Pakistan @ Yemem & Saudi Arabia - The fine print

[Sinnerman108]

There is much debate on what is going on in Yemen, and even more on the declaration from Pakistani Parliament.
However it seems that between the lines there is more to be read ( as usual ).

Here's why.

a. IF the Pak army was never interested in this ; then they would never have sent senior officers to assess saudi requirements.

b. Gen Shareef has afterwards spent some time in POF and monitored them. This visit coincides with Saudi Request for ammo, or maybe Pakistan's offer to source ammo for the project if our forces were to be deployed.

c. The news of Saudi Arabia placing order for Al Khalid tanks also coincides with the same time frame.

d. If we look at Parliament's declaration closely, point 10 states Pakistan will provide all required assistance to Saudi Arabia if Saudi Arabia was threatened. Whereas there is no "definition" of threat neither is there an appointment of anyone who will decide what qualifies a threat.

e. Immediately after the parliament, the Army chief stated that the Conflict of Yemen could become a problem if it was allowed to prolong. Now why would the army chief give statements if the parliament was at all in driving seat ? . Secondly are we to believe that Army chief is giving statement without bothering to do anything about it ?. Surely not I suppose.

f. The declaration from the parliament does not mandate the government to seek parliament's approval if and when it decides that emergency has happened.

g. The only other major contributor to Yemen. i.e Egypt's Chief is in Islamabad surely on some agenda.

h. There is NO denying the fact, that the remittances from the Pakistani diaspora keep the country afloat. Pak government is no position to loose 60% of it's foreign exchange earnings.


Thus I am led to conclude that Pakistani Government wants to buy a little time and at least show that all possible diplomatic means were exhausted before going for full scale intervention.

I am also sensing that there is an apprehension from the Army to be deployed through out Yemen, or one to one combat. They would however agree to be deployed and tasked to hold a key southern city.
I think Pak Army OK with that option.

Again, this is only an opinion; I would like a more structured discussion.

 

[KingMamba]

There is much debate on what is going on in Yemen, and even more on the declaration from Pakistani Parliament.
However it seems that between the lines there is more to be read ( as usual ).

Here's why.

a. IF the Pak army was never interested in this ; then they would never have sent senior officers to assess saudi requirements.

b. Gen Shareef has afterwards spent some time in POF and monitored them. This visit coincides with Saudi Request for ammo, or maybe Pakistan's offer to source ammo for the project if our forces were to be deployed.

c. The news of Saudi Arabia placing order for Al Khalid tanks also coincides with the same time frame.

d. If we look at Parliament's declaration closely, point 10 states Pakistan will provide all required assistance to Saudi Arabia if Saudi Arabia was threatened. Whereas there is no "definition" of threat neither is there an appointment of anyone who will decide what qualifies a threat.

e. Immediately after the parliament, the Army chief stated that the Conflict of Yemen could become a problem if it was allowed to prolong. Now why would the army chief give statements if the parliament was at all in driving seat ? . Secondly are we to believe that Army chief is giving statement without bothering to do anything about it ?. Surely not I suppose.

f. The declaration from the parliament does not mandate the government to seek parliament's approval if and when it decides that emergency has happened.

g. The only other major contributor to Yemen. i.e Egypt's Chief is in Islamabad surely on some agenda.

h. There is NO denying the fact, that the remittances from the Pakistani diaspora keep the country afloat. Pak government is no position to loose 60% of it's foreign exchange earnings.


Thus I am led to conclude that Pakistani Government wants to buy a little time and at least show that all possible diplomatic means were exhausted before going for full scale intervention.

I am also sensing that there is an apprehension from the Army to be deployed through out Yemen, or one to one combat. They would however agree to be deployed and tasked to hold a key southern city.
I think Pak Army OK with that option.

Again, this is only an opinion; I would like a more structured discussion.

One of the few Pakistanis who has sense, Saudi supposed treatment to Pakistani workers aside can any Pakistani who is cheering resolution to not help Saudis be willing to replace said remittances out of their pocket if Saudis begin a crackdown on Pakistani workers? I suppose you will @Pakistani Exile, Is the maintenance of those jobs not in Pakistan's interest? I guess not.

Second your point about exhausting diplomatic options (sinnerman), I agree with this assessment the point is this resolution is just a time pass. With the military making the real foreign policy decisions this resolution can be multiplied 10 times and will not be worth anything if and imo when the PA brass deems it necessary to intervene.

Thirdly no doubt Pakistan does not want to send its own troops to do the fighting and should not no matter what, but if the Saudis need officers to plan the ground incursion than that is the only option that Pakistan should be more amenable too. Even holding a key city with Pakistan's own troops is out of the question, they do not even speak the language how will they maintain law and order?

