masses. That is where China wins it hands down. Once the wealth trickles down to the middle and lower class a country truly grows. If the wealth remains concentrated for the elite there are no real gains.

All the South Asian countries mentioned in the report lack severely in this regard.

Don't look at GDP when you have to gauge economic success of a country. Just look at the middle and lower class. If they are doing fine everything else is fine too.

 

[djsjs]

the one belt one road is to help member countries improve infrastructure and economy.we have tech,capacity.our companies already build roads railways buildings in many countries

 

[fallstuff]

Indeed, and its best to ACTUALLY read the full report rather than picking out a raisin from a fruit loaf

New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China’s Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India

June 28, 2017

Cambridge, Massachusetts – The economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighboring India, where it is likely to stay over the coming decade, according to new growth projections presented by researchers at the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID). Growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly. The projections are optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam. The growth projections are based on measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.

In examining the latest 2015 global trade data, CID researchers find a clear turn in trade winds, as 2015 marks the first year for which world exports have fallen since the 2009 global financial crisis. This time around, the decline in trade was driven largely by the fall in oil prices. High oil prices had driven a decade of rapid growth in oil economies, outpacing expectations. Since the decline in oil prices in mid 2014, growth in oil economies ground to a halt, where it is likely to stay, according to the projections, given little progress on diversification and complexity.

“The major oil economies are experiencing the pitfalls of their reliance on one resource. India, Indonesia, and Vietnam have accumulated new capabilities that allow for more diverse and more complex production that predicts faster growth in the coming years,” said Ricardo Hausmann, director of CID, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), and the lead researcher of The Atlas of Economic Complexity.

The projections warn of a continued slowdown in global growth over the coming decade. India and Uganda top the list of the fastest growing economies to 2025, at 7.7 percent annually, but for different reasons. Uganda joins three other East African countries in the top 10 fastest growing countries, though a significant fraction of that growth is due to rapid population growth. On a per capita basis, Uganda is the only East African country that remains in the top 10 in the growth projections, though at 4.5 percent annually its prospects are more modest. On the other hand, the researchers attribute India’s rapid growth prospects to the fact that it is particularly well positioned to continue diversifying into new areas, given the capabilities accumulated to date. India has made inroads in diversifying its export base to include more complex sectors, such as chemicals, vehicles, and certain electronics.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Predicted Annual Growth Rate to 2025
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
The new 2015 data reveal a decline in China’s exports. China’s economic complexity ranking also falls four spots for the first time since the global financial crisis. China’s rapid growth rate over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and its income, which researchers suggest is the harbinger of slower growth. The growth projections still have China growing above the world average, though at 4.4 percent annually for the coming decade, the slowdown relative to the current growth trend is significant.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Growth By Region
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
The researchers place the diversity of tacit productive knowledge—or knowhow—that a society has at the heart of the economic growth story. A central stylized fact of world income differences is that poor countries produce few goods that many countries can make, while rich countries produce a great diversity of goods, including products that few other countries can make. The team uses this fact to measure the amount of knowhow that is held in each economy. “Economic complexity not only describes why countries are rich or poor today, but also can predict future growth, about five times more accurately than the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index,” said Sebastian Bustos, a research fellow at CID.

New Economic Complexity Index Rankings
CID also released new country rankings of the 2015 Economic Complexity Index(ECI), the measure that forms the basis for much of the growth projections. The ECI finds the most complex countries in the world, as measured by the average complexity of their export basket, remain Japan, Switzerland, Germany, South Korea, and Austria. Of the 40 most complex countries, the biggest risers in the rankings for the decade ending in 2015 have been the Philippines (ECI rank: up 28 positions to rank 32nd globally), Thailand (+11 to 25th), China (+10 to 23rd), Lithuania (+9 to 30th), and South Korea (+8 to 4th). Conversely, the biggest losers have been Canada (-9 to 33rd), Serbia, Belarus, Spain (-6 to 29th), and France (-6 to 16th).

The countries that show the fastest declines in the complexity rankings in the decade ending in 2015 nearly all have had policy regimes that have been adversarial to the accumulation of productive knowhow, with the largest declines in Cuba (-50), Venezuela (-44), Zimbabwe (-23), Tajikistan (-22), Libya (-22), and Argentina (-18). Globally, the fastest risers in complexity in 2015 have been the Philippines, Malawi (+26 to 94th), Uganda (+24 to 77th), Vietnam (+24 to 64th), and Cambodia (+16 to 88th).

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Most and Least Complex Countries

Click to enlarge left or right image.
Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Largest Wins and Losses

Click to enlarge left or right image.
The growth projections highlight that economic growth fails to follow one easy pattern or rule system. The countries that are expected to be the fastest growing – India, Turkey, Indonesia, Uganda, and Bulgaria – are diverse in all political, institutional, geographic and demographic dimensions. “What they share is a focus on expanding the capabilities of their workforce that leaves them well positioned to diversify into new products, and products of increasingly greater complexity,” said Timothy Cheston, a research fellow at CID.

The projections divide global countries into three basic categories: those countries with too few productive capabilities to easily diversify into related products, including Bangladesh, Ecuador, and Guinea; those countries which have enough capabilities that make diversification and growth easier, which include India, Indonesia, and Turkey; and those advanced countries – such as Japan, Germany, and the United States – that already produce nearly all existing products, so that progress will require pushing the world’s technological frontier by inventing new products, a process that implies slower growth.

