Pakistan turning screws on Afghanistan

[pakistani342]

@A-Team, below is an article published by retired Pakistani diplomat (in an Indian paper) -- If you want to know what the GHQ thinks, I'd suggest you read it here.

I hate to say it -- the GHQ is going to unleash a whirlwind in Afghanistan, Pakistan will get singed too -- but I think the thinking to "level Afghanistan (the gains since 2001)" is taking hold.

Before you replay how regional cooperation can do this or that -- Afghanistan's only reality is:
1. What the GHQ thinks and
2. Whether the GHQ can act on its thinking

All else on what can be, could be, should be is sadly irrelevant.

...

The establishment — military brass and intelligence apparatchiks — has been peeved, badly stung, by the Afghan government’s open and ‘blatant’ hobnobbing and flirtation with Pakistan’s arch rival, India. For years since the Americans hunkered down in Afghanistan, Islamabad has watched with sheer angst the rising curve of Indo-Afghanistan co-operation. Modi’s high-visibility, media-focused engagements in Afghanistan last month — dedicating a newly built dam in Herat and inaugurating the new parliament building in Kabul — were as good as hard evidence for Pakistan’s policy makers that Kabul was ‘sleeping with the enemy.’ Afghanistan has been seen by Pakistan’s omnipotent military establishment, traditionally, as its bailiwick, its backyard that mustn’t be open to any outsider’s poaching. The old logic for it was that Afghanistan provided Pakistan the much-needed ‘strategic depth’ against India. Pakistan readily became the fulcrum of the organised ‘jihad’ against the Russians out of the same consideration, i.e. it must be seen as a genuine guardian of Afghanistan’s interest.

... Hamid Karzai was a huge disappointment to Islamabad because he, despite his years in Pakistan as a refugee, not only challenged Pakistan’s proclivity to treat Afghanistan as its turf, embarked on flirtation with Delhi, garnering benefits from Pakistan’s rival in spades.

Ashraf Ghani, Karzai’s successor, was expected to be more even-handed between Islamabad and Delhi — and his initial gestures to Islamabad were reassuring — but he, too, seems to have gravitated, daringly and, to Pakistan’s key policy planners provocatively, to Delhi so much so that he has the gall to reopen the old and settled issue of the boundary with Pakistan. Islamabad — GHQ and its brass, to be precise — thinks time is now to nip the ‘evil’ of Ghani in the bud and call his bluff early. His sin of consorting with India at the expense of Pakistan’s core interests is unpardonable in the eyes of Pakistani pundits.

 

[Menace2Society]

What screws are turning? I don't see anything turning. I only see rudderless and blind Pak foreign policy. Weak to the core and not being able to identify friend from foe.

Its time technocrats in Pakistan took over and introduced some logic into this absolute mess of a situation.

 

[litman]

pak is up against india, america and corrupt pro indian afghan govt in afghanistan so there is no chance for pak to have a friendly relations with afghanistan. india and america will do everything to destabilize pakistan through namak haram afghans.

 

[A-Team]

@A-Team, below is an article published by retired Pakistani diplomat (in an Indian paper) -- If you want to know what the GHQ thinks, I'd suggest you read it here.

I hate to say it -- the GHQ is going to unleash a whirlwind in Afghanistan, Pakistan will get singed too -- but I think the thinking to "level Afghanistan (the gains since 2001)" is taking hold.

Before you replay how regional cooperation can do this or that -- Afghanistan's only reality is:
1. What the GHQ thinks and
2. Whether the GHQ can act on its thinking

All else on what can be, could be, should be is sadly irrelevant.

...

The establishment — military brass and intelligence apparatchiks — has been peeved, badly stung, by the Afghan government’s open and ‘blatant’ hobnobbing and flirtation with Pakistan’s arch rival, India. For years since the Americans hunkered down in Afghanistan, Islamabad has watched with sheer angst the rising curve of Indo-Afghanistan co-operation. Modi’s high-visibility, media-focused engagements in Afghanistan last month — dedicating a newly built dam in Herat and inaugurating the new parliament building in Kabul — were as good as hard evidence for Pakistan’s policy makers that Kabul was ‘sleeping with the enemy.’ Afghanistan has been seen by Pakistan’s omnipotent military establishment, traditionally, as its bailiwick, its backyard that mustn’t be open to any outsider’s poaching. The old logic for it was that Afghanistan provided Pakistan the much-needed ‘strategic depth’ against India. Pakistan readily became the fulcrum of the organised ‘jihad’ against the Russians out of the same consideration, i.e. it must be seen as a genuine guardian of Afghanistan’s interest.

