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Pakistan Looks For U.S. Deal
By TOM WRIGHT
ISLAMABAD—Pakistan's renewed push to clinch a civilian nuclear deal with Washington threatens to further strain relations that are already tense over Islamabad's reluctance to attack Taliban havens on its soil.
Pakistan officials say they will again raise their demand for a deal—similar to one the U.S. concluded with India—during a meeting Oct. 22 in Washington headed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
Islamabad views a civilian nuclear deal with the U.S. as a key compromise to show Pakistan is on a level with its rival India in the eyes of the U.S. Such a deal would assuage fears here that Washington has any intention of dismantling Pakistan's nuclear program.
The U.S. is unlikely to give in to the demands, Pakistan officials acknowledge, adding a further level of mistrust to a relationship already bedeviled by frustration in Washington over Pakistan's failure to crack down on Taliban militants that attack U.S. troops over the border in Afghanistan.
Washington is concerned about Pakistan's previous history of proliferation and continued ramping up of its military nuclear arsenal, which it is developing as a deterrent to India, possibly with Chinese aid. It has turned down Pakistan's requests for a civilian nuclear deal in the past.
The U.S. views next week's "strategic dialogue" as key to getting Pakistan to move against militancy in return for billions of dollars in civilian and military aid. Help with civilian nuclear power, a role China currently fulfills, could help improve ties, some analysts say. A U.S. official said the issue wasn't on the official agenda for the meeting but could easily be raised.
It will be the third such meeting since March, underscoring the pivotal role relations with Pakistan plays in U.S. foreign policy.
New satellite images, taken in September and published last week by the Institute for Science and International Security, a nongovernmental U.S.-based nuclear research body, show Pakistan is racing to complete its Khushab military nuclear facility in Punjab province despite this summer's flooding, which caused billions of dollars in economic losses.
"Pakistan will always spend whatever it takes to build up as many nuclear weapons as possible" due to animosity toward India, said George Perkovich, director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S.-based think tank.
President Barack Obama will travel to India in early November on his first official visit to South Asia and any signs of engagement with Pakistan on nuclear issues ahead of that trip would likely ensure him a frosty reception in New Delhi.
Pakistan's blocking of the Obama administration's push this year at the United Nations for a treaty to ban the production of weapons-grade fissile material also has angered U.S. officials. Last week, Rose Gottemoeller, the U.S. assistant secretary of state in charge of arms control, told the U.N. that Washington's patience was running out over the slow pace of talks toward nuclear arms control.
Pakistan argues it should be allowed to build up its nuclear arsenal to counter India's larger conventional armed forces. It also says India's civilian-nuclear deal has given it an unfair advantage.
The pact allows U.S. and other suppliers of nuclear fuel for power plants to export to India. Pakistan fears that could free up domestic sources of fissile material to be turned into bombs. India, which has no history of nuclear proliferation, denies it plans to use the civilian nuclear deal to bolster its nuclear warheads.
"If we sign up to a treaty now, we would be at a permanent disadvantage to India," says Abdul Basit, a spokesman for Pakistan's foreign ministry.
Another Pakistani official said the delegation will raise the issue of a U.S. civilian nuclear deal next week but that "expectations are very low." The U.S., the Pakistani official said, "considers India its biggest ally. That's why our demand is rejected."
India and Pakistan, along with Israel, have refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and their stockpiles are among the fastest growing in the world.
Pakistan currently has about 70 to 90 nuclear warheads, and India has between 60 and 80, according to estimates published by the Federation of American Scientists, a nongovernmental group. The U.S. has 1,968 warheads but is reducing its stockpile while Pakistan and India are expanding theirs.
The ISIS, which published photos of the Khushab facility, said a third and final reactor at the site is nearing completion and could be operational by 2011. The second reactor came online in spring, the institute said.
When complete, the facility would produce enough fuel for 10 missiles a year, or about half of Pakistan's total annual nuclear-weapon production capacity, said David Albright, president of ISIS.
