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Pakistan, Geopolitics and Terrorism

TankMan

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This is my entry for the writing contest, posting it here since I can't post in the Seniors' Cafe.
@Slav Defence

Pakistan, Geopolitics and Terrorism

Lessons from the past, their significance and their application to the future

As of today, Pakistan faces a variety of massive challenges, including but not limited to terrorism, poverty, illiteracy, instability, corruption and religious,sectarian and ethnic divide- all these issues are remarkably intertwined, influencing eachother and creating a complex web, turning this myriad of issues into a massive and destructive nexus. The issue of terrorism is one of the more prominent and recent manifestations of the aforementioned web.

Terrorism, as portrayed by the 'international community', is (ostensibly) an issue of evil against good, and has been so ever since the fateful events of September 11th, 2001 - and even before that, but with less certainty.
On the other hand, Pakistanis were bewildered by the inception of this 'terrorism'. In the eyes of many, it was legitimate resistance to an evil Western hegemony.

Generally, such contrast in perception is not necessarily a negative or 'wrong' aspect - but when it blinds people to the reality, especially one that involves innocent lives hanging in the balance - it certainly is a problem.

A Shocking Crime
On 16th December, 2014, seven individuals assaulted the Army Public School situated on Warsak Road in Peshawar. The school was one of the many branches of the military-run APSACS, and it is where the children of military officials studied. The perpetrators, masquerading as Frontier Corps officers, gained entrance and began indiscriminately firing at everything and anything. Reportedly, they went so far as to burn a member of the faculty alive.

The Unscrupulous Initiative
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for this devastatingly brutal attack. Their narrative being that the Pakistani Military has killed their children (during the recent military operations) and that the motive was to take revenge and send a message. The presence of a vast network of militants is evident, as the militants were able to procure FC uniforms, along with a vehicle that had been stolen from Islamabad. Clearly, the abysmal law and order situation in the country has allowed this network of militant groups to operate with relative ease.

Few Individuals
One can not even begin to comprehend the depravity required to knowingly, willingly and so 'enthusiastically' participate in such an abominable act, but an understanding of their ideology and narrative is imperative. Some of the seven men were apparently foreigners, presumably from the central Asian region. Their background and details are, as is expected in such situations, rare and generally dubious. However, they were archetypal murderers. Cold, accustomed to violence and seemingly well-trained and/or experienced - clearly manifestations of the perpetual violence in the region.

The Blessing of More
Militant groups, however despicable, serve important purposes in the eyes of some. While there is an abundance of parroted allegations against Pakistan regarding 'strategic assets' and the use of proxy warfare, the 'business' dimension encompassing a myriad of financial involvement remains mostly obscure. Militants are apt to be utilized by highly profitable and omnipresent criminal enterprises, a prime example being the drug trade, particularly raw opium, sometimes further 'refined' into heroin. In such a package, the amount of potential stakeholders in this militancy is massive, with customers ranging from loathed criminals to esteemed politicians from all over the globe - the Taliban needn't look far for funding.

Religious extremism, or, to be precise, religious politics, plays an additional, crucial part - recruits. A disgusting corruption of religious ideals serves as 'moral' justification, along with being the primary source of obedient recruits, unquestioning in their delusions of doing God's work. Their narrative is based around a premise of hegemonical powers threatening the sanctity of their religion, and an obligation to resist that. This grants them the ability to instantly discredit anyone who ideologically challenges them by dubbing them 'puppets of the west'.
This narrative is proliferated by unethical clerics and gives them considerable political strength through the loyalty of their religious devotees.

Passive Acquiescence
The modern Taliban are disparate from their origins; a resistance movement against the Soviet invasion, these people were originally percieved to be brave warriors defending their homeland - a narrative originally backed by the US in its improvident and multifaceted opposition of the Soviet Union.

However, while the US posseses a remarkable ability of justifying its frequently hypocritical and rapidly changing foreign policy, turning allies into enemies and enemies into allies in minutes (disturbingly reminiscent of 'The Ministry of Truth' in Orwell's 1984), Pakistan does not. Consequently, a significant portion of the population ended up opposing Musharaf's new stance and Pakistan's participation in the War on Terror. This, in turn, allowed the TTP to rise.

