Pakistan survival without Kashmir???

[indiapakistanfriendship]

If you suck our rivers dry, we will have no choice but to initiate total war.

Thanx be our guest

 

[MOSABJA]

I have not done the cost benifit analysis, but from seeing the terrain any one can understand why such a project would stand as an enginnering marvel. If it were feasable in the first place, whay hasn't your government or any independent source or thinktanks have any feasability analysis. Such a project will require decades to complete and what if India sees it as a threat to starve its people and stops the river befor you could even start it, say we stop it for two years ,the two years which alone be not enough to finalise the design alnalysis on paper, what will happen in such scenario and what is your contingency plan to supply water for least two years.

Haha let me tell you feasibilty can be done secretly.As far as project is concerned with hard labour dams may not require DECADES it could be completed quickly.

Now as far as India starving Pakistan immediately I dont think so that they too even can do it since they only have projects on Chenab and Jhelum.

So far they have not even started feasibility of any project on Indus.So even if India comes to know of such a Sino pak Plan even then IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR US TO DIVERT RIVERS ON SHORT NOTICE.

But for India to divert Indus on short notice without the presence of any feasibility is impossible.

Yes constructing a dam across such a terrain is next only to rocket science in terms of civil engineering and cost, again I repeat if it were easy, it would have been done, do you think Pakistani establishment has for decades waited for your sudden awakening?

I think its not rocket science .no body know exact terrain .There could be place for dams .There is no report.But China has already built a barrage on Sultej and has completed its feasibilty on any sort od dam on sutlej.

Building a dam is not some thing very difficult.

Now as far as sudden awakening is concerned .We didnt bother up till now since India had been observing the Indus water treaty.But since now India has started violation by Wullar ,Kishenganga and Baglihar .NOW WE SHOULD START THINKING.

What is the loan you are talking about , such a project will requires billions, and loss of life, you can even talk to some army engineers on your side as to how difficult it is to even lay roads in such terrain. You are assuming China will consider your request, but popoint me out what will be the benifits thet will they wil realise,As far as I seeit they will gain only a more aggressive neighbour near their border and nothing else

First of all Dude.We are not asking them to give us their rivers we are merely asking them to get those river of OURS straight to us instead of them passing through India.

The population of that region is in hundreds so there is no loss of life.Aggressive neighbour.Well India is getting aggressive and becoming a police man of US and confronting China .

Now there is no FEASIBILTY and thus no such available estimate of Ammount .But once Pakistan completes Gwadar,Rekodiq and Thar coal we sill be financially able to do such a thing.

And Building tunnel is not an incredible feat.India too has built tunnel to divert Neelam.So why cant we.The wullar tunnel is 24 km.To divert Indus in such a way that it directly reached Pakistan .Tunnel of as long as 300 km might be required .
SO THE COST WILL NOT BE ASTRONOMICAL.

You don't have influence over China, but China has influence on you. Point me some instances where China on your behalf or on your beck and call has done anything against India. They did noy stand by you in any wars and what makes you think they will this time around when they have nothing to gain but a lot to loose.

Yes China has interests in Pakistan, no question about that, but the question is to what extent.As far as I see it they have already done enough for you by supplying technology and weapons , but expecting such a favour is way too out of the way for the interests you can offer them.

Now again China has an immense interests in pakistan and it will not allow Pakistan to starve.Do you think they would .Well their Oil supplies in future will pass through Pakistan instead of mallaca.

And why will Chinese bother.We are only asking them to give us OUR RIVER.we are no asking them to give us their river.

Yes I am not a Pakistani , neither is my view from Indian stand point. In fact you are being subjective while I have tried to be objective. Any rational mind your establishment will think in the sam lines as I do. Insted of going the long way around they would simply negotiate with India and thsi might even lead to end other conflicts and problems between us.

Negotiations .If India is serious then stop building Kishenganga,Baglihar and Wullar We areopen for talks
Now U r not a pakistani so you do not want pakistan to be self reliant.India always wants Pakistan to be on its toe.

Yes you will be a little brother to China as it serves your interests for the moment, however we are not americans whore as you point out to be. The relations we share are mutual and we pay for the superior technology we want, we are just a ally just like Russia and Chaina have their differences yet stick on to a blok when they find common interests.

