Pakistan's GDP growth expected to touch 3% mark for FY2021

[Syed1.]

People who are getting diarrhea at the thought of PTI performing well and the economy actually expanding should watch this video.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396581636897218562

 

[ziaulislam]

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Honestly $$ doesnt matter
What really matters is PP GDP not nominal

you guys,are celebrating a 3.94% as,a major achievement. by the way this is from a Pakistani source no doubt so I have my doubts,on credibility of this.

just to show you how relatively poor this growth rate I'm going to post a a source of the growth rate of India a country ravaged by covid and still the reduced growth is,over 10% ...
the source is from.uk so no arguments over credibility either and is dated 21st April

Oxford Economics lowers India's 2021 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%

Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.

m.economictimes.com

a developing country needs minimum 7%
and when your rupee is so weak this,explain why you are so far behind even Bangladesh now

a developing country needs 7% growth hence PTI 4% growth with surplus is bad...
It should be negative growth like in 2018 i.e 5.2% with 24b deficit that then led to 30% devaluation (after 30% devalution from 107 to 129) and year 2019(after 10% devalution)
Its just a waste of time..its like
بینس کے آگے بین بجانا

 

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

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Share government stats with links of PBS and SBP as i did.

 

[Zibago]

wont happen, cant expect a miracle twice

this govt was a miracle without central punjab support, if any PTI support has dropped their

Magic bullet is voting rights for Overseas Pakistanis lets see what ECP does about that

 

[Muhammad Omar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395734835839254529

Saday Main Saanp di buhat yaad aandi hai

@muhammadhafeezmalik @syedtalhamaududi @FOOLS_NIGHTMARE @volatile @ejaz007 @Muhammad Omar @waqasmwi @Oracle

LOL GDP PMLN le k jai uper ya PTI I always appreciate those which plays their role in taking Pakistan forward.. Khair Congratulations hope Pakistan achieves 6% GDP as well Insha'Allah

 

[ziaulislam]

People who are getting diarrhea at the thought of PTI performing well and the economy actually expanding should watch this video.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396581636897218562

Look even an idiot can tell the difference between a growth of 5.2 with 24b deficit and 4% growth with surplus


So those who still are denial are either paid or hate IK so much that even if in 10 yrs we do become a median income country they will still yearn for their leader Mr shareef

 

[Patriot forever]

Look even an idiot can tell the difference between a growth of 5.2 with 24b deficit and 4% growth with surplus


So those who still are denial are either paid or hate IK so much that even if in 10 yrs we do become a median income country they will still yearn for their leader Mr shareef

Wait for more surprises. Actual sales are the best indicator for retail services sector. Transport and communication sector is the only sector in services which has suffered heavily due to covid.

These are the actual sales figures from kse 100 listed companies, not government generated data.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396802182419255296

AKD securities is projecting 4.64% as well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1396845383884681221

Power generation is up 6.5% 10M FY21.

 

[HRK]

 

[HRK]

 

[Respect4Respect01]

 

[PakPrinciples]

A sustainable 2-3% is better than a 5-6% that will lead to disaster in a few years time. Slow and steady, build those exports, reduce debt servicing, continue increasing tax collection, and fix that savings rate. Do these slowly and surely, then we can have proper growth, and an end to the IMF cycle.

That's not true.

Pakistan's boom bust cycle is the result of poor planning nothing more.

It's like when you try to scale you businesses up fast but don't know how to do it properly so wind up busting needing to slow things down until issues are resolved (ex. you don't have the proper cash flow in case banks prevent you from withdrawing payments for days or maybe even weeks at a time which prevents you from covering overhead and operating expenditures which btw is probably the MOST common problem you'll wind up experiencing if you're growing fast especially as a new business).

This is meant to be positive, what a bloody shambles. For on 5.8 % to -0.4 to 0 % and no a pipe dream to touching 3% with a barge pole.
Shaukat Tareen said that it will take a while to get to 2018 level. PTI's 4th finance minister in under 3 years.
FFS heads must role. Ik fraudiya bring the first

It's not great.

However, you need to remember PML-N rule saw our trade deficit widen a whopping 220% in 5 years (FY13 to FY18).

You don't think that's utterly insane?

My question to Noony Tunes is which growth is better

1. 4% with a current account surplus of $1b
2. 5.8% with a current account deficit of $20b

because the world economy was not in the midst of covid.

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The current account deficit and a lot of the associated figures you guys are looking at were affected by a number of things.

For starters, in contradiction to Asad Umar, the Covid19 pandemic wasn't bad for Pakistan instead it was a blessing in terms of trade.

Our exports dropped 7% but our overall trade deficit dropped a whopping 30% that's because our import bill shrank $10 Billion USD in FY20 compared to FY19 and has been declining ever since the devaluation took place because an overvalued rupee made imports cheap and exports expensive.

Furthermore, the "increase" in remittances has helped immensely in improving the country's current account.

However, the "increase" in remittances is likely due to a host of factors such as:

1. Clampdowns globally and domestically in Pakistan on informal money transfer schemes like Hawala to comply with FATF requirements since Pakistan was put on the grey list in June 2018. Furthermore the heavy restrictions on movement, particularly air travel, during the Covid19 pandemic have greatly impeded the ability of hawala networks to operate and transport money
2. The increased availability of technology has made money transfer through formal mechanisms easier, faster and just as cheap.
3. Flow of overseas workers returning to Pakistan due to Covid19 lock downs resulting in many of them transferring savings, which included money for Hajj, back home and this time through banks rather than carrying it on their person due to Covid19 travel restrictions and clampdowns on informal money transfer schemes like hawala.
4. Overseas Pakistani's remitting extra money saved because of Covid19 (ex. I saved a TON on not using Uber and Lyft to get around, paying car insurance and for gas).