The people of FATA, the Tribal Agencies and a good portion of the KPK (formerly NWFP) province's population believed them to be the same brave Islamic warriors they used to hear stories about not so long ago. Some supported them. The majority, however, remained in a state of passive acquiescence; allowing an extremist narrative and network to spread without much opposition.
_______
''A shocking crime was committed on the unscrupulous initiative of few individuals, with the blessing of more, and amid the passive acquiescence of all.''
- Cornelius Tacitus

Origins and Differences
While the TTP is usually associated with the Afghan Taliban, a distinction must be made. Both groups have similar origins and are usually considered to be comprised of splinter groups of the 'original' Taliban, or the 'Mujahideen' force that once fought against the Soviets. However, the TTP clearly has different political goals, leaders and supporters. The Indo-Pak proxy war must be taken into account here, as the Afghan Taliban (formerly supported by Pakistan) have made considerable efforts to distance themselves from the TTP, which is clearly against the Pakistani Military. Thus, despite claims of 'sympathy for eachother' on the basis of 'Islam', the two factions are on opposite sides.

This was made clear when the TTP executed the man credited as the 'father of the Taliban', Retired Col. Amir Sultan (Alias 'Colonel Imam'), despite his support of the Afghan Taliban and their alleged protest against it. The TTP's brutal opposition of the Pakistani Military makes it apt for use by India, just as the Afghan Taliban were once apt for use by Pakistan. This destructive web of regional politics and proxy warfare can be cited as the 'roots' of the terrorist 'tree'.

Terror: A new Way of War?
As the concept of Nuclear Deterrence and Mutually Assured Destruction has greatly limited the military capabilities of nation-states, the use of proxies and militants have become a staple in geopolitical conflicts since the beginning of the Cold War. Examples include the conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cuba, Nicaragua and countless others.

This continued usage of militant proxies, both before and after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, has caused countless problems and new conflicts. The main issue here being that militants can not be controlled effectively due to their highly decentralized nature and unconventional tactics and strategies. Additionally, they do not abide by any forms of international law or regulations and are not accountable to anyone (unlike states and their armies, which are generally accountable to their population to some extent), greatly increasing the margin for collateral damage and human rights violations.

Despite the flaws, proxy warfare is considered by some to be a viable alternative to full-scale military conflict. However, facts have shown that proxy warfare generally does degenerate into full-scale warfare, civil wars and/or violent revolutions - either way, massive casualties are to be expected.

Mistakes
Clearly, creating such militants in the first place was the biggest mistake and the 'original sin'. The US, aiming to counter Soviet influence, eagerly organized, trained and funded these 'brave freedom-fighters'. Pakistan, being caught in one of the flashpoints of the Cold War and with Soviet-backed India being its primary opposition, was naturally inclined to align itself with the US - resulting in Pakistani territory, resources and manpower facilitating this mistake.

The militants that were created as a result of this endeavor were dangerous; while some were indeed freedom fighters, they were instantly discarded as soon as the USSR was defeated and left behind no 'heir'. That 'power vacuum' was filled by radical ''religious'' extremists, eventually building up to the events of 9/11 and the US invasion - the US fought its own creation for over thirteen years, plunging the entire region into even more instability.

Lessons

A simple glance at Syria's current condition would show that the US has learned none. Putting short-term political interests above all, funding and arming so-called 'moderate terrorists' - it all reeks of lessons not learned.

Moving on - What now?
Despite the tragic event of 16th December supposedly 'awakening' the Pakistani nation, superficial debates about matters such as the death penalty have been raging on, hindering progress. Militarily, progress is being made - but we're lagging on the other, more important, ideological and civilian front. A thorough and united effort is required to eliminate dangerous narratives and ideologies. Sectarian and political agendas are the path to destruction and must be avoided.

On a governmental level, a proper framework needs to be applied in a co-ordinated manner, preferably one that includes these four points comprising the NICE framework.

-Negotiations with tribes/fighters willing to negotiate, eliminating them from the terrorism equation and preferably using them as assets for further action

-Improving relations with the relatively peaceful people (i.e civilians living in the highly affected areas including FATA and parts of Balochistan) to eliminate the Taliban support base; providing education and work being one of the main steps here.

-Conduct military operations against those unwilling to negotiate (such as the Taliban themselves or any hardline supporters) ; surgical strikes and smaller-scale Law Enforcement operations would be instrumental to this effort

-Ensure that the areas are given attention in the long-term to prevent any terrorism issues from arising again.

Most of the aforementioned framework has been implemented to some extent but the execution was barely co-ordinated, the military being mostly on its own with little support from the federal and provincial governments. However, steps are being taken here - the latest 'action plan' that has been approved by the government is supposed to be the answer to this.

On a civilian/social level, the issue of terrorism must not be used to defame other sects, ethnicities or political entities. That will discredit the cause and be counterproductive. Instead, people must rise above these petty issues and face the problem head on. Fight the terrorists, both physically and ideologically - answering their arguments, educating people about religion and exposing the false narrative used by the TTP and other militant groups. Obviously, this will require a good amount of support from the government, which must take steps such as prosecuting hate-speech and the endorsement of extremist ideology while regulating religious education, specifically the madrassa system.