... Hamid Karzai was a huge disappointment to Islamabad because he, despite his years in Pakistan as a refugee, not only challenged Pakistan’s proclivity to treat Afghanistan as its turf, embarked on flirtation with Delhi, garnering benefits from Pakistan’s rival in spades.

Ashraf Ghani, Karzai’s successor, was expected to be more even-handed between Islamabad and Delhi — and his initial gestures to Islamabad were reassuring — but he, too, seems to have gravitated, daringly and, to Pakistan’s key policy planners provocatively, to Delhi so much so that he has the gall to reopen the old and settled issue of the boundary with Pakistan. Islamabad — GHQ and its brass, to be precise — thinks time is now to nip the ‘evil’ of Ghani in the bud and call his bluff early. His sin of consorting with India at the expense of Pakistan’s core interests is unpardonable in the eyes of Pakistani pundits.

Fair enough... let's for the sake of argumentation list a couple of bullet points where GHQ can really hurt Afghans.
Of course we are talking about scenarios, where best case would GHQ pivoting its current policies and worst case be continuing with the same outlook and increasing the pressure.

- Refugees

- Transit route

- Continuing to support proxies

I have listed a couple, do you have any other that comes to your mind? Based on those points we can then further argue if Pakistan under current changing geo-political recalibration can mortally hurt Afghanistan and whether its time for Afghanistan to call Pakistan's bluff.

 

[pakistani342]

Fair enough... let's for the sake of argumentation list a couple of bullet points where GHQ can really hurt Afghans.
Of course we are talking about scenarios, where best case would GHQ pivoting its current policies and worst case be continuing with the same outlook and increasing the pressure.

- Refugees

- Transit route

- Continuing to support proxies

I have listed a couple, do you have any other that comes to your mind? Based on those points we can then further argue if Pakistan under current changing geo-political recalibration can mortally hurt Afghanistan and whether its time for Afghanistan to call Pakistan's bluff.

I'd say that is pretty much it and:
1. of course close access to Pakistan for Afghans-- 50,000 Afghans seek services in Pakistan every day.
2. Also the withdrawal of skilled workers from Pakistan.

Again -- the primary burden on the Afghan state is by Afghanistan itself -- this may be the straw the breaks the camel's back.

Also coercive diplomacy in the Muslim world -- Pakistan has a lot of cards with the Gulf countries, Turkey, Malaysia etc.

 

[A-Team]

I'd say that is pretty much it and:
1. of course close access to Pakistan for Afghans-- 50,000 Afghans seek services in Pakistan every day.
2. Also the withdrawal of skilled workers from Pakistan.

Again -- the primary burden on the Afghan state is by Afghanistan itself -- this may be the straw the breaks the camel's back.

Also coercive diplomacy in the Muslim world -- Pakistan has a lot of cards with the Gulf countries, Turkey, Malaysia etc.

Frankly the more we put it on paper the more one realizes that Pakistan's options of mortally wounding Afghanistan is looking rather hollow at this moment in time comparing to lets say when the Soviets were in the country.

Lets us remember that US considers AF security as its security " Amb Olson", every country in the region consider AF security and stability vital to their interests including Pakistan's most important partner China.

Refugees :

Estimates put the Afghan refugees at around 1-2 million, all departed at once would stress Afghan resources. Remember Pakistani is actually using the refugee issue in brinkmanship with not only AF but also in the greater scheme of things with the US. I remember pretty well how WFP successfully helped the AF state with numbers for larger than this. In addition to help from other partners countries US has heavy influence with UN agencies and thus can be used in the shorter the medium terms to help with the sudden onslaught of these deported refugees.

In the same time it will deprive Pakistan an important bargaining cheap, and don't forget that these refugees have been used as a strategic reserve of foot soldiers for the Talis and other proxy groups. So when Pakistan says it will deport all of them starting next month, I am confident that Pakistan is bluffing, and actually it's in the Afghan interest that these refugees be deported asap.

Transit route :

I think NUG has been quite busy in finding alternative routes to that of Pakistan, ( there has been 27 percent degrees of goods egressing from Pakistan in the recent months ) routes to central asian states, the Iranian routes though not mature but if all the transit is stopped via Pakistan, it will provide a breathing space for Afghan goods egressing and ingressing. Will it be tough for Afghans, Yes! will it be mortal No! Pakistan will lose one of its export markets to Iranian and other countries.

