Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure

[LeGenD]

@LeGenD so we can safely assume that USA know everything about Pak nukes installations, deployment, localisation of all warheads etc ?

I am not sure but Pentagon would have substantial knowledge.

 

[The Deterrent]

I am not sure but Pentagon would have substantial knowledge.

Much more than substantial, I'm afraid. Short of knowing which type of warhead is in which place in how many numbers, they know pretty much everything. The only problem is that the number of such facilities is not small anymore, so its almost impossible to attempt an 'extraction'. However all of them can be buried underground forever using a couple of B-2s.

 

[AUz]

Much more than substantial, I'm afraid. Short of knowing which type of warhead is in which place in how many numbers, they know pretty much everything. The only problem is that the number of such facilities is not small anymore, so its almost impossible to attempt an 'extraction'. However all of them can be buried underground forever using a couple of B-2s.

So what you are saying is that today, the need of nuclear-armed, long-range, effective submarine fleet is more necessary than ever? I agree.

Pakistani planners should have this target by 2030. With expanding economy and resources (hopefully!) development of an SLBM system is also necessary. With rising indian conventional capabilities in terms of air power and cruise missiles, our nuclear installations on the ground are more vulnerable than ever before. We need a true, robust sea-based second-strike capability

 

[aziqbal]

Much more than substantial, I'm afraid. Short of knowing which type of warhead is in which place in how many numbers, they know pretty much everything. The only problem is that the number of such facilities is not small anymore, so its almost impossible to attempt an 'extraction'. However all of them can be buried underground forever using a couple of B-2s.

Says who you? Is this a personal opinion? If so please substantiate your claim

What Americans know is only via satellites

Do you know what the protocol is when anyone try to visit Thatta through Kala Chitta mountain? or even drive through to visit a village near there?

Maybe speak with someone within the Military

They routinely transfer munitions from POF to the tunnels in the mountains and on the day of the transfer the employees are not told, not allowed to leave work, they are taken at dark, blinded folded and upon arrival get to work then same on the way back

There is a upper echelon of the nuclear forces who are split into groups, no one person knows the full extent of Pakistani nuclear whereabouts or even what they have

 

[The Deterrent]

So what you are saying is that today, the need of nuclear-armed, long-range, effective submarine fleet is more necessary than ever? I agree.

Pakistani planners should have this target by 2030. With expanding economy and resources (hopefully!) development of an SLBM system is also necessary. With rising indian conventional capabilities in terms of air power and cruise missiles, our nuclear installations on the ground are more vulnerable than ever before. We need a true, robust sea-based second-strike capability

SLBM-based second strike capability is necessary, however, not affordable at the moment.

Says who you? Is this a personal opinion? If so please substantiate your claim

What Americans know is only via satellites

Do you know what the protocol is when anyone try to visit Thatta through Kala Chitta mountain? or even drive through to visit a village near there?

Maybe speak with someone within the Military

They routinely transfer munitions from POF to the tunnels in the mountains and on the day of the transfer the employees are not told, not allowed to leave work, they are taken at dark, blinded folded and upon arrival get to work then same on the way back

There is a upper echelon of the nuclear forces who are split into groups, no one person knows the full extent of Pakistani nuclear whereabouts or even what they have

This is indeed a personal opinion, feel free to disagree. Satellites are more than enough to provide necessary intel in this case, specially when the military has dumb-heads in charge of sensitive things. HUMINT is a bonus, which for some reason, is considered the only weak link in the chain according to the same dumb-heads.

Kindly calm yourself, what you've been led to believe is not always true.

 

[CriticalThought]

Says who you? Is this a personal opinion? If so please substantiate your claim

What Americans know is only via satellites

Do you know what the protocol is when anyone try to visit Thatta through Kala Chitta mountain? or even drive through to visit a village near there?

Maybe speak with someone within the Military

They routinely transfer munitions from POF to the tunnels in the mountains and on the day of the transfer the employees are not told, not allowed to leave work, they are taken at dark, blinded folded and upon arrival get to work then same on the way back

There is a upper echelon of the nuclear forces who are split into groups, no one person knows the full extent of Pakistani nuclear whereabouts or even what they have

The technology is available where a tiny sensor can link with a satellite. You have mobile coverage throughout the country and nobody knows exactly what those towers transmit and receive.

 

[Mrc]

Like they have buried the north Korean ones who are rumored to have less than 10 nukes

 

[M.AsfandYar]

He's not an idiot, kindly respect others' experience and knowledge. What he said was not exactly true, but Pakistan may have done things that way a long time ago.