As for other things Pakistan could possibly gain, one is a political card on Indian workers in the GCC which can come into play in the future (also mentioned on a thread here posted few days before). Second is economic benefits through debt reduction, Saudis have a lot of hard cash any situation where Pakistani troops or officers are being put on the ground needs to involve up front payment before one boot leaves Pakistan for said mission. This should be non negotiable.

As for military support against Indian through their advanced systems that has been mentioned a few times before by some posters recently, I believe that is both unrealistic and unlikely to happen even if they agree to it. Quite frankly it is even unnecessary imo.

 

[Kabira]

One of the few Pakistanis who has sense, Saudi supposed treatment to Pakistani workers aside can any Pakistani who is cheering resolution to not help Saudis be willing to replace said remittances out of their pocket if Saudis begin a crackdown on Pakistani workers? I suppose you will @Pakistani Exile, Is the maintenance of those jobs not in Pakistan's interest? I guess not.

.

Why would SA do that? I doubt Pakistan signed any agreement to send troops anywhere SA wished.

 

[Sinnerman108]

One of the few Pakistanis who has sense, Saudi supposed treatment to Pakistani workers aside can any Pakistani who is cheering resolution to not help Saudis be willing to replace said remittances out of their pocket if Saudis begin a crackdown on Pakistani workers? I suppose you will @Pakistani Exile, Is the maintenance of those jobs not in Pakistan's interest? I guess not.

Second your point about exhausting diplomatic options (sinnerman), I agree with this assessment the point is this resolution is just a time pass. With the military making the real foreign policy decisions this resolution can be multiplied 10 times and will not be worth anything if and imo when the PA brass deems it necessary to intervene.

Thirdly no doubt Pakistan does not want to send its own troops to do the fighting and should not no matter what, but if the Saudis need officers to plan the ground incursion than that is the only option that Pakistan should be more amenable too. Even holding a key city with Pakistan's own troops is out of the question, they do not even speak the language how will they maintain law and order?

As for other things Pakistan could possibly gain, one is a political card on Indian workers in the GCC which can come into play in the future (also mentioned on a thread here posted few days before). Second is economic benefits through debt reduction, Saudis have a lot of hard cash any situation where Pakistani troops or officers are being put on the ground needs to involve up front payment before one boot leaves Pakistan for said mission. This should be non negotiable.

As for military support against Indian through their advanced systems that has been mentioned a few times before by some posters recently, I believe that is both unrealistic and unlikely to happen even if they agree to it. Quite frankly it is even unnecessary imo.

Indeed, if the conflict expands to such proportions, then that will be IT.

 

[HRK]

There is much debate on what is going on in Yemen, and even more on the declaration from Pakistani Parliament.
However it seems that between the lines there is more to be read ( as usual ).

Here's why.

a. IF the Pak army was never interested in this ; then they would never have sent senior officers to assess saudi requirements.

b. Gen Shareef has afterwards spent some time in POF and monitored them. This visit coincides with Saudi Request for ammo, or maybe Pakistan's offer to source ammo for the project if our forces were to be deployed.

c. The news of Saudi Arabia placing order for Al Khalid tanks also coincides with the same time frame.

d. If we look at Parliament's declaration closely, point 10 states Pakistan will provide all required assistance to Saudi Arabia if Saudi Arabia was threatened. Whereas there is no "definition" of threat neither is there an appointment of anyone who will decide what qualifies a threat.

e. Immediately after the parliament, the Army chief stated that the Conflict of Yemen could become a problem if it was allowed to prolong. Now why would the army chief give statements if the parliament was at all in driving seat ? . Secondly are we to believe that Army chief is giving statement without bothering to do anything about it ?. Surely not I suppose.

f. The declaration from the parliament does not mandate the government to seek parliament's approval if and when it decides that emergency has happened.

g. The only other major contributor to Yemen. i.e Egypt's Chief is in Islamabad surely on some agenda.

h. There is NO denying the fact, that the remittances from the Pakistani diaspora keep the country afloat. Pak government is no position to loose 60% of it's foreign exchange earnings.


Thus I am led to conclude that Pakistani Government wants to buy a little time and at least show that all possible diplomatic means were exhausted before going for full scale intervention.

I am also sensing that there is an apprehension from the Army to be deployed through out Yemen, or one to one combat. They would however agree to be deployed and tasked to hold a key southern city.
I think Pak Army OK with that option.

Again, this is only an opinion; I would like a more structured discussion.

Relax buddy not even Saudi are going in ..... so just wait for peaceful solution by Diplomatic Intervention

- Houtis can't rule the Yemen all by their own & their survival as an armed rebellion group depend on the foreign assistance which will be difficult for them to get on permanent basis for longer period of time.