Economic Complexity Global Growth Projections: Economic Complexity Ranking Changes
Source: The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 2015. Harvard Center for International Development.
Click here to view the visualization full-screen.
The economic complexity growth projections differ from those of the IMF and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Relative to EIU predictions, CID researchers are less optimistic about a set of countries that include Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Cuba. Conversely, CID researchers have greater optimism for the growth prospects of Uganda, Guatemala, Mexico, Tanzania, and Brazil.

The researchers emphasize that the benefit of these medium-term projections is that nothing is set in stone, but there are many steps policymakers, investors, and business leaders can take to enter more complex production to realize faster growth.

About the Center for International Development
The Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University is a university-wide center that works to advance the understanding of development challenges and offer viable solutions to problems of global poverty. CID is Harvard’s leading research hub focusing on resolving the dilemmas of public policy associated with generating stable, shared, and sustainable prosperity in developing countries. Our ongoing mission is to revolutionize the world of development practice.

Contact: Chuck McKenney

Email: chuck_mckenney@hks.harvard.edu

Phone: (617) 495-4112

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/growth-predictions/

Strangely I was thinking the article was posted by an Indian member, about India. India will be something in 5-10 years is exclusive to the Indian members, I believe there are exceptions !!!

All good luck to Pakistan !!!

 

[damiendehorn]

Wait Bangladesh's growth is 2.8%? Can anyone eleborate on this?

.....yup were just growing at only 2.8%....keep it under your hat......Harvard!....

 

[ebrahym]

Pakistan’s 5.97 per cent growth rate is above that of China, which is set to grow by 4.41 per cent. PHOTO: Reuters

Pakistan’s predicted annual growth rate over the next 10 years is nearly 6 per cent, according to the revised growth projections presented by researchers at the Centre for International Development (CID) at the Harvard University.

This is a one-point GDP increase as in the CID’s earlier projections, Pakistan GDP was set to grow at 5 per cent by 2025.

Although China’s huge economy (current GDP at $12 trillion) cannot be compared with that of Pakistan (current GDP at $300 billion), Pakistan’s 5.97 per cent growth rate is above that of China, which is set to grow by 4.41 per cent.

Pakistan’s 5.97 per cent growth rate is above China, which is set to grow by 4.41 per cent. PHOTO: THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY, 2015. HARVARD CID

Led by Harvard Kennedy School, the research is called ‘The Atlas of Economic Complexity’.

The CID’s growth projections are based on the measures of each country’s economic complexity, which captures the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in its exports and the ease with which it could further diversify by expanding those capabilities.

According to the Harvard study, the economic complexity not only describes why countries are rich or poor today, but can also predict future growth — about five times more accurately than the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index.

Pakistan’s neighbour India, on the other hand, is predicted to grow by 7.72 per cent, the world’s highest. The CID believes that the economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighbouring India and it is likely to stay there over the coming decade.

‘Pakistan’s GDP growth expected to hit 9-year high in current fiscal year’

Except for India, Pakistan will beat all Asian economies in GDP growth. These also include giant Muslim economies.

Here are some regional countries (and their GDP growth) Pakistan will be ahead of:

Muslim and South Asian countries:

Indonesia 5.82 per cent

Turkey 5.64 per cent

Malaysia 4.82 per cent

Sri Lanka 3.77 per cent

Saudi Arabia 3.17 per cent

Bangladesh 2.82 per cent

UAE 2.41 per cent

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries:

Tajikistan 3.61 per cent

Uzbekistan 3.32 per cent

Kazakhstan 2.65 per cent

Kyrgyzstan 5.77 per cent

Russia 2.60 per cent

According to the Harvard study, the central reason for income differences is know-how. Poor countries produce few goods that many countries can make because of the lack of know-how, while rich countries produce a greater diversity of goods, including products that few other countries can make.

Harvard’s leading research hub uses this fact to measure the amount of the know-how that is held in each economy.

A major trend that emerges from Harvard’s report is that the growth in emerging markets is predicted to continue to outpace that of advanced economies, though not uniformly.

Pakistan’s GDP growth expected at 4.9%: Moody’s

In addition to Pakistan, the CID projections are also optimistic about new growth hubs in East Africa and new segments of Southeast Asia, led by Indonesia and Vietnam. it also notes that economies based on commodity output face slower growth rates as commodity prices continue to remain under pressure.

With special economic zones (SEZs) being built under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, it is an opportunity for Pakistan to move away from commodity output by producing value-added goods in joint ventures with Chinese firms and increase its exports. This way, Pakistan can have even faster income growth.

The Harvard growth projections are in line with other short, medium and long-term GDP growth forecasts for Pakistan.

HSBC: 5 per cent leading to 2050

IMF: 5.5 per cent leading to 2020

The World Bank: 5.8 per cent leading to 2019

The Economist: 5.7 per cent in 2017

In a bid to materialise this growth projection, what needs to be chalked out is a multi-pronged strategy. Pakistan needs to diversify its product capabilities. With likely new FDI inflows, Pakistani firms can go into producing value added goods both for domestic consumption as well as exports.

The firms, currently content with domestic sales turnover, need to introduce some percentage of exports to their strategic plans. Similarly, Pakistan’s agriculture sector needs to address its lack of sophistication and crop and distribution losses. The cumulative effect of even modest steps will help increase our GDP growth.



Wali Zahid is an award-winning journalist and a blogger. He is Pakistan futurist and writes on the economy. He tweets @walizahid.
Pakistan's GDP growth rate is even higher than that of China: Harvard study - The Express Tribune