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Pakistan faces default risk without IMF loan: Moody's

Hope it defaults as it's surely headed towards it.
Unlikely. They will scrounge somethings up and crawl on their belly without defaulting. With remittances and some export earnings, they can import essentials as long as international debtors are willing to rollover.
 

Pakistan faces default risk without IMF loan: Moody's​





Signage is seen outside the Moodys Corporation headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 12, 2021. — Reuters
Signage is seen outside the Moody's Corporation headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 12, 2021. — Reuters

  • Pakistan financing options beyond June are "highly uncertain": Moody's
  • Rating agency says reserves enough to cover only one month of imports.
  • 'Engagement with IMF beyond June will support additional financing'.




Moody's Investor Service has warned that without an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme Pakistan could default as its financing options beyond June are "uncertain", Bloomberg reported.
“We consider that Pakistan will meet its external payments for the remainder of this fiscal year ending in June," sovereign analyst with the ratings company in Singapore Grace Lim said.
“However, Pakistan’s financing options beyond June are highly uncertain. Without an IMF programme, Pakistan could default given its very weak reserves.”
Rising political tensions ahead of elections due this year are adding to the risk of a delay in the loan, as former prime minister Imran Khan is showing no signs of backing down against the government.
The coalition government is struggling to revive a $6.5 billion IMF bailout programme, which had stalled after the government failed to meet some loan conditions.
Dollar bonds due in 2031 were indicated at 34.58 cents on the dollar on Tuesday near the lowest since November. The rupee has been trading near a record low.
"An engagement with the IMF beyond June would support additional financing from other multilateral and bilateral partners, which could reduce default risk," Lim, in an emailed response to questions, said.
It should be noted that Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves — which stand at $4.5 billion — remain extremely low and sufficient to cover only about one month of imports, she said.
According to S&P Global Ratings, Pakistan’s gross external financing needs as a proportion of current-account receipts plus usable reserves is estimated to rise to 139.5% in fiscal year 2024 from 133% in 2023.
“We consider the IMF programme to be a foundation for important fiscal policy reforms,” said Andrew Wood, a sovereign analyst at S&P in Singapore.
“Agreement on the current review cycle could also coalesce more confidence for other bilateral and multilateral lenders to Pakistan.”
Dear IMF, every dollar that you pay to "Pakistan" only helps the corrupts of this country to stay in power for longer period of time. Actually the money you lended to Pakistan should be paid by the people who bought luxury cars villas with this money, aka corrupt elite of Pakistan.
Pakistan will not pay you back. Go get your money from the people you lended. People of Pakistan never benefited with that bribery of yours.
 
Unlikely. They will scrounge somethings up and crawl on their belly without defaulting. With remittances and some export earnings, they can import essentials as long as international debtors are willing to rollover.
The US will bail out Pakistan through the IMF as it did this time. Yet why weren't conditions requiring a reduction in defense budget or nuclear weapons production forced upon Pakistan whereas Sri Lanka had to reduce the size of its military?

The reason is simple, the US wants Pakistan to remain as a buffer state to India and help contain it. Barely surviving and never independent, yet with guns and nukes always pointed at New Delhi.
 
The US will bail out Pakistan through the IMF as it did this time. Yet why weren't conditions requiring a reduction in defense budget or nuclear weapons production forced upon Pakistan whereas Sri Lanka had to reduce the size of its military?

The reason is simple, the US wants Pakistan to remain as a buffer state to India and help contain it. Barely surviving and never independent, yet with guns and nukes always pointed at New Delhi.
How does anyone know that has not happened? An easy test: just have someone observe the number of military exercises, flying hours on military aircraft, helicopter, navy ships etc., and compare it to normal times. if there is a slowdown in tempo, it naturally means the military is spinning down. Eventually, a military that doesn't stay sharp, withers away. Exhibit #1. Russia.

If they are trying to save diesel, you can stop worrying about nuclear weapons production.
 
How does anyone know that has not happened? An easy test: just have someone observe the number of military exercises, flying hours on military aircraft, helicopter, navy ships etc., and compare it to normal times. if there is a slowdown in tempo, it naturally means the military is spinning down. Eventually, a military that doesn't stay sharp, withers away. Exhibit #1. Russia.

If they are trying to save diesel, you can stop worrying about nuclear weapons production.
The slowdown in military activity already was happening before the bailout. Bajwa was infatuated with the idea of peace with India. Some say Imran Khan opposing that was one of the many things that sent Bajwa over the edge.

However, if the IMF had mandated reduction, we would have known like we did for Sri Lanka or the other harsher conditions placed on Pakistan. Also, the military has pushed back on IMF agreements that threatened its economic interests such as the shared bank account for government institutions, meant to reduce corruption.
 

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