Sorry mistook him with someone else.
Deleted my post.
The guy i was referring too was not talking about a long time ago but recent times. 2011 or something like that. It was picked up by some senator or congressman that went on to formulate an excellent theory that Hafiz Saeed perpetrated Mumbai attacks, to start a war with India, so that Pakistan will move tactical nukes to Field Commanders enroute which Hafiz Saeed and him Jamaat will hit and snatch those away.
What was amazing the amount of people there. And the "Expert" was on Fareed Zakaria's Show.

 

[AUz]

SLBM-based second strike capability is necessary, however, not affordable at the moment.

That’s why I gave the timeline of 2030. If the high command is really serious, they can definitely make this happen in next 12 years. It’s more about will I guess.

 

[SQ8]

SLBM-based second strike capability is necessary, however, not affordable at the moment.


This is indeed a personal opinion, feel free to disagree. Satellites are more than enough to provide necessary intel in this case, specially when the military has dumb-heads in charge of sensitive things. HUMINT is a bonus, which for some reason, is considered the only weak link in the chain according to the same dumb-heads.

Kindly calm yourself, what you've been led to believe is not always true.

Repeating something told to me by a military man in a project manager role in the facility next to Fauji Foundation.
“India is buying S-400’s which are fairly long range systems that will counter the system you are working on”

“That not an issue, air force F-16s will go low and bomb those sites.. not a problem”

All I could give was a blank stare.

 

[Dazzler]

Repeating something told to me by a military man in a project manager role in the facility next to Fauji Foundation.
“India is buying S-400’s which are fairly long range systems that will counter the system you are working on”

“That not an issue, air force F-16s will go low and bomb those sites.. not a problem”

All I could give was a blank stare.

They have been preparing to handle the S-400s for months by employing different tactics and weapon systems, wild Wiesel and jamming/spoofing.

 

[SQ8]

They have been preparing to handle the S-400s for months by employing different tactics and weapon systems, wild Wiesel and jamming/spoofing.

They might have, but the point is that we have some very VERY wrong people managing things of very medicore performance records in critical places just because they are military or ex-military. So the problem of nepotism and corruption isn’t confined to bad governance by political parties but in such cases can lead to serious danger to the country.

 

[The Deterrent]

Repeating something told to me by a military man in a project manager role in the facility next to Fauji Foundation.
“India is buying S-400’s which are fairly long range systems that will counter the system you are working on”

“That not an issue, air force F-16s will go low and bomb those sites.. not a problem”

All I could give was a blank stare.

Afsos hi kar saktay hain.

These guys are still living in the 90s.

 

[SQ8]

Afsos hi kar saktay hain.

These guys are still living in the 90s.

These guys should not be there. I had a frank discussion on this with a senior officer on the promotion/selection committee they have(the one with a excel sheet showing greens and reds apparently) who was open on how some of the mediocre or slated for retirement folks are sent off to Fauji Foundation, NDC , Agencies or other places to “live off their retirement”.
Basically, the bad apples are thrown out of the Army into MORE senstive places as management or project heads assuming somehow that for Electronic Support system project should be easy to manage for someone not fit enough to command a brigade!
So what you get is essentially some of these career duds or blockheads at key places either trying to pass the time, engage in some commissions and corruption, or worse actually trying to prove themselves and screwing up critical projects.

 

[The Deterrent]

These guys should not be there. I had a frank discussion on this with a senior officer on the promotion/selection committee they have(the one with a excel sheet showing greens and reds apparently) who was open on how some of the mediocre or slated for retirement folks are sent off to Fauji Foundation, NDC , Agencies or other places to “live off their retirement”.
Basically, the bad apples are thrown out of the Army into MORE senstive places as management or project heads assuming somehow that for Electronic Support system project should be easy to manage for someone not fit enough to command a brigade!
So what you get is essentially some of these career duds or blockheads at key places either trying to pass the time, engage in some commissions and corruption, or worse actually trying to prove themselves and screwing up critical projects.

Thats true. The incompetency of the "high" command in sensitive positions is so astonishing, that apparently guys on twitter freak them out and cause them to take "action". They have absolutely no realization of how the real world works these days. They still think that if you block digital access to the facilities, and move people around in blindfolds, the outside world won't know whats going on. The military still judges itself on 90's standards.

Besides the obvious devastation, I sincerely hope that it never comes to the point that a nuclear war breaks out. We might launch the first few, but I'm afraid thats gonna be all from our side.