This has been happening slowly over the past few years as more people opened bank accounts and saw more options made available to expats and locals such as Western Union but was expedited after Pakistan was put on the FATF grey list in June 2018.

So what you're likely seeing isn't an "increase" at all rather money Pakistan couldn't see before, like during the PML-N tenure, so wasn't able to count towards our current account.

What I suspected is the cause of this was even highlighted in the article below:
What's behind Pakistan's pandemic-defying remittance boom?

However, as I also stated in another post, a surge in remittances isn't necessarily a positive sign what it can also mean is that expats working abroad are having to send back more money to help their family pay for increased expenditures like when inflation increases up 200% compared to 2018.

Lastly the BIGGEST issue with the PML-N government was their refusal to devalue the rupee that made imports cheap and exports expensive hence why, as I stated in my response to @syedtalhamaududi, our trade deficit widened a whopping 220% in 5 years under the PML-N

This is still an estimate, with numbers for May and June pending. Most people now believe it will be 4.5%+...

Personally I would have said I didn't see it improving much more if anything it was likely to drop but it really depends.

Right now Pakistan has benefited immensely from having kept its industries open during the Covid pandemic while major regional competitors like India and even Bangladesh imposed lock downs and the overall chaos the pandemic created particularly in India had a major impact on their manufacturing sector which I strongly suspect Pakistan benefited from.

As oil prices climb and major regional competitors come back online it's highly likely that Pakistan will lose some export orders that will shift to India and Bangladesh, imports will increase as will our trade deficit but those imports and increased consumption domestically could make up for the loss of export oriented growth though not what I'd prefer.

We still need to focus on import subsitution

I totally agree.

There are a host of products we import in large enough quantities to warrant the cost effective production locally that could then be increased for exports including but not limited to:

• Di-ammonium phosphate
• P-xylene
• Polypropylene
• Polyethylene
• Soya Beans
• Palm Oil & Black Tea
• Terephthalic Acid and Ethylene Glycol
• Automobiles, motorcycles and parts
• Iron Ore and Steel products
• Coal

 

[Jungibaaz]

If PTI get a second term we need to target double digit growth.

I’d say let’s not jump the gun and squander hard fought gains, if we manage a sustainable 6-8% over this decade, it will be nothing short of a huge victory.

Yeah let's take PTI's estimate of 4% growth with big heap of salt but believe PML-N's fake 5.2% growth number as the absolute truth because we like them more.

Sahi hogaya

I’m not following or modelling Pakistan’s growth rate personally, my area of work is focussed in a similar area but mostly in developed markets. All I’m saying is that it's a big jump to go from negative real terms growth to 4%, if it is achieved, then fantastic. I'll probably wait for the IMF and World Bank, and also some ratings agencies to update their forecasts.

Also, I'm not discussing PMLN here, yes they did manage 5.2% growth (that is also the IMF's official estimate too), but they do not deserve credit for this growth rate since it was built on disastrous policy planning, and only built to last a few years before the inevitable crisis that ensued. If this government wanted to, they could scale back their CAD and budget deficit tightening, throw caution to the wind and start pumping PKR to boost purchasing power and reduce prices (boosting consumption led growth)... basically if Imran Khan wanted to, he could theoretically, order his government to repeat PMLN style stupid policies and get us >5% growth. But then just like PML, it would lead to disaster. So comparing 5.2% in 2017 is not a fair comparison to today. Today's growth is less, but built on a much better foundation.

 

[Jungibaaz]

That's not true.

Pakistan's boom bust cycle is the result of poor planning nothing more.

It's like when you try to scale you businesses up fast but don't know how to do it properly so wind up busting needing to slow things down until issues are resolved (ex. you don't have the proper cash flow in case banks prevent you from withdrawing payments for days or maybe even weeks at a time which prevents you from covering overhead and operating expenditures which btw is probably the MOST common problem you'll wind up experiencing if you're growing fast especially as a new business).

Not sure I follow your argument here buddy, what did I say that was wrong per se? As far as I can tell, those are the main issues with our growth constraints, as echoed by a few different economists, academics, and relevant int'l agencies. As for the boom bust cycle, I'm already in agreement.

The way I look at it is this, the constraints on growth are as I listed:

• Low savings/low investment ratios
• Poor revenue generation/tax collection
• High trade gaps/poor export earnings/short-termist policies for consumption led growth
  

I think the folks over at the BIS and SBP identify these key areas too. So while these constraints remain, forcing 5-6% growth is like driving on old beater and pushing it to its limit, expecting to go as fast as a sports car. Eventually you'll just blow it out and it'll go nowhere. That's the boom bust cycle. We need to drive it carefully, and upgrade the underlying ability, then we can push that growth rate higher, and not have to turn to IMF and other lenders every election cycle.

There are far more issues than those three, I'm oversimplifying, but they're the most quoted from an economic perspective.

 

[Syed1.]

Mulk tu sab ka hai leken is achi khabar se kuch log ko khushi kay bajaye ghum kyun horaha hai?



Bughz-e-Imran mein itna agay na chalay jao kay Pakistan kay hi khilaaf hojao

 

[Respect4Respect01]

Mulk tu sab ka hai leken is achi khabar se kuch log ko khushi kay bajaye ghum kyun horaha hai?



Bughz-e-Imran mein itna agay na chalay jao kay Pakistan kay hi khilaaf hojao

in logon ko mulk ki fikar hoti to corruption ka sath na dety, yeh log bas paisa banany ke liye Pakistan ko istemal karty h.