Punjab expects record wheat yield
LAHORE: The Punjab Agriculture Department expects 17.9 million tons of wheat production this year. But these are initial figures, and the department thinks they can go up to 18.3 to 18.5 million tons.
According to figures finalised by departments Crop Reporting Wing, the province will have a healthy, possibly record, crop if weather does not hit it at the final stage. The official optimism is based on early sowing, timely rain and extended use of pesticides.
Arif Nadeem, newly-inducted agriculture secretary, says for the first time 71 per cent crop was sown from Oct 25 to Nov 30 -- the ideal time for sowing which will have a positive impact on the yield.
Apart from early sowing, the official optimism is also generated from timely rains, which lessened the effects of water shortage throughout the wheat maturing season.
Similarly, the use of pesticides also remained exceptionally high at 69 per cent, which has saved the crop from many diseases to bring it to a successful conclusion. Though urea crisis plagued the better part of the season, its final off-take did not show any substantial decrease -- keeping the hopes of a better crop alive.
The only negative factor during the entire season was the low consumption of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP). But with so many positive factors, this single factor would not make much of the dent, he said.
Weather also remained by and large helpful, with a fog-free January and cool March. This year, there were no usual foggy weeks, and the crop grew up under the full sunlight. The temperature in the month of March also remained under 28 centigrade, which was also helpful for the crop, he said.
The latest rain spell has created some doubts in the minds of department officials, says another employee of the department.
One could only hope that strong winds of March are not followed by hail storms in April. Next three to four days, with forecasts of more rains, will be crucial for the health of the crop. But, they would not be able to make any major dent in the crop if weather does not turn out to be wildly crazy. But till then, one could only pray for better weather and good results, said the optimist official.
Farmers doubt official claims
Farmers, on the other hand, hotly disputed official claims on wheat production, and said on Wednesday that it would not, in any case, go beyond 18 million tons some 1.4 million tons less than the target.
They also claimed price crash of Rs60 to Rs90 per 40 kilogramme in the southern belt, and asked the Food Department to start procuring wheat rather than distributing gunny bags only and delaying actual procurement till mid-April in southern Punjab.
In a meeting of the central executive of the AgriForum, the participants said they had conducted a survey of 10 districts in the southern part where price ranged from Rs860 to Rs890, with no where price touching official Rs950 per 40kg.
With a drop of 75 per cent in di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), cut in urea consumption by 16 per cent, potash fertiliser by 40 per cent, water shortage of 35 per cent and diesel selling at Rs70 per litre, no one knows how the official sources can claim a record crop in the province, said Ibrahim Mughal from the AgriForum.
The forum survey of 10 districts also revealed that average 100 grain weight had gone down by seven to eight per cent in these districts, he said. Under these circumstances, only chronic optimism or ignorance could make claims of high yields, he said.
He said the Crop Reporting Wing of the Agriculture Department was in the habit of making tall claims till the end, received official praises, and furnished technical details of failing to achieve yield targets. The pattern has been too well-entrenched to leave any room for optimism, he said.
The country had set a target of 25 million tons, and Punjab, a producer of 80 per cent of the crop, had to produce over 19 million tons to meet the national target, says Rao Afsar from Rajanpur. But, Punjab could not go beyond 18 million tons, taking the national figure down to 23 million tons, he said. The country thus faced a shortfall of two million tons as far as its own target was concerned and at least one million tons as far as its national consumption was concerned, he said.
The carry over stocks might save its from importing any wheat, but it is time for some SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunities and threats) analysis about how the country, even after sowing wheat on record 22 million acres, is going to miss the target, he demanded.
The pesticides consumption has actually gone down to eight per cent this year, and might be one of the reasons for low production, says Bilal Isreal a wheat grower. The officials of the Crop Reporting Wing must have differentiated between fodder and wheat crop, he said. The lush green fields of fodder could be good for the country but not for wheat. Additional vegetative growth in wheat was counter-productive and would affect the final tally, he said.
Some of the rains were timely, but others were not as is the case with current wet spell and have not proven to the beneficial for the crop, he said and added: The farmers are not as optimistic as the Crop Reporting Wing.
The Food Department agreed to start providing gunny bags to farmers in southern Punjab but would start buying the wheat by mid-April, says Farooq Bajwa of the AgriForum. No doubt that mere distribution of bags would stabilise the price on higher side, but the department should start actual wheat procurement to send a strong message to market that it was there to keep the price at official level, he said.
DAWN.COM | - Punjab | Punjab expects record wheat yield
