Pakistan Should Invest in land-based Large Ship-Killer Missiles

[ChineseTiger1986]

The other issue is, will China wish to part with the whole package of technologies? If they are willing then the Shaheen-I or even its smaller siblings could be put to good use against a threat that we currently have not enough answer again.

Don't worry about China, sure we want to spread the ASBM technology to everyone. If Iran can possess it, then i am sure that Pakistan already possesses it as well.

 

[XYON]

Actually one does not necessarily need any satellite for the ship-killer missile strike. The Shaheen and Ghauri can be modified to aim at and strike certain coordinates at sea (CEP zones if you may) and these zones can be easily monitored by conventional land or sea based radars. If any of these forward zones are breached by enemy armada, we fire our missiles that air detonate over the target or targets hereby taking out the approaching enemy at sea. Since missiles have a high angle of approach compared to a cruise missile, ship defenses will also be in effective against the approaching projectile.

Secondly I am all for using mini-nukes for these systems as air detonation will cover more area in a CEP zone compared to conventional explosives. Also the resulting EMP from the blast can also render other accompanying ships dead at sea as it will burn their electronics and navigation systems. Secondly the purpose of MAD is enhancement of deterrence which after all is the MAIN purpose of having such a defense system. If missile defense and MAD can work on land between Pakistan and India, it can most certainly also work in this scenario.

 

[GUNS-N- ROSES]

Actually one does not necessarily need any satellite for the ship-killer missile strike. The Shaheen and Ghauri can be modified to aim at and strike certain coordinates at sea (CEP zones if you may) and these zones can be easily monitored by conventional land or sea based radars. If any of these forward zones are breached by enemy armada, we fire our missiles that air detonate over the target or targets hereby taking out the approaching enemy at sea. Since missiles have a high angle of approach compared to a cruise missile, ship defenses will also be in effective against the approaching projectile.

Secondly I am all for using mini-nukes for these systems as air detonation will cover more area in a CEP zone compared to conventional explosives. Also the resulting EMP from the blast can also render other accompanying ships dead at sea as it will burn their electronics and navigation systems. Secondly the purpose of MAD is enhancement of deterrence which after all is the MAIN purpose of having such a defense system. If missile defense and MAD can work on land between Pakistan and India, it can most certainly also work in this scenario.

u r logic is right. only factor is nuke however small has got startegic value attached to it. i think limited conventional war or LICO faught with ballestic missiles and cruise missiles will be tolerated/accepted by world community. but the country which uses nuke weapons first will become a pariah in the eyes of the world.

the more practical solution is to use cruise missiles in "point defence role". if the CEP of missiles can be reduced i m sure it will be as effective with out making pakistan a "pariah" state.

 

[XYON]

@GUNS-N-ROSES: Let me ask you a question, consider yourself being a CNS of the Indian Navy, would you consider barging into the economic zone with your overwhelming Naval Armada knowing that nuke tipped, air detonating missiles are aimed at the red sea-line? You will most certainly have offensive plans against a conventional munition warfare at sea against our limited naval armada, but this type of shore-line defense will most certainly make your Navy think 10000 times before it considers even a naval blockade of Karachi in case of a war.

And mind you, any war between Pakistan and India will turn into a nuke conflict. We are already a nuke state, unwillingly accepted as it may be, but being a pariah at the time of an all out war will not really matter now would it?

The proven missile deterrence that has worked under MAD for land based nuclear arsenal will most certainly work for this case too!

 

[Whiplash]

This system may be a possibility. But not in the near future. These are the primary hurdles.
Firstly a ship is a moving target. So you're going to need a maneuverable re entry vehicle on the ballistic missile. Technology only currently possessed by USA, Russia and China.
Secondly these missiles require vast arrays of advanced over the horizon radars. Again something pakistan does not possess.
And most importantly, pakistan has next to zero capability in terms of guidance satellites.
Another major issue is funding. I doubt its possible to develop all of this with the current economic situation.
Remember, I'm not saying this is not possible. With chinese assistance (Especially after the brilliant DF21) Radars can be developed, satellites can be launched. Reentry vehicle tech. cant be shared though.
But to say this tech is easily within reach because of the Ghauri and Shaheen programmes is stupidity.
Cheers and best of luck.

 

[XYON]

This system may be a possibility. But not in the near future. These are the primary hurdles.
Firstly a ship is a moving target. So you're going to need a maneuverable re entry vehicle on the ballistic missile. Technology only currently possessed by USA, Russia and China.
Secondly these missiles require vast arrays of advanced over the horizon radars. Again something pakistan does not possess.
And most importantly, pakistan has next to zero capability in terms of guidance satellites.
Another major issue is funding. I doubt its possible to develop all of this with the current economic situation.
Remember, I'm not saying this is not possible. With chinese assistance (Especially after the brilliant DF21) Radars can be developed, satellites can be launched. Reentry vehicle tech. cant be shared though.
But to say this tech is easily within reach because of the Ghauri and Shaheen programmes is stupidity.
Cheers and best of luck.

Stupidity is actually having no imagination and little tech know how!!

