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Pakistan’s ISI from the inside

Yes, I have heard it umpteen times today that this is not the same army. The generals always took a few years rest before indulging into another adventure - I would rather wait and let the time judge whether this is a changed army or not.

Just a minor correction, Kiyani didn't assist in conducting free and fair elections - he just stopped his men from rigging another elections. A huge difference if people bother to see it from this perspective.

I think what is different this time around is the continued close involvement of USA in trying to improve civil governance. Derided as it may be, I think that this influence may actually be of some benefit in terms of end results.
 
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Just a minor correction, Kiyani didn't assist in conducting free and fair elections - he just stopped his men from rigging another elections. A huge difference if people bother to see it from this perspective.

A 'minor correction', Kayani did not 'order his men to rig the elections', Army personnel have no 'proclivity to rig elections' that the COAS has to 'stop them from doing so'. Army personnel follow orders from the top.

Some generals in the past chose to intervene in politics, others, such as Asif Nawaz and Jehangir Karamat, did not. So even an analysis of all the 'Generals' of the Army does not support your contention of either the institution of the Army or its leadership somehow being prone to 'interfering in politics'. Interestingly, it has been the 'hand picked lackeys' (or perceived lackey's at least) of civilian leaders that ended up being the 'usurpers of democracy', be it Zia or Musharraf.

Yet another reason for the civilian leadership to start abiding by the principles of 'most qualified', rather than who they perceive to be 'most compliant'. Think about it, by nature an individual who is a 'lackey' or 'brown noser' has 'character flaws', and give this individual undeserved power and it may indeed come back to bite you, as it did in the case of ZA Bhutto.

Of course what happened to ZA Bhutto was perhaps 'poetic justice', in that his usurping of power, bigotry and hate-mongering against Bengalis and Ahmadis was paid back in the same coin.
 
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A 'minor correction', Kayani did not 'order his men to rig the elections', Army personnel have no 'proclivity to rig elections' that the COAS has to 'stop them from doing so'. Army personnel follow orders from the top.

Some generals in the past chose to intervene in politics, others, such as Aslam Beg and Jehangir Karamat, did not. So even an analysis of all the 'Generals' of the Army does not support your contention of either the institution of the Army or its leadership somehow being prone to 'interfering in politics'. Interestingly, it has been the 'hand picked lackeys' (or perceived lackey's at least) of civilian leaders that ended up being the 'usurpers of democracy', be it Zia or Musharraf.

Yet another reason for the civilian leadership to start abiding by the principles of 'most qualified', rather than who they perceive to be 'most compliant'. Think about it, by nature an individual who is a 'lackey' or 'brown noser' has 'character flaws', and give this individual undeserved power and it may indeed come back to bite you, as it did in the case of ZA Bhutto.

Of course what happened to ZA Bhutto was perhaps 'poetic justice', in that his usurping of power, bigotry and hate-mongering against Bengalis and Ahmadis was paid back in the same coin.

There is not doubt in the minds of those people who understand the political ambiance of Pakistan that the ISI at the behest of the army and Musharraf would have rigged the 2008 general elections massively in favour of PMLQ just as it had done in the previous elections.

The unexpected assassination of Benazir Bhutto had created a volatile situation. Sindh was burning and the unprecedented hate againt the estalbishment was at its peak. This explosive situation compelled the army generals to keep away from interferring in the politics. Kiyani recalled the military officers who were foisted by the then military dictator Musharraf on the civilian departments and he also ordered his men to stay away from politics and from the president. Therefore, he actually didn't assist in conducting free and fair elections, he just stopped his men (army officers, ISI) from rigging the 2008 general elections that was already planned.

This was my last post on this subject. Thanks for your thoughtful input, I really appreciate it.
 
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There is not doubt in the minds of those people who understand the political ambiance of Pakistan that the ISI at the behest of the army and Musharraf would have rigged the 2008 general elections massively in favour of PMLQ just as it had done in the previous elections.
That is called 'speculation' and 'conspiracy theories'.

