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Pakistani politics as Greek tragedy
By Irfan Husain
Saturday, 21 Mar, 2009
IN all conflicts, there are winners and losers. In the recent confrontation over the issue of the chief justice, the PPP is clearly the loser. Specifically, Asif Zardari has lost credibility and stature. Already in short supply when he started out a year ago, these attributes now stand sadly depleted.
While his close (and unelected) advisors also have egg on their face, it is the president who has been sorely wounded in this unnecessary confrontation. But in the long run, it is the PPP that has come out badly battered. A party that survived the worst dictators like Zia and Musharraf could dish out is now virtually unelectable for the foreseeable future.
The voluntary or involuntary departure of heavyweights like Aitzaz Ahsan, Raza Rabbani and Sherry Rehman is not something political parties can easily afford. And there are rumblings within the rank and file, as well as the second level leadership, that Zardari will ignore to his peril.
The reality is that while many PPP leaders and workers accepted Zardaris elevation to the partys top slot, it was a bitter pill to swallow. At the time, there seemed little option. After the murder of the charismatic Benazir Bhutto, some family continuity seemed to offer the best chance of winning the 2008 elections. Also, a leadership challenge at that time carried the risk of splitting the party. Finally, there was no single leader around whom the rank and file would have rallied at that critical juncture.
But a year down the road, the fissures are becoming visible. By his reluctance to leave the security of the presidency except to go abroad, the partys leader is increasingly out of touch with the rank and file. His inner circle consists, according to credible accounts, of unelected individuals whose only credentials for giving political advice is that they have access to Zardari.
Another issue is to do with the powers he wields under the 17th Amendment. When he was elected, it was with the explicit understanding that his government would repeal this law that was imposed by Musharraf. In reality, it has nothing to do with the constitutional powers allotted to the president. In a parliamentary system, such as Pakistans was envisaged under the 1973 Constitution, the president has the non-executive role of symbolising the unity of the federation. He is supposed to be a neutral figure who stands above the fray. But nine years of Musharraf have distorted this role into the present executive presidency where the prime minister is a mere shadow.
In many ways, this arrangement is not unlike that being followed in France and Sri Lanka, to name just two countries. But in both, the president is directly elected. In Pakistan, the president wields absolute power, but without submitting himself to the test of popular support. Of course, this being Pakistan, this power does not extend to the armed forces or their intelligence agencies.
This multiplicity of power centres has given rise to some confusion abroad. Who does a foreign leader call when he or she wishes to discuss matters of substance? This question assumes greater importance than mere protocol when there is some tension between the players.
So where does the PPP go from here? The last election results showed that it the bulk of its support came from rural Sindh and southern Punjab. Its urban constituency has been severely reduced by the PML-N in Punjab and the MQM in Sindh. Tension between Benazir loyalists and Zardari supporters is simmering below the surface. Many of the former have been sidelined, and are sniping at the president at every opportunity. And recently, there has been no shortage of opportunities.
In the zero-sum game that is Pakistani politics, Zardaris loss translates into Nawaz Sharifs gain. While the PML-N chief has taken the moral high ground and pronounced that his support for the lawyers movement had nothing to do with his personal ambition, the reality is somewhat different. Mr Iftikhar Chaudhrys return to the Supreme Court is bad news for the government and personally for Asif Zardari. And what is bad news for Zardari is exceedingly good news for Nawaz Sharif.
Although he is immune from prosecution as president, the possible striking down of the NRO, the Musharraf-era legislation that saw the withdrawal of all charges against Zardari, will severely damage this governments prospects of completing its tenure. People forget that the NRO covered over 700 cases, most of them to do with MQM leaders and workers. If this can of worms is opened, the countrys courts will be flooded with hundreds of cases that will be resurrected.
And in any case, the governments moral authority will be severely eroded in case dozens of charges are dangling against the president. So if the government and the ruling party think the worst is behind them, they had better think again. With a proactive judiciary again, we could be in for a rocky ride.
In a situation like this, the PPP needs a leader who can unite the party and lift sagging morale. And the country needs a president who can reach across party lines, and lead the fight against the common threat. Unfortunately, we do not have such a person in charge. Nor, to be fair, is one in sight across the political spectrum.
In the short term, I can see the PPP maintaining a semblance of unity. But should fresh elections be required before they are due, all the tensions and rivalries will surface, and the partys position will deteriorate. The sad truth is that over this last year, little of substance has emerged by way of policies and legislation.
Since it was created in 1968, the PPP has stood for the poor and the dispossessed of Pakistan. Whether it has delivered on this promise or not is irrelevant: for the wretched of the land, it remains their party. After years in the wilderness, it must succeed now if it is to remain a viable alternative.
In classical Greek tragedy, the audience can see the approaching nemesis, while the protagonist is oblivious to his danger. The chorus sings in the background, warning the hero of his impending doom. At times like this, I feel Im a member of the chorus.