Proxies :

Pak proxies are actually operating at its full throttle without strategic imbalance, not sure how much else can they throw at the ANSF.

Muslim world :

AF is also on excellent terms with those countries that PK has relationship with and considering how much influence the US has over them, I doubt they will screw up their relationship with AF when AF is a strategic partner to the US.

It may just be that the NUG who has tried hard to court GHQ for a year or so, has finally decided to call Pakistan's bluff and the Torkham episode which has acted like rallying point for Afghans across the country maybe the first step in that direction.



Ok these are some rough thoughts, needs more discussion and cleaning up of the argumentation.....


http://mfa.gov.af/Content/files/BSA ENGLISH AFG.pdf

Here is a quote from the US-AF strategic agreement, in case Pakistan escalates this into a full blown hostilities

3. On a regular basis, the Parties shall consult on potential political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures that could form part of an appropriate response in the event of such external aggression or the threat of external aggression against Afghanistan. Consultations shall seek to develop a list of political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures. 4. In the event of external aggression or the threat of external aggression against Afghanistan, the Parties shall hold consultations on an urgent basis to develop and implement an appropriate response, including, as may be mutually determined, consideration of available political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures on the list developed pursuant to paragraph 3, in accordance with their respective constitutional procedures.

 

[somebozo]

If Afghanistan wants any concessions from Pakistan then Pakistan needs to take more aggressive and confronting posture....Every time there is a terrorist attack in Pakistan from operational bases in Afghanistan...we must raise it to the highest office on international political stage....

 

[A-Team]

If Afghanistan wants any concessions from Pakistan then Pakistan needs to take more aggressive and confronting posture....Every time there is a terrorist attack in Pakistan from operational bases in Afghanistan...we must raise it to the highest office on international political stage....

I think Pakistan's case on the international stage vis-a-vis terror groups operating from AF is pretty poor when the entire leadership of Talis who are killing international soldiers is in Pakistan and being backed up by the GHQ.

 

[somebozo]

I think Pakistan's case on the international stage vis-a-vis terror groups operating from AF is pretty poor when the entire leadership of Talis who are killing international soldiers is in Pakistan and being backed up by the GHQ.

But they jumped over from Afghanistan via the porus border..and it is the responsibility of Afghan and International security forces to control the border on their side.

 

[A-Team]

But they jumped over from Afghanistan via the porus border..and it is the responsibility of Afghan and International security forces to control the border on their side.

I think we are referring to two separate things here, @pakistani342 raised a point in the original post as to how GHQ is dead sit on pressurizing Afghanistan and has no plans on pivoting her policies vis-a-vis Afghanistan. We are discussing on what are the possible pressure points from Pakistani side and what can AF do to counter them.

And the more I put these paper the more it sounds that Pakistan's option of mortally wounding AF is actually pretty limited in the current geo-political considerations.

 

[pakistani342]

I think we are referring to two separate things here, @pakistani342 raised a point in the original post as to how GHQ is dead sit on pressurizing Afghanistan and has no plans on pivoting her policies vis-a-vis Afghanistan. We are discussing on what are the possible pressure points from Pakistani side and what can AF do to counter them.

And the more I put these paper the more it sounds that Pakistan's option of mortally wounding AF is actually pretty limited in the current geo-political considerations.

I think "mortally wounding" is a bit of a harsh word. The question is does Afghanistan want to have another lost generation that misses out on opportunities.

The state can still collapse but primarily due to internal pressures -- the Pakistani pressures may just be the tipping point.

For example Chabahar is not a natural water deep sea port -- it cannot relieve Iran's shipping needs let alone Afghanistan (and by extension India). What other routes does Afghanistan have?

As there are now other crises -- Afghanistan will get less money released despite whatever commitments are made.

Essentially think Gaza -- one difference is Gaza has a highly educated population.

 

[Mitro]

Pakistan should act on solid information on TTP position in AF and start bombing them no need to give any clarification to the world they can act for self defense and destroy the terrorist.

 

[pakistani342]

Frankly the more we put it on paper the more one realizes that Pakistan's options of mortally wounding Afghanistan is looking rather hollow at this moment in time comparing to lets say when the Soviets were in the country.

Lets us remember that US considers AF security as its security " Amb Olson", every country in the region consider AF security and stability vital to their interests including Pakistan's most important partner China.