While these developments are newly public, the U.S. government has long been keeping tabs on the reactor's progress. "These issues have been known for years," said a U.S. counterproliferation official. "This isn't news to the U.S. government."
Pakistan's increased ability to produce plutonium—which is more potent than uranium and can be packed into smaller bombs—could boost its ability to develop longer-range cruise missiles with nuclear warheads, he added. Mr. Basit declined to comment on Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.
China has stepped up civilian nuclear cooperation with Pakistan in an effort to balance the U.S. support for India. In February, Beijing signed an agreement with Pakistan to build two 300-megawatt nuclear power plants and last month unveiled plans for a one-gigawatt plant.
The U.S. has opposed these deals, saying they are against Nuclear Suppliers Group rules, which ban the selling of nuclear technology to nations that haven't signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The U.S. persuaded others in the 46-member group, which China joined in 2004, to give a waiver to India for its civilian nuclear deal. The U.S. State Department in July told lawmakers it would vote against such an exemption for Pakistan.
Some analysts argue a U.S.-Pakistan civilian nuclear deal with adequate safeguards would reward the country for improved security of its nuclear weapons and could help foster better relations with Washington. With U.S. help, Pakistan has in recent years increased safeguards to make sure its nuclear weapons don't end up in the hand of Islamist militants.
But concerns remain. A report in April by Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs found Pakistan's stockpiles faced "immense" threats of theft "from nuclear insiders with extremist sympathies, al Qaeda or Taliban outsider attacks, and a weak state."
In India, Pakistan's weapons buildup is widely viewed as a security risk. "How do you ensure the weapons don't fall into the wrong hands?" asks Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Center for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank.
The father of Pakistan's nuclear program, A.Q. Khan, admitted in 2004 to selling weapons technology to Libya, Iran and North Korea. He later recanted his confession, saying it was given under duress.
Pakistan Looks For U.S. Deal - WSJ.com
By TOM WRIGHT
ISLAMABAD—Pakistan's renewed push to clinch a civilian nuclear deal with Washington threatens to further strain relations that are already tense over Islamabad's reluctance to attack Taliban havens on its soil.
Pakistan officials say they will again raise their demand for a deal—similar to one the U.S. concluded with India—during a meeting Oct. 22 in Washington headed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
Islamabad views a civilian nuclear deal with the U.S. as a key compromise to show Pakistan is on a level with its rival India in the eyes of the U.S. Such a deal would assuage fears here that Washington has any intention of dismantling Pakistan's nuclear program.
The U.S. is unlikely to give in to the demands, Pakistan officials acknowledge, adding a further level of mistrust to a relationship already bedeviled by frustration in Washington over Pakistan's failure to crack down on Taliban militants that attack U.S. troops over the border in Afghanistan.
Washington is concerned about Pakistan's previous history of proliferation and continued ramping up of its military nuclear arsenal, which it is developing as a deterrent to India, possibly with Chinese aid. It has turned down Pakistan's requests for a civilian nuclear deal in the past.
The U.S. views next week's "strategic dialogue" as key to getting Pakistan to move against militancy in return for billions of dollars in civilian and military aid. Help with civilian nuclear power, a role China currently fulfills, could help improve ties, some analysts say. A U.S. official said the issue wasn't on the official agenda for the meeting but could easily be raised.
It will be the third such meeting since March, underscoring the pivotal role relations with Pakistan plays in U.S. foreign policy.
New satellite images, taken in September and published last week by the Institute for Science and International Security, a nongovernmental U.S.-based nuclear research body, show Pakistan is racing to complete its Khushab military nuclear facility in Punjab province despite this summer's flooding, which caused billions of dollars in economic losses.
"Pakistan will always spend whatever it takes to build up as many nuclear weapons as possible" due to animosity toward India, said George Perkovich, director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S.-based think tank.
