Frankly Pakistan needs to sit down and see what its labour and short term investment trends are to see what it can actually export competitively and sustainably.
Import substitution that you are suggesting is very slippery slope given the opportunity costs of the labour and investment that would be engaged in an insulated way from the free market (that breed inefficiencies over time).
Pakistan needs to seek to export more (with least amount of investment and maximum amount of productivity) rather than import less....because even high value imports can often be productive (i.e early in the economic chain) and might not be price inelastic as required to raise revenues and/or create the buffers needed for local production investment.
There may be an effect like you say short term (impulse of dollar supply and PKR demand) dependent on the deficit ramp (i.e what scale I.K prioritises), but you have to remember the 12 billion is not injected into the money supply immediately all at once, rather it is a base collateral to help finance Pakistan's precarious balance of payments situation.
The long term situation will depend on whether that improves (i.e will the sparks and kindling help to create a sustainable campfire), because ceterus paribus, a loan has servicing requirements and thus PKR depreciation pressure.
@Chak Bamu @Jungibaaz @Major Sam @farhan_9909
