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Pakistan's Debt, liabilities mount to Rs 40.2 trillion, 104% of GDP now

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https://tribune.com.pk/story/2040895/1-debt-liabilities-mount-rs40-2-trillion/

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ISLAMABAD:

For the first time in 19 years, Pakistan’s debt and liabilities have dangerously exceeded the size of its economy and peaked to a record Rs40.2 trillion at the end of last fiscal year – an addition of a whopping Rs10.3 trillion in a single year.

The Rs40.2 trillion total debt and liabilities were equal to 104.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reported the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday.

It was for the first time since the year 2000 when Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities were higher than the size of its economy.

In 2000, the country’s total debt and liabilities were equal to 106% of the GDP.

Total debt and liabilities also include the public sector enterprises’ (PSEs) debt, non-governmental external debt and inter-company external debt from direct investors abroad.

One of the reasons behind the steep spike in debt and liabilities was booking of some of the pending liabilities on the instructions of the International Monetary Fund.

Ironically, the dangerous threshold had been crossed during the first year of the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan who has long remained very critical of the Pakistan Peoples Party and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s economic policies that led to massive piling up of the debt.

To a question raised by The Express Tribune in March this year, Prime Minister Imran said one of the benchmarks of his success would be reducing the total debt and liabilities from Rs30 trillion to Rs20 trillion. But exactly the opposite happened.

The external debt and liabilities of Pakistan mounted to $106.3 billion as of June 2019, according to the central bank.

In the last fiscal year, net $11.1 billion was added to the external debt and liabilities by the federal government, SBP and private sector.

Statistics released by the SBP showed that by the end of last fiscal year, the country’s total debt and liabilities soared to Rs40.2 trillion.

Within a span of just one year, there was an increase of Rs10.3 trillion, or 34.6%, in the overall debt and liabilities.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had promised to revive loss-making enterprises, but it was struggling to control these losses.

By the end of last fiscal year, total losses of PSEs surged to Rs1.62 trillion, a net addition of Rs323 billion or 25% in the past one year.

The only thing that the PTI government had done was the incorporation of Pakistan Sarmaya Company. It had also become dormant.

Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities were now equal to 104.3% of its GDP, which was a quite high ratio and considered unsustainable for the country.

Of the Rs40.2 trillion, the gross public debt, which was the direct responsibility of the government, stood at Rs28.6 trillion as of the end of June.

The gross public debt was now equal to 74.4% of GDP, far higher than the 60% statutory limit set in the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act of 2005.

There was an increase of Rs3.7 trillion in the gross public debt in one year, which was higher than the overall budget deficit recorded during the period. One of the key reasons behind the higher debt was the increase in interest rate and depreciation of the rupee in the last fiscal year.

Rupee one depreciation added Rs106 billion to the public debt. Similarly, a 1% increase in interest rate increased the cost of debt servicing by roughly Rs180 billion. This ultimately increased borrowing requirements for the finance ministry.

Since December 2017, the central bank had let the currency weaken by 50% and had jacked up the interest rate by 7.50%.

Excluding the liabilities, the country’s total debt swelled to Rs37.75 trillion, up Rs9.3 trillion or 18% in one year.

The government’s domestic debt surged to Rs20.7 trillion with addition of Rs4.3 trillion in the last fiscal year. Its external debt increased to a record Rs11 trillion.

Total external debt and liabilities surged to Rs14.9 trillion on the back of currency depreciation and new borrowings. In dollar terms, Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities stood at $106.3 billion. This was mainly because of Chinese, Saudi and United Arab Emirates loans that Pakistan secured for balance of payments support.

The debt taken by Pakistan from the IMF increased in rupee terms by Rs180 billion to Rs921 billion due to steep currency devaluation. This was despite the fact that Pakistan retired some IMF debt in the last fiscal year.

Total liabilities, which were indirectly the responsibility of the finance ministry, increased to Rs2.1 trillion. There was an increase of 71% in the liabilities. Domestic liabilities dropped from Rs819 billion to Rs756 billion. But external liabilities increased from Rs622 billion to Rs1.7 trillion in one year, due to loans taken from friendly countries. There was 175% increase in external liabilities in one year.

The interest payments on debt and liabilities also skyrocketed to Rs2.2 trillion in the last fiscal year. The domestic interest payments on debt stood at Rs1.75 trillion –an increase of Rs427 billion or 32%. The external debt interest payments were Rs377 billion –a surge of Rs131 billion or 53%.
 
