Pakistan’s economic growth expected to rise to 5.1pc this year: UN Survey

[farhan_9909]

ISLAMABAD: The United Nations Thursday launched the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2015 forecasting that the economic growth of Pakistan was expected to rise to 5.1 percent in 2015.

"In Pakistan, economic growth picked-up to 4.1% in 2014 from average of 3.7% in the previous three years. Growth is expected to rise to 5.1% in 2015," said the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

Former Chief ESCAP Macroeconomic, Policy and Analysis Section Dr. Muhammad Hussain Malik, presented the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2015 in a ceremony held here at the UN Information Centre.

Addressing the ceremony, he said the economic growth of Pakistan was expected to improve in the coming years, partly due to government's major efforts to address electricity shortages and other infrastructural bottlenecks.

However, he said there was urgent need to make this growth more inclusive and broad-based by spreading its benefits to all parts of the country and segments of society.

Dean School of Social Sciences at NUST Professor Ashfaque Hasan Khan and Executive Director, Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri also attended the ceremony.

The survey titled `Making Growth More Inclusive for Sustainable Development' shows that growth in the region's developing nations will increase only slightly, to 5.9 per cent in 2015 from 5.8 per cent last year, with no significant change expected in 2016.

According to the survey, the inflation was on the decline and budget deficit is being contained. Foreign exchange reserves have significantly improved.

It said that the market confidence in Pakistan's outlook seemed to have improved. In April 2014, the country issued sovereign bonds in international markets for the first time in seven years and it was oversubscribed.

Professor Ashfaque Hasan Khan noted that Pakistan's economic growth has slowed down considerably over the last several years, giving rise to youth unemployment.

He emphasized the need to readjust the country's fiscal and monetary policy to revive inclusive growth.

Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri said that for growth to catalyze sustainable development it is crucial to achieve macro-economic stability and to distribute its benefits at micro level.

Launching the Survey in Bangkok, Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, UN ESCAP Executive Secretary emphasized the need to promote quality growth and shared prosperity in the region.



She called on regional policymakers to integrate and mainstream inclusive growth by adopting a mixed set of measures to achieve better social and environmental outcomes to enhance public welfare.

The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific has been monitoring regional progress, providing cutting-edge analyses and guiding policy discussion to support inclusive and sustainable development in the region since 1947.

Pakistan's economic growth expected to rise to 5.1pc this year: UN Survey

 

[Menace2Society]

Why is everyone giving different figures. Which is correct one?

 

[WaLeEdK2]

Why is everyone giving different figures. Which is correct one?

We'll find out by the end of the year.

 

[farhan_9909]

Why is everyone giving different figures. Which is correct one?

Most likely we will end up with 4.8% growth rate

 

[Hyde]

UN has only quoted the figures of GoP. 5.1% cannot be achieved for this year as only few weeks are left but I am optimistic for the next year

 

[farhan_9909]

ISLAMABAD: The United Nations latest report on the economic outlook for Asia and the Pacific has feared that Pakistan’s economy will still be constrained by macroeconomic imbalances despite expected economic growth in the coming years.

The ‘Economic and Social Survey of the Asia and the Pacific 2015’ launched on Thursday, pointed out that persistently high fiscal deficit, financed by borrowings from the banking system including the central bank, has crowded out private investment and added to inflationary pressure.

Similarly, supply side constraints — such as poor domestic security conditions, unfriendly investment climate and severe power shortages — remain in place.

Sustained economic growth is needed to help generate more jobs and cut poverty, which remained at 13.6 per cent in 2011, the report said.

Despite some progress, a narrow tax base, widespread tax evasion and required restructuring of loss-making state-owned enterprises will continue to limit revenue collection.

At the same time, improving fiscal conditions through expenditure cuts may be difficult due to the rigid structure of government spending, the report said, citing example that debt servicing and military spending account for more than half of total budgeted expenditure.

Nevertheless, the ESCAP survey noted that the country’s economy expanded by 4.1pc, a slight pick-up from the average growth rate of 3.7pc in the preceding three years. Growth is expected to rise to 5.1pc in 2015, it said.