Refugees :

Estimates put the Afghan refugees at around 1-2 million, all departed at once would stress Afghan resources. Remember Pakistani is actually using the refugee issue in brinkmanship with not only AF but also in the greater scheme of things with the US. I remember pretty well how WFP successfully helped the AF state with numbers for larger than this. In addition to help from other partners countries US has heavy influence with UN agencies and thus can be used in the shorter the medium terms to help with the sudden onslaught of these deported refugees.

In the same time it will deprive Pakistan an important bargaining cheap, and don't forget that these refugees have been used as a strategic reserve of foot soldiers for the Talis and other proxy groups. So when Pakistan says it will deport all of them starting next month, I am confident that Pakistan is bluffing, and actually it's in the Afghan interest that these refugees be deported asap.

Transit route :

I think NUG has been quite busy in finding alternative routes to that of Pakistan, ( there has been 27 percent degrees of goods egressing from Pakistan in the recent months ) routes to central asian states, the Iranian routes though not mature but if all the transit is stopped via Pakistan, it will provide a breathing space for Afghan goods egressing and ingressing. Will it be tough for Afghans, Yes! will it be mortal No! Pakistan will lose one of its export markets to Iranian and other countries.

Proxies :

Pak proxies are actually operating at its full throttle without strategic imbalance, not sure how much else can they throw at the ANSF.

Muslim world :

AF is also on excellent terms with those countries that PK has relationship with and considering how much influence the US has over them, I doubt they will screw up their relationship with AF when AF is a strategic partner to the US.

It may just be that the NUG who has tried hard to court GHQ for a year or so, has finally decided to call Pakistan's bluff and the Torkham episode which has acted like rallying point for Afghans across the country maybe the first step in that direction.



Ok these are some rough thoughts, needs more discussion and cleaning up of the argumentation.....


http://mfa.gov.af/Content/files/BSA ENGLISH AFG.pdf

Here is a quote from the US-AF strategic agreement, in case Pakistan escalates this into a full blown hostilities

3. On a regular basis, the Parties shall consult on potential political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures that could form part of an appropriate response in the event of such external aggression or the threat of external aggression against Afghanistan. Consultations shall seek to develop a list of political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures. 4. In the event of external aggression or the threat of external aggression against Afghanistan, the Parties shall hold consultations on an urgent basis to develop and implement an appropriate response, including, as may be mutually determined, consideration of available political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures on the list developed pursuant to paragraph 3, in accordance with their respective constitutional procedures.

Excellent -- I hope we can have more dialogs like this -- point <----> counter point === remember we're not trying to win an argument here -- trying to expand our knowledge base.

I'll try to respond when I have some time.

 

[My-Analogous]

I think we are referring to two separate things here, @pakistani342 raised a point in the original post as to how GHQ is dead sit on pressurizing Afghanistan and has no plans on pivoting her policies vis-a-vis Afghanistan. We are discussing on what are the possible pressure points from Pakistani side and what can AF do to counter them.

And the more I put these paper the more it sounds that Pakistan's option of mortally wounding AF is actually pretty limited in the current geo-political considerations.

Come on accept that with the help of US and its high tech equipment along with satellite fail to do the job and asking Pakistan to do their job, it kind of making fun by them self. We are making border management and then you guys saying we are not accepting border. It shows your commitment to fight terrorism. Don't be hypocrites and tell the world that due to US we don't want to resolve our issue and US want our land to to put check on Russia and China.

 

[Rasengan]

Refugees :

I hate to break your dream world but currently your fellow citizens are leaving Afghanistan in waves. Your incompetent hashish government is too focus on corruption and its own interests rather than serving the people. Another 2 million refugees returning back would cripple your economy and their will be a shortage of resources. The world cannot subsidize your economy forever and the process of deporting your comrades has started.

Transit route :

How will Pakistan lose its export market. If Iran wants to tap into the Chinese Energy market then it needs Pakistan not the Afghans. When those same trucks going to Iran are torched by the Taliban then that 27% figure will be dwindled and then you will be on your knees begging us to show mercy. Put your money where you mouth is and stop trading with Pakistan. I want your country to attack Pakistan and then we can show you true destruction. Time is clicking anyway the Taliban are becoming more stronger.

Proxies :

Pak proxies are actually operating at its full throttle without strategic imbalance, not sure how much else can they throw at the ANSF.

If Pakistan unleashed its full might and used his proxies properly then Kabul will fall in a day. Thank your lucky stars that you have some international troops in your country, because your hashish army is dying in the hundreds each month and thousands are deserting.