- Its was an internal power struggle which was exploited by external players so both of these player would have to retreat from their current positions for the sake of their 'own interests' and in the interest of the region.

- Presence of Armed groups particularly Al-Qaeda & ISIS in Yemen call for the deployment a strong International military force under the mandate of UN to restore Law & Order in the country. Iraq or Syria like situation can not be allowed to prevail in Yemen.

- Interim political setup which can gather wide scale political consensus at National level is the only solution to the Yemen's current problem.

 

[KingMamba]

Why would SA do that? I doubt Pakistan signed any agreement to send troops anywhere SA wished.

Why have the Saudis not yet sent troops into Yemen? They are waiting for other countries that have more experience in the type of terrain to help out, despite barking done by Iranians against the PA both they and the Saudis know that the PA has more experience in this regard. Hence the request for assistance, now if Pakistan does not send any assistance then I agree with @Desert Fox 's assessment in the other thread that their operation is pretty much dead before it began. Maybe the Egyptians send people but they call Yemen their Vietnam due to history so perhaps not.

Maybe Saudis decide to go in by themselves it is a possibility but it will be hundreds of times harder for them to do anything since their army is not prepared for that type of environment, from not having fought a war in years to jumping into a war in the mountains? Disaster waiting to happen. Now if I was the Saudis and countries who I consider my allies refuse to help and my whole operation is not only destroyed but Houthis take the rest of Yemen I would be pissed the **** off and with good reason, remember not too long ago they gave Pakistan $1-2B to shore up the reserves when other supposed Pakistani allies did not. So how do you think they will react? They will not miss Pakistani workers and Indians will gladly jump in to make up for any shortfall.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Relax buddy not even Saudi are going in ..... so just wait for peaceful solution by Diplomatic Intervention

- Houtis can't rule the Yemen all by their own & their survival as an armed rebellion group depend on the foreign assistance which will be difficult for them to get on permanent basis for longer period of time.

- Its was an internal power struggle which was exploited by external players so both of these player would have to retreat from their current positions for the sake of their 'own interests' and in the interest of the region.

- Presence of Armed groups particularly Al-Qaeda & ISIS in Yemen call for the deployment a strong International military force under the mandate of UN to restore Law & Order in the country. Iraq or Syria like situation can not be allowed to prevail in Yemen.

- Interim political setup which can gather wide scale political consensus at National level is the only solution to the Yemen's current problem.

Well, I have a different take on that matter. I will leave that aside for now.

What I do see is there has been a Saudi Vs Iran war since decades.

With Syria / Iran, Saudi Arabia is engaged in north and north west.

With Yemen in south, Saudi Arabia will be stretched to limits.

Iran had everything to gain, all they did was ignite Yemen.

Now, both Yemen and Syrian diaspora is present in Saudi Arabia is huge numbers.
Any action on Yemen will at some time lead to "collateral strike" or maybe a large scale loss of life.
Thus provoking the diaspora and causing resentment.

Iran has everything to gain here and nothing to loose !

 

[HRK]

Iran has everything to gain here and nothing to loose !

Iranian will lose nothing because the have no stakes in Yemen and Saudis will lose (if they mishandle the situation) because they have stakes in Yemen, therefore I am saying a 'Hard solution is a no solution for this problem' .... Saudi just have to deny or minimize the Iranian gains in Yemen, & as of now the only gain of Iran from this situation are Houthis.

Therefore use diplomacy & backdoor channel negotiations with Houthis (as per reports Ali Abdullah Saleh faction was in contact of KSA till recently) should be first priority.

 

[Desert Fox]

Why have the Saudis not yet sent troops into Yemen? They are waiting for other countries that have more experience in the type of terrain to help out, despite barking done by Iranians against the PA both they and the Saudis know that the PA has more experience in this regard. Hence the request for assistance, now if Pakistan does not send any assistance then I agree with @Desert Fox 's assessment in the other thread that their operation is pretty much dead before it began. Maybe the Egyptians send people but they call Yemen their Vietnam due to history so perhaps not.

Maybe Saudis decide to go in by themselves it is a possibility but it will be hundreds of times harder for them to do anything since their army is not prepared for that type of environment, from not having fought a war in years to jumping into a war in the mountains? Disaster waiting to happen. Now if I was the Saudis and countries who I consider my allies refuse to help and my whole operation is not only destroyed but Houthis take the rest of Yemen I would be pissed the **** off and with good reason, remember not too long ago they gave Pakistan $1-2B to shore up the reserves when other supposed Pakistani allies did not. So how do you think they will react? They will not miss Pakistani workers and Indians will gladly jump in to make up for any shortfall.

Not only are they not experienced in that kind of warfare but i don't think they have the stomach for taking casualties.