President Barack Obama will travel to India in early November on his first official visit to South Asia and any signs of engagement with Pakistan on nuclear issues ahead of that trip would likely ensure him a frosty reception in New Delhi.
Pakistan's blocking of the Obama administration's push this year at the United Nations for a treaty to ban the production of weapons-grade fissile material also has angered U.S. officials. Last week, Rose Gottemoeller, the U.S. assistant secretary of state in charge of arms control, told the U.N. that Washington's patience was running out over the slow pace of talks toward nuclear arms control.
Pakistan argues it should be allowed to build up its nuclear arsenal to counter India's larger conventional armed forces. It also says India's civilian-nuclear deal has given it an unfair advantage.
The pact allows U.S. and other suppliers of nuclear fuel for power plants to export to India. Pakistan fears that could free up domestic sources of fissile material to be turned into bombs. India, which has no history of nuclear proliferation, denies it plans to use the civilian nuclear deal to bolster its nuclear warheads.
"If we sign up to a treaty now, we would be at a permanent disadvantage to India," says Abdul Basit, a spokesman for Pakistan's foreign ministry.
Another Pakistani official said the delegation will raise the issue of a U.S. civilian nuclear deal next week but that "expectations are very low." The U.S., the Pakistani official said, "considers India its biggest ally. That's why our demand is rejected."
India and Pakistan, along with Israel, have refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and their stockpiles are among the fastest growing in the world.
Pakistan currently has about 70 to 90 nuclear warheads, and India has between 60 and 80, according to estimates published by the Federation of American Scientists, a nongovernmental group. The U.S. has 1,968 warheads but is reducing its stockpile while Pakistan and India are expanding theirs.
The ISIS, which published photos of the Khushab facility, said a third and final reactor at the site is nearing completion and could be operational by 2011. The second reactor came online in spring, the institute said.
When complete, the facility would produce enough fuel for 10 missiles a year, or about half of Pakistan's total annual nuclear-weapon production capacity, said David Albright, president of ISIS.
While these developments are newly public, the U.S. government has long been keeping tabs on the reactor's progress. "These issues have been known for years," said a U.S. counterproliferation official. "This isn't news to the U.S. government."
Pakistan's increased ability to produce plutonium—which is more potent than uranium and can be packed into smaller bombs—could boost its ability to develop longer-range cruise missiles with nuclear warheads, he added. Mr. Basit declined to comment on Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.
China has stepped up civilian nuclear cooperation with Pakistan in an effort to balance the U.S. support for India. In February, Beijing signed an agreement with Pakistan to build two 300-megawatt nuclear power plants and last month unveiled plans for a one-gigawatt plant.
The U.S. has opposed these deals, saying they are against Nuclear Suppliers Group rules, which ban the selling of nuclear technology to nations that haven't signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The U.S. persuaded others in the 46-member group, which China joined in 2004, to give a waiver to India for its civilian nuclear deal. The U.S. State Department in July told lawmakers it would vote against such an exemption for Pakistan.
Some analysts argue a U.S.-Pakistan civilian nuclear deal with adequate safeguards would reward the country for improved security of its nuclear weapons and could help foster better relations with Washington. With U.S. help, Pakistan has in recent years increased safeguards to make sure its nuclear weapons don't end up in the hand of Islamist militants.
But concerns remain. A report in April by Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs found Pakistan's stockpiles faced "immense" threats of theft "from nuclear insiders with extremist sympathies, al Qaeda or Taliban outsider attacks, and a weak state."
In India, Pakistan's weapons buildup is widely viewed as a security risk. "How do you ensure the weapons don't fall into the wrong hands?" asks Brahma Chellaney, a professor at the Center for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank.
The father of Pakistan's nuclear program, A.Q. Khan, admitted in 2004 to selling weapons technology to Libya, Iran and North Korea. He later recanted his confession, saying it was given under duress.
Pakistan Looks For U.S. Deal - WSJ.com