What actually happened clearly debunks those individuals.
The unexpected assassination of Benazir Bhutto had created a volatile situation. Sindh was burning and the unprecedented hate againt the estalbishment was at its peak. This explosive situation compelled the army generals to keep away from interferring in the politics. Kiyani recalled the military officers who were foisted by the then military dictator Musharraf on the civilian departments and he also ordered his men to stay away from politics and from the president. Therefore, he actually didn't assist in conducting free and fair elections, he just stopped his men (army officers, ISI) from rigging the 2008 general elections that was already planned.
Again, complete speculation and conspiracy theories. What we know happened is that the elections were held 'free and fair'. I do not disagree that had Musharraf continued as Army Chief the chances of the elections being rigged in his favor were large, but that simply reinforces my point that it is particular 'Leaders/Generals' that resort to interfering in domestic politics, and not the institution of the Army. I will also agree that there were likely other 'General's' under Musharraf who might have supported an alleged 'rigging of the elections', but that would again reflect on Musharraf, since he 'hand picked' most of his closest advisers.

The Army leadership, since Kayani took over, has changed significantly - many of Musharraf's closest aides have left service. Those at the highest levels currently are more reflective of Kayani's selection policies, and the fact that the Army has stayed out of politics despite the PPP and Zardari popularity plummeting to extremely low levels (with the Army's popularity remaining in the high 70% to 80%), clearly supports my position that the Army under Kayani has changed significantly from the Army under Musharraf.
This was my last post on this subject. Thanks for your thoughtful input, I really appreciate it.
It was a pleasure - I don't think we are that far apart in our positions. We both agree that the Army should stay out of politics and that the current political leadership is beyond redemption, going by their actions so far. We disagree in our views of the 'Institution of the Army' vs specific 'Army leaders'.

I still maintain that the fact that the Army leadership changes regularly allows the Army to have an infusion of fresh ideas and policies, which is something severely lacking on the civilian side, dominated by dynastic politics as it is.

P.S: The COAS I meant above was Asif Nawaz, not Aslam Beg. Mixed up the names as I was typing because of the 'A'.
 
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.................... We both agree that the Army should stay out of politics and that the current political leadership is beyond redemption, going by their actions so far.........................

.... and that is why I get so despondent. So what is the realistic alternative? Either the Army is forced to interfere and the previously repeated cycle goes on once again, or there is a miraculous appearance of some hope amongst the thieves.
 
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.... and that is why I get so despondent. So what is the realistic alternative? Either the Army is forced to interfere and the previously repeated cycle goes on once again, or there is a miraculous appearance of some hope amongst the thieves.

Patience with the electorate?

Civil society and commentators focusing on educating the electorate and pressuring the politicians to reform institutions?

Sort of comes back to the point Porus made, 'change will only come with time'.

The question is whether events will overtake Pakistan before that 'change' takes place.
 
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The question is whether events will overtake Pakistan before that 'change' takes place.

See, you keep saying all the things that I worry about, so we might not be that far apart intellectually. :D
 
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Change, or else!​

Tuesday, August 02, 2011
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In the days leading up to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s speech to parliament Monday, many in the media and politics had wondered: inextricably entangled in corruption cases that reach into the highest echelons of the government hierarchy but unflinching in its disobedience of Supreme Court orders, what was the government going to do? The government did what it does best: nothing. The prime minister succeeded in disappointing the expectations raised by predictions, some of them apparently leaked by his own government, that he would cause fireworks on the floor of the house, and that the next 24 hours, according to Babar Awan, were “very important.” Instead, the prime minister appeared to deliver an address that consisted almost entirely of generalities and rhetoric, offered no new agenda and made no specific promises. Historic and path-changing it was not. The only concrete announcement was that Sohail Ahmed has been appointed Secretary Narcotics.

We were told the government has always respected and will always respect the judiciary and that it has sacrificed much to ensure its integrity; we were told the bureaucracy is one of the most important organs of the government machinery and the government has always supported and defended bureaucrats; and we were told the government is engaged in a fierce battle against corruption and nepotism. But with every word the prime minister spoke, he seemed to be digging himself deeper and deeper into the hole of contradictions. How can the government claim to stand for the bureaucracy when it will transfer a bureaucrat – i.e. Sohail Ahmed – for the simple reason of doing his job? How can it claim it has implemented the court’s orders when Zafar Qureshi and Husain Asghar have still not retaken charge of the NICL and Haj cases? How can it claim it stands against corruption when it cannot accomplish the simple task of holding a meeting of the National Assembly standing committee to take up the new anti-corruption law that will replace the National Accountability Bureau ordinance? How can it claim it has the political will to carry out accountability when the two major government organisations, NAB and the Federal Investigation Agency, that are mandated to probe corruption are in a state of utter disarray? NAB has been rendered defunct in the absence of a chairman and the government keeps seeking more and more time to appoint one, despite repeated orders from the Supreme Court. And the less said about the FIA’s inefficacy the better, given the stranglehold of political control that it has to function under.