Thats what I am saying.Its mutual interests.Chinese have ENORMOUS INTERESTS in Pakistan and so deos Pakistan.ANd believe me in 40 years of friendship we have not Conflicted on even a single issue.Pakistan and Chinese interests are PERFECTLY COHERENT
Cheers

 

[ak56]

India is always ready to divert the rivers. And I am pretty sure if we were in the same position we would do the same.

I only asked for a geniune source, not your opinion.

 

[ak56]

BTW, have such big rivers ever been diverted in history ?

 

[indiapakistanfriendship]

Haha let me tell you feasibilty can be done secretly.As far as project is concerned with hard labour dams may not require DECADES it could be completed quickly

How about think tanks , nws papers and expert comments , It is easy to perform a feasbility analysis by the media using experts.

The Idea you are proposing will require years to complete. The finalistation of draft plans and negotiations alone will take more than 3 years.

Now as far as India starving Pakistan immediately I dont think so that they too even can do it since they only have projects on Chenab and Jhelum.

It can be done, how about cutting off immediate supplies and then proceeding methodically

So far they have not even started feasibility of any project on Indus.So even if India comes to know of such a Sino pak Plan even then IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR US TO DIVERT RIVERS ON SHORT NOTICE.

But for India to divert Indus on short notice without the presence of any feasibility is impossible

Thogh difficult , it can be diverted before the project reaches half way .

I think its not rocket science .no body know exact terrain .There could be place for dams .There is no report.But China has already built a barrage on Sultej and has completed its feasibilty on any sort od dam on sutlej.

Building a dam is not some thing very difficult.

Ask any civil engineer worth his salt, he will tell you how difficult it is to build a dam across such hardened terrain.

It does not stop with building a dam alone but blasting a path across such huge hountainous terrain. Even if you can divert it , it has to be done through Aksai chin: not the ideal place to blast through.

Now as far as sudden awakening is concerned .We didnt bother up till now since India had been observing the Indus water treaty.But since now India has started violation by Wullar ,Kishenganga and Baglihar .NOW WE SHOULD START THINKING

Loads of Bollocks and ostriches.... Do you seriously want me to believe that Pakistani establishment had trusted India on such a big issue, it had never performed such analysis long befor you and I were born?

First of all Dude.We are not asking them to give us their rivers we are merely asking them to get those river of OURS straight to us instead of them passing through India.

Yes you are merely asking , but the problem is that it is expensive for them to provide to you.

The population of that region is in hundreds so there is no loss of life.Aggressive neighbour.Well India is getting aggressive and becoming a police man of US and confronting China

Yes Chinese leaders are sane enough to emphasize that we maintain staus quo and engage in dialouge rather then fight it out. They already have Taiwan problem and are focussing on their economy. The last thing they want is for us to completely go against them or become a full fledged US ally., which is not in their interest.
Indians are US policeman? This coming from you? prove me an instance where we acted as their stooge like the way you have been doing for decades.you psychologically require a big brother to protect you, while we dont need one, Thanx

Now there is no FEASIBILTY and thus no such available estimate of Ammount .But once Pakistan completes Gwadar,Rekodiq and Thar coal we sill be financially able to do such a thing.

Gwadhar is not the be all and end all of Pakistani economy, yes Gwadha will bring in prosperity but not to the extent you would like to beileve it to be and will not be alone to fund for every one of your dreams and whishes.

And Building tunnel is not an incredible feat.India too has built tunnel to divert Neelam.So why cant we.The wullar tunnel is 24 km.To divert Indus in such a way that it directly reached Pakistan .Tunnel of as long as 300 km might be required .
SO THE COST WILL NOT BE ASTRONOMICAL.

Again do try to look at the terrain and talk . The tunnel you are talking about will travel through aksai chin and the himalayan belt. this should give you and idea and you figure it for yourself.

Now again China has an immense interests in pakistan and it will not allow Pakistan to starve.Do you think they would .Well their Oil supplies in future will pass through Pakistan instead of mallaca.

And why will Chinese bother.We are only asking them to give us OUR RIVER.we are no asking them to give us their river.

Yes China has interests in Pakistan and they have seen to it by supplying you with military hardware, technology construction projects and investments etc, but don't ever expect them t cut an paste their landscape and undertake enormous efforts just because you want them to . Chinese are saner to beileve that India will not be so callous to starve Pakistan.

Negotiations .If India is serious then stop building Kishenganga,Baglihar and Wullar We areopen for talks
Now U r not a pakistani so you do not want pakistan to be self reliant.India always wants Pakistan to be on its toe.