Declining inflation, relatively better growth in private sector credit and robust workers’ remittances helped propel consumer spending.

Speaking at the launching ceremony, Economist Dr Ashfaq Hasan Khan said that Pakistan was facing double challenge — the first reviving the growth and second making the growth inclusive.

Pakistan has been implementing an IMF-supported programme since 2008 with focus on ‘stabilising’ first and ‘growth’ later.

“Such a prolonged period of stabilisation has suffocated the economy,” he said regretting that “too much fixation on reducing budget deficit austerity appears to have weakened domestic demand which has now weakened supply side, slowing down in production.”

Dr Ashfaq suggested that Pakistan needs to get out from ‘survival’ to ‘recovery’ mode, and macroeconomic policies should not focus narrowly on reducing budget deficit.

Policies should be supportive of growth and employment generation. At the same time, the developmental role of monetary and fiscal policy will need to be strengthened, he said.

He further suggested that the government should not use monetary policy just as a mean for controlling inflation. Instead, the use of this powerful instrument should be to influence both price and volume of credit to achieve its developmental objectives, he added.

The survey also pointed out that the growth potential of Asia-Pacific developing economies was being held back by infrastructure shortages and the excessive commodity dependence of some countries.

The fragile global economic recovery and consequently subdued global trade, pose additional challenges, it warned.

Pakistan’s economy to grow 5.1pc in 2015: ESCAP - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

 

[Qalandari]

LOL here is the detailed report with official link:

Pakistan

The economy expanded by 4.1% in 2014, a slight pickup from the average growth rate of 3.7% in the preceding three years. Declining inflation, relatively better growth in private sector credit and robust workers’ remittances helped propel consumer spending. More modest price pressure led to a policy rate cut in November 2014 followed by another cut in January 2015. The settlement of the Government’s overdue payments to independent power producers also contributed to a more favourable macroeconomic environment, although overdue payments recently increased again. Meanwhile, market confidence in Pakistan’s outlook seems to have improved. In April 2014, the country issued sovereign bonds in international markets for the first time in seven years. The oversubscription of the $2 billion in bonds was in part due to the high interest rate offered and the abundant liquidity available in international markets.

The growth outlook is forecast to be favourable at 5.1% in 2015 and 4.8% in 2016. Expected growth acceleration in 2015 would be mainly due to the expected pickup in industrial activity. The economy will still be constrained, however, by macroeconomic imbalances. In recent years, persistently high fiscal deficits,financedbyborrowingsfromthebanking system, including the central bank, have crowded out private investment and added to inflationary pressure. Similarly, supply-side constraints, such as poor domestic security conditions, unfriendly investment climate and severe power shortages, remain in place. Sustained economic growth is needed to help generate more jobs and cut poverty, which remained at 13.6% in 2011.

Nevertheless, fiscal consolidation efforts have continued. The fiscal deficit contracted to 5.5% of GDP in fiscal year 2014, mainly due to one-off non-tax revenue receipts, such as proceeds from the sale of 3G spectrum in the telecommunications sector. Similarly, selling stakes in a bank raised $387millioninJune2014. Despite some progress, a narrow tax base, widespread tax evasion and required restructuring of loss-making State-owned enterprises will continue to limit revenue collection. At the same time, improving fiscal conditions through expenditure cuts may be difficult due to the rigid structure of government spending. For example, debt servicing and military spending account for more than half of total budgeted expenditure.

http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2015.pdf

 

[ziaulislam]

Why is everyone giving different figures. Which is correct one?

most reliable figures are of WB ,IMF and the govt of pakistan. so far hey indicate it to be around 4.1-4.5 for next year.

even achieving 5 will not change much, for we have other problems, as far as growth is concern the south asian region is showing accelerated growth due to oil prices drop

i will keep my eyes open for government reforms in power, tax , health and education rather than raw growth.
for example had IMF not been there PML N could have achieved a growth of 6-7 under these conditions due to budget spending alone but that been a sustainable growth? obviously not

 

[Kabira]

Why is everyone giving different figures. Which is correct one?

We will get official figures next month when gov presents budget.