If the government wants to be seen as part of the solution and not as part of the problems facing this country, it will have to move beyond the lilt of rhetoric and offer the detailed, convincing measures it claims it has taken. It must stop being seen as the face of unaccountability and corruption in Pakistan; it must stop creating hurdles in the face of any semblance of accountability of officials and political partners; it must stop putting the bureaucracy in the awkward position of whether to obey the court or invite the wrath of political bosses. The government needs to change its ways – or be prepared to reap the whirlwind of recoil, disgust and fury felt by millions of Pakistanis at its blatant abdication of responsibility.

Change, or else!

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Again, the problems lie not with Pakistan's 'Military and Intelligence' ( so long as they do not interfere in domestic politics) but with the current 'political class'.
 
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Hoping for change in chaotic Pakistan

Rahimullah Yusufzai
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
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The disorder that characterises present-day Pakistan was in evidence again when the simple issue of Ramazan moon-sighting generated the usual controversy and the common wish of the people to observe and celebrate religious events together remained unfulfilled. In this modern age when technology could be used to find solutions to such problems, a failure to sight the moon on the same day in Pakistan is symptomatic of the chaos prevailing in the country.

But what else is working to our satisfaction in Pakistan? There cannot be rule of law when the government itself decides to defy the judiciary and refuse to implement court verdicts. There cannot be any real accountability if the ruling elite indulge in corruption and get away with it. People cannot feel secure when the security forces and the police themselves are insecure. A politicised administration and bureaucracy cannot be expected to uphold merit.

As the government and its institutions lack credibility, ordinary people don’t feel the need to accept their writ or decisions. The Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee has been courting controversy every year on Ramazan and Shawwal moon-sightings. No real effort is made in time to find a solution to the issue. It is like crying over spilt milk on a yearly basis.

Ramazan 1432 Hijri thus began on a wrong note due to the decision by the unofficial moon-sighting committee in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa to announce the commencement of the month of fasting on Aug 1, a day ahead of the rest of the country. Clerics led by Mufti Shahabuddin Popalzai, the prayer leader at the historic Qasim Ali Khan mosque in Peshawar, must have valid reasons for doing so, because a number of people had volunteered to claim that they sighted the Ramazan moon. But who gave the authority to this private moon-sighting committee to take decisions that have impact on the lives of so many people? Why are the ulema in this unofficial committee courted by the government if they are defying the authority of the central moon-sighting body? And what is the reason that clerics and the faithful in major parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa follow the directions of this committee instead of the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee of Mufti Muneebur Rahman? There must be something wrong that a moon-sighting committee set up by the government isn’t considered credible by a sizeable section of the population in northwestern Pakistan.

There are heartbreaking stories everywhere in Pakistan. One can live with differences over Ramazan moon-sighting as we have been doing for years now, but the sight of members of the Hazara community being regularly target-killed in Quetta because they happen to be Shias, and innocent and mostly poor Pakistanis shot dead on a daily basis in Karachi due to their ethnicity is unforgivable and heartrending. There is a poignant story of grief and suffering behind every killing as women are made widows and children orphans. We get to hear only a few such stories, but Pakistan has experienced so many deaths and tragedies that our capacity to endure suffering has increased manifold. The government and the state has failed to protect its citizens and political parties, claiming to represent the people, are in league with the killers because they refuse to accept proposals to deweaponise cities such as Karachi that are awash with weapons. The political parties’ priority is to stay in power by hook or by crook, regardless of the fact that their governments in the centre and the provinces have failed on every count.