We require hydel power and we are building it., building a dam does not signal that we will cut off when need be it.
As far as I am pakistani or not, why should I care whether you are self reliant or not, as far as I see it ,its an objective debate in which I am participating, Its impotant to see and analyse an issue in an objective POV rather then in a Pakistani POV.

Thats what I am saying.Its mutual interests.Chinese have ENORMOUS INTERESTS in Pakistan and so deos Pakistan.ANd believe me in 40 years of friendship we have not Conflicted on even a single issue.Pakistan and Chinese interests are PERFECTLY COHERENT
Cheers

China has interests in Pakistan and it is to mainly contain India. Though interests in Pakistan are important , they are nowhere near their major interests and objectives, your contribution is just a part of the sum product of their goals.

Why should you and China conflict, hy don't you rather see it this way In the past 40 years how many times have the chinese fought for you, despite all your friendhip can you influence China to put pressure on India over kashmir issue or any other issue for that matter. Heck even the US was more trustworthy in that they dared to sned their 7th fleet to join their attack against India during 1971 and in all other wars they had ensured that you receive ammo supplies through different clandestine ways and routes.

The fact of the matter is the relationship between China and Pakistan is nothing but real politik, you serve their interest and they help you by providing certain interests thats it.

cheers

 

[MOSABJA]

Chill up guy.

You can say what ever you want .Its just a proposal .I am not saying that hay there is gonna be a such an such project to be completed in this much time with this much cost completed from some where source.


No body knows what situation is gonna be in future.

Now as far as pakistans economic potential is concerned.Let me tell ye first thing that By only exploring 5 % of our country we have

1)Fourth largest coal reserves.
2)Fifth largest copper and gold reserves.


Now China despite having second largest coals imports 3-4 billion tons per year.If we develop our thar coal and export even 1 billion tons of coal per year out of 185 billion tons at a cost of 50 $ per ton then its enough to earn us 50 billion $ peryear.Will that be enough.

There is a potential of 60 billion $ transit through Gwadar.



So I was just saying that for your information.


Waht I am saying is that its better for India to OBEY INDUS WATER TREATY.

If not then

1)Pakistan will not itself die of thirst.

even a cat pounces on eyes when it has no option.

How can you expect Pakistan of no.t going to war OR asking Chinese to divert rivers if INIDA DOES SO

 

[Always Neutral]

Exactly. People here are saying why depend on China. I say to them, why let India continue to have the ability to strangulate us by cutting of our jugular vein? In case India starts running short for water, it WILL violate the treaty. We cannot allow our 170 million people to be at the mercy of India.

What we need to do is covertly fund the construction of a dam or reservoir in Chinese territory, where the river originates. Then from there, build a pipeline that passes through Aksai Chin, and brings the water into Pakistan via the northern areas. By doing it secretly, India cannot present any proof that Pakistan is violating the Indus Water Treaty. China is not part of it, and it has a right to do whatever it wants with water in it's own territory. Then we can claim that we are infact buying the water from China, when really we'll only be paying a little bit of transit fee.

Dear SS,

For someone who makes really solid and good posts this is really flakey and shakey. For the cost involved in diverting the rivers from India even if it was possible technically, will be more than a trillion dollars.

If Pakistan has that much loose change lying in its kitty why not build enough desalination plants and dams and not bother about the rivers in Kashmir.

Regards

 

[Always Neutral]

some people here can ridicule and disregard my statements all they want, but the fact of the matter is clear. if india attempts to divert the river, pakistan will resort to nuclear strikes. that is, if the useless UN fails to do anything about it.

Where did you get such a brain wave from ?

 

[Always Neutral]

Why are you acting like it's impossible? Have you carried out a cost-benefit analysis either? It was not done already because Pakistan was keeping it's end of the Indus Water Treaty, and India was keeping it's word too. But now with India violating the agreement by building those disputed dams/reservoirs, we can see which direction this is moving in. India is starting to get more and more arrogant and over ambitious by the day. I can guarentee you that if Pakistan takes not action within a decade, India will practically suck Pakistan's rivers dry to meet it's own needs.


This is why it is imperative, to do whatever it takes to gain water independence from India. Project will no doubt be expensive, but we must do something. Only a feasability study can tell if it is possible right now or not. If we cannot meet the entire cost, we can take a loan from China to build it.