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If 40.7 trillion is 104.3% of GDP, then per SBP GDP is around $240 billion at today's exchange rate.
 
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TO the Indian posting all this and happy south African manipulating the news into his anti-china nonsense, this debt includes credit card and business loans as well as investors loaning to their own companies from overseas.

Even the article says:

"Total debt and liabilities also include the public sector enterprises (PSEs) debt, non-governmental external debt and inter-company external debt from direct investors abroad."

If you include all that kind of debt for your south Africa or India, you are all far far more under debt than Pakistan ever will be.

A large portion of this debt consists of temporary government borrowing from "pakistani banks and debt owed to vast number of contractors engaged in development programs" which is usually paid off in year or two as government collects taxes
. Industrial debt shows actually high economic activity. So I am happy with high business borrowing .

CPEC has paved the way for Chines industry to move into Pakistan from 2020 to 2025. Once this industrial development goes ahead in 20 or so industrial and technology parks in Pakistan, this debt will look tiny to pay pack. Pakistan has overall small external debt once our industry gets going. Also 40-50 billion from middle east will be invested ranging from oil city to Kuwait's investment in Pakistani agriculture for their food security program and so on as well as in one of largest ship construction yards in the muslim world at Gawadar. Later this investment will increase from Gulf countries including Qatar.

Most of extremely low interest rate Chinese loan is "operate and get paid" which government does not have to even worry about at all. it is even Insured by "CHINESE government" for GOD sake.

So keep feeling happy by twisting facts. This one reply was just to clarify. Also state bank often exaggerates so to prevent government from over stepping or in this case it was "falsely reported" (more likely). Pakistani economy is much larger as per world bank and it should be measured in PPP and if we include undocumented economy, we have 3 times the size at least, that's why have such a large and fast growing middle class.
 
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Either we reduce our liabilities or increase our GDP because this debt level is not sustainable.

We need to reduce the bleeding by amending our energy purchase agreements with all the IPPs. We have been screwed badly because of it resulting in 10 bill $ worth of liquidity wiped out of the debt market that could have been used in revenue generating industries instead of being stuck in receivables and loans.

Further CPEC projects need to be scuitinized again. We can't afford any further orange train type projects that are capex heavy and result in further revenue shortfall.

We also need to go invest heavily in going paperless and blockchaining our currency. When we have the paper trail (via block chaining) we can then easily increase the tax base and documentation of our economy.
 
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Fake news. This government retired a record 9.5 billion debt in last year. How come debt increased by so much.
 
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This news is tailored made by Patwaris for Patwaris to spread among Patwaris. This made me laugh as loans are not so simplistic as they are made out to be....total debt private government through banks / investments

What in the hell this article is trying to prove ?
 
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Pak gdp is over 200 billion, hence debt only is 50% of gdp. According to article. Have i misread something ?
 
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Pakistani declared GDP is almost 300 billion .... unfortunately in the country where only 100000 people paid taxes no one even knows what the real GDP is..... it’s a mess to sort out .
 
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Pak gdp is over 200 billion, hence debt only is 50% of gdp. According to article. Have i misread something ?
You are talking about external debt which is just over 40%. What the article is saying is your total debt as in domestic debt, private debt together crossed your entire GDP.
 
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Rs 40.2 Trillion translates to $268 Billion, at medium term exchange rate of 1 USD = 150 PKR(ignoring the current exchange rate of Rs 157 )

Consequently the Size of Pakistan's economy for the year 2019 would be around $258 Billion.(that is exchange rate remains stable around Rs150)
 
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just a temp flux with inflation at 14% everything will readjust and liabilities will drop back to 80%
pretty much what IMF predicts

GDP indeed dropped to 250b from 313b but by end of next yea will hit back 330+ as this was due to sudden deval

there was no recession in real GDP/PPP terms
 
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Welcome to naya Pakistan.
Let's wait for next 90 days.
 
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Pakistani declared GDP is almost 300 billion .... unfortunately in the country where only 100000 people paid taxes no one even knows what the real GDP is..... it’s a mess to sort out .

The onus is on the government to increase the tax base.

As long as the government doesn't push people to pay taxes this situation is not going to change any time soon.

Welcome to naya Pakistan.
Let's wait for next 90 days.

You do realize that purana Pakistan is the reason for abysmal state of Pak economy? Naya Pakistan didn't wreck the economy.
 
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