As we witnessed on the first anniversary of the floods that devastated Pakistan in July-August 2010, those affected by the disaster are still seething with anger against the government due to complaints that the authorities have been ineffective and slow to assist them in rebuilding their lives. It is sad to see uprooted families trying to build a shelter with the first instalment of Rs20,000 by pooling resources from other sources in the hope that they would eventually receive the second instalment from the government. The government, on the other hand, has been looking to international donors to provide the funds needed to compensate the flood victims. With more than 800,000 families still without permanent shelter and a million in need of food assistance as the aid group Oxfam reported recently, it is certainly going to be a gigantic task to resettle and rehabilitate the flood victims.

Equally heartrending is the plight of the internally displaced persons from the conflict areas in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Their suffering has become an old and largely forgotten story as displacement started some years ago when the military operations were launched against the militants first in Fata and then in Swat and the rest of Malakand division. IDPs from militancy-hit areas will probably remain a part of our lives for quite sometime as more military operations are in the pipeline. Meanwhile, the government’s capacity and capability to rehabilitate this category of IDPs, owing to its skewed sense of priorities, is suspect.

The suffering of the Hazara community in Quetta is not the only tragic news coming out of Balochistan. Coalminers die often in mines where safety regulations are flouted by both government departments and private owners. As these coalminers mostly belong to Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, their deaths cause pain both in Balochistan and in faraway places such as Swat, Shangla and Dir from where they come in search of livelihood. Also in Balochistan, bullet-riddled bodies continue to be found as political workers, student activists and settlers are kidnapped or target-killed. Recent media reports portrayed the decrease in insurgent attacks in Balochistan as the weakening of the separatists, but nobody mentioned the scars left on the bodies and minds of the Baloch people as a result of denial of rights and kidnapping of political activists. It isn’t that only commoners are suffering in Balochistan. Chief Minister Nawabzada Aslam Raisani felt the pain when his young nephew and Siraj Raisani’s son Hakmal Raisani was killed in a terrorist attack in Mastung. Numerous known politicians, lawyers and teachers too have been target-killed in previous incidents in Balochistan.

There are also lesser instances by Pakistani standards of our dysfunctional state. The sight of the trains breaking down and running late is hardly surprising in view of the deterioration that the Pakistan Railways has suffered over the years. But now there is no fuel to power the engines and the elderly Minister of Railways, Ghulam Ahmad Bilour, was seen on television announcing that, Inshallah (God willing), most of the trains would stop running in the coming days. His choice of words gave one the idea that he was offering a prayer before bringing the curtains down on the operations of the Pakistan Railways, an over-staffed and inefficient state organization where tales of corruption are common.

The same sorry state of affairs exists in other public-sector organisations, be it Pakistan Steel Mills or Pakistan International Airlines. Surplus staff, political appointments and mismanagement have taken their toll and pushed these and other organisations into the red. Social sectors remain ignored and the utility services being offered to consumers are poor and erratic. People are not only paying, they are willing to pay more provided they are assured regular supply of electricity, water, gas and other services.

Is there any hope that an effort would be made to turn things aroundand bring some improvements in the lives of the people? As far as the people are concerned, there isn’t much expectation from the present government if the recent poll by the Abu Dhabi Gallup Centre is to be believed. It shows that only 28 percent of Pakistanis express any confidence in this government. Besides, only 19 percent approve of the PPP leadership, including President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani. The poll found out that the military is viewed favourably by 78 percent. And if one goes by other recent public opinion polls, Imran Khan is emerging as a serious contender for power. It is possible that most Pakistanis are looking for a change and waiting for a messiah to help them cope with the seemingly insurmountable problems they are facing.

The writer is resident editor of The News in Peshawar. Email: rahim yusufzai@yahoo.com

Hoping for change in chaotic Pakistan - Rahimullah Yusufzai
 
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Is there any hope that an effort would be made to turn things aroundand bring some improvements in the lives of the people? As far as the people are concerned, there isn't much expectation from the present government if the recent poll by the Abu Dhabi Gallup Centre is to be believed. It shows that only 28 percent of Pakistanis express any confidence in this government. Besides, only 19 percent approve of the PPP leadership, including President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani. The poll found out that the military is viewed favourably by 78 percent. And if one goes by other recent public opinion polls, Imran Khan is emerging as a serious contender for power. It is possible that most Pakistanis are looking for a change and waiting for a messiah to help them cope with the seemingly insurmountable problems they are facing.
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So either the Army or IK, together or not, is where the best hope lies?

