Great game unfolds
G Parthasarathy
The members of Saudi Arabias royal family are legendary for their discretion and aversion to making strong statements. The monarch is, after all, not only the ruler of the kingdom but also bears the title and responsibility of being the Custodian of Islams holiest sites. Within the closely knit royal family, Prince Turki Faisal can be regarded as a figure who enjoys respect because of his educational background, his diplomatic abilities and his stewardship of the kingdoms security services. As the youngest son of former King Faisal and nephew of king Abdullah, Prince Turki was head of the kingdoms Al Mukhbarat al-Aamah (General Intelligence Directorate) and has been Saudi Arabias Ambassador to the UK, Ireland and also the US.
With his educational background of academic studies in Princeton and London universities and as a classmate of Mr Bill Clinton in Georgetown University, Prince Turki is regarded as a Saudi royal well disposed towards and well connected in the US. Moreover, as head of the Saudi Intelligence, Prince Turki realised that it was not in the kingdoms interest to patronise the recalcitrant Taliban leader Mullah Omar, who arbitrarily rebuffed his efforts to get him to expel Osama bin Laden from Afghanistan during a stormy meeting in 1998 which the Prince had with Mullah Omar in Kandahar.
Prince Turki, however, surprised an audience in Riyadh last month by characterising American policies in Afghan- istan as inept, averring: The way this (US) Administration has dealt with President Hamid Karzai beggars disbelief and amazement. He advised the US Administration to hunt down terrorists on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and get out and let Afghan people deal with their problems.
Saudi Arabia is not alone getting exasperated by American flip-flops in Afghanistan. Like India and Afghan- istans Central Asian neighbours Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Russia is deeply concerned about any prospects of the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan. Moreover, in recent years, as the Taliban expanded its control over territories in southern Afghanistan, drug smuggling across Afghanistans borders with Iran and its Central Asian neighbours has shot up, with Russia emerging as the worlds largest per capita consumer of heroin. Over 30,000 Russians die every year from heroin addiction and another 80,000 experiment with heroin for the first time.
Though Russias President Dmitry Medvedev and Mr Obama agreed to closely cooperate last year, the Russians allege that they receive precious little by way of American cooperation in dealing with the drug menace. Iran, which faces an equally serious problem of heroin addiction, has lost hundreds of its law-enforcement personnel in shootouts with drug smugglers operating across its borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The Obama Administrations National Security Doctrine speaks of building a stable, multi-dimensional relationship with Russia, based on mutual interests. It also asserts: We will seek greater partnership with Russia in confronting violent extremism, especially in Afghanistan. Sixty per cent of supplies for American forces in Afghanistan comprising fuel, food and some equipment are now routed through Pakistan, with around another 30 per cent coming by train through Russia and Afghanistans neighbouring Central Asian republics. A wider US-Russian strategic dialogue could seek to increase American supplies for its forces in Afghanistan via Russia and Central Asia, thus reducing the strategic salience of the supply routes through Pakistan. One of the major reasons why Pakistan brazenly continues to support the Taliban is that it knows that American dependence on supply routes through its territory is so large, that there is precious little the US and its Nato allies will do to eliminate terrorist havens on its soil. Reduction of dependence on Pakistan for sustaining operations in Afghanistan is, therefore, crucial in coming years.
It is time India resorts to some innovative diplomacy to bring together regional and interested powers to enable Afghanistan to adopt a policy that King Nadir Shah advocated in 1931, when he proclaimed, Afghanistan must maintain friendly relations with its neighbours as well as all friendly powers that are not opposed to its a national interest. Afghanistan must give its neighbours assurances of its friendly attitudes while safeguarding the right of reciprocity. During World War I, Amir Habibullah Khan steered a path of neutrality for Afghanistan, despite pressures to back Turkey. Afghanistan joined the League of Nations in 1934, waiting until the Soviet Union joined, so as not to appear to be taking sides in favour of the UK. In 1937, Kabul concluded the Saadabad pact, a non-aggression treaty with Iran, Iraq and Turkey. King Zahir Shahs Government proclaimed its official and legal neutrality during World War II.
Afghanistans problems are, even today, exacerbated by developments and rivalries beyond its borders. Both Russia and China would welcome a return to stability and an end to Taliban-style extremism in the country. They are, however, holding back from providing whole-hearted support for the US-led Nato forces in Afghanistan, because of suspicions about a long-term American military presence in Afghanistan, undermining their interests in Central Asia. Iran, which has extended significant economic assistance to the Karzai Government and was in the forefront of opposition to the Taliban leadership, shares similar concerns about the USs presence in Afghanistan.
India and Pakistan likewise share mutual suspicions about the role of each other in Afghanistan. The Bonn Conference saw a request from participants to the UN to take measures to guarantee national sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of Afghanistan, as well as the non-interference by countries in Afghanistans internal affairs. This is possible only, if in the words of Indian diplomat C R Gharekhan and former US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Karl Inderfurth, the international community recognises that to attain the long-term goal of a peaceful and stable Afghanistan, it must have better and more reliable relations with its neighbours and near neighbours, including Pakistan, Iran, China, India and Russia.
India should supplement its economic assistance with a diplomatic effort that enables countries in Afghanistans neighbourhood to ensure that Afghanistans territory is not utilised to undermine the security of other countries, near and far, while guaranteeing observance of the principle of non-interference, in its internal affairs. One hopes that in the meantime, the Americans will get their act together in dealing with the threats Afghanistan faces from across its disputed border with Pakistan, the Durand Line. Virtually no Pashtun in either Afghanistan or Pakistan recognises the Durand Line as the international border.
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