Those are essential steps that are, alarmingly, not even being considered on a governmental level. If those issues, narrative and ideology, aren't tackled, terrorists will continuously spawn and fight. The geopolitical atmosphere may not change for a long time - citing it as the 'root cause' and trying to improve it is a misguided approach. Instead of trying to change global politics to suit us, we must change ourselves so as to not be negatively affected by it.

As the adage goes, ''It's easier to put on shoes than to carpet the whole world.''
Pakistan, as a nation, must put on shoes - for the world is a rough surface.
 
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Wonderful, excellent writeup:D
Please mention all TTAs and TTCs to see their review.
 
@TankMan ,

A very well written piece that looks into the psychology of terrorism , and the facets in how terrorism influences not only civil government of Pakistan, but the people who are subject to such depravity. That said, it should be appreciated by international analysts and researchers of the struggle the Pakistani people and their elected officials in the Pakistani Government -- have been dealing with this cancer --- terrorism. It is apparent that this struggle should be considered and more international effort and support should be given to Pakistan's Government, especially its Defense Department -- in eradicating this threat. Secondarily, I would like to add that in addition to surgical military strikes, humanitarian aid should be increased in affected areas of FATA, Baloch regions. The increase in provision of medical aid, education, and all other basic civil resources should be guaranteed to -- to better the standard of living for these affected areas in Northwest Pakistan.
 
@Nihonjin1051 Thank you for the compliments
Secondarily, I would like to add that in addition to surgical military strikes, humanitarian aid should be increased in affected areas of FATA, Baloch regions. The increase in provision of medical aid, education, and all other basic civil resources should be guaranteed to -- to better the standard of living for these affected areas in Northwest Pakistan.
I agree, these are essential points I should have discussed - I was really focused on the ideological aspect and forgot to add the 'NICE framework', which is basically what you're saying here. Will edit the OP.

-Negotiate with tribes/militants willing to negotiate, eliminate them from the terrorism equation and use those who are willing to help as assets
-Improve relations with the relatively peaceful people to eliminate the Taliban support base (providing education and work being one of the main steps here)
-Conduct military operations against those unwilling to negotiate (such as the Taliban themselves or any hardline supporters)
-Ensure that the area is given attention in the long-term to prevent any terrorism issues from arising again.
 
@Nihonjin1051 Thank you for the compliments

I agree, these are essential points I should have discussed - I was really focused on the ideological aspect and forgot to add the 'NICE framework', which is basically what you're saying here. Will edit the OP.

-Negotiate with tribes/militants willing to negotiate, eliminate them from the terrorism equation and use those who are willing to help as assets
-Improve relations with the relatively peaceful people to eliminate the Taliban support base (providing education and work being one of the main steps here)
-Conduct military operations against those unwilling to negotiate (such as the Taliban themselves or any hardline supporters)
-Ensure that the area is given attention in the long-term to prevent any terrorism issues from arising again.

@TankMan , I really appreciate your acronym and point by point emphasis on community building. While I support and applaud the hard work, sacrifices of the Pakistan Armed Forces in combating Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar e Islam, and Tehreek e Nafaz e Shariat e Mohammadi, and Al Qaeda , shear military force alone cannot and will not stabilize the wider population in the Northwest of Pakistan. As you stated, integral to continued and long lasting peace on Pakistan's northwestern frontier is to rebuild, rehabilitate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa --- basic amenities such as ease access to water, electricity, and most importantly, JOBS --- work is essential to increase the standard of living in this region. In fact, it is this low income and poor standard of living in FATA and in the Khyber that has allowed these terrorist groups to recruit and influence the poor in the region -- what other choices do they have when they're already in destitution ? IN this regard, Pakistan's Government can learn how the Philippine Government were able to crush their own Communist Insurgency with HUK Rebels in the early 1950s; VICTORY was assured through a dualist approach: 1) surgical strikes and a robust military campaign and 2) win-their-hearts campaign by increasing humanitarian aid to dispossessed peoples --- thus negating the possible support base for the rebels. As standard of living increases in FATA, extremist tendency should decrease. Inshallah.

Pakistan can do this. There must be, for one, greater security and patrols in the Pakistani-Afghani border as well as between Pakistani and Chinese borders -- to ensure that no foreign elements come into Pakistan and cause unwanted agitation.
 