Edit: Did the idiot really say this?

the elderly Minister of Railways, Ghulam Ahmad Bilour, was seen on television announcing that, Inshallah (God willing), most of the trains would stop running in the coming days. His choice of words gave one the idea that he was offering a prayer before bringing the curtains down on the operations of the Pakistan Railways
 
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So either the Army or IK, together or not, is where the best hope lies?
A military coup would likely be considered a favorable option for the PPP leadership at this point, since they can spin the whole 'dictatorship' and 'not allowed to complete term' rhetoric to their hearts content and try and get back in power.

That leaves IK I suppose, but I am not really familiar with the TI's grass roots political machine and presence outside the urban areas of Pakistan. He would definitely have to put together a coalition. The PML-Q might join him. But first and foremost we need transparent and fair elections.
 
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A military coup would likely be considered a favorable option for the PPP leadership at this point, since they can spin the whole 'dictatorship' and 'not allowed to complete term' rhetoric to their hearts content and try and get back in power.

So, the implicit danger is that the corruption and recklessness will be intentionally raised to ever higher levels to build up illegal fortunes while daring the army to force its hand? That is a scary scenario.

That leaves IK I suppose, but I am not really familiar with the TI's grass roots political machine and presence outside the urban areas of Pakistan. He would definitely have to put together a coalition. The PML-Q might join him. But first and foremost we need transparent and fair elections.

Even after free and fair elections, IK's Achilles heel will be the need to cobble up a working coalition from the entrenched political thugs at every level.
 
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Sure, but the 'Military General's' that 'caused this mess' are gone now - what can you do about it?

The 'creations' of Zia, whether extremists or the current political class, still exist - the problem is dealing with the challenges of the PRESENT to fix things going into the future - merely reiterating the same thing again and again (Ayub, Yahya, Zia, Musharaf did this did that) does not do anything. ZA Bhutto did a lot that I would consider downright 'evil and destructive' to the State of Pakistan, but I am not out here ranting about ZA Bhutto every single opportunity I get. The man is gone, and this is not a history class - I am trying to highlight the problems Pakistan faces TODAY and how to resolve them, and my argument is that TODAY's political leadership is corrupt, dynastic and unlikely to change.

The military leadership on the other hand has changed, several times, since Zia. That is why an individual like Kayani is COAS today, and why the military of today is unlike the military under Zia, and even unlike the military under Ayub.

BTW, you are incorrect that the vast majority of our feudal politicians are the 'creation of the military'. While people like the Sharif's indeed are, the various Makhdoom's, Chaudhries etc. are mostly 'old money', whose families have existed in positions of influence for decades because of their vast land holdings. Don't blame the military for that.

Bhutto destroyed the economy through his nationalization policies, but he couldn't pass meaningful land reforms - obviously since they would have affected Bhutto's family and political lackey's as well.

So true! that is exactly the point i have been repeating again and again.. why indulge in the past?

Lets move on and look at possible solutions for current crises to take the country in better future.. but some friends of ours are acting like broken records.. stuck on past and hell-bent on illogical solutions..

The change needs to come 'politically' not 'militarily' .. it is as simple as that!
 
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I agree with you that the best service to the nation is for the Army to ensure a free and fair election, by using whatever overt and covert means at its disposal. This needs to be organized and executed on a war footing I think.

I have absolutely no hope of anything good to come from the present crop of looters and thugs of all persuasions that pass for politicians, frankly. I have openly criticized the Army many a time, but as I re-evaluate developments, I have to admit that something has to be forced, and I do so honestly. I am sure that there are enough motivated patriots left, both in and out of uniform, to make this happen. I may not see how yet, but please take that as a deficiency on my part, and not a criticism at this point.

Am i looking at a possible change?

Anyways, good to see that your approach is turning towards 'what needs to be done' instead of 'nothing is gonna happen'..

Again, If military interfere with electoral procedures, it needs to do it after an open 'referendum' of general public, held by the Supreme court, to justify Army's involvement.. otherwise these political gurus will again blame Army for acting on its own behalf.. and the bogeyman will again come out from 'under the bed'..
 
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our we could go for a hidden coup courts call the army to help and then the army installs a few technocrats into the system while it itself remains in the hidden back ground guiding these people
 
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