Once again, what I am proposing is not rocket science. It's the construction of a simple dam/reservoir and a point in China and from there a simple pipeline to Pakistan, bypassing Indian Occupied Kashmir. And I am not saying China will fund it, Pakistan will, perhaps with the help of a Chinese loan. And believe it or not, China will seriously consider our request if we ask them. You Indians like to think Pakistan has no influence over any country in this world, but this is a matter of Pakistan's survival, something in which China itself has a massive stake.

You are not a Pakistani, so you cannot comprehend the sheer magnitude of the situation. You are seeing this through only the Indian POV, not Pakistan or China's. India is going to become America's **** in the region over the coming decades, and Pakistan will be China's little brother

Dear SS,

You know why no one has carried out a cost analysis ?

BECAUSE you don't carry out cost analysis of looney ideas !

China has got bigger problems to solve than to spend a trillion dollars giving aid to Pakistan for water. It can use the trillion dollars to beef up its armed forces and tell the US to get lost. Why spend it on Pakistan ?

By the way there is a big difference between a gas pipline and a water pipeline. The big difference is that one can be compressed that other cannot be.

Lastly India will mis-use the rivers whether Pakistan likes it or not and if Pakistan is wise it should start building schemes like dams, rain water harvesting and desalination plants instead of living in looney land of chinese help for diverting water.

Regards

 

[JK!]

BTW, have such big rivers ever been diverted in history ?

The only example I can think of is when the three gorges dam was being built in China and three rivers that joined together were diverted.

 

[Always Neutral]

The only example I can think of is when the three gorges dam was being built in China and three rivers that joined together were diverted.

Even 3 gorges dam did not try to pump water up 3000 meters so please read about the project ?



Regards

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Why is there the need for India to divert waters or prevent water from reaching Pakistan?

And why this huge speculation and wild thought on this issue?

Neither India nor China can divert these rivers since it is too gigantic a proposition that defies the nature of the terrain.

 

[JK!]

Even 3 gorges dam did not try to pump water up 3000 meters so please read about the project ?



Regards

I wasn't referring to pumping but a diversion of a river which is what ak56 asked about.

Care to provide an example yourself?

 

[MOSABJA]

Why is there the need for India to divert waters or prevent water from reaching Pakistan?

And why this huge speculation and wild thought on this issue?

Neither India nor China can divert these rivers since it is too gigantic a proposition that defies the nature of the terrain.

Why I am saying this is because


THE Indus Basin Water Council of Pakistan Chairman Zahoorul Hassan Dahir, who is also Coordinator of the World Water Council, has warned of the Indian mega-plan to make 52 new dams on the Western Rivers. He claimed that the plan not only involved four countries, two multinationals, an international NGO and three secret agencies including RAW. The plan is meant to destabilize Pakistan, and billions of dollars had been spent on it.

This plan is meant to reverse the Indus Basin Waters Treaty by giving to India the waters of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, on the headwaters of which India planned to build the new dams. It is urgently required that Pakistan should go to the International Court of Justice if it hopes to get the arbitration under the IWT revised. In fact, Pakistan should approach all international forums, including the United Nations, to get the arbitration invalidated. There is still sufficient time to do so, according to the Chairman and Coordinator, Mr Dahir. It is not at all clear why Pakistan has not already exercised this option when the present power and wheat crises can safely be ascribed to the Indian plan and its heavy spending on it. Already, 88 percent of tubewells and canals are down, and we are forced to import no less than 4 million tons of wheat to manage and avoid shortages similar to this year’s.

It should be noted by the Government of Pakistan that, as pointed out by Mr Dahir, that Clause 3 of the Indus Water Treaty does not allow India to take any water from the Western rivers, as it is intent on doing, and Pakistan had every right to insist on the complete implementation of the Treaty. Mr Dahir noted that India only engaged in negotiation on a subject when it already had something on ground, such as its willingness for the IWT arbitration clause to be invoked when it had already built the Baglihar Dam. If we show that we are ready to throw away our resources like this, then we would be cutting off our nose to spite our face. The government should be less free with our rightful resources in approaching international disputes.

 

[MIG_ACE]

Mosabja,
Acc to the Indus Basin Water Council , India has a "plan" of building dams on the said rivers.It hasn't built them already. So how do you ascribe any present wheat/water crises to India?? There's just an alleged "plan". Nothing has been built as of now. This is ridiculous.