Of course the ships are moving. You draw a red line at sea and when the enemy armada is within the reach of that red line or over it, you fire (keeping in view the travel time and other navigational aspects). You do not need to be a PhD rocket scientist to assimilate the mechanics and when the nuke detonates in the air, you have obliteration in a 2-3 kms sq area!!! Ship can move all it wants within that dia of strike, it will still be cooked by the blast!! And you do not really need an OTH radar or satellite, you simply need some ingenious planning, relevant GPS coordinates to nearest accuracy of the CEP strike zone to develop and early warning system with the tools at hand leading to launch in case of an attack.

With a little R&D, computer simulations & trials the said system can be perfected by Pakistani scientists at NDC or NESCOM with the current knowledge & expertise base in missile technology and slight maritime modifications to the Ghauri or Shaheen platforms!!

 

[Whiplash]

You know if it were that easy countries like china wouldn't be trying so hard to make such pin point precise ASBMs.
Lets assume you have a 'small kiloton warhead' of say 25 kiloton yeild? In an aerial detonation it wont guarantee you a kill radius of more than 700-800 metres. Thats a small circle. Not to mention an uncertain one.
Considering you cant predict the ships trajectory after it crosses the 'red line' thats a pretty low kill probability. And in a scenario where no first kill implies the armada unleashes every nuke it has toward you, thats not a good thing.
And btw. How exactly do you think you're going to detect a carrier sized battle group with no OTH or sat nav? Maritime recon? Unlikely considering there're 200 km radius fighter patrols. My tech know how may not be as much as yours. Nor my imagination. But there are some very obvious flaws you refuse to see.

 

[Super Falcon]

agreed with xyon pa ji but atleast 5 to 6 diferent types of missile we need if one faills other hits the target

 

[HongWu]

China's ASBM comes in several variants. The DF-21D is the medium-range variant. There is also a short-range variant (DF-11C?). Pakistan's current SRBM like Gauri are "based on" the regular Chinese SRBMs such as DF-11 and DF-15.

Therefore, what the OP is conceiving is actually China selling its short range ASBM to Pakistan. This is not impossible but China would rather hang on tight to its "crown jewel." In a crisis situation this would change, but in peacetime there is no need. This is common practice among all countries.

In the meantime, China does offer C-803 for sale. It's equivalent to an Exocet or a Harpoon. Pakistan is not facing the US Navy (like China does) so these will be good enough against India.

 

[XYON]

China's ASBM comes in several variants. The DF-21D is the medium-range variant. There is also a short-range variant (DF-11C?). Pakistan's current SRBM like Gauri are "based on" the regular Chinese SRBMs such as DF-11 and DF-15.

Therefore, what the OP is conceiving is actually China selling its short range ASBM to Pakistan. This is not impossible but China would rather hang on tight to its "crown jewel." In a crisis situation this would change, but in peacetime there is no need. This is common practice among all countries.

In the meantime, China does offer C-803 for sale. It's equivalent to an Exocet or a Harpoon. Pakistan is not facing the US Navy (like China does) so these will be good enough against India.

My friend, if China wants to secure Gwadar Port as its future shortest supply route/ point for oil and other commodities to China, it may have to consider providing Pakistan with such defensive missile system for sea-threats!

 

[Penguin]

Since missiles have a high angle of approach compared to a cruise missile, ship defenses will also be in effective against the approaching projectile.

Are you suggesting VL SAMs and even CIWS can't fire upwards? You are aware that conventional antiship missile flight profiles include not only sea-skimming but also high-diving?

See e.g. Asraam missile, aster missile, exocet, marte, missile system - MBDA
"Survivability is the key word within Naval Air Defence. For warships to continue their primary role, it is essential that air defence for a single unit, be it large or small, a close escort or a major surface group, provides a comprehensive defence against all types of air threat, from the sea skimmer to the high diving missile (including TBMs) in addition to attack aircraft and weapon carrying UAVs."

Secondly I am all for using mini-nukes for these systems as air detonation will cover more area in a CEP zone compared to conventional explosives. Also the resulting EMP from the blast can also render other accompanying ships dead at sea as it will burn their electronics and navigation systems. Secondly the purpose of MAD is enhancement of deterrence which after all is the MAIN purpose of having such a defense system. If missile defense and MAD can work on land between Pakistan and India, it can most certainly also work in this scenario.

Not so sure. Such a move is easily countered by making very clear in advance the any such 'tactical' use of nuclear warheads will be considered a nuclear first strike against the targeted nation and will evoke a full scale nuclear retaliatory response. This is in fact the response that some corners in the US have proposed in relation to Chinese non-nuclear warhead equipped anti-ship ballistic missiles ...

 

[Whiplash]

China's ASBM comes in several variants. The DF-21D is the medium-range variant. There is also a short-range variant (DF-11C?). Pakistan's current SRBM like Gauri are "based on" the regular Chinese SRBMs such as DF-11 and DF-15.

Therefore, what the OP is conceiving is actually China selling its short range ASBM to Pakistan. This is not impossible but China would rather hang on tight to its "crown jewel." In a crisis situation this would change, but in peacetime there is no need. This is common practice among all countries.

In the meantime, China does offer C-803 for sale. It's equivalent to an Exocet or a Harpoon. Pakistan is not facing the US Navy (like China does) so these will be good enough against India.

Exocets are quite easily interceptable with the newer modern systems we've seen recently.
IMO the C-803 is more advanced than the exocet. Its operating style is quite similar to the Klub 54 and thus is very hard to intercept as compared to the exocet.
Although still interceptable on account of lack of maneuvering in the terminal stages.