@TankMan , I really appreciate your acronym and point by point emphasis on community building. While I support and applaud the hard work, sacrifices of the Pakistan Armed Forces in combating Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar e Islam, and Tehreek e Nafaz e Shariat e Mohammadi, and Al Qaeda , shear military force alone cannot and will not stabilize the wider population in the Northwest of Pakistan. As you stated, integral to continued and long lasting peace on Pakistan's northwestern frontier is to rebuild, rehabilitate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa --- basic amenities such as ease access to water, electricity, and most importantly, JOBS --- work is essential to increase the standard of living in this region. In fact, it is this low income and poor standard of living in FATA and in the Khyber that has allowed these terrorist groups to recruit and influence the poor in the region -- what other choices do they have when they're already in destitution ? IN this regard, Pakistan's Government can learn how the Philippine Government were able to crush their own Communist Insurgency with HUK Rebels in the early 1950s; VICTORY was assured through a dualist approach: 1) surgical strikes and a robust military campaign and 2) win-their-hearts campaign by increasing humanitarian aid to dispossessed peoples --- thus negating the possible support base for the rebels. As standard of living increases in FATA, extremist tendency should decrease. Inshallah.

Pakistan can do this. There must be, for one, greater security and patrols in the Pakistani-Afghani border as well as between Pakistani and Chinese borders -- to ensure that no foreign elements come into Pakistan and cause unwanted agitation.
I have edited the OP to include some of these points, thank you for the feedback.

You are correct about all this - that point about the HUK Insurgency was great, I wish I had looked at it while writing earlier. It gives some really good insights and I'm having a read through the US Army Military History center's report on it The Hukbalahap Insurrection: A Case Study of a Successful Anti-Insurgency Operation in the Philippines

However, I realized that there is one major difference between the Huks and Pakistan's current insurgency - their ideological basis was different. The Huk rebellion was political and based on a socialistic/communist economic ideology, which isn't as potent or dangerous as the religious extremism being used by the Taliban etc in Pakistan. That's why Pakistan will have to focus a lot more on the ideological aspect than the Philippines had to. That makes the 'win-their hearts campaign' even more important.

I agree with the importance of improving living conditions and providing facilities, 100% needs to be done.
As standard of living increases in FATA, extremist tendency should decrease. Inshallah.
Inshallah.
 
@TankMan , well written! :tup:

However, you said:
Lessons
A simple glance at Syria's current condition would show that the US has learned none. Putting short-term political interests above all, funding and arming so-called 'moderate terrorists' - it all reeks of lessons not learned.
When will the Pakistan Establishment treat all terrorists alike? But unfortunately, the 'good' terrorists that are treated as 'strategic assets' like the LeT, JeM etc will continue to flourish, many of whom have joined the ranks of the 'bad' terrorists that fight against the writ of the state.

All countries - India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran blame each other for sponsoring terror and so must sit down to collectively act against terrorism. Until there is complete cooperation, it will be more of the same. In fact the situation can go from bad to worse. Would a joint mechanism work? It must, as peace is what we owe to our future generations.
 
@TankMan , well written! :tup:

However, you said:

When will the Pakistan Establishment treat all terrorists alike? But unfortunately, the 'good' terrorists that are treated as 'strategic assets' like the LeT, JeM etc will continue to flourish, many of whom have joined the ranks of the 'bad' terrorists that fight against the writ of the state.

All countries - India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran blame each other for sponsoring terror and so must sit down to collectively act against terrorism. Until there is complete cooperation, it will be more of the same. In fact the situation can go from bad to worse. Would a joint mechanism work? It must, as peace is what we owe to our future generations.
Look, the issue with this whole 'strategic assets' and good/bad terrorists issue is that

Firstly, the allegations are generally either baseless or the base is too classified to actually reveal - so we can't really talk about it in the way we can discuss the US's actions; who openly stated it was supporting 'moderate terrorists'; which is why I used it as an example ; otherwise, my comments in that part are fully applicable to the Pakistan 'Establishment' if it does engage in the same activities.

Secondly, as you said, the countries will just keep blaming eachother. Because of the geopolitical element, they believe they will have to continue such activities for national security. If Pakistan, for example, abandons Islamic Extremists (as it supposedly already has done), it will have to use another group like Nationalist separatists (e.g Kashmiris) to counter India's activities with the Baloch insurgency.

It's a perpetual proxy war and all this comes under the issue of Terror becoming a new mode of warfare, which, unfortunately, it has. Like I said in the OP, trying to solve the geopolitical issues is impractical and a misguided approach. Instead, Pakistan needs to make itself less vulnerable to such militants and proxy warfare. If Pakistan wasn't vulnerable to it, It wouldn't have to counter it by using proxies of its own. That's the closest we can realistically get to peace in this case.
 
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