By Irfan Husain
Saturday, 21 Mar, 2009
IN all conflicts, there are winners and losers. In the recent confrontation over the issue of the chief justice, the PPP is clearly the loser. Specifically, Asif Zardari has lost credibility and stature. Already in short supply when he started out a year ago, these attributes now stand sadly depleted.
While his close (and unelected) advisors also have egg on their face, it is the president who has been sorely wounded in this unnecessary confrontation. But in the long run, it is the PPP that has come out badly battered. A party that survived the worst dictators like Zia and Musharraf could dish out is now virtually unelectable for the foreseeable future.
The voluntary or involuntary departure of heavyweights like Aitzaz Ahsan, Raza Rabbani and Sherry Rehman is not something political parties can easily afford. And there are rumblings within the rank and file, as well as the second level leadership, that Zardari will ignore to his peril.
The reality is that while many PPP leaders and workers accepted Zardaris elevation to the partys top slot, it was a bitter pill to swallow. At the time, there seemed little option. After the murder of the charismatic Benazir Bhutto, some family continuity seemed to offer the best chance of winning the 2008 elections. Also, a leadership challenge at that time carried the risk of splitting the party. Finally, there was no single leader around whom the rank and file would have rallied at that critical juncture.
But a year down the road, the fissures are becoming visible. By his reluctance to leave the security of the presidency except to go abroad, the partys leader is increasingly out of touch with the rank and file. His inner circle consists, according to credible accounts, of unelected individuals whose only credentials for giving political advice is that they have access to Zardari.
Another issue is to do with the powers he wields under the 17th Amendment. When he was elected, it was with the explicit understanding that his government would repeal this law that was imposed by Musharraf. In reality, it has nothing to do with the constitutional powers allotted to the president. In a parliamentary system, such as Pakistans was envisaged under the 1973 Constitution, the president has the non-executive role of symbolising the unity of the federation. He is supposed to be a neutral figure who stands above the fray. But nine years of Musharraf have distorted this role into the present executive presidency where the prime minister is a mere shadow.
In many ways, this arrangement is not unlike that being followed in France and Sri Lanka, to name just two countries. But in both, the president is directly elected. In Pakistan, the president wields absolute power, but without submitting himself to the test of popular support. Of course, this being Pakistan, this power does not extend to the armed forces or their intelligence agencies.
This multiplicity of power centres has given rise to some confusion abroad. Who does a foreign leader call when he or she wishes to discuss matters of substance? This question assumes greater importance than mere protocol when there is some tension between the players.
So where does the PPP go from here? The last election results showed that it the bulk of its support came from rural Sindh and southern Punjab. Its urban constituency has been severely reduced by the PML-N in Punjab and the MQM in Sindh. Tension between Benazir loyalists and Zardari supporters is simmering below the surface. Many of the former have been sidelined, and are sniping at the president at every opportunity. And recently, there has been no shortage of opportunities.
In the zero-sum game that is Pakistani politics, Zardaris loss translates into Nawaz Sharifs gain. While the PML-N chief has taken the moral high ground and pronounced that his support for the lawyers movement had nothing to do with his personal ambition, the reality is somewhat different. Mr Iftikhar Chaudhrys return to the Supreme Court is bad news for the government and personally for Asif Zardari. And what is bad news for Zardari is exceedingly good news for Nawaz Sharif.
Although he is immune from prosecution as president, the possible striking down of the NRO, the Musharraf-era legislation that saw the withdrawal of all charges against Zardari, will severely damage this governments prospects of completing its tenure. People forget that the NRO covered over 700 cases, most of them to do with MQM leaders and workers. If this can of worms is opened, the countrys courts will be flooded with hundreds of cases that will be resurrected.
And in any case, the governments moral authority will be severely eroded in case dozens of charges are dangling against the president. So if the government and the ruling party think the worst is behind them, they had better think again. With a proactive judiciary again, we could be in for a rocky ride.
In a situation like this, the PPP needs a leader who can unite the party and lift sagging morale. And the country needs a president who can reach across party lines, and lead the fight against the common threat. Unfortunately, we do not have such a person in charge. Nor, to be fair, is one in sight across the political spectrum.
In the short term, I can see the PPP maintaining a semblance of unity. But should fresh elections be required before they are due, all the tensions and rivalries will surface, and the partys position will deteriorate. The sad truth is that over this last year, little of substance has emerged by way of policies and legislation.
Since it was created in 1968, the PPP has stood for the poor and the dispossessed of Pakistan. Whether it has delivered on this promise or not is irrelevant: for the wretched of the land, it remains their party. After years in the wilderness, it must succeed now if it is to remain a viable alternative.
In classical Greek tragedy, the audience can see the approaching nemesis, while the protagonist is oblivious to his danger. The chorus sings in the background, warning the hero of his impending doom. At times like this, I feel Im a member of the chorus.